Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,496 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 90
1 2 3 4 90
  1. Ugh, Manne’s Drum piece is crummy. Especially this part, which perpetuates all the KNIFING and MR POPULAR crap that have dominated the media coverage of the last eighteen months.

    [It is not merely foreigners who are mystified by the anti-Rudd coup. The Australian public has never really understood why Rudd was removed. Like members of a mafia gang, Julia Gillard and the faction leaders – Bill Shorten, David Feeney and Mark Arbib – have maintained a code of silence regarding the true reasons for the assassination of Rudd. Thus far at least, in addition, partly through a lack of information, the nation’s journalists have failed to provide an even remotely adequate account of what actually took place between the conspirators in the weeks, days and hours before the coup. (By contrast, within months of Howard’s near-removal in September 2007, at the time of APEC, excellent, detailed accounts of the episode were written by Pamela Williams in The Australian Financial Review and Paul Kelly in The Australian.) The anti-Rudd coup sits uneasily in the national political imagination. At best it is a mystery; at worst a symbol of something sinister in the culture of the contemporary Labor Party. As Rudd seems to many Australians – especially those who do not belong to the political class – to have been dealt with unfairly, his restoration to the prime ministership of Australia will seem to them to be the righting of a wrong.]

  2. [MICK – No, I’ll be putting the greens ahead of labor.]

    according to the National Conveynor of the Greens (in an article on The Drum), the Greens dont have any ideology so they don’t stand for enything either.

  3. Boerwar,

    You lost yourself.

    At your age you should never leave home without a ball of string so you can re trace your steps.

  4. [Careful rosa, you will get the personality cult offside.]

    Bemused, I hope you’re not adding me to that group. But likewise, let’s not start up the “Kevin dreamed up the policy, Kevin put forward the policy, and Kevin implemented the… oops, well, 2 outa 3 aint bad” mantra. Key?

  5. FWIW I’ve delted Bbalot’s account on AFV – He came on my site for one reason only – as a TROLL. He got exposed there.

    The fact that he had tyo come here to defend someone who used identical terminology and excuse when cought out confirmed my suspicisions – IP address or not. These things CAN be faked.

    Oh and the next person who pisses me off here and is on AFV will suffer the same fate.

    YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

  6. sprocket_
    [A shift to the Senate (where he can join SenX) would be on the cards, as name recognition is a big deal in Tassie]
    Alas, an excellent point

  7. [dg4president Doryan Gowty
    @
    @farrm51 seeing that Abbott is up in arms about betrayal, might be time to revisit what the libs have had to say about Wilkie in the past]

    Yeah. Bring it on, esp Abbott’s hero Howard.

    Abbott is nothing more than a hypocrite.

  8. rosa @ 93

    MICK – No, I’ll be putting the greens ahead of labor.

    Wow, that’s a great leap forward isn’t it.

    Vote 1 impotence and purity.

  9. [george

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    So Frank, are you chewing on nails and drinking diesel at the moment – you sound a little peeved…
    ]

    That is an understatement.

    I will NOT tolerate fools, ALP RTraitors and pretenders anyomre.

    If they want to trash the ALP publicly – then they deserve Tony Abbott and The Liberal Party.

  10. [A shift to the Senate (where he can join SenX) would be on the cards, as name recognition is a big deal in Tassie]

    SenX might not be in the senate after the next election, he’s up for re-election then. That’s why he’s all over everything right now, he has to make the punters believe he’s actually done something useful during his term.

  11. rosa

    Julia is leader of the Australian Labor party. She is not a dictator. It is not up to her to come up with policy on her lonesome, but to do all that she can to ensure that Labor Party policy is put into effect.

    Anyone who has anything to do with policy formulation knows the truth of ‘success has many fathers but failure is a bastard’. Come up with a policy idea that goes all the way into implementation, and you necessarily have had to engage various players along the way, all of whom will take credit for the policy when it eventually gets implemented.

