Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,410 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [If you were Rudd and you lost the caucus vote(and your position in cabinet), why on earth would you want to languish on the backbench for the next 18 months or so?]

    He wants to be Prime Minister. He can’t do that as an independent or from outside Parliament.

    He won’t resign his seat.

  2. I’m sure that the ABC(much derided here) will give Gronski a lot of coverage, can’t say the same for the other news outlets.

  3. I enjoyed Crean’s interview this morning. Apart from positioning himself as the third alternative, his advice to Gillard made real sense.

    ‘Just wait for Rudd to bring it on’.

    Gillard has encumbancy, whereas Rudd has a history of delivery problems. His challenge will fizzle and spiral out in time if he doesn’t go soon.

    He just hasn’t go the minerals to do it. I feel sorry for those who are baying for a Rudd challenge

  4. [Patrick Bateman
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 10:40 am | Permalink

    Patrick, it’s good to see you have a little more to say than getting on here to boast “I told you so”.

    Not sure if this is sarcasm? Anyway, I was never part of the Ruddstoration conspiracy theory group, but I was always very doubtful that the media was creating the story absolutely out of thin air. They may be a pack of substance free halfwits with all the perspective of a kaleidoscope, but they generally start with a grain of truth to their drivel.

    Speaking of which, surely the new Annabel Crabb show is a new low for the ABC and for political journalism in Australia? ]

    Love it, Patrick. You might stir the pot a bit at times, but that is spot on.

  5. [Ben Pobjie @benpobjie
    Not sure the government should be getting distracted by peripheral issues like education at such an important time]

    😆

  6. Simon Crean claims this shouldn’t be about personality or popularity, then spends the rest of the interview character assassinating Rudd.
    And as for the claim that Rudd and his supporters are being DISLOYAL to Julia Gillard – I guess she was being very loyal in June 2010. 😉

  7. TLM @ 9336

    If you were Rudd and you lost the caucus vote(and your position in cabinet), why on earth would you want to languish on the backbench for the next 18 months or so?
    If I was him in that position, I’d pull the plug entirely, let Gillard fight a by-election in Griffith, and not assist her in any way.
    Or he could become an Independent, and force Gillard to negotiate with him to keep her government in power.

    No loyal ALP member would do any of those things.

    I guess that is what differentiates Rudd from you and some others here.

  8. [If I was him in that position, I’d pull the plug entirely, let Gillard fight a by-election in Griffith, and not assist her in any way.
    Or he could become an Independent, and force Gillard to negotiate with him to keep her government in power.]

    Yes that sounds exactly what the self-centred and childish Mr Rudd would do.

  9. [jenauthor
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    GD, hope you don’t mind but I put a link to your post on twitter — a very lucid analysis btw!]

    Not at all, Jen. In fact, the ego deep inside is a bit flattered.

    By the way, I’ve lost track of one of yours just the other night. Amid the flame wars, you listed a link to some good news. Forgotten even what it was now, but I remember thinking at the time that it would be a nice addendum to Finns’s BISONs.

    Post again if you get the chance.

  10. Bemused @ 9342

    With all this going on I’m surprised as activist supporters things are not a little more dynamic. I would have thought meeting to discuss and convey thoughts to your local member would have been how it worked (not having a go – as I said curious).

    Thanks.

  11. So what is the biggest “news” event of the day, RuddGillardRuddGillard or
    the Gonski “the most rigorous into the sector since 1973, released today ” Report ? In my best Juan Antonio voice “And the winner is…………………….belly button fluff.

  12. Why delay the carbon price? Because it shows honesty and that is what the people feel is missing on both sides in today’s political circus. And because you want to have a chance at winning the election don’t you. It will always be a thorn in Labor’s side because it’s perceived as being rammed down the public’s throat to appease the Greens and the public had no say in it etc etc. For the record I don’t support it either and you’ll find divided views on all sides of the electorate, but that’s irrelevant, perceived honesty is the issue.

    another person who wants to deprive the punter of having their Tax-free-Threashold raised.
    Not to mention not giving a fcuk for their childrens future

  13. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    GD,

    Bowen is definately the second in charge for the Rudd putsch. He’s been promised the Treasury job. ]

    Sorry to hear that GG. I’d always regarded him as a fairly straight shooter. I didn’t think he’d fall for this agitating, after having direct experience of past problems. But then… he is NSW Right and there is an opportunity … Now I can understand him wanting to keep Nauru on the table. That could have been embarrassing if Abbott had said yes.

