Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,204 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Except for Hillary of course. Julia would have got genuine tongue from her, not this double cheek pretence of Barack’s.]

    Classy! Not.

    And for the record, I think domestically in America things would be a bit different if she had become president in ’08. Far from perfect for sure, but I think she’d have done a better job of sticking up to Republicans rather than going for ‘bipartisan’ crap.

  2. Lizzie
    [Did Abbott write it all down or was it just his usual fib?
    (Remembering this seems to be Abbott’s take on what they said, not Obama’s)]
    Have just come home & have neither seen or heard any news.
    Do you mind telling me what the Rabbott said??
    Thanks in advance! 🙂

  7. [Being disdainful of false modesty, and believing credit should be given when it’s due, especially to me, may I say that I’m a little hurt that no recognition has been given to my prescience over the last four months in predicting the trend back to Labor, while others lost their heads in an orgy of despondency and gloom, and not only predicting it, but predicting accurately its progress poll by poll up to the present.]

    since u were plagiarising moi, i thought better than to take u to task

  8. [If China decides that they will take our resources instead of paying for them, who do we call for help?]

    gee Ru, are you also crazy?

  10. SMAUG

    [Having 2500 American troops stationed in Darwin (on our base) has just increased the number of professional soldiers in Australia by around 10%. As far as I can see its not that bad an idea. Given the interconnected economic situation in Asia major wars are a think of the past. The occassional spat on the borders of Cambodia and Thailand are about it.]

    Um, the troops are the tip of the iceberg. We have been ‘massaged’. There will be increased visits by warships and warplanes. Crucially, there will also be ready-response war material stored in Darwin. Think of, ‘From little things, big things grow.’

    On your second point I do hope you are right. It would certainly be something entirely new for East, South and South-east Asia to go without significant wars for very long.

    The Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the Spratleys, territorial disputes between China and India, between China and Japan and between China and Russia, are all potential triggers for something fairly serious.

    Never to forget either, what the lunatic fringe in Pakistan might get up to were it ever to gain control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

  11. William

    I am not quite so sure that you can ALWAYS assume hat preference distribution will be same as last election, especially if circumstances change. For example currently we have:
    1 The emergence of the Katter Party – How they say they will preference is important as there is no reliable past history
    2. The whole issue of the Greens and their relationship with Labor. While the CT is likely to encourage many Greens to preference Labor as previously, the stance on AS, Assange, Palestine and now uranium sales could well turn many off. There seems to be a growing battle between Greens and Labor (especially on PB) and if this is reflected in the voting arena, it could happen that many greens (say 3/10 rather than 2/10) preference Libs not Labor.

  12. [If China decides that they will take our resources instead of paying for them, who do we call for help?]

    No worries. The Miners will run another advertising campaign and China will back down…

  15. [I did not mention Libya.

    But, since you have raised it, I could point out that most of my predictions were accurate and that, with around 150 heavily armed groups of Libyans with tribal and/or locational affinities rather than national affinities, the full consequences of the Half-arsed War of Libya have yet to work itself out. We do know, according to the BBC, that murder is now commonplace.]

    Hell, murder has been commonplace in Libya for years. Anyone the Colonel didn’t like got disappeared, right?

    So now we have 150 different tribes/political groups knocking each-other off for fun and profit.

    Vox populii, I say: Democracy with guns.

    That’s gotta be an improvement. Insead of one guy knocking-off his enemies, they’re all doing it.

    Soomne or later they’ll work something-out.

    They’d better, if they don’t want to end-up like Somalia.

  17. [2. The whole issue of the Greens and their relationship with Labor. While the CT is likely to encourage many Greens to preference Labor as previously, the stance on AS, Assange, Palestine and now uranium sales could well turn many off. There seems to be a growing battle between Greens and Labor (especially on PB) and if this is reflected in the voting arena, it could happen that many greens (say 3/10 rather than 2/10) preference Libs not Labor.]

    Yes, it is quite likely that some Greens will be attracted by the Libs’ progressive policies on AS, Assange, Palestine and uranium sales…

  18. Dee
    leone linked to a news report on Abbott and the Pres: Abbott said
    [They also talked about … similarities between America’s and the Liberal-National coalition’s policies on tackling climate change.]

    Abbott bignoting himself, we think.

