Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll combines the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveying, and shows a slight increase to the Coalition’s lead from the previous poll. Their primary vote is up a point to 46.5 per cent, with Labor steady on 36.5 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. The headline two-party figure has the Coalition leading 55.5-44.5, up from 54.5-45.5. The usual caveats should be added: Morgan’s face-to-face polls have showed a consistent bias to Labor over the years, but in the case of the two-party vote this is more than cancelled out by the highly idiosyncratic tendency of Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences to split about 50-50 between the two major parties. Applying the more reliable method of allocating preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has gone from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47.

Other poll news:

• The latest seat-level Queensland state automated phone poll by ReachTEL targets 369 respondents in Lytton, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Deputy Premier Paul Lucas. It shows Labor’s 12.0 per cent margin set to be erased by a swing of 23 per cent, following polls indicating swings of 27 per cent in Stretton, 15 per cent in Ferny Grove, 26 per cent in Ipswich and 20 per cent in Bundamba. The poll for Lytton has the primary votes at 26 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP, 13 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party and 9 per cent for the Greens. ReachTEL’s imperfect two-party measure (“if you were forced to make a choice between the two following candidates who would you choose?”) has the LNP leading at 62-38. Standard caveat: ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings indicated are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling. Labor will preselect its candidate for Lytton tomorrow, the contenders being Peter Cumming, a Wynnum-Manly ward councillor and Left faction member, and Daniel Cheverton, described in the Wynnum Herald as a former policy adviser to Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company.

• A poll conducted for Australian Marriage Equality as part of Galaxy’s online omnibus surveying finds 80 per cent support for a Coalition conscience vote on same-sex marriage, with only 14 per cent opposed. It also has only 25 per cent nominating Labor as the party that best represents its views on same-sex marriage, compared with 32 per cent Liberal, 3 per cent Nationals and 13 per cent Greens, with 17 per cent for “none/don’t know”. The poll was conducted from November 25-27 from a sample of 1051; see here for delightfully detailed tables. This follows a similar poll in August which had 29 per cent strongly agreeing that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 31 per cent agreeing, 14 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent strongly disagreeing. A striking gender divide was evident, with women twice as likely as men to strongly support same-sex marriage and men twice as likely as men to strongly oppose it, along with effects in the expected direction according to age and religion.

Despatches from last weekend’s ALP National Conference:

• The recommendations made in the post-election review conducted by Steve Bracks, John Faulkner and Bob Carr were mostly scotched, wih largely cosmetic exceptions. Most importantly, a plan to have a component of the National Conference be directly elected by the rank-and-filed has been referred to an implementation committee which the Left complains is unlikely to seriously progress it. Most of the 400 conference delegates are at present chosen by the state branches, which are responsible to state conferences which consist of 50 per cent union and 50 per cent constituency party representatives. NSW general secretary and Right faction figure Sam Dastyari had proposed the direct election of an extra 150 delegates – one from each of the 150 federal electorates – but the Left favoured a model in which half would be directly elected by party members and the other half directly appointed by trade unions (a presentation of the Right’s proposals is available from The Age). The resulting strengthening of the unions’ arm was widely criticised, although the Right was accused of using this as a pretext to scotch reforms which, in the view of a Right source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald, “would have diminished the faction’s influence by diluting the factional balance among delegates”. Alternatively, VexNews presumably speaks for the Right in complaining that the postal voting proposed for election of Conference delegates would confer an advantage on the Left, while Graham Richardson in The Australian expresses alarm at the near-success of Left policy measures that would have “finished” Julia Gillard, and cautions against “the practical effects of electing conference delegates directly by the rank and file”.

• Also rejected were proposals to give the elected national president and vice-presidents voting rights on the 20-member national executive; for state and territory presidents and vice-presidents to be elected by the rank-and-file; for the party’s national appeals tribunal to be given greater independence of the national executive; and for national executive and state administrative committee interventions into preselections to occur “only as a last resort”. It will be left to state branches to decide whether to implement a proposal to have 20 per cent of the preselection vote in some seats to be determined by primaries open to those willing to register as Labor supporters. A Left’s-eye-view of the fate of the Bracks-Faulkner-Carr recommendations has been obtained by Andrew Crook of Crikey.

A solitary preselection nugget:

• The Weekend Courier Community newspaper reports the Liberals have again endorsed Rockingham real estate agent Donna Gordin as their candidate for the southern Perth seat of Brand, held for Labor by Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3 per cent.

Last but not least, the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its report on the funding of political parties and election campaigns, the conduct of which was part of the minority government agreements reached between Labor, the Greens and the independents after the 2010 election. It reiterates a number of measures which featured both in the government’s reform attempts in the previous term, which were thwarted in the Senate by the Coalition and Steve Fielding, and in the terms of the minority government agreement:

• The threshold for public disclosure of donations to political parties and third parties to be cut from $11,900 and $1000, reversing a radical change made in 2006 by the Howard government, with different state branches of the same party to be treated as the same entity to prevent multiple undisclosed donations;

• Disclosures of donations to be reported six-monthly rather than yearly, with the new report further suggesting donations over $100,000 be disclosed within two weeks;

• Public funding of parties and candidates who poll over 4 per cent of the vote to be limited to reimbursement of proved spending;

• Foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50 to be banned, and harsher penalties imposed for various offences.

