Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Hmm… who knew Howard was one of our greatest PMs? Glad the SMH could fill us in on that score. 😉

    [The simple answer is that Australians lop down tall poppies, an argument often advanced for why Malcolm Turnbull will never be accepted by Coalition voters as leader – he is too smart, too rich, too successful.

    But Australia’s best prime ministers – John Howard, Bob Hawke, Robert Menzies, Ben Chifley, John Curtin – we recognise as extraordinary people.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-importance-of-being-an-earnest-but-not-an-ordinary-politician-20111218-1p0o5.html#ixzz1gtNGbQnR

  3. Morning, Dawn Patrol.

    George Galloway gives a fitting farewell tp the Iraq invasion debacle, concluding
    [But two things, as Bush would put it, I ”mis-underestimated”. First, that when the lies on which the case for the war had been constructed were exposed, the credibility of the political systems of the two main liars would collapse. And second, that the example of the Iraqi resistance would trigger seismic changes from Marrakesh to Bahrain.

    Almost nobody in Britain or America any longer believes a word their politicians say. This malaise has fuelled both the Tea Party phenomenon and the Occupy movement, even if the word Iraq seldom crosses their lips.

    And from the Atlantic Ocean to the Persian Gulf, the plates are moving still.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/bell-tolls-for-us-empire-in-iraq-20111218-1p0qx.html#ixzz1guq8mH3S ]

    The whole piece is accurate and damning.

  5. risbane @ 6701
    Yes I have to wonder about Jacqueline Maley placing Howard among our greatest prime ministers – especially when we are reminded of the Iraqi catastrophe this week.

    The kindest you could say about Howard is that on longevity he’s up there. And even that was largely as a beneficiary of Labor’s backward-looking opposition, mostly under Beazley, for most of that time.

    You can never aspire to greatness by dividing the people and appealing to their base instincts. That’s why Hughes would also fail to make the list, despite brilliance.

  7. morning all – well now we have george pell awakening from his coma to support offshore processing…. nice words george but did you have to wait till over 100 people lost their lives? disgraceful…

  8. Last Lynne
    How interesting
    That was my little. Sarcasm, of where was abbott on sunday

    Must be a little clairvoyant,

    Now. Next step may be,anott’now come out and change his mind

    Let’s
    See,

  10. John howard

    Weapons of mass destruction

    There was distruction in iraq
    But gee still looking for the Wmd s

    I have a big feeling the genral public. Will not agree,
    With them. On this one
    what bough this
    on its not the turn o century or any thing like that,

    Another reason to tell them to stick their paper

    But if my memory is cirrect the greatest pm. Lost his seat,

  11. Gee us ladies up, must be christmas, and work to do..

    Have noticed over 43 years that most men think christmas is magical.

    Because everything just happens and they don’t know, how,
    Smile face

  13. GD
    [The kindest you could say about Howard is that on longevity he’s up there]
    And even that’s being far too kind.
    What it does show is the paucity of leadership material in Lib ranks to have continued with such a small mind in the top job.

  14. [Another reason to tell them to stick their paper

    But if my memory is cirrect the greatest pm. Lost his seat]

    Yes, My Say. That puts it perfectly in perspective. It puts Howard in the same category as Stanley Melbourne Bruce, the only other sitting PM to lose his seat. And for the very same reasons: each tried to nobble employment awards/conditions and unions.

  16. Jennifer Hewett’s OO piece this morning reveals the gulf between the business community and the coalition.

    [That ambivalence is reflected in the last survey by the Australian Institute of Company Directors in August. About half of those directors surveyed said that assuming the carbon tax had been in operation for a year or two, it would be a good thing to keep.

    That will certainly not be the position adopted by Tony Abbott as prime minister. It’s another reason so many in business – as opposed to those in the Liberal Party – still hold out forlorn hope for a return of former leader Malcolm Turnbull.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/corporate-leaders-worried-about-abbotts-economic-credibility/story-e6frg9px-1226225249242

  17. GD

    Thanks for the Galloway link.

    I guess the Yanks have to claim victory, even if they’re stampeding out with their tails between their legs. Don’t the victors write the history?