  14. Well, will be interesting to see how the next ALP caucus meeting goes. 28th isn’t it?

    With all the hoo haa its going to be difficult to avoid a showdown i think. Hopefully, Rudd will do the right thing by the party, call for a ballot, and then get his sorry arse onto the backbench.

    I’d think that the chances are pretty good that even if he doesn’t call for a ballot, someone else in caucus will.

    Of course, could all be sorted by Rudd quickly (and well before the QLD election by the way) if he just declares, publicly and for the record, that he is happy being FM and will not challenge OR nominate for the ALP leadership before the next election.

    Would actually make him look good and allow him to salvage something of his reputation.

  15. [Of course, could all be sorted by Rudd quickly (and well before the QLD election by the way) if he just declares, publicly and for the record, that he is happy being FM and will not challenge OR nominate for the ALP leadership before the next election.

    Would actually make him look good and allow him to salvage something of his reputation.]

    But I severely doubt he would. Doesn’t seem to be in his current intentions, though I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

  16. Yesterday I posted here that Simon Crean would be the perfect third way alternative to Gillard and Rudd. Mrs Pseph mentioned at lunchtime that she had been thinking about my comment and that to her it made perfect sense because he was “stable, experienced and a connection to old fashioned Labor values”. Her last statement I found particularly interesting.

  17. [centaur009
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 11:08 am | Permalink

    Rudd will be returned as PM, Smith deputy and Combet treasurer- Election in spring ]

    Hey, Finns gets the funny lines here. Happy Hour still 4 hours away.

  18. bbp
    [Mrs Pseph mentioned at lunchtime that she had been thinking about my comment and that to her it made perfect sense]
    She wants a new fridge 😆

  19. CTar1 @ 9359

    Bemused @ 9342

    With all this going on I’m surprised as activist supporters things are not a little more dynamic. I would have thought meeting to discuss and convey thoughts to your local member would have been how it worked (not having a go – as I said curious).

    Thanks.

    I have no doubt there would be a lot of conversations going on between ALP members and also other communications such as emails.

    In the Byzantine world of the ALP, we have rules about things like holding of meetings. A couple of extracts from the rules in Victoria:

    The Branch Executive shall provide reasonable notice of all Branch meetings to all members.

    The Secretary shall:

    a. Keep proper minutes of Branch meetings and keep all other records as shall be
    necessary to the proper conduct of the Branch and its meetings and advise the State
    Secretary by the end of February of each year the Branch Office-holders and a schedule of meetings for that year, setting out the date, time and place of each meeting. Amendments to the schedule shall be accepted if they are received by the State Secretary in writing at least seven days prior to the meeting, or if the Administrative Committee resolves to make an exception.

    So formal branch meetings cannot be held at the drop of a hat.

    The reason for rules like this is to attempt to avoid manipulation of branches and the activities of ‘branch stackers’. All very sad but necessary.

  20. I wouod say simon crean message is exa ctly what they will do

    He rudd want’of course.he could never imagine himself on the back bench being a noding head

  21. [BBS,

    I agree with Kezza.

    You’ve been had!]

    Unlike some pollbludgers households, Chez Pseph is not a one party state. Once, may be twice, we have voted the same way … and she would not vote for Tony Abbott in a month of Sundays. And a 50s view of the world you have Kezza, if you think it all comes down to a new fridge.

  22. Well, Grattan’s announced where she stands, unsurprisingly:

    [f Julia Gillard hangs on, it will be near impossible for her to regroup in the party and she certainly won’t be able to lift the Labor vote much. If Mr Rudd triumphs – the better alternative after all that’s happened – he will find it difficult to unite the government although he would probably get some improvement in the vote.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/labors-rock-and-hard-place-20120219-1th9q.html#ixzz1msyI8vZ6
    ]

  23. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    #Essential Poll Primary: ALP 33 (-1) L/NP 48 (+1) GRN 11 (+1) #auspol After all the #Leadershits – Labor is still standing (resonably well)

  24. BBS,

    I’ll enjoy you going down the self delusional line. Mis reading and misunderstanding polls is a mugs game.

  25. Bemused @ 9373

    Thanks – I sort of understand the stopping the ‘manipulation’ bit.

    But it does raise the question of are the local branches considered useful just to rally support for preselections and to attend booths.

    Sounds frustrating?

