Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition

Three new poll results from Roy Morgan, if you please. Despite its modest sample of 543 and high margin of error of over 4 per cent, the phone poll conducted over the past two nights is the most interesting, both for its currency and for the fact that phone polling has a clearly superior track record to Morgan’s Labor-biased face-to-face polls. Averaging Morgan’s phone poll results back to May gives almost the exact same result as for Newspoll, although the smaller samples mean Morgan has been more erratic from poll to poll.

The latest result is within the margins of recent results from other pollsters, although slightly at the Coalition end of the scale: their two-party lead is 55-45 compared with most others’ 54-46, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 46.5 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. The phone poll does not replicate the issue I keep going on about of Morgan’s face-to-face polling producing wildly different results according to whether preferences are distributed as per the result of the last election or according to respondents’ stated intentions. It instead gives us 55-45 on respondent-allocated and 55.5-44.5 on previous-election, and thus chimes with this week’s Nielsen which in fact had Labor’s share of preferences slightly higher than at the election.

Speaking of which, Morgan has published not one but two sets of face-to-face figures. Normally Morgan either publishes results from its regular weekend polling the following Friday (or occasionally Thursday), but sometimes it holds off for a week and publishes a result a combined result from two weekends. This time they have held off for a week and published separate results for each weekend. The earlier poll, conducted on January 28/29 (Australia Day having been the preceding Thursday), was remarkably positive for Labor: not only did they maintain their lead on the previous-election (51-49) method from the result published a fortnight ago, they also opened a lead on the respondent-allocated measure (50.5-49.5), which for once looked similar to the previous election result. The primary votes were 39.5 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens.

However, the polling on February 4/5 told a somewhat different story, with the Coalition up four points to 45.5 per cent, Labor down one to 38.5 per cent and the Greens down half to 9.5 per cent. This panned out to a 53.5-46.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on previous election. The polls individually had a sample of 1000 and theoretically a margin of error of around 3 per cent. However, the more telling point is how much Morgan face-to-face results continue to differ from other series which have consistently proved nearer the mark. In 2011, the average primary vote for Labor in Morgan was 35.9 per cent, compared with 34.1 per cent for Essential Research, 30.7 per cent for Newspoll and 29.5 per cent for Nielsen. The gap between Essential and the latter two is partly accounted for by Essential having a consistently lower result for the Greens: on two-party preferred, Essential and Newspoll were fairly similar.

For a look at the bigger polling picture, Possum surveys a landscape of flat calm 54-46 polling going back to November.

UPDATE (13/2): Another week, another 54-46 Essential Research result. After losing a point on the primary vote over each of the two previous weeks, Labor is back up one to 34 per cent, with the Greens down one to 10 per cent and the Coalition steady on 47 per cent. Essential’s monthly measure of leadership approval finds both leaders’ personal ratings essentially unchanged – Julia Gillard down one on approval to 36 per cent and up one on disapproval to 53 per cent, Tony Abbott steady on 35 per cent and up two to 53 per cent – but Gillard has nonetheless made a solid gain as preferred prime minister, her lead up from 39-36 to 41-34. However, only 31 per cent expect her to lead Labor to the next election against 47 per cent who said they didn’t (hats off to the 22 per cent who admitted they didn’t know); while for Tony Abbott the numbers were 47 per cent and 25 per cent. A question on government control of media ownership has support for more control and less control tied on 24 per cent, with 34 per cent thinking it about right. There’s also a question on the impact of Gina Rinehart on the independence of Fairfax newspapers, which I personally find a little odd – the issue would mean little outside of New South Wales and Victoria. I also had my doubts about the question on whether Australia is “fair and just”, but the question asking for comparison with other countries is interesting: Canada and New Zealand are seen as Australia’s main partners in freedom, the UK does less well, Japan and France less well again, and the United States worse still. China however sits well below the rest of the field.

We also had a teaser last night from Newspoll, which had Abbott favoured over Gillard for economic management 43 per cent to 34 per cent, and Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey in a statistical dead heat for preferred Treasurer (38 per cent to 37 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,682 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  3. this article in the opinion page sums up the current state of affairs in aust politics. the article is much better than anything written by the age’s current political commentators gratten or katherine murphy:

    [Thus coverage of national politics has deteriorated into mischief-making and reinforcement of anxiety. Reporting and scrutiny of public policy are relegated to minor importance. When not fixated on rumours about a Labor leadership challenge, media outlets are content to feed the cost-of-living hysteria of middle-class ”battlers” who believe they are doing it tough amid affluence. All sense of proportion has gone missing]

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/in-the-grip-of-the-quick-fix-20120212-1szl3.html

  5. Danny Lewis
    My humble opinion is that Peter Lewis is half a game changer. Also I watched the Reps today and the Coalition body language is very negative. Coalition leadership challenge imminent and all but they look respondent. Just like leaning over the mounting yard rail at a country race meeting and observing the $1.35 fav in a heavy sweat with white foam all under the hind quarters.

