Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. I’ll tidy that last post of mine up.
    [Gary re 3099 sorry missed your post. Yes I think the PM has improved in recent months which likely explains why the polls are improving.]
    I agree. She has improved which makes me belive she is capable of further improvement. She learns from her mistakes. Surely that must give her some chance of overcoming any further personal obsticles in regard to presentation.
    [For me personally she has a way to go because of the way she and the government handled the carbon tax issue.]
    Actually, I believe the carbon tax issue will become a plus for Labor and JG at the next election.

  2. The one thing I agree with Farnsworth on in his column is the msm obsession with the so-called ‘props’ Obama brought out with him: AF1, the convoy, his car, the security effort.

    Am sick of rolling vision of his plane taxiing runways, taking off, landing etc.

  4. [Latika Bourke
    @latikambourke
    Greens Leader Bob Brown says Barack Obama’s speech showed the previous speechmaker (Tony Abbott) how it’s done.]

  5. [we’ve got a very effective foreign policy/defence team of Rudd & Smith.]

    Now you’re talking, TLM. A very, very effective pair and well suited to their respective jobs.

    When I saw Howard sitting in the Gallery I thought – he hasn’t changed. For someone who spoke so snarkily about Obama I found it galling to think he’d want to be there.

    I guess I still haven’t forgiven him and Hyacinth for the way they treated the Labor women during the Clintons visit in the late 90s. It says a lot for Gillard that she genuinely laughed at Abbott’s jokes last night. The only smiles Labor gets from Abbott is when he makes a derogatory remark about JG or the Govt. which he knows the media will pick up.

  6. DavidWH @ 3126

    David there is plenty of repetitive stuff on PB most of it boils down to Julia can do no wrong and Tony can do no right. The saving grace is that often we do manage to get involved in discussions of substance although they have been scarce the past few days. Presidential visits tend to do that.

    There is a lot of truth in what you say.

    There are some excellent posts here but many are just over the top histrionics. (e.g. 3128)

    The trouble with that is it just detracts from the good posts.

  9. SkyNews must be getting bored with all this. I didn’t have to worry about missing the speeches this morning. They’ll probably keep running it all for yonks. Speers and Gilbert seem to be transfixed by the name Howard.

  10. On economic stuff, the situation is a bit like politics: Australia is doing fine at the moment, but the rest of the world is far from settled. Italian debt is worrying every commentator I take seriously, as this post shows:
    [If the ECB writes the check, the economic and market outcomes are vastly different than if they do not. Your personal outlook as an investor, business person or worker will change dramatically for decades to come based upon this one policy choice and how well-prepared for it you are.

    Crunch time. If prejudice and false notions of prudence prevail, the world is about to take a major change for the worse.]
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/italian-default-scenarios.html

    He even thinks Australia and Canada would take a major hit from Italian collapse or withdrawl from the Euro. Time to switch the super back to cash?

    For this and other reasons I wouldn’t burn my bridges with Beijing too soon.

  12. Someone raised a point yesterday that Tone is starting to age visibly and the hair is thinning with an expanding bald patch.

    It started me wondering just what Tone would look like in another decade or three…I thought long and hard and came to the conclusion. Billy Hughes!

    So George, there’s an idea for your cartoons…. morph Tone into Billy Hughes. The jug ears are there, the increasingly gaunt features…

  13. [ The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 11:24 am | Permalink
    Why is peta Credlin in the chamber?]

    Didn’t she have her hand up his clacker working his lips while her husband threw Abbott’s voice for the speech?

    As in the following:

    As for Laocoon’s enquiry:

    [ Laocoon
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 11:38 am | Permalink
    Finns
    Re the China People’s Daily report you quoted earlier (2780) …what is your assessment of that reaction: pro-forma to be expected or a 9.8 on the richter scale?]

    Definitely pro-forma. If they’s really cracked it, we would have had a spiel about the “peace-loving Chinese people being betrayed by the running dogs of American Imperialism” or something similar.

  17. Bemused

    [Someone raised a point yesterday that Tone is starting to age visibly and the hair is thinning with an expanding bald patch.

    It started me wondering just what Tone would look like in another decade or three…I thought long and hard and came to the conclusion. Billy Hughes!

    ]

    I was thinking Gollum

  19. The speeches today confirmed my perceptions of the various players. Obama is an excellent orator and the content was great. Drawing on genuine similarities between Australia and the US in origin, culture and outlook demonstrated why we are friends and allies. His admiration of the history of the relationship and achievements like The Apology reflected a man that was interested as well as interesting.

