The latest Morgan poll combines the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveying, and shows a slight increase to the Coalition’s lead from the previous poll. Their primary vote is up a point to 46.5 per cent, with Labor steady on 36.5 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent. The headline two-party figure has the Coalition leading 55.5-44.5, up from 54.5-45.5. The usual caveats should be added: Morgan’s face-to-face polls have showed a consistent bias to Labor over the years, but in the case of the two-party vote this is more than cancelled out by the highly idiosyncratic tendency of Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences to split about 50-50 between the two major parties. Applying the more reliable method of allocating preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has gone from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47.
Other poll news:
• The latest seat-level Queensland state automated phone poll by ReachTEL targets 369 respondents in Lytton, to be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Deputy Premier Paul Lucas. It shows Labor’s 12.0 per cent margin set to be erased by a swing of 23 per cent, following polls indicating swings of 27 per cent in Stretton, 15 per cent in Ferny Grove, 26 per cent in Ipswich and 20 per cent in Bundamba. The poll for Lytton has the primary votes at 26 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP, 13 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party and 9 per cent for the Greens. ReachTEL’s imperfect two-party measure (“if you were forced to make a choice between the two following candidates who would you choose?”) has the LNP leading at 62-38. Standard caveat: ReachTel is a new outfit using a methodology which is yet to prove its worth, and all the swings indicated are well over the 13 per cent indicated by recent Newspoll and Galaxy polling. Labor will preselect its candidate for Lytton tomorrow, the contenders being Peter Cumming, a Wynnum-Manly ward councillor and Left faction member, and Daniel Cheverton, described in the Wynnum Herald as a former policy adviser to Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company.
• A poll conducted for Australian Marriage Equality as part of Galaxy’s online omnibus surveying finds 80 per cent support for a Coalition conscience vote on same-sex marriage, with only 14 per cent opposed. It also has only 25 per cent nominating Labor as the party that best represents its views on same-sex marriage, compared with 32 per cent Liberal, 3 per cent Nationals and 13 per cent Greens, with 17 per cent for “none/don’t know”. The poll was conducted from November 25-27 from a sample of 1051; see here for delightfully detailed tables. This follows a similar poll in August which had 29 per cent strongly agreeing that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 31 per cent agreeing, 14 per cent disagreeing and 18 per cent strongly disagreeing. A striking gender divide was evident, with women twice as likely as men to strongly support same-sex marriage and men twice as likely as men to strongly oppose it, along with effects in the expected direction according to age and religion.
Despatches from last weekend’s ALP National Conference:
• The recommendations made in the post-election review conducted by Steve Bracks, John Faulkner and Bob Carr were mostly scotched, wih largely cosmetic exceptions. Most importantly, a plan to have a component of the National Conference be directly elected by the rank-and-filed has been referred to an implementation committee which the Left complains is unlikely to seriously progress it. Most of the 400 conference delegates are at present chosen by the state branches, which are responsible to state conferences which consist of 50 per cent union and 50 per cent constituency party representatives. NSW general secretary and Right faction figure Sam Dastyari had proposed the direct election of an extra 150 delegates – one from each of the 150 federal electorates – but the Left favoured a model in which half would be directly elected by party members and the other half directly appointed by trade unions (a presentation of the Right’s proposals is available from The Age). The resulting strengthening of the unions’ arm was widely criticised, although the Right was accused of using this as a pretext to scotch reforms which, in the view of a Right source quoted by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald, “would have diminished the faction’s influence by diluting the factional balance among delegates”. Alternatively, VexNews presumably speaks for the Right in complaining that the postal voting proposed for election of Conference delegates would confer an advantage on the Left, while Graham Richardson in The Australian expresses alarm at the near-success of Left policy measures that would have “finished” Julia Gillard, and cautions against “the practical effects of electing conference delegates directly by the rank and file”.
• Also rejected were proposals to give the elected national president and vice-presidents voting rights on the 20-member national executive; for state and territory presidents and vice-presidents to be elected by the rank-and-file; for the party’s national appeals tribunal to be given greater independence of the national executive; and for national executive and state administrative committee interventions into preselections to occur “only as a last resort”. It will be left to state branches to decide whether to implement a proposal to have 20 per cent of the preselection vote in some seats to be determined by primaries open to those willing to register as Labor supporters. A Left’s-eye-view of the fate of the Bracks-Faulkner-Carr recommendations has been obtained by Andrew Crook of Crikey.
