The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.
UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.
[rummel
Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:23 pm | Permalink
I can see therough BS artists – pity some here are sucked in by them.
Frank, i really do not understand why you get so fired up over it. There is not much you can do.
]
Oh yes there is – it’s called naming and shaming.
[french.]
A french perverse puppet? Well now I’ve heard it all!
Rua Batphone 🙂
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Christopher Pyne says he has not had any discussions about the Liberals preferencing in favour of Andrew Wilkie at the next election.]
If anyone’s watching the Pyne Whine, pls tell me that this statement wasn’t left unchallenged. Specifically Liberals other than Pyne!
Frank @ 129
Sorry Frank, that is your prediction, it is not a FACT.
We really have no way of knowing what might have happened.
People may have suddenly woken up to the BLF (Billionaires Liberation Front), you never know.
Slipper was interviewed at length this morning on ABC Coast FM. He is going nowhere soon, he is looking forward to raising the standards in the House.
He is a happy Indie Speaker who reckon Wilkie will make the Parliament run it full term.
🙂
[Anyone else notice SHY is almost non-existent since she got caught our rigging Senate hearings.]
DavidWH – can you remind what that was about please?
ruawake
That is reassuring to hear
ru,
Do you have a link for the interview?
It’s probably the one interview that actually means much today.
[bemused
Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:27 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 129
As for the original Mining Tax, had that remained you would have NO ALP MP’s elected in WA – FACT.
Sorry Frank, that is your prediction, it is not a FACT.
We really have no way of knowing what might have happened.
People may have suddenly woken up to the BLF (Billionaires Liberation Front), you never know.
]
You dobn;’t live in WA – When Twiggy and Gina say Jump – it’s How High.
rua, that is a relief.
Victoria the main reason Gillard has done this is to claw back those marginal seats that were put at risk because of the agreement with Wilke. I know Gillard is a protected person but honestly some of her ideas have been crazy ant very well thought through. I call it being reactionary.
Frank @ 135
My apprehension started long ago. 😀
[On the other hand, I see Friend of Labor, Manne, in Drum, putting the boots into JG and suggesting the only hope for Labor is to bring Rudd back.]
Tricot – isn’t that the bloke who wrote that article about Rudd which denigrated him a lot and told us he was an angry man. It was the start of the backlash against Kev in the media and elsewhere. Manne, like Bob Ellis, needs to take a cold shower.
DavidWH
So are you saying that Wilkie had the numbers. it was somehow Gillard who has decided all this?
FWIW Andrew Elder says Manne’s argument in his Drum article dies with this paragraph:
[While it is logically possible that this year the Gillard Government will see a revival of its fortunes, at present this seems rather unlikely unless some disaster befalls the Coalition or its leader. Indeed if the poll results achieved since April 2011 continue for several months into 2012 there seem to be only two possibilities. Either the federal Labor Government will agree to go quietly to an ignominious death. Or it will try to save itself by electing a new leader. Given that the future employment prospects of several dozen Labor backbenchers will by that time be at stake, the latter prospect seems to me by far the more likely.]
Also says Manne’s commentary in the piece mirrors that of a Canberra pundit rather than a professor of political science. Hopefully he decides to blog about it.
george @ 140
Gough had many memorable turns of phrase. His ridicule was devastating to his opponents, both within and outside the ALP.
BH using per-prepared questions from the AS Ombudsman at Senate hearings and getting caught.
Must Read
http://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/the-iron-lady-20120116-1q1u6.html
[The iron lady
January 21, 2012
She’s the richest Australian in history, and could well become the richest individual in the world, but have her billions made Gina Rinehart happy? Jane Cadzow talks to the mining magnate’s friends, foes and political associates to reveal a complicated woman with a surprisingly unenviable life.]
Long article, bit by Singleton re the media towards the end.
BH
No that was David Marr who wrote about Rudd. This is Robert Manne, relation of David Manne who took legal action that stopped the Malaysian policy
Victoria we will never know how the numbers would have fallen but it suited Labor not to test the numbers.
