Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.
The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.
Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.
However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.
For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.
UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.
We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).
Does anyone have a recent email addy for gusface? Please let me know clldude@hotmail.com
People are getting seriously worried about him.
Sciaca says “Kev would make it Hollywood”
😆 well I can see this is going to be a classy production
In the absence of any teasers telling what will be covered in the 4 Corners program, it is safe to assume that it will be an attempt in some way to keep the Rudd-Gillard attrition going. It seems to go with the successful tabloiding of ABC News and Current Affairs by Scott.
So I’ll give my own interpretation of what I think happened in June 2010. I have a declared interest as a Gillard supporter, and I have no real knowledge of what actually occurred – only fragments not wholly confirmed. So for what it’s worth …
Government was becoming dysfunctional at ministerial/cabinet level, caucus was left out of the loop, and even the public service was struggling to cope. There were serious rumblings, some of which had made it to the media, but it was generally assumed inside and outside the party that it was all a stalemate. Not only did it seem unthinkable to topple a serving PM, but Gillard had made it clear publicly and privately that she would not be moving against Rudd. She was the only viable alternative – so there didn’t seem anywhere to go.
Something happened. I don’t think the released leaks of ‘bad polling’ were wholly correct, since we know from other figures that the aggregate 2PP was not too bad -about 52-48. But it is possible that selected polling, in WA and Qld especially, was looking diabolical in relation to the mining industry’s campaign. Stephen Smith has mentioned, on election night and since, that he would have been wiped out, as would all of WA.
I think this is what set the factional leaders going. The moves seem to have started with Farrell (SA) and Feeney (Vic), but quickly spread to include the AWU and then the NSW Right. Contrary to popular mythology, I think that Arbib, Shorten and Howe, although the public spokesmen, were relatively late into the revolt, albeit important to it.
I suspect it was put to Gillard that unless she stood, they would go ahead without her. Of course, they would not have succeeded with Swan or Smith, but it might have damaged Rudd in an election year. Gillard had the dilemma of either running or watch a government tear itself apart.
In a fairly typical manner she tried a compromise of deferring a challenge on condition that Rudd met certain commitments on his leadership. Whatever, that was probably unacceptable to the rebels and the demand for change overwhelming. Gillard decided to run, with support growing stronger for her. The Rudd camp claims she reneged on a compromise, which she may have, given the depth of anti-Rudd feeling. Or it may be that she had just not spoken to the rebels about the deal, which they rejected.
Most of the rest is more public. She is the only challenger I can ever remember who made a statement about her running without any statement on her aims or suitability. It was not the statement of someone spruiking her position.
She made a botch of the election campaign, including the very decision to go early, further confirming that she was unprepared for the leadership. Having Arbib and Bitar as her closest advisers then was perhaps inevitable but not helpful. And the leaks to Oakes were highly damaging and divisive. Reaching a hung parliament wasn’t a bad salvage job in the circumstances.
She did well to navigate a minority government agreement with the indies and the Greens. She has done even better in implementing policy, most notably carbon pricing and the NBN, but not confined to them and embracing a range of reforms from tobacco and alcohol to poker machines, disability reform and education/training and health.
She knew that carbon pricing was a poisoned chalice without consensus support, as it has been elsewhere, and as the polls suggest it is here also. She pressed ahead partly to honour her agreements but also realising that the issue could not wait for the coalition to come around.
She has absorbed the lessons of the coup and the August 2010 election campaign debacle. Although the review has not been released publicly (probably because it would open up old wounds), it seems that she has taken heed of the most likely findings in it. That is, the party must have a set of values so that it is clear what it stands for. A lot of the reforms have been aimed specifically at that.
Gillard has not always been clear about her values, leading to suggestions by many as learned as Tanner that she is ‘too much of a pragmatist’. That could only be accurate if she was a populist and there is no evidence of that. I would suggest she is more of a ‘problem solver’ and ‘fixer’. Even on asylum seekers it ought to be clear that her primary aim was to nullify it as a political football for the coalition. The issue is far from resolved but she has succeeded in staring down Abbott and Morrison on it.
Her driving force seems to be to create education and employment opportunity for all, especially the most disadvantaged. While that might not be a total vision for society, I think it is a pretty valuable motive force.
What’s more, I believe the substance of achievement, along with Finns BISON should be enough to get her re-elected in 2013.
Don…Glad you enjoyed it 😉
Well Twitter is ready for 4 corners, are Poll Bludgers?
