Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,204 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  6. Too many people get confused, Ruawake. It’s Morgan’s poll and 56.5-43.5 is what they’ve published, so it seems to me that the headline should say so. I don’t feel great about it, but as far as I’m concerned the blame lies with them.

  7. [And my prediction for the next Newspoll is 51.5 Coalition, 48.5 Labor 2pp.]

    Since Newspoll doesn’t publish to decimal places (except in final pre-election polls), I confidently predict that will not occur.

  8. After my last effort I’m not predicting Newspoll this time however if I were to I would probably say 52/48 and Gillard taking a 4-5 point lead as PPM.

  12. [Not for no reason do I have a higher success rate on confident predictions than Malcolm Mackerras.]

    bilbo, at least MM got his pendulum swinging correctly

  14. leone
    (copied)

    [They also talked about … similarities between America’s and the Liberal-National coalition’s policies on tackling climate change.]

    Did Abbott write it all down or was it just his usual fib?
    (Remembering this seems to be Abbott’s take on what they said, not Obama’s)

  17. lizzie

    It’s just Abbott’s version of what was said. No cameras, no reporters in there with him, so he’s probably lying through his teeth as usual. JB doesn’t seem to have revealed what she said. It was only about a 15 minute chat anyway and Motor-mouth would have done his usual non-stop yammering for most of it.

  20. I thought I might repeat a post, given that it was late in the last thread. I rather enjoyed Socrates’ comment but was mystified by the comment from RUA. IMHO, far from being ‘insane’ each of the propositions is arguable and is worthy of consideration by thoughtful Bludgers.

    I would add a prediction: The US military will make substantial reductions in Europe as well as in the US itself. The cuts have to come, and they have to come from somewhere. And who would want to invade Europe these days?

    So, what has been achieved in the past day or so?

    (1) We have reinforced our US client state status, reducing our options to manoeuvre in our own interests, rather than in US interests, now and in the future.
    (2) We have confirmed US soft power in Australia.
    (3) We have confirmed that we are willing to have the US military permanently in a position where it can severely damage the Chinese economy by halting the flow of Australian iron ore and coal. This will surely encourage China to speed the establishment of alternative sources of supply, potentially undermining our terms of trade and our price margins.
    (4) We have encouraged a potentially dangerous escalation in competition between the US and China.
    (5) We have encouraged those in the US who wish to stay engaged in the Asia/Pacific rather than go isolationist.
    (6) We have tilted our balance of friendliness slightly towards India which will improve relations with India but which may also serve to further encourage a Pakistan/Chinese axis.
    (7) We have reinforced a system of governance whereby critical foreign policy decisions are made without the benefit of scrutiny by parliament.
    (8) We have made it more likely, rather than less likely, that we will be forced into any war between China and the US whether we like it or not.

  21. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Obi mentioned how Aussies & Yanks fought in WW1, WW2, Korea, Afghan & Iraq. What about Vietnam War. You are obviously ashamed of it. #auspol
    6 seconds ago

  24. [It’s just Abbott’s version of what was said. No cameras, no reporters in there]

    I don’t mean to be pedantic, but these meetings are supposed to be private talks. There’s a reason the meeja aren’t invited.

    And for Abbott or anyone else to ‘verbal’ the Prez as to what was said is just rude. Damn poor form.

    Again.

  25. Sorry, Confessions, no intention of verballing you, I was responding to your responses in the last thread:

    [“If you don’t like Labor policy, then don’t vote Labor.

    Simple.

    …

    Then don’t preference the ALP either.”]

    Just pointing out that you have to preference every candidate bar one, so you’re forced to preference a major if you want your first pref to count, that’s all.

    I’ll stop now and let discussion stay on topic in the new thread.

  27. It looks like the trend had flattened out to somewhere around 46/54.

    It will be interesting to see whether Labor gets a renewed impetus from the visit by the POTUS and from some brand differentiation from the Greens.

    Ms Gillard should get a further improvement in her numbers in the next Newspoll, IMHO.

  29. [Obi mentioned how Aussies & Yanks fought in WW1, WW2, Korea, Afghan & Iraq. What about Vietnam War.]

    Well, they were late for the first two, but certainly keen as mustard and rarin’ to go for the others.

    As for Vietnam, it’s the war the US would rather forget.

  30. rua

    Your ad hominem viciousness mystifies me. I did not mention Libya.

    But, since you have raised it, I could point out that most of my predictions were accurate and that, with around 150 heavily armed groups of Libyans with tribal and/or locational affinities rather than national affinities, the full consequences of the Half-arsed War of Libya have yet to work itself out. We do know, according to the BBC, that murder is now commonplace.

    BTW, one of my predictions was that, because of the scope creep engaged in by the West on resolution 1973, it would be some time before the UN ever supported a similar resolution.

    Hence the current international impasse on Syria.