A solitary preselection nugget:
• The Weekend Courier Community newspaper reports the Liberals have again endorsed Rockingham real estate agent Donna Gordin as their candidate for the southern Perth seat of Brand, held for Labor by Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3 per cent.
Last but not least, the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published its report on the funding of political parties and election campaigns, the conduct of which was part of the minority government agreements reached between Labor, the Greens and the independents after the 2010 election. It reiterates a number of measures which featured both in the government’s reform attempts in the previous term, which were thwarted in the Senate by the Coalition and Steve Fielding, and in the terms of the minority government agreement:
• The threshold for public disclosure of donations to political parties and third parties to be cut from $11,900 and $1000, reversing a radical change made in 2006 by the Howard government, with different state branches of the same party to be treated as the same entity to prevent multiple undisclosed donations;
• Disclosures of donations to be reported six-monthly rather than yearly, with the new report further suggesting donations over $100,000 be disclosed within two weeks;
• Public funding of parties and candidates who poll over 4 per cent of the vote to be limited to reimbursement of proved spending;
• Foreign donations and anonymous donations of over $50 to be banned, and harsher penalties imposed for various offences.
The new report also recommends that:
• Money from fund-raising events be treated as donations and disclosed accordingly;
• Administrative penalties rather than rarely pursued criminal prosecutions apply for “straightforward” offences;
• Options be explored to cap spending by third parties for a period before an election;
• Registered political parties receive public funding to cope with the administrative burden of the changes (which I would be seizing on right now were I a tabloid hack).
What the report doesn’t recommend is donation and expenditure caps such as those which have been introduced at state level in New South Wales and Queensland, or the Greens-backed proposal for a ban on donations from tobacco companies (which the Greens successfully lobbied for in NSW). The terms of reference also did not require consideration of the “truth-in-advertising” requirement provided for by the minority government agreement. A dissenting report from the Coalition members again disapproved of higher disclosure thresholds on the unconvincing grounds that it would “significantly impact the ability of individuals to give donations to political parties without the potential for intimidation and harassment”. It also called for a dedicated electoral fraud squad in the Australian Electoral Commission, to deal with an issue the AEC itself does not recognise as a serious problem.
sustainable future
An excellent dismissal of the sort of rubbish that rummel espouses. Unfortunately he has the ability to ignore logic and revert to previous mantras when cornered.
I suggest you don’t waste your valuable time on him. Several of us have, in the past, pointed out his errors, but he remains cloth-eared. 😉
Just talking about CC is not much but at least all 194 are talking.
rummel,
[looks all very normal at the moment ]
You’re easily pleased. I’d love to know how you lot expect to reverse the current trend of higher temps and alleviate the negative effects from same?
If you are happy to just see them go higher & higher each year, then I hope your children & all their descendants curse you or at least pity you for your ignorance when they suffer the effects from CC/GW!
You’re lucky, you’ll miss most of the adverse effects in your lifetime. They won’t.
Ducky:
I was so glad it was a clear night last night. It’d been cloudy throughout the day, so I was expecting the worst. But by dusk it had cleared.
@tlbd – easy on the newts, vats and eyes – I’ve just had two Steinlagers. Moon vision – you did better than I did – one minute it was full with light cloud and the next time I looked only cloud so I gave up. If you were still watching at 2:30 I’m glad I did!
@kezza2 – Taking the p#ss – Seinfield 🙂 (poor attempt I know!)
[michellegrattan Michelle Grattan
can’t we just get this reshuffle DONE]
Impatient twat
Anybody’d think it was three-quarter-time of an under-10 VicKick final.
And what’s this “we” business . . .
fess,
2014’s not far away.
Michelle, ma belle,
Time for the Grey Havens of politics.
daretoread
He has a long history of doing everything, along with Tanner, to prevent Gillard getting preselection in Victoria. She just kept at it.
He is definitely a Rudd man. He’s reverted to hating Gillard.
Though, as other bloggers have said, he doesn’t keep friends very long.
[michellegrattan Michelle Grattan
can’t we just get this reshuffle DONE]
amazing isn’t it kezza? Add “this is boring” tweets from Crabbe, and the MSM are looking like bimbo cheerleaders waiting for Tony Abbott to ask them out to the prom.
What’s Grattan’s hurry? Does she have something better to do? Then by all means, retire, FO and do whatever is better than writing shit all day.
