Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, from primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor (up two on last time) and 46 per cent for the Coalition (up one). The personal ratings are good news for Tony Abbott: his approval rating is up four to 36 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 52 per cent, and he has opened up a lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister of 40 per cent (up three) to 37 per cent (down three). Julia Gillard is respectively up down one to 32 per cent and up two to 57 per cent. Newspoll also ran a teaser last night showing Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

We also today had yet another 54-46 result from Essential Research. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor was back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval found both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but contrary to Newspoll, Gillard made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expected her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent.

A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There was also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9,410 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  3. kezza @141,

    Thanks for that update.

    I did not watch 4c last night but perhaps the PM appeared a bit uncomfortable because she really had no idea about the speech writing and was caught unaware.

    I have no idea but it will be interesting to see if it goes any further.

  5. Just listened to AM for the first time in ages. Heard the PM say that she was only asked to speak to 4C about Labor’s record since 2007 and not about Kevin Rudd and June 2010. Shouldn’t we call that deception.

    The PM’s problem is that she is not a liar even tho she is accused of being so. If she was she’d be able to do it with great aplomb a la Abbott and Rudd.

  8. Morning All

    As people say, the poll is within the margin of error but still not what Labor wants to see I’d suggest – any backward step now, real or statistical, means there is more ground to make up and less time to do it in – both realistically and in perception.

    Looking forward to seeing where the primary vote change came from – hopefully “others” not the Greens

    The preferred PM figure is strange, the difference between the 2 polls is pretty dramatic – the truth is the are probably both as unpopular as each other – not good for the country to have 2 leaders like this imo

    4 corners was boring – seems the ABC has a new approach to questioning Julia, ask her a question and get an answer and then ask the same question again and again so she gets frustrated and looks angry that’s twice this week it’s been used. Very annoying

    Vote on the private health insurance rebate will be fascinating, I’m sure they wouldn’t put it up if they didn’t have the numbers though so should probably sneak home

    Interesting times

  9. [I have no idea but it will be interesting to see if it goes any further.]

    It will if their ABC has anything to say about it. Heard them even raving on jjj about it, as main story, backed up with what a terrific economic manager Tone would be or something.

    Bring on a purge @aunty, Mr Conroy, it is becoming unbearable.

  11. Beautiful!

    Gillard’s been caught out lying again! She was making a victory speech two weeks before the challenge to Rudd yet she maintains that she only made her decision to challenge on the day.

    The ALP will have no choice but to act ASAP. The longer they leave it the more damage she’s doing to the ALP.

    If Newspoll comes after a ‘good’ ‘chuckle’ week for Gillard then what does a bad week look like? BTW – no-one in the coalition ever thought they would win by ridiculous 59/41 margins. Clearly there’s a concrete floor under the coalition’s primary vote that will only be challenged when they get rid of Julia.

  12. Oh well, my prediction of 53-47 turned out to be a little on the colorful side. My allocation of 72% of the “others” vote going to Labor was the main optimistic (i.e. wrong) assumption. Newspoll used a figure of about 60%, with “others” (X) being 22%.

    ON the bright side my estimation of around 31% of “others” believing Gillard was the better economic manager wasn’t too far off the mark, so I got one right.

    It all adds up then, reconciling yesterday’s “Best to..” poll with today’s “voting intention” poll.

    The new meme seems to be that not only does the government need to maintain a polling position within MOE, but it should really improve it each Newspoll, or else the Death Of The Thousand Polls will be upon them.

    It’s important to remember that while last night’s 4C may have left some with a gloomy demeanour, it had nothing to do with the polling, but may still add to a feeling of “What DO we have to do to bring the public to its senses?” Abbott has them believing that there is a pot of gold that Labor is deliberately frittering away, for the fun of it. He has them believing that “times are tough”, but also convinced that they were never tough enough to justify the Stimulus spending. It’s bizarre, it’s unreal, it’s cloud-cuckoo land. But there you have it.

    I came away from that 4C program convinced that Gillard knew of the plotting (how could she not?), but was not in favour of it. She may have also known of her “helpful” staff writing a speech for her, just in case, but so what? That’s what staff do. They don’t sit around playing tiddly-winks until the boss comes in and gives them some chore to do.