    Gillard was statesmanlike in her speech and it is clear that she is growing in confidence as her term in office extends. She’s clearly comfortable in Foreign Policy and her charm and style seems to be appreciated by other world Leaders including Obama. Of course the claim can be that it’s all for show and that Howard had a strong and personal relationship with George W. To this I say, good.

    Unfortunately with Abbott, he too confirmed my perceptions. Introducing partisan political issues into a welcome speech was rather tacky. Traducing Obama in to the Liberal politics of the Carbon Tax was extremely tawdry. But what do you expect from a political opportunist focussed solely on achieving power at the expense of articulating why he wants it and what he is going to do with it?

  23. Gary regarding the carbon tax I expect it to become less of an issue with time. There will be plenty of folks who will be happy with their compensation in July 2012 which will be a plus for the government. However that disguises the real impact of the legislation which will only bite in subsequent years. We have had precious little transparency of what the impact will be in 2015, 2020 and beyond. Surely the government doesn’t intend to continue to over-compensate selected groups as the impact increases?

    But the fundamental problem I have with the policy is the lack of addressing the core issue/problem in the absence of any global concensus. Anyone who heard what Obama said yesterday on a US emission policy would have to have serious doubts we will see any global agreement in the foreseeable future.

  25. The idea of 2500 US Marines in a small town like Darwin sounds like us getting royally rogered into a extremely bad idea for no significant strategic advantage?

    Gillard wants to careful of Australian ideas of dignity and balance here. I think she’s going way too far on several fronts.

    250 Marines will do it. Symbolic – small, manageable tensions in darwin. Leave it at that JG.

  27. The US Political Elites can’t grasp the changes taking place in the world…
    …but change.is coming .. wheather they like it or not !!
    ______________________________________
    This article by US academic/Viet.war hero.Andrew Bracevich who lost a son in Iraq,writes a telling article on the way the US political elites in Washington simplv can’t grasp the real meaning of the way the world is changing and leaving the US standing…
    The rise and rise of China/the Arab Spring.the emergence of Brazil and India as major powers.and the alarming collapse of much of US industry,are taking place while the US elites are in denial.
    A common error for declining. nations…..look at the British …who still think they rule the world

    His article is a dash of cold water to those who attach too much importance to Obama and others in the US

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/blog/big-change-whether-we-like-it-or-not/

  30. davidwh,

    Another variation on the “it won’t change nothing, so why do it” mantra of the whingeing conservatives. It’s going to be a terrible day when July 2012 happens and we’re all still alive.

    You guys are like that guru in America that spent most of his life predicting the end of the world.

    Get over yourself and enjoy yhe prosperity.

  32. A few trivial things I noticed during the morning (in between taking the cat to the vet and dealing with worried familiy members anxious about the condition of said moggy).

    Mr President shook hands with Tony Windsor twice – once as he entered the chamber and again as he was leaving – this time introduced by the PM. The PM also introduced Rob Oakeshott, she actually stopped the pres walking away and drew him back to meet Oakeshott.

    Speers and Gilbert on Sky News using every possible opportunity (and some barely possible) to say ‘Kevin Rudd’ and ‘leadership/prime minister’ in the same sentence. It got a bit boring, if I’d had some alcohol handy and had taken a shot every time they did it I’d be too sozzled to type now.

    The gall/hypocrisy of the members of the oposition – the same bunch who booed the announcement of Obama’s visit were this morning falling over themselves to shake his hand.

  33. Lefty e 3175 Re Darwin and US troops
    __________________
    If the tension on Okinawa (Japan)are any gauge the US troops in Darwin will soon turn local opinion sour
    On Okinawa the US troop[s…there since 1945 ….have created a climate of hostility which is now affecting US Japanese relations nationwide…rape/child abuse/drugs…the lot !

    Another problem is the low value of the US Dollar against the Yen ,which makes life outside the base difficult for the US soldiers..Japan is an expensive place..
    When all the fine words are said ,reality in Darwin may prove a nasty shock for the future.

  35. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Greens Leader Bob Brown says death toll in Iraq was one circumstance which then warranted his interruption of George W Bush’s speech.]

    Brown is a hypocrite – the death toll is much higher now than it was 8 years ago. The only reason he didn’t interject on Obama is because he is more popular here than Bush was, and it would’ve reflected very poorly on Brown.