CTar1 1345
Agree with you there.
I believe he’s always been part of the Tanner left.
@feeney – That’s very polite.
george,
Michelle has a column to write and a Fran to chat to. Can’t keep recycling old stuff, you know!
[
kezza2
Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 7:43 pm | Permalink
CTar1
Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 7:34 pm | Permalink
“ten journos were in a bar, two were Irish, two were …
The actual quote is really a worse joke:
Inside were a group of nearly 10 journalists having a beer
Nearly 10?
What the hell’s that supposed to mean!]
They haven’t evolved to the point where they use their thumbs as well as the fingers to count, one has to assume it was over 8.
[He has a long history of doing everything, along with Tanner, to prevent Gillard getting preselection in Victoria.]
I assume you’re referring to Kim Carr.
If there is to be a reshuffle, I hope he goes.
OK
So we have established Carr is part of the Tanner grouping. But what has he DONE to upset people?
Amazing footage of the Japanese Tsunami.
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/12/10/trapped-in-a-car-during-the-japan-tsunami-dash-cam-captures-the-terror-video/
@fredn – Thumbs are for ears. Journos don’t actually listen. They’ve already got the story and plot but the picture is required.
On Michelle – It really is inconsiderate isn’t it. The story is published and the PM’s got her script and a job to get done. Bloody woman!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/as-the-world-watches-brussels-cameron-finally-recalls-murdoch-meeting-6275135.html
[As the world watches Brussels, Cameron finally recalls Murdoch meeting
Andy McSmith Author Biography
Saturday 10 December 2011
David Cameron had a private meeting with Rupert Murdoch at a time when the media mogul was bidding to take 100 per cent control of Sky television, the Cabinet Office disclosed last night.
The meeting took place in July last year – 11 months before Mr Murdoch finally obtained the go-ahead to buy the 60 per cent of Sky that he did not own – an ambition he has since put on hold while his media empire is engulfed in the phone-hacking scandal.
It was included as an “addendum” to a list of the Prime Minister’s meetings with outside organisations covering the second quarter of this year, which the Cabinet Office published on its website at around 6pm yesterday, when it was likely to attract minimal publicity.]
More in the article
Cameron Murdoch: Abbott Pell.
Interesting to not that I did a bit of online shopping with an Australian retailer and spend under $1000 and found the GST included. why can we GST local sells online but find the incoming from oversea too hard.
Again I find myself being disappointed with Canberra.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2072639/Tory-MP-pays-Oxford-educated-louts-toasted-Third-Reich-chanted-Hitler-Hitler-Hitler.html
[Tory MP pays bill as Oxford-educated louts toasted Third Reich and chanted ‘Hitler, Hitler, Hitler’
Friends boast Tory MP Aidan Burley high-fives Cameron and is ‘candidate for Berlin East’
They say ‘we are trying to intimidate as many people as possible. A lot have been offended, especially a man who was Jewish and gay’
Wearing Nazi uniform is criminal offence under French law
By Matt Sandy
Last updated at 9:05 AM on 11th December 2011]
Hello again briefly. I just saw a post that people interested in economics and Europe might find interesting. It was at the Fist Full of Euros blog and charted the course of the debt of each major nation in western Europe.
See
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/chart-of-the-week-imf-edition/
What is striking about the charts:
– most of Germany’s debt increase came from bailing out banks
– most of UK’s debt increase came from their revenue loss because the economy has tanked. Germany spent more on a stimulus and hasn’t lost so much revenue.
– Italy hasn’t bailed out its bans, but the higher interest rates have blown out its debt.
As for other matters, did Hughes and Warner’s opening stand reduce the need for a reshuffle? Oh, THAT reshuffle! If they are going to do it, now is the time.
After the EC cock up David cameron will be pleased that this joker is on his side.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2072639/Tory-MP-pays-Oxford-educated-louts-toasted-Third-Reich-chanted-Hitler-Hitler-Hitler.html
Do all conservatives have Alzheimers?
[Inside were a group of nearly 10 journalists having a beer.]
Rewrite: Inside was a group of 10 almost journalists having a beer.
Socrates,
The croquet team is doing OK. Hughes will go for Watson. Marsh, Ponting, Warner is interesting. Usman is likely safe.
Mex
An Australian business has a legal obligation to collect the GST. An OS business does not, so you have to rely on intercepting the goods as they enter Australia and imposing the GST as a separate charge
Scringler,
Ten straws?
mb,
How do you collect GST from off shore based companies over who you have no jurisdiction?