The new report also recommends that:

• Money from fund-raising events be treated as donations and disclosed accordingly;

• Administrative penalties rather than rarely pursued criminal prosecutions apply for “straightforward” offences;

• Options be explored to cap spending by third parties for a period before an election;

• Registered political parties receive public funding to cope with the administrative burden of the changes (which I would be seizing on right now were I a tabloid hack).

What the report doesn’t recommend is donation and expenditure caps such as those which have been introduced at state level in New South Wales and Queensland, or the Greens-backed proposal for a ban on donations from tobacco companies (which the Greens successfully lobbied for in NSW). The terms of reference also did not require consideration of the “truth-in-advertising” requirement provided for by the minority government agreement. A dissenting report from the Coalition members again disapproved of higher disclosure thresholds on the unconvincing grounds that it would “significantly impact the ability of individuals to give donations to political parties without the potential for intimidation and harassment”. It also called for a dedicated electoral fraud squad in the Australian Electoral Commission, to deal with an issue the AEC itself does not recognise as a serious problem.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,657 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 55.5-44.5 to Coalition”

Comments Page 29 of 34
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  1. Laocoon

    [Did Gillard really say “there’d be no gay marriage under the government I lead”.]

    Yes.

    [We have determined as a Labor Party the Marriage Act will stay unchanged, so marriage will be defined as it is in our current Marriage Act as between a man and a woman, and we have also said that the Labor Party policy is we do not want to see the development of ceremonies that mimic marriage ceremonies. And so that’s the party policy, and as Prime Minister, as the leader of the parliamentary Labor Party that’s obviously my policy, and that’s what you should expect to see from the Gillard Labor Government if we’re re-elected.]

  2. diog

    [Because there had to be the inevitable Sunday Rudd story.]
    Could have written anything.
    Having worked in newspapers, this type of knowledge would have spread like wildfire. It could not have been contained for 9 days. No fkn way.

  10. Diogenes @1401,

    And party policy has changed. Besides, the government will not be asking for a change to the Act. A private members bill will be introduced which is the right of any member to do and the Parliament will decide.

    The PM has this covered in advance.

  11. [CTar1
    Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 7:34 pm | Permalink
    “ten journos were in a bar, two were Irish, two were …]

    The actual quote is really a worse joke:

    [Inside were a group of nearly 10 journalists having a beer]

    Nearly 10?
    What the hell’s that supposed to mean!

  12. @tlbd – Works for me as long as I don’t over do it or more important not too often (and check the doors and windows .. dark thoughts 🙂 )

    Remember you need to be chipper for Leveson tomorrow – Gaffhook and I may need some well adjudicated supervision during the expected havoc.

  14. Doubt whether anyone out in voter land (a) could actually name more than 5 or 6 Front Benchers on either side of the House and (b) gives a toss as to who does what.

    They might enjoy the argy-bargy of the Gillard-Rudd-Abbott thing, but that is the extent of the political involvement for many. More like a soap opera with most wondering how it all turn out.

    A depressing reality – in some respects – but both sides of politics are struggling to actually get anyone to “join the party”.

    By the way, many here, a few months ago, were commenting how ill/sick/bald/tired/depressed/ugly/grey Abbott looked – almost as though he were at death’s door.

    He is looking pretty chipper to me – health-wise – at the moment.

    Just as there can be right-wing projection, so we have to be careful of the same from the left.

  15. sustainable future

    Im suitable scared of my ignorance to now trust Gillards GW tax where i come out of it better off. hmmm i feel safe again.

  16. Doyley

    [And party policy has changed.]

    I believe that’s what they are complaining about after she said

    [and that’s what you should expect to see from the Gillard Labor Government if we’re re-elected.]

  17. @kezza2 – The beer bit I understand, Ok got that. But if there’s no Irishman, no Scot and no Englishman (or woman as required) how does the joke work?

    Bem woops … Con-fused

  18. http://www.smh.com.au/national/coalitions-poll-favours-1-pokie-bet-20111210-1oooj.html

    [Coalition’s poll favours $1 pokie bet
    December 11, 2011
    Stephanie Peatling

    THOUSANDS of people have told the federal Coalition they support tougher action on problem pokies gambling, including $1 maximum bets and mandatory pre-commitment.

    The opposition frontbencher Malcolm Turnbull will this week release the results of an online poll he conducted to gauge community views on what should be done.]

    More in the article

  19. [ lol, there called storms and they have been happing for a while now. However i would love to see the evidence that points to these being climate change storms and how gillards Climate Change Tax will assist in moderating them in the future. ]

    So a big wack of Rockhampton being under water for three months every year is “normal”!

    I’m bloody glad you don’t have anything to do with the country’s CC policy.