    A policy which was the baby of one individual and one alone, which was then implemented without anyone else being involved along the way, would (almost by definition) be flawed.

    e.g. FDR wasn’t a brilliant President because he came up with ideas all on his own. He was a brilliant leader because he understood how to put in place systems to generate policy and was then able to evaluate those which were set before him.

  12. [rosa

    MICK – You saying that I should vote labor for services rendered, even though it’s now packed with pragmatic careerists.]No, I’m saying that a bit of something is far more than a lot of nothing.
    The pokies reform might not be the best, but its better than having nothing.
    It would have been nice if some of the individuals in Parliament could act like Adults rather than like petulant Scool Children.

  13. BW‘s starting to draw conclusions without making a case first.

    The problem is not Mr Wilkie. The problem is not Mr Abbott. The problem is not the pokies industry. The problem is not the gamblers.

    The problem is the catastrophic handling coming from Ms Gillard.

    Really? I think you’d be just about the only person on Earth to exclude the gamblers and the industry from Problem Gambling then. I don’t know what prism you’re looking through, but I see a policy on problem gambling that addresses just about everything that Wilkie wanted addressed, and is implementing further recommendations from the committee as well. And it’s one that will get through parliament, not some pie-in-the-sky symbolic effort designed only to – possibly – avert some accusations against Gillad while inviting a whole host of others.

    You may believe that Gillard’s only job in parliament is to save her arse, but she appears to be putting policy development before that.

  14. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Christopher Pyne says the PM reneging on the #pokies deal puts Speaker Peter Slipper at the centre of the Gillard Government. #ABCNews24]

    Wow this lot haven’t wasted any time getting back out there and shouting their stupid slogans at us.

    Go away.

  15. george @ 105

    Bemused, I hope you’re not adding me to that group. But likewise, let’s not start up the “Kevin dreamed up the policy, Kevin put forward the policy, and Kevin implemented the… oops, well, 2 outa 3 aint bad” mantra. Key?

    I know you better than that, but rosa has a real point.
    And don’t forget who advised Rudd to drop the CPRS.
    The stuffing up of his mining tax proposal was largely his own work though. Appalling timing with an election in the offing leaving insufficient time to win the battle.

  16. [So Frank, are you chewing on nails and drinking diesel at the moment – you sound a little peeved… ]

    Tough work chasing sock puppets.

  17. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Permalink
    rosa

    Julia is leader of the Australian Labor party. She is not a dictator. It is not up to her to come up with policy on her lonesome, but to do all that she can to ensure that Labor Party policy is put into effect.

    Anyone who has anything to do with policy formulation knows the truth of ‘success has many fathers but failure is a bastard’. Come up with a policy idea that goes all the way into implementation, and you necessarily have had to engage various players along the way, all of whom will take credit for the policy when it eventually gets implemented.

    A policy which was the baby of one individual and one alone, which was then implemented without anyone else being involved along the way, would (almost by definition) be flawed.

    e.g. FDR wasn’t a brilliant President because he came up with ideas all on his own. He was a brilliant leader because he understood how to put in place systems to generate policy and was then able to evaluate those which were set before him.]

    Zoomster well said, people can come up with ideas, but it needs someone special to implement them by bargaining etc, as well as politics this also happens in the business world

  18. [bemused

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    george @ 105

    Bemused, I hope you’re not adding me to that group. But likewise, let’s not start up the “Kevin dreamed up the policy, Kevin put forward the policy, and Kevin implemented the… oops, well, 2 outa 3 aint bad” mantra. Key?

    I know you better than that, but rosa has a real point.
    And don’t forget who advised Rudd to drop the CPRS.
    The stuffing up of his mining tax proposal was largely his own work though. Appalling timing with an election in the offing leaving insufficient time to win the battle
    ]

    George has nail;ed your true colurs to the wall.

    As for the original Mining Tax, had that remained you would have NO ALP MP’s elected in WA – FACT.

  19. [I know you better than that]

    Hence my jab to the side 😉 But seriously, as zoomster points out above, policy formulation is not something that happens via one member in isolation and in a short period of time. Anyone who thinks this is kidding themselves. Unless people like the idea of policy on the fly without thought or reason on the implementation/delivery.