  36. GG I accepted the fact we will have this carbon tax from the second Gillard announced her change of mind. For myself personally it will be cash flow negative but I can afford it so I will lose no sleep over it. It’s the people who will be sleeping more relaxed in the knowledge this will reduce our global emissions I have sympathy for. They are being misled. In the absence of a global concensus it will do diddly-squat for overall CO2 emission reduction.

  40. davidwh,

    The bi partisan objective is 5% by 2020. This is what the legislation seeks to achieve.

    All your rantings about consensusly misled diddly squats is the rhetoric of the whingeing conservatives who are simply intent on denying the Government any credit for getting on with the job.

  41. [But the fundamental problem I have with the policy is the lack of addressing the core issue/problem in the absence of any global concensus. Anyone who heard what Obama said yesterday on a US emission policy would have to have serious doubts we will see any global agreement in the foreseeable future.]
    The problem we have ATM is the congress, not the POTUS. If Obama wins the next election and the congress becomes Obama friendly then who knows what will happen re US concensus at least.

  42. Time will tell no doubt and no doubt there will be issues, but I would be very cautious about too direct comparisons between Darwin (2,500 US military over sparsely populated area) and Okinawa (~26,000 military in densely populated narrow area)

    [The area of 14 U.S. bases are 233 square kilometres (90 sq mi), occupying 18% of the main island. Okinawa hosts about two-thirds of the 40,000 American forces in Japan]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_Prefecture#U.S._military_controversy

    The cultural gap between Japan and US societies is also rather greater than AU and US

  43. BK

    [Ah you’re back poroti’
    You are responsible for me spending more than two hours watching old Les Patterson clips.
    Strewth he is so good.]
    You got the best end of the deal there. I just returned from a meeting with a patent lawyer ! Yes Les is very good. Praise be to youtube that we can watch such clips.

  45. [In the absence of a global concensus it will do diddly-squat for overall CO2 emission reduction.]

    It’s nice to have an opinion DavidWH, even if wrong. This is the beginning of a process that is inevitable if we are to switch to a future where polluting the planet isn’t a taken when trying to fuel our homes and businesses.

    What you fail to understand is that this is where it all begins, for each country, and whether it is the best system, or a compromise, in the long run, is irrelevant. This is about a struggle to move away from one form of technology, one form of power and control over humans to a whole other form. Those in control of the current one are not happy, and the Libs as a party are supporting the status quo. It is obvious when you consider who backs them behind the scenes.

  47. lefty e,

    If we had announced 25,000 you would probably have argued for 2500. Obviously, the people that actually organise these things haven’t got access to your over powering intellect and strategic nous.

  48. deblonay
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    Lefty e 3175 Re Darwin and US troops

    2500 US Marines in Darwin 6 mths of the year is a big number when compared to Australia’s total number of deployable Infantry troops of no more than 6000 at the most at any given time.

    6000 is probably an over estimation of what Infantry we would be capable of deploying at short notice – see comment # 2828 on Page # 57 for further details.

    I wonder when the media is going to ask whether these 2500 US Marines are going to be subject to Australian/ Northern Territory Laws while they are here or whether any *problem* will be dealt with under US Laws.

  49. Gary I agree the problem is the Congress and not Obama however that doesn’t change the outcome.

    GG there was a report out yesterday that showed Australia was ranked 22 out of the 97 countries included in the report for taking action on climate change and that was before the effects of the current legislation are factored in. The spin that we haven’t been pulling our weight is part of the distortion being peddled by the government and others that has a lot of people offside. We have been paying in our utilities for green programs for years. Also the 5% is a political target and not a meaningful target to make a real contribution to global emission reductions.

  50. DavidWH @ 3186

    GG I accepted the fact we will have this carbon tax from the second Gillard announced her change of mind. For myself personally it will be cash flow negative but I can afford it so I will lose no sleep over it. It’s the people who will be sleeping more relaxed in the knowledge this will reduce our global emissions I have sympathy for. They are being misled. In the absence of a global concensus it will do diddly-squat for overall CO2 emission reduction.

    All of your concerns pre-suppose that carbon intensity remains the same and that cost relativities of coal generation and renewables remains the same.

    Solar is already trending strongly downward and should be competitive with coal in a very few years. A price on carbon brings that day forward.

    Australia’s price on carbon and action by other governments will stimulate technological development. I am not worried about this aspect of the future.

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