  19. Dee. The best way is to go to the last thread. Scroll bak ti about 10.15

    U could also take the option of using the link for the entire speech, lol

    Tell u he truth I cannot remember what he said,
    The best bit ws when he got crab by because the potus did not meet his lot first

    After the potus speech

  20. Dee. The best way is to go to the last thread. Scroll bak ti about 10.15

    U could also take the option of using the link for the entire speech, lol

    Tell u he truth I cannot remember what he said,
    The best bit ws when he got crab by because the potus did not meet his lot first

    After the potus speech

  25. The other high point of Rightariat-ism this week was Gillard’s ‘concession’ to the progressives and public opinion by ‘allowing’ a ‘conscience’ vote on gay marriage. Note the inverted commas indicating the three card trick by the catholic right.

    Fortunately they are not getting away with it – enough people recognise it is just a wrecking strategy to ensure the legislation is not changed.

    Of all people to be sent out on the airwaves as a defender of the indefensible yesterday was Father Don Farrell, the deadest of all dead hands. He was completely incapable of hiding the obvious, but not once did he mention the reason for this carry-on is nothing more and nothing less than religion.

  28. [so you’re forced to preference a major if you want your first pref to count, that’s all.]

    That is not true. Nobody forces Australian voters to allocate preferences other than what the voter decides.

  29. [Never to forget either, what the lunatic fringe in Pakistan might get up to were it ever to gain control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.]

    Yes, well if the crazy Paki jihadis nuke us, I reckon we should stop playing cricket with them.

    [ gusface
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
    quick poll

    who should we have as our ally

    usa

    china

    india]

    All of the above.

  30. Lizzie & My Say

    I bet the Rabbott verballed Obama, he has no respect for protocol & confidentiality.

    Did anyone notice the dramatic change in style from JBishop last night on LL?

  31. [Mitchell Johnson saved by an injury to Ryan Harris. Young Cummins comes in.]

    BK, i refuse to watch the cricket until someone comes up with a logical explanation on how can a test team scored 44 after over 200s in the 1st inning.

    No, Bookie Singh is not a logical answer.

  35. smithe

    Ha

    yes it would be good to be non aligned

    but i think geopolitics would stop that

    i am unashamedly all the way with Obi and the usa

    history tends to suggest we need a “big brother”

  36. Despite a bit of huff and puff nothing much has changed over the last two days in our region.

    China will continue to buy our minerals and America will continue to have troops training in Australia.

    Both countries see the importance of this status quo and therefore nothing will change except perhaps a ramping of rhetoric.

    The real business is going on behind the scenes anyway. Not for public consumption as they say.

  41. [ The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:19 pm | Permalink
    who should we have as our ally

    usa

    china

    india

    Gussie, none. Indonesia is the answer.]

    After East Timor and West Irian?

    Not likely.

  44. Smaug @ 46.
    I wouldn’t be all that sure about wars being a thing of the past. If the past is anything to go by, war will also feature in the future. I draw particular attention to the accelerating rate of climate change and what that may mean for competition over scarce resources, not to mention significant numbers of people displaced by the effects of climate change. The spats on the borders of Cambodia and Thailand may be but precursors to more serious fighting, perhaps war.
    Like Boerwar, I’m not convinced the U.S. troops training in the N.T. is such a flash idea.

  45. [ When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters,]

    Given how close Australian polls are, you would get a result closer to the actual election outcome if you threw out the whole dam lot and just predicted an outcome that is the same as the last.

    It would also lead to very stable poll results.

  47. confessions
    [so you’re forced to preference a major if you want your first pref to count, that’s all.]
    [That is not true. Nobody forces Australian voters to allocate preferences other than what the voter decides.]
    Eh? If you don’t preference in the HoR, then your vote is informal]
    But more seriously you are not taking the necessary initial step back to see that our system, as in the UK and the US, is completely unrepresentative. It is the archaic single member district concept from the old elitist privilege days that stuffs our House of Representatives (and theirs). Whether FPTP or a hybrid makes not much difference.

    Both majors of course support he current rort it because it advantages them both at the expense of minorities. That’s why the advanced democracies have proportional representation because it does what it says. It results in a parliament directly representative of the level of support for all parties/ groups, incuding minor ones above a minimum threshold.

    Northern Europe, the new Eastern European states, South Africa and the Kiwis and most of the rest of the world enjoy fair representation; we do not.

  48. [The Finnigans

    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    Gussie, can you choose your neighbour]
    Personally speaking I wish I could choose my neighbors

  49. Doyley 86

    Well said. The funny thing about the structure of the global stage is it is such a flimsy structure that none of the actors want to upset it too much, lest it collapses, against everybody’s interest.

    This is also why China won’t bankrupt the US, this is why Kim Jong-Il will not make a nuclear attack and it’s indeed why our existing trading partners will remain so.

    However, being the anarchic state it is, keeping it together requires an awful lot of work.

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