Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [I note that the federal parliament website has been down all day.]

    It will be up again tomorrow once the new government is installed.

  8. Finns

    [gee Diog, blaming your son for your stingyness. buy him few more.]

    He’s getting a Xavi jersey for Xmas but shhhh don’t tell him.

  9. [
    tWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll QLD Preferred Premier: Bligh 39 (+5) Newman 43 (-5) #qldpol #auspol

    1 minute ago

    »

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll QLD Newman: Approve 45 (-6) Disapprove 33 (+6) #qldpol #auspol

    1 minute ago FavoriteRetweetReply

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll QLD Bligh: Approve 39 (+1) Disapprove 50 (-2) #qldpol #auspol

    2 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll QLD State Primary Votes: ALP 31 (+4) LNP 44 (-6) GRN 10 (+2) OTH 15 (0) #qldpol #auspol

    2 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 (+5) LNP 56 (-5) #qldpol #auspol

    3 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]

  10. Newspoll Queensland State (Oct-Dec, 1123 voters)

    Two Party Preferred: ALP 44 (+5) LNP 56 (-5)
    Primary Votes: ALP 31 (+4) LNP 44 (-6) GRN 10 (+2) OTH 15 (0)
    Bligh: Approve 39 (+1) Disapprove 50 (-2)
    Newman: Approve 45 (-6) Disapprove 33 (+6)
    QLD Preferred Premier: Bligh 39 (+5) Newman 43 (-5)

  13. Interesting, QLD looks similar take up to Fed Labor – slow recovery.

    I actually forgot when the election for QLD is happening (has any date actually announced yet).

  14. “No one is born hating another person for the color of their skin, religion, or background. Hatred and intolerance have to be learned. Even in the grimmest times I have seen glimmers of humanity which assured me that man’s goodness is a flame that can never be extinguished.” –Nelson Mandela

  16. Pegasus,
    I bet he didn’t look in the Liberal Party then, in there is just a big empty hole where the heart is supposed to be.

  23. If only the world’s ills could be reduced to a cafe slogan.

    Such is the mindset of today’s Greens Party and their blogosphere shills.

  35. [Is said photo available for viewing?]

    I’m not sure fess – BK sent it to me directly for “sprucing” up, so I’ve emailed it back to him and he can let us know. It’s of a group of bludgers from here – I’ve transplanted their heads 😉

  41. [The life of a man — his time is but a moment,
    his being an incessant flux,
    his sense a dim rush light,
    his body a prey of worms,
    his soul an unquiet eddy,
    his fortune dark,
    his fame doubtful.

    In short, all that is body is as coursing waters,
    all that is of the soul as dreams and vapors.

    (Marcus Aurelius Emperor of Rome c. AD170 Vienna)]

    (If anyone is wondering why I have posted this, I’m not actually sure, but it seemed to be a Green thing to do. ‘Save the legless lizards’ – as well )

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