    I personally think Gillard is not a liar, and a lot flows from that. For example, in the last week of parliament before a break, with one day to go, most of the commentary said that Rudd was safe. It was unbelieveable that Rudd could be pushed out at this time, especially with a big trip to the G20 in the offing in a day or so. But the unbelieveable happened. However, I wouldn’t blame Gillard for thinking it was all hairy chestedness on the part of the plotters. Her denials, right up to der nacht ring true to me. I don’t believe she was one of the plotters, but I do think she knew what they were up to and had a sense of inevitability, laced with unreality about it. I’ve always thought this, more or less.

    Her choice was whether to let some lesser (compared to her) candidate stump up as PM, or reluctantly take the job on herself. If she had stuck to her “ethical” guns, then she would have been throwing a lot away. Why would she let all the work she’d done in her portfolios and in the party (including supplying a hefty block of votes to Rudd when he challenged Beazley) just be handed to whomever the straw man candidate was? What would have been the point of letting the nation wake up to a news bulletin saying, “The new Prime Minister is…. Bill Shorten”? That would have been an even greater shock to the voters’ systems.

    Gillard was the only choice. She had it forced upon her. She knew Rudd’s number was up. Crazy as it was, they were going to actually do it. She took the only viable option available to her, the party and the country. Some have greatness thrust upon them…

    In doing so she had one hand tied behind her back: confidentiality. She didn’t want to seem to be gloating about her ascension (although once she got used to it she would have been proud), and wanted to start the healing process straightaway. So, no “blabbing” would be permitted. No post mortems, no retrospective analyses. Just get on with it Julia. There was an election due within the next few months, and it had to be won. Maybe the tragedy was that she thought Rudd might show some decency at the same time. In this she was wrong.

    Rudd’s recalcitrance has been a yoke around her neck. Albo talks about “the greatest dummy spit”… well, Rudd’s is one of the greatest. For all his monumental ego he was unable to function as Prime Minister. After Copenhagen he sulked, and sulked bad, closeting himself ever more in his bunker, hiding away from the world as his and his party’s poll numbers tanked, with the media sharks circling. Gillard felt (in my opinion) that the cord had to be cut and she felt she was the best person to cut it, whether she was ready or not.

    If you think Gillard was and is an inveterate liar, then a lot flows from that too. Gillard was a plotter, stabbed Rudd in the back and so on, knew about everything right from the start. That just does not compute to me. But if you think she was and is a liar, then maybe it does.

    The public has a lot of blame in this too. A fickle electorate thought that politics and government was some kind of reality TV show, where they could lazily reach for their remote controls and prod the government around on a daily basis. They got what they wanted: drama. They can hardly complain now.

    It was the public that lazily accepted the “failures” of the Pink Batts and Stimulus programs. It was the public that wanted to believe they hadn’t been saved from anything by the government, that they’d done whatever needed to be done all by themselves, through dint of hard work and personal effort. $140 billion dollars of lost revenue is hard to envisage, but that’s what the government faced in one year. You can’t just tighten belts and sack a few public servants to make up that kind of shortfall (it’s hard enough to convince people on $258k that they’re over-egging it in expecting to have their health insurance subsidized, or that expecting full pay to have a baby is anything like unconscienable).

    The well-heeled public needed to be weened off the welfare mentality, and weened off the 24 hour news cycle, where good governance is openly attributed to trivia, nuances and gaffes; where “performance” is openly discussed as if it really constitutes anything more than a veneer.

    In short, the bubble has burst. It’s hard work now, and no more freebies. Like a spoilt child the public still wants the glamourous blonde to win the final show, and wants all the lollies to suck on in the meantime. They dress themselves up as libertarian “heroes”, having a go (as Senator Kroger portrayed it last night on Q&A), not expecting the government to subsidize them, yet screaming and throwing tantrums when any subsidy is taken away.

    I don’t think Rudd was up to the job. I think Gillard is. And I think Rudd should admit this and just fade away with good grace and good humour.

  14. Doyley

    I watched 4C on iview this morning – forced myself to actually, so that I could comment in an informed way.

    And it struck me that JG appeared “annoyed” at her first appearance on the program, which is most unusual for her.

    You can just imagine how it went. Mislead into appearing on a program to talk about the govt’s progress – and to talk up Labor’s superb economic credentials – she’s ambushed into a chat about the leadership change in 2010.

    You have to wonder how much of the interview ended up on the cutting room floor, given it’s easy to see some of the editing.

  15. madcyril @152,

    Thanks for that.

    As the greens have only gone down one point it just confuses me a bit more.

    Obviously I have no idea what I am doing with my calculations.

    cheers.

