Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.
harry
so what about NW cape tindal etc
do we just say cllear off?
aamoi
the marine combat corp is a fully integrated unit
(land sea air)
– we can learn a lot and also have access to the latest tech and weaponry
On our home turf!
Huzzah
[William
I am not quite so sure that you can ALWAYS assume hat preference distribution will be same as last election, especially if circumstances change.]
You will of course never get exactly the same preference distribution from one election to the next, but changes in circumstances would have to be very substantial indeed for the previous election method to give you less reliable results than respondent allocation.
[ For example currently we have:
1 The emergence of the Katter Party – How they say they will preference is important as there is no reliable past history]
This party will only feature in one state, and it will find it a lot tougher going at a federal rather than a state election, given that the main motivation in voting for it is discontent with a Liberal-National merger that doesn’t mean all that much at federal level. The existence of one more right-wing minor party in Queensland does nothing to persuade me that the national preference split for “others” will be substantially different next time.
[2. The whole issue of the Greens and their relationship with Labor. While the CT is likely to encourage many Greens to preference Labor as previously, the stance on AS, Assange, Palestine and now uranium sales could well turn many off. There seems to be a growing battle between Greens and Labor (especially on PB) and if this is reflected in the voting arena, it could happen that many greens (say 3/10 rather than 2/10) preference Libs not Labor.]
They’ll preference Tony Abbott instead? I don’t think so.
[I noticed it on Sky, she has dropped the Abbott aggro.]
#libspill?
[jaundiced view
Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:14 pm | Permalink
The other high point of Rightariat-ism this week was Gillard’s ‘concession’ to the progressives and public opinion by ‘allowing’ a ‘conscience’ vote on gay marriage. Note the inverted commas indicating the three card trick by the catholic right.
Fortunately they are not getting away with it – enough people recognise it is just a wrecking strategy to ensure the legislation is not changed.
Of all people to be sent out on the airwaves as a defender of the indefensible yesterday was Father Don Farrell, the deadest of all dead hands. He was completely incapable of hiding the obvious, but not once did he mention the reason for this carry-on is nothing more and nothing less than religion.]
I fail to see why it should be anything other than a conscience vote, what in the hell has it got to do with the labor party.
Go after the members instead of the system
[The Finnigans
Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
Gussie, can you choose your neighbour?]
Regrettably, no.
If we could I’d choose Norway to the north, Sweden to the south and (just for a bit of fun) Cuba to the west – good music, grog and cigars. I guess I’d leave the Kiwis where they are.
Ruawake
[Did anyone notice the dramatic change in style from JBishop last night on LL?
I noticed it on Sky, she has dropped the Abbott aggro.]
I’ve not seen anything today. Is Rabbott also projecting calm & reason?
I know it’s trivial, but does JulieB’s new hairstyle indicate a thrust for leadership? After all, she couldn’t lose any weight to make the point. But someone tell me, is it a wig or not? It never moves.
Furthermore, the proposition that “there seems to be a growing battle between Greens and Labor” seems to me to be perfectly false. Try reviewing PB threads immediately after the Rudd government announced its carbon reduction target if you think otherwise.
[Eh? If you don’t preference in the HoR, then your vote is informal]
Of course. Which is why I wrote “Nobody forces Australian voters to allocate preferences other than what the voter decides.” No Australian voter is forced to preference one of the major parties, as shiftaling asserted.
People can agree or otherwise about our current electoral system, but some of the statements which flow from those who don’t like it are quite simply nonsensical.
[I’ve not seen anything today. Is Rabbott also projecting calm & reason?]
There wouldn’t be enough Valium in Canberra to achieve that.
Confessions if you don’t preference either lib or labor your first pref is not counted.
Bemused what you call a “wasted vote” (not exhausted) I call a freely expressed vote for a minor party by a voter who does not prefer either of the majors. In our system this is not possible
Whatever happened to the retired lawyer known here as Charlton.
Just when I was beginning to warm towards him, too …
gusface
[libya
like most post colonial states, is an artificial construct
(think vietnam)
the issue of ethnicity will dog a lot of e colonies for a while yet]
Libya was basically 3 different countries. The creation of Libya by the UN no doubt seemed a good idea at the time. Perhaps what we are seeing is the reestablishment of Tripolitania,Cyrenaica, Fezzan.
