Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,204 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  2. Exam answer on 1975 from one of my students:

    [The Governor General Sir Garfield Barwick used his reserve powers to call a double dissolution and instate a caretaker government under Keating.]

    Very nice handwriting, mind you.

  4. [The positive side of Libya’s history is that as Greek historians and scholars were among the first to preserve in history, Libya was the home of civilisation Osiris & Isis made known “to the savage world”. According to Herodotus, the Greek Father of History, the ancient Libyans were the first to know civilisation and no one knew of Poseidon and Athena before them. Among the things invented by the ancient Libyans are the wheel, the chariot, the banking system (the Berber fortified granaries are a good surviving example of this), and the flute. The advancements made by the ancient Libyans in the fields of art, science, mythology and now mummification still are too complex to tackle and catalogue, as made difficult by the hundreds of thousands of prehistoric art paintings and engravings still lay scattered across Acacus waiting to be seen and then processed. Herodotus also reported that the Libyan Berber Nasamons were the first to venture into the Sahara and as such were the first northern people known to history to explore the Sahara desert – and yet conspicuously they never appear in any of the travel books covering the explorers of the Sahara. North Africa was originally inhabited by an indigenous group of ancient Berber tribes whose linguistic unity proves that an ethnic sub-stratum of “autochthones” single race existed in North Africa from the Mediterranean to the Sudan and from the Atlantic to the Red Sea. These people spoke a Hamitic language which together with ancient Egyptian, Chadic, Ethiopian, Semitic and Omotic make up the Afro-Asiatic family of languages – now thought to be the nucleus of many other major world language families]
    It is said that in Herodotus’ travels he mentions the people of Palestine.
    Israel is not having any of that & have created many IT sites trying to debunk any evidence of an ancient Palestine.

  5. [Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says allowing uranium sales to India is Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s personal initiative so ok not to consult.]

    what is missing from Latika’s tweet is that it is a personal initiative to be presented to the Labor Conference. It is not yet policy. In answer to a follow up question from Leigh, Kevin said that he agrees with the initiative.

  6. I was very impressed with Kevin Rudd’s statements about Tony Abbot on 7.5. He was very focussed and made telling points. He was also very clear about the PMs prerogative to raise the proposed change to the uranium export policy to India.

  7. Civilization is usually taken to presuppose the presence of agriculture and urban settlements, and as such is a consequence of the Neolithic Revolution.[4] This postulates that there is no single “cradle”, but several independent developments of civilization, of which the Near Eastern Neolithic was the first. The extent to which there was significant influence between the early civilizations in the Fertile Crescent and East Asia is disputed, while the civilizations of the Andes and Mesoamerica are accepted as having emerged independently from those in Eurasia.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cradle_of_civilization

    just saying……..

  8. [ru, that is like saying, i will earn $500,000 a year if only i have the will. you are crazy]

    I have earnt $500,000 in a year, why can’t you?

  9. TBS
    They will be our biggest ships. They will be helicopter ships with amphibious war capacity. They are somewhat of a regional provocation because they are essentially invasion ships. It is my sincere wish that the only use they will ever get is as very useful platforms for rapid disaster assistance. They would have been very useful during the Queensland floods.
    The only other likely use, IMHO, will be to suppress disorder in failed Pacific Island States, of which there should be a plethora over the coming decades.

  10. [The Governor General Sir Garfield Barwick used his reserve powers to call a double dissolution and instate a caretaker government under Keating.]

    ha

    they got it wrong

    Barwick wasnt his first name

  14. William

    I do hope you give him half a point. At least the facts (the existence of Barwick and Keating for example), such as they are, relate to Australia.

    By way of contrast, I imagine that Mr Perry and Mr Cain would have had far more imaginative responses.

  19. [AlfDeakin Alfred_Deakin
    That was a ridiculous interview by @LeighSales]

    I will read the transcript tomorrow. But from twitter and PB comments, it sounds like it wasn’t one of Sales’ best.

  24. shiftaling @ 111

    Bemused what you call a “wasted vote” (not exhausted) I call a freely expressed vote for a minor party by a voter who does not prefer either of the majors. In our system this is not possible

    I don’t recall using the term “wasted vote”. Please don’t verbal me.

    What it does represent is a voter who would not take personal responsibility for choosing between alternate candidates with a chance of winning. i.e. what they might see as the ‘lesser of two evils.’ Instead they prefer just to leave it to others, no doubt feeling ‘pure’ as they have not risked sullying their conscience with a difficult choice.

    Yes, my contempt shows.

  25. [ gusface
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:55 pm | Permalink
    carey

    biblical?

    what about

    china?]

    Mesopotamia has the first evidence of urban societies (about 5300BC), although the agriculture necessary to support such a society must have “cropped-up” earlier (pardon the pun). It also has the first dynastic civilisation (Sumerian) at about 3100BC. The first Chinese dynasty was supposed to be the Xia dynasty, which started about a thousand years later (2100 BC).

    Interestingly enough, writing seems to have cropped-up independently at about the same time in both places and also in India.

  27. [Exam answer on 1975 from one of my students:

    The Governor General Sir Garfield Barwick used his reserve powers to call a double dissolution and instate a caretaker government under Keating.

    Very nice handwriting, mind you.]

    Where he was soundly beaten in a landslide by the Australian Democrats, led by Don Dunstan?