  16. ShowsOn
    [I can’t believe Gillard agreed to be interviewed for tonight’s episode of 4 Corners.

    She should’ve done an interview on that topic AFTER she retires from parliament.]

    I think she had to. She might not have known what they had and she wouldn’t have come off looking any better had she declined to appear.

  19. BB

    Great post as usual. As you say it is going to be a hard slog. Not sure how it is going to turn out. So far, JG has shown resilience, but she is being pounded by all sides.

  20. Roy Orbison indicated a few days ago that the NBN rollout would accelerate rapidly over the next few weeks. With the MRRT due to kick in 1st July Labor is going to cop everything that is going in a desperate attempt to stop it all.

    Further, we are watching the death throes of the Murdoch turnout and Rupes trotting back to Pomgolia with weasel words to smarm his way out of it ain’t gonna work.

    Buckle up and hang on, people, we’ve a bumpy, rocky four months ahead of us and the shit will fly! Once through that the Oppo is basically stuffed with nowhere to go and nothing to offer, and we can watch Rabbott evaporate …

    In the meantime, hang on!!

  23. the PM has already copped alot of flak for the “knifing” not sure if the speech allegations will have any traction

    But THANK GOD this wasn’t leaked before the election. It may have sealed the deal for Abbott

  26. Gillard seems to be suggesting this morning that she was ambushed by the ABC, and she only agreed to the interview because she thought she’d be talking about the record of the government and plans for the future.
    That doesn’t square with the revelation that staff in her office were frantically ringing around in the past week, trying to get on the program people who’d dump on Rudd – I guess Con was the only one they could find. 😉

  27. muttleymcgee

    [Further, we are watching the death throes of the Murdoch turnout and Rupes trotting back to Pomgolia with weasel words to smarm his way out of it ain’t gonna work.]
    A chance for a bit more schadenfreude with this report from Pomgolia 🙂
    [Rupert Murdoch’s media empire descended into civil war yesterday as one of the Sun’s most senior journalists accused colleagues of “boasting” about the evidence they were handing to police. ]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9080015/News-Corp-descends-into-civil-war-after-latest-Sun-arrests.html

  28. [That doesn’t square with the revelation that staff in her office were frantically ringing around in the past week, trying to get on the program people who’d dump on Rudd – I guess Con was the only one they could find]

    Depends when the interview was recorded. I have no idea when it was but if it was recorded before the search for dump started then it squares ok.

  29. So labor’s primary vote goes up two points yet they go backward on the 2pp?
    Seems somewhat counter intuitive to me. Oh well, the poll is in the territory of where it should be at the moment so I am ok with that.

    On the 4C program, my thoughts are thus;
    1: I was surprised the PM agreed to an interview in the first place, particularly when you realise there was only has beens and never wazzers such as Bramston, Sciacca and Richo on it. She perhaps didn’t realise that at the time so that is forgivable. Appearing on it however just gave a tawdry tabloid beat up a veneer of respectability.

    Having said that after hearing her on AM this morning she thought the interview was to focus on the govt achievements post 2010 so it would appear the ABC may have mislead her. Mark Scott should have some explaining to do on this.

    2: It would be my guess that the leaker during the last election was either Troy Bramston or Bruce Hawker. Both seem particularly embittered these days.

    3: So the ABC sent a crew all the way to London just to get a “no comment” from Rudd?? Sounds like a waste of taxpayers money to me.

    4: Am totally over Rudd’s “Happy little vegemite being foreign minister” routine.

  30. Doyley 139

    The thing to remember is that because the results are given in whole numbers there is rounding going on. For example to get to 46/54 in the previous Newspoll from primary votes of 30/45/12/13 would have necessitated heavy rounding unfavorable to Labor on the primary votes coupled with some heavy rounding favorable to Labor on the 2PP.
    Labor must have been a smidgen under 30.5 and the Coalition a smidgen over 44.5. Even then the 2PP could have barely been above 45.5 which of course was rounded up to 46.

    Now Labor may be just over 31.5 which would be an increase of just over 1 but reported as 2 and the Coalition may be just under 46.5 which is an increase of nearly 2 but reported as 1.

  31. One thing that puzzles me from 4C last night is Andrew Fowler’s embarrassing sprint up to KR outside the church.

    He said: “Hi there, Andrew Fowler, Four Corners, Mr Rudd. Some of the factional leaders we’ve spoken to say they made a mistake when they rolled you, and they want you back.”