  20. [rummel

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

    So Frank, are you chewing on nails and drinking diesel at the moment – you sound a little peeved…

    Tough work chasing sock puppets.
    ]

    I can see therough BS artists – pity some here are sucked in by them.

  21. I don’t know which I’m looking forward to the most: Abbott finally being deposed as LOTO or daretoread forced to agree with Boerwar about the PM.

    😆

  22. [zoomster

    The way some are speaking on this blog today, you would think Gillard is a dictator of a totalitarian regime.]

    You know the logic. If its bad, its entirely her fault. If its good, then its only because of others. 😉

  23. [bemused

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    Frank @ 107

    Oh and the next person who pisses me off here and is on AFV will suffer the same fate.

    Quelle horreur!!!!
    ]

    Start Quivering 🙂

  24. Manne’s piece is folly. Does he expect the PM to come out and publicly tip a bucket of shite over Mr Rudd in her explanation as to why the party moved to replace him as leader?

    I am sure the electorate has some sympathy for Rudd and the way he was displaced. But them’s the rules.

  25. [Oh and the next person who pisses me off here and is on AFV will suffer the same fate.

    YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.]

    1/4 posters deleted today with the threat to can more if they upset you. lol It will ba a frank view indeed.

  26. george @ 114

    Vote 1 impotence and purity.

    Brilliant slogan bemused. The Greens: Pure Impotence

    Hardly original though.

    Borrowing from Whitlam who, referring to the old Vic ALP branch stated: “It is easy for the impotent to be pure.”

    Sums up the greens nicely though. Some things don’t change.

  27. [Borrowing from Whitlam who, referring to the old Vic ALP branch stated: “It is easy for the impotent to be pure.”]

    Didn’t know that one. Nice one by Gough

  28. [I might be wrong, but I thought it was near suicide for the Govt to put up legislation that is defeated – ie leads to the easy charge that the Govy can’t govern and hence fits the no confidence stuff Abbott bangs on about.]

    That’s what I was led to believe too. Laurie Oakes argued similar to that some time back.

  29. [the biggest political issue in this country (by far) is the creeping political power of the corporate sector. ]

    rosa – it’s been ever thus. For many years I worked with a law firm which had the wealthiest and most elite of the Adelaide corporate and social world as clients. I saw how the ultra top did things (probably why I’m a Labor voter now).

    I can tell you that the corporate and wealthy have ALWAYS run this country – check out the history of Melbourne’s beginnings and you’ll find the same as Adelaide. They will go on running as much as they can get away with when Labor is in power and hold fast til their buddies, the conservatives, get back in.

    Gough threw a few spanners in the works but looked what happened. They all ganged up to get rid of him and put back their chosen political party over which they knew they had power. Hawke & Keating had a go and were lucky that enough of us were miffed by the woeful handling of the economy by Fraser and Howard.

    The repulsive Singleton told us on Saturday exactly how he and Gina Rhinehart do it.

    Do you really think they are going to let a mere woman run the country? No, so I’m standing up for the woman who really believes that education and fairness is what counts even if, at times, it means pragmatism from her.

  30. Blindy freddy could have predicted the way the msn and coaliton were going to respond to this situation re pokies and Wilkie. As already stated previously. Surely Gillard and the Labor govt knew what the reaction would be? Could they have handled it any other way. At the moment it does appear as if they have shot themselves in the foot. This govt has not lasted this long by being stupid. So my question is, what is the govt strategy?

  31. [rummel

    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    Oh and the next person who pisses me off here and is on AFV will suffer the same fate.

    YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

    1/4 posters deleted today with the threat to can more if they upset you. lol It will ba a frank view indeed.
    ]

    Wrong.

    Only 1 person- Bobalot.

    Bobalot Broke Rule No 1 – Don’t be a Dickhead

    My Blog, My Rules 🙂

  32. [I can see therough BS artists – pity some here are sucked in by them.]

    Frank, i really do not understand why you get so fired up over it. There is not much you can do.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 90
1 2 3 4 90