    The victors never get to face a war crimes tribunal.

    Howard, Bush and Blair should be charged for the war crims they are.

    Another reason why Howard should never be named as a “great” PM of this country.
    Makes me want to puke, actually.

  19. Even Howard’s longevity was made possible by staunch MSM support. The MSM helped whip up the AS hysteria (2001 election won) and Murdoch and the shock jocks managed to convince pensioners and other low income earners that “we will all be winners under the GST”. Without that GST advocacy Howard’s loss of the 2 party preferred in 1998 would have been a clear win to Beasley.

  21. [my say
    Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 8:03 am | Permalink
    6708 correction
    May be now abbott will come out, and change his mind]

    Abbott will say he already has an offshore processing policy (but won’t mention that to access it AS still have to make the boat journey).

    You have to wonder whether Pell will be able to persuade Dr No to do a backflip. And if he succeeds, how will it be reported? Probably that the govt has acceded to Abbott’s new humanitarian AS policy.

    Gee, I have a lot of faith in the msm.

  22. Finns
    [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 7:58 am | Permalink
    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    The AS seekers tragedy is Indonesia dont even rate a mention in the Jakarta Post – http://www.thejakartapost.com – AS is non issue in Indonesia
    3 seconds ago]

    The article “Hundreds of victims scrambled for 19 life jackets: Rescue team” is in the Jakarta Post, the page that you linked.

  25. [What? BK on hols? In his absence I’ll post a couple of cartoons:]
    A belated good morning to the Dawn Patrol. At last I got a good night’s sleep.
    GD – great cartoons!
    Shorter George Pell comment – “let the government govern and save these poor wretches for death”. But he won’t name Abbott as the one stopping it from happening. SH-Y deserves a mention, too.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pell-urges-both-sides-to-agree-on-offshore-processing/story-fn59niix-1226225304958

  26. Kezza, read closely, that story is about another boat sinking in Java. It’s the migrant workers, not the AS

    [Hundreds of victims scrambled for 19 life jackets: Rescue team
    The Jakarta Post | Sun, 12/18/2011 6:29 PM A | A | A |

    The ship carrying hundreds of migrant workers that sank in waters off Prigi, East Java, on Saturday, lacked safety equipment, resulting in a mad scramble for just 19 available life vests on board, the head of the search and rescue team dispatched the accident said on Sunday.
    The Surabaya Search and Rescue (SAR) team said the doomed ship had 25 life jackets on board, but six of them taken by the ship’s crew, leaving the hundreds of panicking passengers to fight amongst themselves for the remaining 19 life jackets.

    According to Surabaya SAR III office chief Sutrisno, the lack of safety equipment on board the ship made it difficult for the victims to survive the accident. He said the passengers had held onto the sinking remains of the, he said.]

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/12/18/hundreds-victims-scrambled-19-life-jackets-rescue-team.html

  27. Yesterday I thought it was posted that Mark Latham criticised the Gillard govt re AS policy. Today Latham is reported thus:

    [Controversial former ALP leader Mark Latham blamed Labor’s Left and the Greens for the deaths. ”Let’s be brutally honest about it, the boats sinking and families dying is a direct consequence of the so-called compassionate people who support onshore processing,” he told Sky News.

    ”Onshore processing is a magnet for people to pay people smugglers to get on boats that are unseaworthy and to effectively risk their lives.”]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/huge-toll-as-boat-sinks-20111218-1p0xo.html#ixzz1gvKzhQNY

  28. Kezza, my apology it was about the AS. that was the first time they call the AS as Migrant workers, which was very unusual.

  29. George
    if you are around.
    on my tablet
    Gmail
    Delete button not there
    it says in setting, sync promlems back soon

    Checked google
    There is a few forums that say this happens with google
    Can u explain if u have a minute

  30. [A preliminary police investigation revealed that the immigrants were from Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey, and were headed for Australia in search of work.]

    I have never seen this before being used.