    All I could find in the show was Joe De Bruyn: “Reading between the lines in talking to them, I do think that some of them have had concerns about changing the leader in midstream.”

    Hardly a factional leader.

    I’m wondering what Andrew Fowler based his question on?

  32. Shorten will never live down the image of him on his mobile, counting the numbers on the evening before the coup.
    But I’m sure that he’s arrogant enough to presume that he’ll be next Labor leader after Julia.

  33. So labor’s primary vote goes up two points yet they go backward on the 2pp?
    Seems somewhat counter intuitive to me. Oh well, the poll is in the territory of where it should be at the moment so I am ok with that.

    On the 4C program, my thoughts are thus;
    1: I was surprised the PM agreed to an interview in the first place, particularly when you realise there was only has beens and never wazzers such as Bramston, Sciacca and Richo on it. She perhaps didn’t realise that at the time so that is forgivable. Appearing on it however just gave a tawdry tabloid beat up a veneer of respectability.

    Having said that after hearing her on AM this morning she thought the interview was to focus on the govt achievements post 2010 so it would appear the ABC may have mislead her. Mark Scott should have some explaining to do on this.

    2: It would be my guess that the leaker during the last election was either Troy Bramston or Bruce Hawker. Both seem particularly embittered these days.

    3: So the ABC sent a crew all the way to London just to get a “no comment” from Rudd?? Sounds like a waste of taxpayers money to me.

    4: Am totally over Rudd’s “Happy little vegemite being foreign minister” routine.

  34. The finnigans

    You seem to get a lot of rain in Bradfield. We have hardly had rain since xmas day. The suburbs are drying out again here in Melbourne

  35. BK – must say that Sky and Gilbert have been fairer than the ABC Breakfast mob about 4C and the PM. Gilbert gave Emmo a fair go with even Brandis a bit quieter.

    Emmo asking Gilbert if he thought it OK to ask a pollie to speak on a certain subject without telling them the real reason for some of the questions. Emmo did well.

    Gilbert even showed the clip from AM where JG said why she agreed to speak on the program. JG was ambushed by the ABC and she is angry and rightly so. There should be a few questions asked in the 4C offices today.

  36. So labor’s primary vote goes up two points yet they go backward on the 2pp?
    Seems somewhat counter intuitive to me. Oh well, the poll is in the territory of where it should be at the moment so I am ok with that.

    On the 4C program, my thoughts are thus;
    1: I was surprised the PM agreed to an interview in the first place, particularly when you realise there was only has beens and never wazzers such as Bramston, Sciacca and Richo on it. She perhaps didn’t realise that at the time so that is forgivable. Appearing on it however just gave a tawdry tabloid beat up a veneer of respectability.

    Having said that after hearing her on AM this morning she thought the interview was to focus on the govt achievements post 2010 so it would appear the ABC may have mislead her. Mark Scott should have some explaining to do on this.

    2: It would be my guess that the leaker during the last election was either Troy Bramston or Bruce Hawker. Both seem particularly embittered these days.

    3: So the ABC sent a crew all the way to London just to get a “no comment” from Rudd?? Sounds like a waste of taxpayers money to me.

    4: Am totally over Rudd’s “Happy little vegemite being foreign minister” routine.

  37. So labor’s primary vote goes up two points yet they go backward on the 2pp?
    Seems somewhat counter intuitive to me. Oh well, the poll is in the territory of where it should be at the moment so I am ok with that.

    On the 4C program, my thoughts are thus;
    1: I was surprised the PM agreed to an interview in the first place, particularly when you realise there was only has beens and never wazzers such as Bramston, Sciacca and Richo on it. She perhaps didn’t realise that at the time so that is forgivable. Appearing on it however just gave a tawdry tabloid beat up a veneer of respectability.

    Having said that after hearing her on AM this morning she thought the interview was to focus on the govt achievements post 2010 so it would appear the ABC may have mislead her. Mark Scott should have some explaining to do on this.

    2: It would be my guess that the leaker during the last election was either Troy Bramston or Bruce Hawker. Both seem particularly embittered these days.

    3: So the ABC sent a crew all the way to London just to get a “no comment” from Rudd?? Sounds like a waste of taxpayers money to me.

    4: Am totally over Rudd’s “Happy little vegemite being foreign minister” routine.

  39. So labor’s primary vote goes up two points yet they go backward on the 2pp?
    Seems somewhat counter intuitive to me. Oh well, the poll is in the territory of where it should be at the moment so I am ok with that.