  30. http://www.afr.com/p/national/us_australia_hit_back_at_china_criticism_KKM2Xn209VTT7ozhgxisdN

    [US, Australia hit back at China criticism
    David Crowe Chief political correspondent

    Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd has hit back at Chinese warnings about Australia’s new defence pact with the United States amid growing regional disquiet over a landmark policy shift outlined by US President Barack Obama on Thursday.

    Mr Rudd delivered a sharp response to China on Thursday night to keep out of Australian sovereign policy, as he strongly backed an agreement to base a US marine task force in Darwin.]

    Includes Rudd on ABCTV tonight. Says published 10 hours ago, but must have been updated. Worth a read.

  31. [The Governor General Sir Garfield Barwick used his reserve powers to call a double dissolution and instate a caretaker government under Keating.]
    Just a small mix up William. What the student meant was, in relation to 1975 was:
    “Sir Garfield Sobers, who was knighted in 1975 for his services to cricket, had tremendous power but always seemed to have something in reserve, either after scoring a double century; as a nightwatchman batsman; or as a key wicket-taker under Worrell.”

  34. I owe my existence to a Berber in an indirect way.

    Sometime in the 1910’s my grandfather was prospecting with a companion in the Egyptian desert. Thet were “apprehended” by a group of Berbers who intended to kill them and take their equipment.

    While they were beibg escorted to their, fate a lone Berber approached and angrily asked the group what they thought they were doing with his respected friends, and if this was the sort of hospitality Berbers extended to guests.

    The group sheepishly released their captives and moved away. The lone Berber, a total stranger, came closer to my grandfather and his companion and told them quietly to get the fuck out of there while they still could.

    Yes, my grandfather spoke fluent Arabic, and understood everything that was going on.

  35. [*Goes off to an evening of tripping the light fantastic*]

    bw,

    from your posts tonight it sounds like you have already been tripping…:wink:

  37. Nothing like having dinner at the Caboolture RSL, fair share of bogans but food is good. Having said that, back on topic. Our only real threat militarily is Indonesia, but their military is designed to keep their own citizens in order. Of course of major military challenge this century will be keeping the millions of dispossessed Indonesians (due to sea level rises and global warming) in Indonesia. It will probably be VERY ugly. Unfortunately tosspots like Abbott don’t have the imaginations to extrapolate the consequences of global warming to the social and political outcomes.

  39. I have basically stopped watching 730 Report, but tonight, in a bit of weakness, I relearnt why. What absolute rubbish. The interview of Rudd from whomever that woman is, was a complete waste of resources; test pattern would have been more informative.

    It is a bit sad when the best TV (“video”) coverage I have seen on the military decisions’ implications on Australia has been the US PBS, rather than what I imagine the ABC would laughably consider its flagship current affairs TV programme.

  40. [Mr Rudd when PM made a point of not following the US lead on Indian nuclear issues. That Ms Gillard has reversed this would not be pleasing to him. Note that he is making a special point of not endorsing the Prime Minister’s decision.]

    Boer — he did say he supports the PM’s decision.

  41. [Sometime in the 1910′s my grandfather was prospecting with a companion in the Egyptian desert. Thet were “apprehended” by a group of Berbers who intended to kill them and take their equipment.]

    Geez Fulvio, who was your grandpa? Indiana Jones?

  42. Just to finish my PR thesis.

    I missed Iceland – yep you guessed it PR always a coalition since telling Denmark to knick off.

    For the finale Portugal. (lovely place I lived there once) Elected by universal suffrage according to a system of proportional representation.

    So yep you guessed it all the basket case economies in europe have one common characteristic – PR. 🙂

  43. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says the truth is that Julia Gillard did NOT consult him about selling uranium to India.]

    this is what shits me about our media

    innuendo to fuel another go at ruddstoration

    *head desk*

  45. btw

    finns

    re the USA

    u iz WronG

    ru is correct re the money thingo

    (tho it would take about 3-5 yrs to get back what the uber rich have gouged out of the us banking/stock system)

  48. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Kevin Rudd says Tony Abbott was embarrassing and unprimeministerial by taking cheap shots to score domestic political points re Obama speech]

  50. Kevin Rudd’s responses to Leigh Sales attempts to get him to change his formulation of words on the ALP leadership seems entirely reasonable, and the sort of thing that any politician would, and should use.

    Despite the very low order of probability that he may ever again become PM, why should he rule out even that remote possibility, and why on earth should he be required to do so by a mere journalist? No-one can predict the future with any degree of assurance, certainly not in politics, so why should any politician of any party be required to use a ‘never ever’ set of words and risk the endless replays of such words that these same journalists would throw back in their face if political circumstances changed?

    Rudd was certainly much more forceful in his comdemnation of Abbott’s totally inappropriate and partisan words in Parliament today, and also adept in sidestepping Sales’ clumsy attempt at a ‘gotcha’ question on the appropriateness, or otherwise of whether or not he was ‘consulted’ by the PM about her decision, and in agreeing that he supported the PM’s decision to bring the uranium sales to India issue to the National Conference in December.

    All in all, a solid and professional performance by the Foreign Minister, but no doubt insufficient to prevent the usual suspects from scribbling their predictable poisonous columns shrieking of the imminence of a Rudd Challenge.

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