  26. Oh gawd, all those hours setting up polling booths and working for Whitlam, Hayden, Hawke, Keating, Beazley, Latham, Rudd, Gillard. A lot of frustration and a lot of good moments, too. One of the good times is now, when a minority government supported by a fragile coalition of independents is getting on with the job and passing stacks of landmark legislation.

    Is this now to be jeopardised by a combination of naked ambition, blind panic and outsider muscle flexing?

    Queensland is the catalyst, with former and current premiers calling for an end to Canberra distractions. How a caucus ballot would achieve that is hard to imagine. An unlikely Rudd win might do it. But if Gillard won, would that stop the plotters? Probably not. There are too many imponderables to risk upsetting the applecart and throwing out the baby with the bathwater (to use a cliche or two).

    If Rudd did win:

    1. He’d call an early election, risking everything’s that’s been achieved so far.

    2. Any or all of Windsor, Oakeshott, Bandt might jump ship. Don’t rely on Katter or Wilkie.

    3. Slipper might choose to go out a hero and return to his roots.

    If Rudd lost or was sacked as Foreign Minister, he might spit the dummy and force a by-election that Labor would most likely lose.

    This is like treading on eggshells. Best to sit tight. If there is to be a contest, let Rudd try to bring it on and accept the consequences if he lacks the numbers.

    Maybe there could be a tacit agreement that if, after a year of internal peace, Labor’s polling is no better in a year’s time, then caucus can look at installing a new leadership team.

    Meanwhile, no more inflammatory statements, please.

  27. [C@tmomma
    Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    Just double-checked my source re Chris Bowen. It appears he is playing both ends against the middle. So, Vex News and I are both correct!]

    Heh! It confirms my response to GG that he’s rock solid NSW Right!

  28. I notice many (here and elsewhere) are good at suffering selective amnesia. Period between pink batts (and Rudd’s lack of support for his minister) and the time he was asked to step down (YES! There was no actual blood or decapitations!) Rudd was tanking because the media smelled the blood and went for it.

    Much the same way as they are doing now.

  29. [Rudd will do the right thing by the party, call for a ballot, and then get his sorry arse onto the backbench.]

    I think you mean Gillard not the party. The best thing for the party is a change of leadership and to somebody who most likely to repair the electoral damage.

    They are now trying to bait Rudd into challenging in the hope that an early challenge would save Gillard. But if a change of leadership is the best option then he shouldn’t challenge until he has more certainty being successful first up. That means waiting more time and watch Gillard sink in the polls and continue to struggle.

    It is not good for the party to have an unsuccessful challenge as that would most certainly mortally wound Gillard, and require another challenge at a later date make Labor sink even lower in the polls… All far more messy than now.

    Rudd does not have to go to the back bench, in fact if he challenged and lost then he should make Gillard sack him to the backbench. That would be more beneficial to Rudd’s cause and the cause of creating a leadership change later. As that would make it twice she would have sacked him.

    Those hoping for a budget bounce from the carbon tax are living in lala land. Costello is still waiting for his. And of course the Libs will blame everything on the carbon tax.

    If Rudd is reasonably sure he has a goodly number of supporters then he could challenge now, knowing that everybody will see that Gillard is a gonna, damaged political goods.

    Gillard supporters are of course hoping Rudd will do the things that hurt him most.

    Also love the level of hypocrisy around the place. All these wonderful words like traitor, disloyal, for the good of the party…… yet they never have to be applied to Gillard and her team. They are only relevant when it is Rudd.

    Frankly if people here were genuine Labor supporters wanting the best chance of wining the next election then they would know a leadership change is a must, and earlier the better, and that the candidate most likely to succeed is Rudd.

  30. [ If you were Rudd and you lost the caucus vote(and your position in cabinet), why on earth would you want to languish on the backbench for the next 18 months or so?
    If I was him in that position, I’d pull the plug entirely, let Gillard fight a by-election in Griffith, and not assist her in any way.
    Or he could become an Independent, and force Gillard to negotiate with him to keep her government in power. ]

    Going by the number of similar comments here this morning, it is clear that not many people took the time to listen to the Crean interview on ABC this morning even after it was kindly linked on PB.

    Crean made it very clear that he thought those scenarios were totally illogical and would not eventuate whatsoever!

    Also was surprised to hear him say he was totally and utterly against the Rudd coup in 2010.

    Easy to see why in retrospect! 😉

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