BH, I think that was the David Marr article.
Leroy
You found the article online then!
Say what?
How on earth does a libertarian lover who wants limited govt end up not just in the Labor Party, but as the President of Qld Young Labor?? How does he think the union movement fits into his desired libertarian narrative? Ron Paul may have no problem with free assembly of union members, but he sure as heck rejects collective bargaining.
Totally whacky.
GG
http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2012/01/-slipper-vs-beijie.html?site=sunshine&program=sunshine_cooloola_coast_breakfast
Local stuff first Slipper on HoR later on.
Boerwar
[She’s lost me.]
Come ON, she never had you!.
[DavidWH
So are you saying that Wilkie had the numbers. it was somehow Gillard who has decided all this?]
I think he maybe saying Windsor is a liar too.
[She’s the richest Australian in history, and could well become the richest individual in the world, but have her billions made Gina Rinehart happy?]
Plenty of studies show that, once you are over a minimum income, that there is very little correlation between wealth and happiness.
[Victoria we will never know how the numbers would have fallen but it suited Labor not to test the numbers.]
Any PM taking legislation to a parliament not knowing the result would be derelict in their duty. Why would you risk it?
Victoria – Mark Colvin of the ABC found it & tweeted it. He mentioned he’d tried to send it earlier but couldn’t. Perhaps they didn’t have a working link before (apart from iphone type App), only put it up after weekend to maximise paper sales, or they had a request.
george
[Tough work chasing sock puppets.
you’re certainly an elusive cotton-coated creature, rums]
Not sure what the fuss is, they look so cute and have much to teach us 🙂
Mutton Chops in the Land of No Manners
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5v6oDLAqjg
Gary no I am saying we will never know how the Independens would have voted if they thought there was a real chance it may result in the government being put at risk. The fact is a number of politicians in marginal or at risk seats didn’t want the Wilke/Gillard plan to be enacted. Gillard took the politically rational course.
[This govt has not lasted this long by being stupid. So my question is, what is the govt strategy?]
I think the govt’s strategy is to do what they promised overall – not to be the victim of the politicking, not to be the populist – therefore do the right thing wherever possible, even if it appears they are diving head first down the toilet in terms of popularity.
In the long run, achievement is more meaningful.
Julia Gillard: “My government intends to honour its agreement with Mr Wilkie, not just because a deal is a deal, but because the 120,000 problem gamblers in this country (and their families) need our help. I know that Messrs Oakeshott and Windsor don’t agree with the Government on this issue and I respect their views. However, my government intends to put legislation before Parliament which enshrines its agreement with Mr Wilkie.”
If JG had said something like that it would have been both principled and politically SMART. Even if she lost the vote she would have looked like a conviction politician and most certainly would not have lost the support of Oakeshott and Windsor.
Why didn’t she? Maybe she wanted to and others in the party held her back. I don’t know. But I think she missed a great chance to differentiate her brand from that of Abbott.
DavidWH @ 182
David, it was not a confidence issue so the Govt was never going to be at risk.
For those here who think – as Manne has in his Drum article – that in the next 18 months Labor should go back to Rudd, I just cannot see how this is possible.
I reiterate, the current Labor administration is approaching its half-way mark and will, by the time the next election comes, have been in power for 6 going on 7 years with up to six budgets under its belt.
I just cannot see how the Rudd supporters envisage how their boy can get back into the Captain’s Chair? Perhaps their view of the mechanics could be explained so I can understand the process.
Despite all, KR does not have the support for a leadership challenge and I sense as far as Labor in parliament is concerned, they don’t really want him back.
If he should return, this would repudiate everything that Labor – and remember the party voted overwhelmingly for JG – has stood since the last election. While things opinion poll wise could be better, do we really believe a Rudd comeback would be more than a 5 minute wonder for the MSM?
I would speculate even if the PM were to toss the job in a tell people where to stick it, or she was somehow run down by stampeding elephants and she was out of commission, even then, the party would not go back to Rudd.