    Anything, no matter how abnormal, is just “normal”to you. Blimey.

  21. Dio @ 1401

    Thanks for that. Well, I guess I’ll be hearing more of this from Abbott then

    (Funnily enough, my PC froze momentarily when I metaphorically darkened the ACL site!)

  22. So Abbott and the Liberals want to whinge about Labor changing its policy on marriage equality? Hilarious.

    Does Abbott regard his PPL and AGW policies core or non-core? How about his insistence that IR reform is off the table?

  23. [“It was the clear policy of the coalition at the election that marriage was between a man and a woman,” Mr Abbott told Sky News today.

    “Every single member of the coalition was elected on that position and I don’t think we can break faith with the electorate.”]

    So the Noalition must stick by it’s gold plated PPL for executives as that was a policy they took to the election. What else did they promise that they would prefer to sweep under the carpet?

  25. [… policy to halt trade with countries which do not have democratically-elected governments…]

    Would have saved Howard, Downer and AWB a bit of grief. 😆

  29. The threshold next year is around the 18 tht, as oh retired. But is doing work from home for them, we have been checking all these issues out

  31. tlbd

    not a thing out our way between 1 and 1.30am
    the storm had passed and it quite lovely outside

    must have been heavy cloud cover as there was not a star to be seen.
    At least I hope there was heavy cloud cover

  33. scorpio

    [So a big wack of Rockhampton being under water for three months every year is “normal”!

    I’m bloody glad you don’t have anything to do with the country’s CC policy.]

    And you

    QLD records

    Highest Temp

    1 49.5 24 December 1972 Birdsville
    2 49.0 6 December 1981 Birdsville
    3 48.8 22 December 1990 Birdsville

    Highest Daily Rainfall

    1 907.0 3 February 1893 Crohamhurst
    2 878.3 18 February 1958 Finch Hatton
    3 819.2 19 January 1970 Hecat

    Highest Monthly rain fall

    1 5387.0 January 1979 Bellenden Ker (Top Station)
    2 3657.5 February 1977 Bellenden Ker (Top Station)
    3 3376.0 February 2000 Bellenden Ker (Top Station)

    Highest Annual Rainfall

    1 12461.0 2000 Bellenden Ker (Top Station)
    2 11666.0 1999 Bellenden Ker (Top Station)
    3 11537.7 1977 Bellenden Ker (Top Station)

    looks all very normal at the moment

  34. Ctar1,

    You’ll need a supply of:

    Fillet of a fenny snake,
    In the cauldron boil and bake;
    Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
    Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
    Adder’s fork, and blind-worm’s sting,
    Lizard’s leg, and howlet’s wing,
    For a charm of powerful trouble,
    Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

  35. There were 10 journos in the bar 1 Aussie, 1 Pom, a couple of Yanks, a Japanese, a Frenchman, a Scot, a German, an Italian and an Irishman.

    The barman refused to serve them because they didn’t have a Thai.

  39. I gave up moon-watching at about 2:30. If the deity ignores my wishes that’s OK by me: I ignore it all the time.

  40. [“Every single member of the coalition was elected on that position and I don’t think we can break faith with the electorate.”]

    Every single member of the coalition was elected on a laws-of-physics-defying broadband policy of Wireless Everywhere Only With No Towers, yet their policy is now for FTTN – Labor’s policy in 2007. Breaking the faith?

  42. [There were 10 journos in the bar 1 Aussie, 1 Pom, a couple of Yanks, a Japanese, a Frenchman, a Scot, a German, an Italian and an Irishman.]

    Sounds like the UN!

  44. Ducky:

    I saw the eclipse out and was glad I did – big sleep in this morning though.

    With friends, a fire-bucket (nights still chilly), good wine and some pad thai, cheese and crackers. I don’t live in the city so the sky is unpolluted by city lights. It was just great.

  45. fess,

    UN also has a Thai. Unfortunately it also has five who have veto powers, through a bit of a grandfather clause.

  47. CTar1
    Didn’t like my effort, huh?
    Who’s Jerry?

    tlbd
    Oh, for some reason I thought you lived in Vic.

    GG: That’s an oldie, and a goodie at first hear(?)

  48. fess,

    In my early teens I lived on a sheep station on the Warrego. Magic nights. Sputniks were highlights. Very sad about Laika.

  49. [About 4 years back I started being sent to carbon conferences and such like. Wow was I amazed. However after three or four conferences something struck me. Same people same speeches………everytime.Ended up totally depressed that nothing will happem until the shit hits the fan. Nothing much changed my mind so far. Double . This gives hope though.]
    Of course when the sh*t hits the fan (I subscribe to the tipping point theories, things will get slowly worse but at some point it’ll get real bad, real quick. Like when the permafrost thaws out and we suddenly have things spiraling out of control.) and when that happens, as the armada storms blow the roof off and the chook pen floats away I’ll have the, albeit shallow, satisfaction of hearing Bolt and Jones accuse the government of the day of not taking action on climate change (the waynkers won’t admin to being wrong and along with their MSM mates will probably rewrite history). 😡

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