Lets look at basket case democracies
Italy – Party List proportional wankery
Israel – D’Hont wankery with 2% wank off
Greece – reinforced proportional representation, who would have thunk it
Ireland – yep same again pr gridlock
Spain – block lists by proportional representation
The defence rest, want a basket case country. PR is for you.
[Furthermore, the proposition that “there seems to be a growing battle between Greens and Labor” seems to me to be perfectly false.]
The truce william, the truce
and actually there has been some V reasonable debates of late
i’d suggest that the ahem false flaggers and potstirrers have gone to ground
I think you’re missing the point, Confessions. If you don’t number every box in sequence, and hence favour one major party over the other, your vote – including your primary vote – isn’t counted. You must therefore choose between Labor and Coalition if you want your vote to show up in the minor party’s total. Whether or not you choose to be guided by the minor party’s preference recommendation in making that choice is a different subject.
fredn
It is about the removal of blatant discrimination across the country. Only the Federal parliament can remove it. The Labor party controls the executive. If it introduced the legislative change it would be passed in both houses.
THe ‘conscience’ vote is the only way the catholic right can prevent the issue getting up by relying on the Liberals and Nationals to mostlly vote against it with the, yep, ALP Catholic right. It is a transparent ploy.
If a National party member introoduced a private member’s bill to repeal some aspect of existing anti-discrimination law, there would be no conscience vote.
This is an appalling look for Gillard as a sycophant to the Catholic right. Sycophant twice in one week.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Forget it. USA doesnt have any money to fight another war anywhere. Let alone in Asia. Exhibit 1: Libya. Exhibit 2: North Korea
7 seconds ago
BK
[There wouldn’t be enough Valium in Canberra to achieve that.]
LOL
I just thought JBishop’s performance on LL was in absolute stark contrast to the usual.
Some PBers had suggested that the Rabbott may return & present himself differently due to the growing criticism.
Dawkins spare me!
The egregious Chris Uhlmann has just used the idiotic allusion of China as “the Giant Panda in the room!”
And this from the nation’s public broadcaster? Mark Scott, it’s time to make the call like Kerry Packer did all those years ago – “get this shit off my network!”
poroti
for the life of me i cant find a reference to an ancient libyan sic civilization (gaddaffi actually supressed research into em)
will dig thru my books again
[the marine combat corp is a fully integrated unit
(land sea air)
– we can learn a lot and also have access to the latest tech and weaponry
On our home turf!
Huzzah]
Jeez Gus, you’be been watching The Sands of Iwo Jima agian, haven’t you? I’m half expecting you to break-out singing the Marine Corps Hymn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKkflXlh3C8
gussie @ 101.
I’m sure there are positives such as learning and so forth, what concerns me are possible negatives. There are usually both, after all.
BTW, Kevin Rudd giving a good account of Labor on 7.5
Gus, wasn’t Libya (and surrounding deserts, for that matter) the wandering grounds of the nomadic Berbers from times immemorial?
121
gusface
[poroti
for the life of me i cant find a reference to an ancient libyan sic civilization (gaddaffi actually supressed research into em)
will dig thru my books again]
Libya was just what the romans called north africa (except Egypt). The guy that was installed as boss cocky king type of the UN created Libya actually pleaded for the three regions not to be joined together. Not that it stopped him taking the job. But then as Mel said http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZKiYgcgBAY
smithe
ha
actually been rereading some of curtins musings just afore and during ww2
aamoi he was a pacifist but overtime came to understand our unique situation
G
I agree that we will gain direct benefit in terms of training and skills for our two new big ships.
[Jeez Gus, you’be been watching The Sands of Iwo Jima agian]
Of USA beat the shit out of the jap, with John Wayne, USA would whip anyone, even Genghis Khan
Gus
We need a big brother eh
Yuk
But if big brother has taken to drink partying and his girlfriend dio you really think he will go out of his way to help his little bro. Pigs fly.
USA will do what all nations do – look after itself. If there is a war with China the USA will only be here to stop China getting access to resources. I doubt they would defend Tasmania.
In case no one noticed the US is broke. It will not be defending anyone much.
