Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,410 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [rishane
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

    Reading Coorey’s article I am transported back to Rudd’s removal and his claim that he didn’t want the party to lurch to the right. We then had an avalanche of lefties claiming the rightward Rudd as their own and deriding Julia Gillard as a puppet of de Bruyn and Farrell. But apparently we now have Rudd who will just keep everything as is, including trying to reach a regional solution with Malaysia. ]

    And the irony, about the only useful fact to come out of the 4C job, was that de Bruyn supported Rudd.

    Over at LP they took those events very seriously, believing Rudd had been knifed for right wing agenda items. Some have never forgiven JG (eg TP here, too). The social inclusion policies introduced by Gillard, which open up some return to work options for disadvantaged people, were slammed before all the details were out as being Howard lite even though they were nothing of the kind.

    The irony is, they didn’t lose a leftist hero at all. A few have softened to JG in recent times, appalled at the media attacks and admiring the PM’s resilience.

  2. [Hah, the only chance Labor has is to propagate my BISONs, which the Gillard Team has been doing the last few months.

    http://afrankview.net/2012/02/australias-great-bisons-beautiful-inspiring-set-of-numbers/ ]

    And it has expanded a fair bit since I last viewed, Finns. Great work from you and Frank. Let’s hope the pollies refer to it more often.

    By the way, Jenauthor had a very interesting performance measure posted the other night – forgotten the details now, but thought it might compliment your BISONs. I’ve asked her to repeat the link.

  3. Simon Crean claims this shouldn’t be about personality or popularity, then spends the rest of the interview character assassinating Rudd.
    And as for the claim that Rudd and his supporters are being DISLOYAL to Julia Gillard – I guess she was being very loyal in June 2010. 😉

    Its people like Crean (and Gillard btw) that is the reason that Victoria is now one if the strongest performing states for the ALP.
    evan 2gb needs to get out of his sydney centric headspace

  4. So many weird scenarios being flung around.

    No-one is going to postpone the carbon tax. The machinery is already in motion. The compensation payments have been built into the current budget, it will wreck the return to surplus if all those $250 advance pension payments get put off for a year. It will also play havoc with businesses who are currently preparing for the carbon price. A delay will be massively destabilising. The Opposition will leap onto that, they will trumpet it as a Labor backflip, a policy disaster, a victory for common sense blah blah blah.

    Rudd is never going to become an independent. He wants the top job too badly to do that. This whole mess is about Rudd’s ambition to return to The Lodge and to get his revenge for what he sees as an unjustified dethroning. If he went indie he’d lose everything, he’d just be a nobody on the cross benches. The indies probably won’t have the same power in the next government as they do now – if they manage to get re-elected but that’s a whole different discussion for a later date.

  5. [my say
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    GD GREAT POST
    Why because
    U have covered so much time in one great post

    Every thing u say is spot on ]

    Thanks for that, My Say. I’ve had a good day today with compliments!

    By the way, you asked about my name the other day. My political hero (also not entirely coincidentally, one of Julia Gillard’s) is Don Dunstan. Gorgeous Dunny was an ironic nickname imposed on him by Nation Review writer, John Hepworth, a leftist who could write hilariously.

    Originally it was given out of irony because Don was seen as very flamboyant in his appearance and some on the left thought he was all show. When he later showed he was all substance, Heppy regretted the nickname, but I don’t think it ever bothered Don.

    That’s a pic of him, by the way in my avatar.

  6. [Mick Collins
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    Simon Crean claims this shouldn’t be about personality or popularity, then spends the rest of the interview character assassinating Rudd.
    And as for the claim that Rudd and his supporters are being DISLOYAL to Julia Gillard – I guess she was being very loyal in June 2010. 😉

    Its people like Crean (and Gillard btw) that is the reason that Victoria is now one if the strongest performing states for the ALP.
    evan 2gb needs to get out of his sydney centric headspace ]

    Good point, Mick. Crean didn’t cut it as a leader, but unlike Beazley he did try to introduce some more democratic and representative structures in the party. For his troubles the factional machine later tried to roll him for preselection.

    He fought back, going directly to the branches and won back his preselection. That experience, no doubt stressful, changed him in the sense that he was more conscious of the community around him. He and Gillard, although from different factional groupings, became allies during those events.

    He is very good value for Gillard in the Regional liaison role, a really critical one with the Indies dependence.

  7. [ Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 12:57 pm | Permalink
    If you were Rudd and you lost the caucus vote(and your position in cabinet), why on earth would you want to languish on the backbench for the next 18 months or so?
    If I was him in that position, I’d pull the plug entirely, let Gillard fight a by-election in Griffith, and not assist her in any way.]

    In which case he would become the biggest Labor Rat since Billy Hughes.

    [Or he could become an Independent, and force Gillard to negotiate with him to keep her government in power].

    In which case he would become Billy Hughes.

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