  9. the spectator

    [media outlets are content to feed the cost-of-living hysteria of middle-class ”battlers” who believe they are doing it tough amid affluence. All sense of proportion has gone missing]
    Yes and it begs the question as to why there are more $150k pa “battler” stories in the meeja than sub 30k pa battlers ?

  11. [Yes and it begs the question as to why there are more $150k pa “battler” stories in the meeja than sub 30k pa battlers ?]

    exactly espec when the greens want people earning over 150k to not pay the medicare surcharge

  14. [Ruawake – He has a long history and both would hit on him.]

    Labor will not win Fisher in a fit. The best they can hope for is Slipper as an Indie Speaker, if you think they will not be pursuing this tactic, politics is not your strong suit.

  15. Holy shit! 4 Corners are doing a story on a Rudd comeback! Where have they kept this hidden? They must have some explosive facts!

    Thank god for the ABC.

  16. [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Permalink
    No I am suggesting he will stand as an independent speaker and get every how to vote card preferencing him above Mal Brough bar Broughs.

    Isn’t Brough going to run vs Windsor in New England?]
    Think that was Barnaby in his quest for a lower house seat. but that seems to have gone quiet Correct me if I am wrong wasn’t Barnaby only going to sit for one term and cause havoc for both parties, when he was first elected?

  18. There is no great question in my mind about why the “better economic manager” metrics were released ahead of time.

    Just last week the Prime Minister announced that the government’s efforts will be focused during the year ahead on arguing Labor’s economic credentials. Sensing trouble, the conservative media released the numbers as a means of getting in at the ground level to put wind in the Liberal sails for the coming campaign. Conducing themselves more as players than impartial observers is an established behaviour pattern from News Limited and Their ABC.

  22. Danny 4235 – Your optimistic slant and expert analysis of the fruit has convinced me to switch into a more positive mood and amend my forecast to be more in accord with your own and the estimable jenauthor’s of 4245.

  24. [BB:

    No offence, but taking your analysis to 2 decimal places may be a bit of a long bow!!!]

    I thoroughly agree, bemused, a very long bow.

    Also basing my figures on numbers already rounded is fraught.

    But wow! Did William really say:

    [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 at 7:58 pm | Permalink

    Sounds plausible, BB.]

    I take that as a definite compliment that I’m not completely whistlin’ Dixie.

    I real life, for my day job I have to work out figures all the time, mostly trigonometric (Snell’s Law stuff) and geometric based on chords and radii. The basic methodology is to weed out numbers that fit the formula but are too crazy to contemplate seriously. Which is what I did here.

    So all I did was make a best guess, with a bit of number stuff and some “common” sense garnered here.

    I look forward to plugging the real numbers into my formula to see if they make sense.

  25. Ruawake – It is the best they could hope for but I couldn’t imagine they’d waste much effort on it.

    markjs – I saw the graphic! Talcum did his best trying to talk around the actual facts.

  28. Cuppa wrote:

    [There is no great question in my mind about why the “better economic manager” metrics were released ahead of time.

    Just last week the Prime Minister announced that the government’s efforts will be focused during the year ahead on arguing Labor’s economic credentials. Sensing trouble, the conservative media released the numbers as a means of getting in at the ground level to put wind in the Liberal sails for the coming campaign. Conducing themselves more as players than impartial observers is an established behaviour pattern from News Limited and Their ABC.]

    Cuppa, I agree 110%.

    I heard Shanahan on the Chris Smith Show (2GB) this afternoon blaming “the Carbon Tax” for Gillard’s “fall” in the “Best to manage the economy” metric. I see now that he’s written a column to this effect (I don’t link drivel).

    What the economy has to do (really, truly, deeply and profoundly) with the Carbon Tax… well, it escaped me. Bujt it must have sounded nive and reinforcing to Smith’s bogan listeners.

  29. [I agree — a bloodless coup was characterised as an assassination along with all attendant blood, guts and gore!]

    Yep, or as the Coalition and media so love to call it, ‘a political execution’.