    On the 4C program, my thoughts are thus;
    1: I was surprised the PM agreed to an interview in the first place, particularly when you realise there was only has beens and never wazzers such as Bramston, Sciacca and Richo on it. She perhaps didn’t realise that at the time so that is forgivable. Appearing on it however just gave a tawdry tabloid beat up a veneer of respectability.

    Having said that after hearing her on AM this morning she thought the interview was to focus on the govt achievements post 2010 so it would appear the ABC may have mislead her. Mark Scott should have some explaining to do on this.

    2: It would be my guess that the leaker during the last election was either Troy Bramston or Bruce Hawker. Both seem particularly embittered these days.

    3: So the ABC sent a crew all the way to London just to get a “no comment” from Rudd?? Sounds like a waste of taxpayers money to me.

    4: Am totally over Rudd’s “Happy little vegemite being foreign minister” routine.

  41. Good morning all.

    All this time I have been giving Kevin Rudd the benefit of the doubt that he’s not consciously undermining the PM and her Government. However, after watching that 4C one-sided expose I now see Rudd as a bitter egomaniac who is not honest with himself, let alone those who cannot see the thorns among his roses.

    IMO, Rudd ignored the dissent and dissatisfaction with his performance as a Labor PM purely and simply because he thought he did not need the support of his party so long as he showed only his best side to the populace. Looking back, as PM, Rudd was under fire in the media for
    an endless string of criticisms from reducing an air hostess to tears to using unbecoming language overseas when using the term ‘ratfu….s’ referring to the leaders of another country. MSM reported problems within government offices because of the workload he imposed on staff which precluded them from normal family lives at home.

    Rudd set himself up as a demi-god and his colleagues had the courage to bring him down before he could wreak further havoc. He blubbered and wept at his misfortune and blamed everyone but himself as he went about repairing the holes in the shiny veneer he presented to his adoring public. He hid behind the media’s penchant for stories to meet their deadlines and showed himself to be a hard-working FM. He has shown not one tiny little bit of gratitude that he only holds the FM portfolio because his successor, PM Gillard (unwisely, as it turns out) felt kindly enough towards him to ensure he could continue to use his talents to serve his country. I have little doubt that the PM‘s colleagues would have counselled her against such a move.

    Kevin Rudd most probably knows he will never ever get his hands on the Labor leadership (in or out of government) again, but because he is a bitter little egomaniac he will not rest until he helps get Labor out of office. He will continue to present himself as pure as the driven snow and keep his shiny veneer polished to blind those fans he can fool and he will continue to be cowardly enough to allow all the blame for his downfall to fall on the shoulders of PM Gillard, the one person who has acknowledged his worth and given him his world stage, the portfolio of Foreign Minister.

  42. [4: Am totally over Rudd’s “Happy little vegemite being foreign minister” routine.]

    Have to agree with that. The form of words is annoying.

  45. One thing the 4Corners program last night again showed is the position of ‘staffers’ in politician’s offices. Even in the office of the Deputy PM and in the PM’s office there are staffers who believe they can ‘operate’ independently or actually do the wishes of others. They are political players with their own alliances and are not necessarily dependant on the patronage of the politician whose office they work in.

    It seems to me that, as DPM and PM, JG has not, or not been able to, select her own ‘staffers’. Note that Hodges was ‘inherited’ as one of Kev-07’s former staffers. Many factions would, I think, want to place their people in the PM’s and DPM’s offices.

    On the speech writing it is quite possible that in an environment where the ‘strike’ on Kev-07 was just a matter of time that those plotting detailed JG’s speech writer to produce a speech that could be used by ‘who ever’ – this would explain its lack of content ie ‘generic’.

    That JG only committed to do the ‘strike’ herself right at the end rather than having another ‘player’ put in the PM’s job seems quite possible.

  48. Gillard seems to be suggesting this morning that she was ambushed by the ABC, and she only agreed to the interview because she thought she’d be talking about the record of the government and plans for the future.
    That doesn’t square with the revelation that staff in her office were frantically ringing around in the past week, trying to get on the program people who’d dump on Rudd – I guess Con was the only one they could find.

    Evan you would have loved Tony Wright talking on SA ABC just now. Says he thinks the main thing that came out of 4C is the reminder that Rudd was a an overly egotistical even maniacal leader and that it will make anyone thinking of backing him think again.

  49. BK – On your posting last night re’ Big Pond. It said wtte that you would be required to change user name and password.

    You should ask if a change of email address is required.

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