  32. This looks like it was a great place to work. Bloody disgusting!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/women-bullied-degraded-at-airtraffic-centre-20111218-1p0uj.html
    What a pathetic article from Maley in the SMH.
    [Or maybe, like so many of my countrymen, I’m grumpy because the level of debate this year has been so appallingly base.]
    Of course you and your ilk have had nothing to do with the dumbing down of discourse on important issues and policies!

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-importance-of-being-an-earnest-but-not-an-ordinary-politician-20111218-1p0o5.html#ixzz1gvMIlStZ

  34. Finns
    [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, December 19, 2011 at 8:22 am | Permalink
    Kezza, read closely, that story is about another boat sinking in Java. It’s the migrant workers, not the AS]
    Yeah, spotted that, thanks.
    Interesting isn’t it that Indonesia calls them migrant workers, not refugees or asylum seekers.

    Must be so that Indonesia can continue to avoid pressure to sign up to the UN Refugee Convention if it refuses to recognise them as AS.

  35. [Or maybe, like so many of my countrymen, I’m grumpy because the level of debate this year has been so appallingly base.]

    An amazing sentence given the article in which it appears! Not an article discussing anything of substance, but one with yet more ‘advice’ to Gillard about her appearance, mannerisms, and general conduct.

    When the msm improves its contribution to public debate, then journos can start criticising. Unbelievable.

  38. The Finnigans

    [A preliminary police investigation revealed that the immigrants were from Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey, and were headed for Australia in search of work.

    I have never seen this before being used.]
    A number of politicians in Australia and many of the anti AS people describe them not as refugees or asylum seekers but “economic migrants” . Seems little different to what the Jakarta Post was saying.

  41. poroti

    [A number of politicians in Australia and many of the anti AS people describe them not as refugees or asylum seekers but “economic migrants” ]
    I think you’re right.
    Was just coming to the same conclusion myself.
    Bit slow today!

  43. A good editorial in the SMH on the death of Christopher Hitchens.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/editorial/drinker-thinker-stirrer-the-flings-and-arrows-of-outrage-20111217-1ozzy.html

    Tortoise Bulletin.
    The 30 year old pet tortoise that broke out a week or so ago has taken up residence in our dam and now delights in poking his head up from its middle to look at my daughter riding her horse. Good luck to him. He will not go hungry as the dam is full of yabbies.

  45. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    SHY of the Greens said she supports “Regional Solution”. Please tell us what that is Dear Senator
    35 seconds ago

  46. vic

    [confessions linked it at 6716]

    Oh, thanks.

    Sorry fess, must have missed it because I was so bloody miffed over Howard getting a guernsey as one of Australia’s greatest PMs. Ugghhh.

    I was busy trying to find a link to how much Howard and Costello squandered during the mining boom. Came up with this:

    [Costello a good treasurer, are you serious?
    In the three years before the GFC, Treasury reported that from the 2004-05 Budget to the 2007 election, the China boom and subsequent robust economy had added $334 billion in windfall gains to the Budget surplus. Of this, Costello spent, or gave away in tax cuts, $314 billion, or 94%.
    Any fool can have a government surplus if enough revenue is coming through the door, unless you’re also telling me the Whitlam government were good economic managers, they had a federal government surplus!
    Any short-term benefit of this ‘cash splash’ was then largely eaten away as the Reserve Bank kept raising interest rates in an effort to stop inflation and the economy over-heating. Costello presided over 10 interest rate rises in a row!
    And remember the ‘Debt Truck’? Costello and Howard used to beat Keating over the head with this before their first electoral win. The nation’s total debt soared from a mere $700 billion in 1997 up to $3.2 trillion by the close of their term. An increase of 387%. There is a reason Costello and Howard forgot about the debt truck!
    So say what you like about Swan but Costello as a worthy treasurer, you’ve got to be joking.]

    They were hopeless at the head of our grand country in the good times. Not to mention the $3 billion plus they spent on an illegal war in Iraq.

  50. BK

    [Tortoise Bulletin.
    The 30 year old pet tortoise that broke out a week or so ago has taken up residence in our dam]
    BK are you sure the words “tortoise” and “broke out” should be used in the same sentence ? 🙂

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