  31. boerwar 20

    amen. today was a day of disgrace. gillard is at least two strikes down in foreign policy – the first was UN on Palestine. didn’t people predict she was inexperienced in FP and this would happen. was whitlam the last PM to speak of this country as an independent one? the sycophancy today was as bad as any american president visit. pity brown was muzzled. formality and welcoming was one thing – the visiti was fine, he is welcome. but where is the speech making??? (abbot is a mast … pen …)

  33. Finns

    [BW, no worries. Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc has got you insured for insanity for a mozza.]

    Aha, I can’t lose. Oho, on the other hand, I can’t win either.

  34. Boerwar…you are a real misery guts today ole son..by the actions of the defence forces in darwin at the moment they dont share your gloom and doom, but not to worry they are only the defence force. Best to be safe at home on a blog and leave it to them 🙂

  35. Regardless of how you view the politics of the US President, you have to acknowledge his mastery of the set speech. He always looks and sounds very natural, with that movie star smile and easy manner with people in the crowds. Even his more studied approach at press conferences reflects his deep thinking on the issues, and he never seems hurried in his measured answers.

    The guy’s got a lot of class, and makes GW Bush look like a wax dummy … which come to think of it is not that far from the truth, with Dick Cheney’s hand up his back.

  38. [you are a real misery guts today ole son..by the actions of the defence forces in darwin at the moment they dont share your gloom and doom]

    David, what a great gauge to check the weather….let’s not think more deeply just throw all our hats in the air.

  39. [Big Ship, Obi’s political skills are unmatched]
    Except for Hillary of course. Julia would have got genuine tongue from her, not this double cheek pretence of Barack’s.

  40. Well wiliam

    Why don’t u put the figure at the top, as it should be done in line with other polls.
    Why don’t u ask mr morga n
    WHY he choses to do his polling in a completley different format to other companies

  41. Well wiliam

    Why don’t u put the figure at the top, as it should be done in line with other polls.
    Why don’t u ask mr morga n
    WHY he choses to do his polling in a completley different format to other companies

  42. d

    It is dangerous to rely on the military to sort out foreign policy. History is littered with examples of FAIL.

    It may have escaped you that one of the points I made is actually a positive. There is always conflict in the US between isolationists and those who wish to engage o/s. With the grave economic situation inside the US, the isolationists have a bit of an edge at the moment. Hence the positive I have identified is that the US has announced a firm intention to remain engaged in the Asia/Pacific region.

    My view is that, up until now, the Chinese have also quietly accepted the benefits of US engagement in Asia. The geopolitical stability this has engendered, since the Vietnam War, has enabled China to focus heavily on economic development.

    However, that the balance of power, that sharing of power between the US and China is at risk if the US shows signs of escalating its military forces in the region.

  43. Being disdainful of false modesty, and believing credit should be given when it’s due, especially to me, may I say that I’m a little hurt that no recognition has been given to my prescience over the last four months in predicting the trend back to Labor, while others lost their heads in an orgy of despondency and gloom, and not only predicting it, but predicting accurately its progress poll by poll up to the present.

    You have all been a great disappointment to me.

    Now I’m off to my Narcissists Anonymous meeting.

  45. BW

    I agree with you

    Shock horror

    Actually on foreign affairs matters I usually do.

    This new policy is just a restatement of

    All the Way with LBJ

    Should it perhaps be:

    Lick the bum a
    Barack Obama

  46. Having 2500 American troops stationed in Darwin (on our base) has just increased the number of professional soldiers in Australia by around 10%. As far as I can see its not that bad an idea. Given the interconnected economic situation in Asia major wars are a think of the past. The occassional spat on the borders of Cambodia and Thailand are about it.

  47. Finns

    [Aha, I can’t lose. Oho, on the other hand, I can’t win either.

    BW, are you crazy?]

    I hestitate to reply with a flat yes or a flat no to that one.

    If I am crazy then that would be good because I would get an insurance payout. But my company takes a hit on the crazy insurance payout.

    OTOH, if I am not crazy that would be good but would have just wasted a crazy insurance premium.

  48. The Skynews hosts in Darwin for the US President’s visit (Selena Edmonds and some other stuffed shirt I’ve never heard of, but hope never to see again) have been absolutely abysmal, with no knowledge of the history of Darwin in WW2, nor any real appreciation of the signficance of the President’s visit.

    Their noisy voiceovers and inappropriate interruptions during some of the solemn moments like the wreath laying at the USS Peary Memorial were an embarrasment, and an insult to the fallen.

    The only saving grace was a very well-informed local historian who put the gauche Skynews upstarts in their place by focussing on the facts of what happened in February 1942. A pity that they don’t let the experts do all the talking, and dispense with the blonde bimbos and hair-gelled pinheads.

  49. The noun of the week is definitely “sycophancy”, and the adjective is “rampant”.

    It’s so easy to gain a few votes from the glow of a US president when you have no foreign policy imperatives of your own.

    Much harder to use the occasion to also diplomatically, intelligently and firmly spell out our independent priorities where they do not match those of the sycophantee. None of that from the Israeli-apologist ALP right though.

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