Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  8. So does that mean that all recent polls have shown a move towards Labor?
    This should maintain the trajectory of Possum’s PollyTrend chart.

  11. [If the Govt improves 2% a month, by March 2012, it will be 52-48 to Labor]

    and by the election at end 2013 it will be 100-0 to Labor

  13. Considering this outfit had us more than 20 points behind a couple of months ago
    Correct me if I am wrong
    So all polls went up about 2 I the last week or so
    Who was the pb that predicted tis tonight,
    Who is the ghoast

  14. Pretty much what I expected the polling result would be. On the plus side for the government – it’s improving. But still a woeful result and one the Coalition would be happy with.

  17. I’m very interested to see the 2PP respondent allocated preference result as it’s consistently been better by +1 to +2 than the 2010 election preferences in the Nielsen poll this year.

  18. GD,

    Seems we are soul mates on cricket writings and commentary. If you can’t get enough Cardus check out http://booko.com.au/ and type his name.

    Four other recommendations, for very different reasons:

    WG’s “Cricketing reminiscences & personal recollections”
    Douglas Jardine’s “In quest of the Ashes”
    Cashman’s “‘Demon’ Spofforth'”
    Fingleton’s “Brightly fades the Don” – way the best bio of Don Bradman.

  20. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Nielsen shows Abbott’s nightmare is still 2 years, 104 weeks, 730 days, 17520 hours, 1,051,200 minutes and 63,072,000 secs #auspol
    13 seconds ago

  23. [Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Nielsen’s results in tomorrow’s Fairfax show the trend to Labor has continued for it’s 12th straight week
    34 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  24. Pollytics Possum Comitatus
    Nielsen’s results in tomorrow’s Fairfax show the trend to Labor has continued for it’s 12th straight week

  25. Itep

    Smile face. Why do u remind me of evan.

    Would. They be happy with newspoll would they be happy with Morgan
    Would they be happy with essential

    U always find the negative ,,,

  29. (From previous thread)
    Frank Calabrese
    [Along with a fellow Green Traveller of the species known for eating hay and Galloping]

    RU referring to me?
    If so, thanks for a great belly laugh 🙂

    I make very few posts, not even an average of one a day, yet u can’t stop thinking of me 😉

  31. Another declining poll for the Monkey. Wonder why?

    1. Opposing the governments border protection legislation.
    2. Opposing pokies reform.
    3. Opposing the industry supported mining tax

    NO.

    The next election is not over yet, not by a long shot!

  32. A continuing improvement for Labor but still a handsome result for Abbott.

    If Turnbull replaces Abbott, the improvement will stall.

  36. [I make very few posts, not even an average of one a day, yet u can’t stop thinking of me]

    Hey Horsey, i think of you day and night, even when i am in the deep deep blue.

  43. Peggy is it true that the Greens support a 100% reduction in carbon emissions and the closing of the coal industry?

    Wack-alack-aloopy-loon!

  46. From the police spokesman.

    [‘There was an incident around 9 p.m. on Saturday night when a British citizen who is a cricket commentator committed suicide by jumping from the sixth floor of his Claremont hotel. ‘He died on impact,’ van Wyk said.

    Van Wyk declined to comment on reports that the police had questioned Roebuck on Saturday and said they will ‘investigate all the circumstances’ around his death.
    ]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/cricket/article-2060931/Peter-Roebuck-committed-suicide-say-police.html

  47. U think. So do you, I would think. You as a labor person, should be looking at the 4 recent polls and doing the average

    Not so handsome for abbott, would u say

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