[The fact that the Libs have spent several years just copying the US repugs’ “lines” is coming home to roost – policy free zone]
And it’s already coming home to roost in the US — they let the crazies (relatively speaking) take over the party in 2010, and now they are paying the price. By November, the Republicans will struggle for any voter enthusiasm at all, let alone the independents and moderates.
The same is true for the Abbott Coalition. It’s great to get a small but significant minority enraged and hurl steaming turds in all directions, but come the real campaign where everyone needs to be engaged and won over, they will simply struggle to win the sensible centre with such a dangerous and despised opposition leader.
[Well Twitter is ready for 4 corners, are Poll Bludgers?]
Watching it now mari – if anything is “revealed”, it’s that the ABC has nothing to reveal.
Ru, see email
Jen: and that is a real and present danger for Abbott, as the Libs well know.
Constant “Libs are a policy-free zone” mantras, particularly if they get picked up by the MSM, means death to the Coalition’s chances at the next election.
After nearly 5 years of constant negativity and policy brain-farts that no reputable accounting firm will now support, their cupboard is bare. The very last thing they need is for their erstwhile fan club to start seriously calling them on it.
ANY LABOR STAFFER READING THIS NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION NOW.
Call them on it.
All day, every day.
They have no answers.
And even if they say they do, they can’t get the number to add up.
They are philosophically and economically incompetent.
Rinse and repeat.
THEY CANNOT BE LET LOOSE ON TREASURY. THEY WOULD BE A DISASTER, THE LIKE OF WHICH WE HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. DO YOU NOT REMEMBER BANANBY MIXING UP MILLIONS, BILLIONS AND TRILLIONS???
THEY HAVE NO IDEA. HAMMER THEM ON THIS. ALL DAY, EVERY DAY.
Holy shit! Q&A have Tim Wilson on! Where have they kept him hidden? He must have some great things to say!
Thank god for the ABC.
Richo wheeled out. Gee, all these heavy hitters thus far.
sprocket_ @ 4295
Yes and Leona Helmsley said it so well when asked about paying taxes. 🙁
[We don’t pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes]
ruawake
william should have gus’ uptodate email address. Perhaps he could email gus himself and ask him if all is okay. Alternatively, Frank has a contact for him I believe?
ruawake:
I think my say and Gus exchanged emails. But am not sure.
The Finnigans
[Ru, see email]
Please get the Lemur back.
Dio@4290:
[Brough at least is halfway articulate!
My contacts are even less complimentary about Brough than they are about Joyce.
]
C’mon Dio, how far below zero is it possible to get?
Either would be creamed by Tony Windsor. I know it’s hard to believe, and sounds like an oxymoron, but Windsor is a politician with integrity.
Long may he reign in my electorate.
And there’s one just as good in the wings, the state member, Richard Torbay.
I’m watching part 2 of Australian Story on the Eugene Magee cyclist killing.
It’s a blood boiler.
No wonder a lot of lawyers are held in such low esteem and contempt.
mexicanbeemer – OH and I got really stroppy with No. 2 kid and his wife when they (both on decadent salaries for their ages) complained about having to pay the flood levy as well. Their excuse was that they already paid a lot of tax. They got the message loud and clear.
[william should have gus’ uptodate email address. Perhaps he could email gus himself and ask him if all is okay.]
I think WB should not go anywhere near Gus as it might makes matters worse
We dolphins and Lemurs are tougher than that.
[People are getting seriously worried about him.]
I was most disturbed to see the exchanges between him and Mr Bowe after reading them today.
I wish Gusface all the best and I trust that if anyone makes contact with him they will pass on my, and almost all Poll Bludgers’, well wishes.
Regards
Darren Laver
george
Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 8:42 pm | Permalink
Well Twitter is ready for 4 corners, are Poll Bludgers?
Watching it now mari – if anything is “revealed”, it’s that the ABC has nothing to reveal.
Keep reporting, as on principle I don’t watch very little of the ABc
What a happy little vegimight….
The Finnigans
Have you been in touch with gus? If so, is he okay?
TH
I still have not checked out the exchanges. Sorry if my suggestion, would only make matters worse
Tory tactics at the time the 2nd most senior Liberal in the country after John Howard:
[IN A ROOM packed with newspaper editors, Campbell Newman made a surprising, off-the-cuff admission.
“I hate the person I once was,” the LNP leader said.
He was referring to times where he had been well known to ring up newsrooms to give ‘free advice and even free character assessments’ after he was unhappy with stories.]