[Again I find myself being disappointed with Canberra.]
Not hard, is it?
Although if you’d been paying attention you would have known that it is GST on imported online purchases that we’re talking about – because it is too expensive to collect for items under $1000.
STOP THE WASTE! and all that ….
I saw something earlier today on here or somewhere else that Abbott had gone to London and got ‘advice’ from Cameron.
I don’t think that’s right – I think he may have managed to get a meeting in No. 11 with George Osbourne. He may have got a handshake from Cameron but more than that I’d be surprised.
[Rewrite: Inside was a group of 10 almost journalists having a beer.]
Further rewrite: Inside was a group of almost 10 almost journalists almost having a beer.
😀
GG,
Customs intercept the goods and charge whatever they
likehave to.kezza
It’s past Michelle’s bedtime!
Further theory in latest Rudd offence:
At some stage in his life Kevin has said “f**k”
At some stage in his life Kevin has said “the future”
After much learned discussion over a day’s production form the brewery, almost 10 journalists in a bar have concluded that he said “f**k the future” some time ago when we were all paying rapt attenetion to him.
[rummel
Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 6:10 pm | Permalink
No such thing as Global Warming/Climate Change? Are you sure? Are you really sure?
lol, there called storms and they have been happing for a while now. However i would love to see the evidence that points to these being climate change storms and how gillards Climate Change Tax will assist in moderating them in the future.]
>rant<
You really really haven’t got a clue.
I’m sure many have tried to point out to you that variation in the weather one way or the other is not proof of global warming;; global warming is.
But that is not the thing that really annoys me about you ignorant sods.
We are now part of the international carbon trading scheme, a scheme you are pretty much going to have to belong to if you want to trade with Europe. We are in early; it represents little more than a 2% redistribution of the GDP.
It is good solid policy that has set us up for the future; a future that will see us burning less of a non renewable resource; putting less shit in the air on out cites; and all you small minded lot can do it go on about is the weather in Rocky. Ecoticons are sadly lacking there should be one for the one finger solute.>/rant<
AJM – I am aware that an Australian based company is required to collect GST
GG – I am not sure but I suspect Canberra will in time work out a way but in the mean time they will lose revenue and then claim that they have a revenue problem.
TLBD
[Customs intercept the goods and charge whatever they like have to.]
That’s the thousands of Customs officials who don’t exist because it would cost too bloody much to pay them to collect tiny amounts of GST
[Further rewrite: Inside was a group of almost 10 almost journalists almost having a beer.]
Try 72: In or around the area were some people who may have been journos (one had a pen and another a camera). Nearby were premises that sell alcohol. There were no straws so we can assume that beer may have been served.
Shorten said the other day that this issue had been reviewed a number of times since the GST was introduced. However, the cost of collection would outweigh the revenue collected.
mb,
Canberra is a place. Don’t tarnish it. There are 226 federal politicians and only 4 are elected by the ACT.
[CTar1
Posted Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 8:34 pm | Permalink
@fredn – Thumbs are for ears. Journos don’t actually listen. They’ve already got the story and plot but the picture is required.]
So that is why they can’t count past 8 and have to talk about nearly 10. Thanks for the insight.
ajm
[At some stage in his life Kevin has said “f**k”
At some stage in his life Kevin has said “the future”]
There you go conclusive proof. Where is Boerwar when you need him?
ajm,
Just so. My stuff has only been intercepted once, a Microsoft Office cheapie from the US.
In remission.
[Ten straws?]
Yeah. Same thought. Didn’t happen in my day, as far as I recall.
tlbd
Very funny!
I don’t understand why customs can’t offer an online way of paying for GST (if applicable) so you don’t need to drive out to them to pay/pick up. Or is that possible now?
GG
[Shorten said the other day that this issue had been reviewed a number of times since the GST was introduced. However, the cost of collection would outweigh the revenue collected.]
Further, don’t you think that if some bureaucrat had been able to manipulate the cost of collection figures to show that it would be a good idea to lower the threshold, he or she would have gone for it to inflate their empire. The fact that no-one appears to have been able to do so is pretty good evidence that the analysis is sound. I worked in the Federal Public Service for over 30 years and have seen many inventive schemes for inflating empires so if no one has been able to make this one fly to date, I think its probably not from want of trying.