  33. [Yes and it begs the question as to why there are more $150k pa “battler” stories in the meeja than sub 30k pa battlers ?]

    Just heard a Liberal wonk (member for Hasluck???) in the House claiming that $250k families are doing it tough.

    What with interest rate rises, they just don’t have the spare cash to spend on their own health, which is clearly more important than the health of people who subsidize their private insurance, but can’t afford private health care themselves.

    I had to pull the car over to the kerb. Nearly cried, I did.

  34. [Ruawake – It is the best they could hope for but I couldn’t imagine they’d waste much effort on it.]

    It requires no effort. That is why it will be done.

  37. Bushfire Bill

    [Yes and it begs the question as to why there are more $150k pa “battler” stories in the meeja than sub 30k pa battlers ?

    Just heard a Liberal wonk (member for Hasluck???) in the House claiming that $250k families are doing it tough.]
    Before that there was some wally from the NT calling these $250,000 pa “battler” families as “average Australians”. Apparently these average Australian battler families are made up of nurses and police. A bit of news for the nurses and police of the nation I would think.

  38. [ Ms Gillard, 7:58:21 PM, by indulgence, added to an answer given at Question Time today.

    Wonder what that was.]

    I heard it when in the car.

    It was to do with the WA Premier’s claim that she had “reneged’ on a deal to subsidize Native Title claims against the WA government. This was raised in a feature article in the OO a few weeks ago.

    The truth is that it was HOWARD who said he’d do the subsidizing, promising Liberal Premier Court, but when Labor was elected to state government in 2001 he conveniently “forgot” to follow through, and did so right up to when he lost office in 2007.

    Barnett was blaming Gillard for breaking HOWARD’s promise and she sought to clear the matter up, by indulgence, by pointing out that he actually never asked her to keep the promise, face to face.

    At the time the OO (predictably) made a big thing out of this saying this meant she was unfit to hold office, a welcher, broke promises etc. in order to justify Barnett’s vow to wreck COAG over it.

  39. Bill,

    [I heard Shanahan on the Chris Smith Show (2GB) this afternoon blaming “the Carbon Tax” for Gillard’s “fall” in the “Best to manage the economy” metric. I see now that he’s written a column to this effect (I don’t link drivel).

    What the economy has to do (really, truly, deeply and profoundly) with the Carbon Tax… well, it escaped me. Bujt it must have sounded nive and reinforcing to Smith’s bogan listeners.]

    Sounds like he’s using another angle still to give Abbott a leg-up. Abbott foreshadowed that when the government says “Labor economic credentials”, he will ‘respond’ with “Carbon Tax!”

    Poor old Liberals – their media choir know they could never make it on their own.

  44. [BB

    There would be undecideds in the best economic manager as well.

    There isn’t enough information to extrapolate to a 2PP.]

    Agreed, but the undecideds were accounted for by variable “X” and by the “fact” that 34% of the total of all polled thought Gillard was OK on the economy.

    Which led to my (by definition) formula of A+C+X=100.

    The tricky bit was to guess the proportion of undecideds and non-Labor/Liberal voters who thought she was OK on the economy. I settled at 31%, as this fitted all the published results and made sense.

    But yes, you are right, it’s still a guess, but (I hope) an educated one.

    Put it this way, there doesn’t seem to be any way that a crazy 60-40 2PP result could come from any of the possible, and sensible guesses. The Libs would have to get over 50% primary and the Greens less than 4%. Just not likely, that’s all.

  45. just a comment on the earlier discussion on negative gearing and the private health care subsidy, I have yet to read the fine print fully but I suspect the $166k single and $258k couple upper limits where the subsidy tapers out will be the “adjusted taxable income”.

    adjusted means remove negative gearing losses and salary sacrifice. There are other tax lurks, but removing these two for calculating eligibility for middle class welfare across the board is very clever.

    I think the “taper” provision need to be explained by wall-to-wall advertising, direct mail, social media etc

  46. The fact that the Libs have spent several years just copying the US repugs’ “lines” is coming home to roost – policy free zone

  49. Christian Kerr on Sky saying that Slipper [as Speaker] is very unpredictable.

    What parliamentary debates has he been watching? Slipper has been very consistent with his rulings, both as Deputy Speaker and Speaker. Far from unpredictable.

  50. Can I just add at this juncture that one of the joys of living in SA is that I sit on PB and wait to hear from my Eastern States PBers before I decide to commit myself to any programme on TV?

    Doubly so when it involves politics, so go for it, guys! If I shouldn’t be watching 4 Traumas, let me know 😉

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