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/02/13/anna-bligh-v-campbell-newman/
don
[C’mon Dio, how far below zero is it possible to get?]
Easy -273.15°C below zero. You cannae go lower than absolute zero 🙂
[Keep reporting, as on principle I don’t watch very little of the ABc]
mari, is there’s anything new I’ll post – but I doubt it.
[So I’ll give my own interpretation of what I think happened in June 2010. I have a declared interest as a Gillard supporter, and I have no real knowledge of what actually occurred – only fragments not wholly confirmed. So for what it’s worth …]
Good summary Mr Dunny and your account is roughly line with what I understand took place in June 2010. Of course, no one person can know everything.
[THEY CANNOT BE LET LOOSE ON TREASURY. THEY WOULD BE A DISASTER, THE LIKE OF WHICH WE HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE. DO YOU NOT REMEMBER BANANBY MIXING UP MILLIONS, BILLIONS AND TRILLIONS???]
JoeJoke Hockey too!22 February 2009:
[… Mr Hockey struggled to name the size of the Government’s $42 billion economic stimulus package.
“This is exactly why we opposed the size of the $42,000, ah, million dollar, billion dollar, the $42 billion dollar stimulus package,” Mr Hockey told ABC Television today.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/joe-hockey-stumbles-over-stimulus-size/story-e6frez7r-1111118928977
mari:
I’m watching Jamie Oliver in Marrakesh – way more interesting.
But from twitter it seems Troy Bramston has been outed as the 2010 election campaign leaker.
[Keep reporting, as on principle I don’t watch very little of the ABc]
I was excited when they said they were going to answer the question every Australian wants answered. Seems that question is not ‘when are journalists going to give up on this story?’
Christ, there’d better be something good at the end of this 4C, because so far it’s all ancient history.
confessions
We on PB decided a few months back that Troy Bramston may have been the leaker. remember?
[Christ, there’d better be something good at the end of this 4C, because so far it’s all ancient history.]
BB, as I said, revealing they have nothing to reveal.
george
Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 8:50 pm | Permalink
Keep reporting, as on principle I don’t watch very little of the ABc
mari, is there’s anything new I’ll post – but I doubt it.
Twitter (or at least my stream] isn’t very impressed with 4 corners tonight, I wonder why, but the music is very dramatic
[ The Finnigans
We dolphins and Lemurs are tougher than that.]
We need some http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX8EKBbx20I
[Christ, there’d better be something good at the end of this 4C, because so far it’s all ancient history.]
No surprises there, then.
Tabloids often beat things up for the purposes of a headline or advertising, but when you get to the meat of the story you often find there’s nothing there…
The tabloidisation of ABC continues it seems.
Shame, Mr Scott, shame.
victoria:
I certainly do!
[Holy shit! Q&A have Tim Wilson on! Where have they kept him hidden? He must have some great things to say!
Thank god for the ABC.]
The batteries on the judith sloan doll ran out
I watch 4C for the music all the time …
Have they done the Ride of the Valkyries yet?
Richardson had 2 weeks notice, but then can’t quite remember whether it was 1 week, of the removal of Rudd. So in his words “he had a very small role”. Wow, how excitement.
confessions
Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 8:53 pm | Permalink
mari:
I’m watching Jamie Oliver in Marrakesh – way more interesting.
But from twitter it seems Troy Bramston has been outed as the 2010 election campaign leaker.
I would love to go to Marrakesh, is it still on? Yes you are right about Troy Bramson but didn’t clever PB work that out ages ago, just as well The Oz gave him a job?
Diogenes,
[William
Are you thinking of Barnaby, Diogenes?
Right you are. I was getting my braindead Qld LNPers mixed up. ]
Careful there Diog. No way will us Qlanders claim a NSW reject in the personage of Barnaby Rubble as one of us.
You Crow eaters haven’t got a casual seat down there you could fit him in, have you?
😉
confessions
It was due to his changing attitude whilst on Contrarians and his articles in the Daily terror.
To those with the intestinal fortitude to be still enduring Their ABC in 2012 … I dips me lid.
Media Watch is on in 20 minutes.
Arrrrh the truth is comming out. Makes sense why gillards refuses to talk about the knifing.
[To those with the intestinal fortitude to be still enduring Their ABC in 2012 … I dips me lid.]
Cuppa, it helps with the bowel movements
Awfully slowly moving. Wow. Gillard might have seen a poll. How shocking. Has it been half an hour already?
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Amazed Julia Gillard agreed to be interviewed for this. #4Corners]