[Confessions if you don’t preference either lib or labor your first pref is not counted.]
Thanks for being clear.
[Whereas the above ancient map of Libya, which is over 2000 years older than the colonial map, shows there was no Egypt, just a huge expanse of land known to classical geographers and historians as Libya, to the extent that the name Libya also came to designate the whole of the continent of Africa. For more information about the native inhabitants of ancient Libya, including the Berber tribes of the Delta and the western banks of the Nile, please visit The Temehu Tribes of Ancient Libya. When the Romans arrived through the western parts of Libya (Tripolitania and Tunisia), they adopted the name Aprica or Africa from the Berber name of the local tribes who inhabited the region, and thereafter Libya became known as Africa. This means that the names “Libya” and “Africa” are both Berber in origin.]
http://www.temehu.com/Cities_sites/Libya.htm
poroti
yes a think there was place called carthage too
*smile*
this link frrom wiki sorta throws a bit of info into the mix
but it aint the peeps i was talking about
[Fulvio Sammut
Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:34 pm | Permalink
Whatever happened to the retired lawyer known here as Charlton.
Just when I was beginning to warm towards him, too …]
Me too. Dunno what’s happened.
[for the life of me i cant find a reference to an ancient libyan sic civilization (gaddaffi actually supressed research into em]
I think it was governed by Carthage for a time, then Rome of course.
The cradle of civilisation, it ain’t.
Could make it to out-house status, I suppose.
Kev is certainly serving it up to Leigh baby. Whoa, don’t think she’ll try that again.
Boerwar, I don’t think you can fault that for solid support for the PM.
Leigh Sales was trying, very trying. Kevin Rudd wasn’t buying any of her nonsense.
[BTW, Kevin Rudd giving a good account of Labor on 7.5]
Kevin giving Leigh a geography lesson, a linguistic lesson, what can’t you understand about “I’m happy being FM”, and tears shreds of Tony Abbott for his effort in Parliament this morning.
William:
Yes, I understand now that shiftaling has explained what s/he meant.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Kevin Rudd sticks it up Tony Abbott arse #auspol
3 minutes ago
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says allowing uranium sales to India is Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s personal initiative so ok not to consult.]
What’s the bet this won’t get mentioned in reports about the uranium sales motion.
[In case no one noticed the US is broke. It will not be defending anyone much]
The US dollar is the worlds reserve currency, did you notice when Europe news is bleak the USD appreciates, investors retreat to the safe US Dollar.
The US is far from broke, it could return to surplus next year if the political will was there.
I wasn’t watching, just listening. Did Leigh look crestfallen?
[I think it was governed by Carthage for a time, then Rome of course.
The cradle of civilisation, it ain’t.
Could make it to out-house status, I suppose.]
pray tell where is the cradle of civilisation?
G
Check the Goths, Vandals or some such. I have only a very hazy memory of this. If correct, they went through Spain and then conquered their way across North Africa before setting up some sort of Goth/Vandal kingdom in Libya.
[pray tell where is the cradle of civilisation?]
Mesopotamia.
[pray tell where is the cradle of civilisation?]
Mesopotamia….Iraq. That place we just blew the crap out of.
[I wasn’t watching, just listening. Did Leigh look crestfallen?]
tlbd,
Leigh was looking around for a hole in the floor to jump into.
carey
biblical?
what about
china?
Boerwar @ 127
[I agree that we will gain direct benefit in terms of training and skills for our two new big ships.]
There’s a new ‘Big Ship’ somewhere? Why wasn’t I told about this moniker infringement?
[The US is far from broke, it could return to surplus next year if the political will was there.]
ru, that is like saying, i will earn $500,000 a year if only i have the will. you are crazy
HSO
[Kev is certainly serving it up to Leigh baby. Whoa, don’t think she’ll try that again.
Boerwar, I don’t think you can fault that for solid support for the PM.]
You spoke too soon:
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says allowing uranium sales to India is Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s personal initiative so ok not to consult.]
Mr Rudd when PM made a point of not following the US lead on Indian nuclear issues. That Ms Gillard has reversed this would not be pleasing to him. Note that he is making a special point of not endorsing the Prime Minister’s decision.