I think the attitude would be something along the lines of, “We gave it our best shot and if the Oz electorate want wall-to-wall conservative government for the next 5-10 years, so be it.
Having been old enough to have lived when the Libs were in power for 23 years is not a happy memory but perhaps a little conservative poison might not be such a bad idea for awhile and allow me to join the great “Whinger Group” which is currently the political scene in Oz.
In retrospect, maybe Rudd was cut down too early, but is was not a one-vote-over-the-top victory like Abbott’s. However, Rudd’s return would compound a double mistake.
Leroy:
Two things that jump out straight away from the article on Rhinehart:
1. What we all knew about her interest in media and the use of tools like Jones, Hadley and Bolt to help her be more financially successful.
2. She called her daughter Ginia. A mean thing to do to a kid – and more than a little narcissistic.
[Slipper was interviewed at length this morning on ABC Coast FM. He is going nowhere soon, he is looking forward to raising the standards in the House. ]
Can’t wait to see it, Rua. The Oppn won’t be able to cause chaos for 18 months. How lovely. We may now get some quicker answers if there is not so much noise from the rabble benches on the left.
I can’t agree Rosa. Putting legislation before the Parliament that you know will be defeated would be political suicide.
[Even if she lost the vote she would have looked like a conviction politician and most certainly would not have lost the support of Oakeshott and Windsor.]
Maybe if there wasn’t the whole ‘skewed perception’ element going on with our media friends. In that event they’d be trying their hardest to avoid any ‘conviction politician’ image going on. That’s only allowed for Liberals, and former Labor PMs.
Bemused true but only once Slipper came across. The plan was doomed from that point.
[The fact is a number of politicians in marginal or at risk seats didn’t want the Wilke/Gillard plan to be enacted. Gillard took the politically rational course.]
I agree. She was on a hiding to nothing either way really.
jenauthor
It does seem that they are heading into the toilet in terms of popularity!!
[Plenty of studies show that, once you are over a minimum income, that there is very little correlation between wealth and happiness.]
Dio:
I can say with complete confidence that had I won first division lotto on Saturday night, I’d be the happiest woman on the planet.
Also I am surprised Wilke has reacted so strongly. I thought he would agree with a watered down plan.
rosa 184, the assumption you’re making is that the MSM would take the slant Gillard placed on such a happening. I think we’ve seen enough of the MSM to know that would not be the case.
rosa @ 184
Why doesn’t Mr Wilkie put up a private members bill with tacit support from the ALP?
Or alternatively, why can’t he put up some amendments to the government legislation?
Either would allow his claims of support to be tested while the government did not unduly delay it’s legislation.
The big mistake the PM made, in my opinion, was to give an unconditional undertaking to Mr Wilkie in the first place. She knew she would have a minority govt and could guarantee nothing getting through the HOR without support of the independents and Green.
When planning a project, I state any underlying assumptions, identify risks issues and dependencies and state them up front before committing to anything. Standard practice which translates well to that sort of situation.
fess
[I can say with complete confidence that had I won first division lotto on Saturday night, I’d be the happiest woman on the planet.]
For a short time. The long term outlook for people who win lotto is terrible. It’s much better to win say $10K than a couple of million.
Tricot, I agree with everything you say. However, I understand (and I have said this before) that in August last year Rudd’s numbers in the Caucus were looking pretty good. Enough in fact (according to my source) to make some staffers resigned to losing their jobs before the end of the year with a Rudd return. Gillards polling position improved and some waverers returned to Gillard. I suspect with putting the pokies stuff to bed, that can only shore up Gillard’s numbers Vs Rudd.
Having said that, I am now ceasing any further speculation re Rudd vs Gillard. I hope it doesn’t happen for the reasons Tricot has espoused.
[Also I am surprised Wilke has reacted so strongly. I thought he would agree with a watered down plan.]
There’s the rub, he does. He’s going to vote for it.