GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.
duck,
The code is strict and enforced
I have no scientific basis for the following observation but I think this is a pretty good poll in the circumstances. With the passing of the Carbon Price legislation elements of the MSM, particularly the Daily Terror, turned the misleading scare campaign up to hysterical levels. It is only today (too late for the poll) that some real facts have started to be written and broadcast by very high rating outlets.
[‘There was an incident around 9 p.m. on Saturday night when a British citizen who is a cricket commentator committed suicide by jumping from the sixth floor of his Claremont hotel. ‘He died on impact,’ van Wyk said.
Van Wyk declined to comment on reports that the police had questioned Roebuck on Saturday and said they will ‘investigate all the circumstances’ around his death.]
I stand corrected. I seem to remember, few years ago, Peter also involved in another “incidence” with the Police.
Diog,
You do realize that asif is rather a bad name in cricketing circles, don’t you?
It confirms the trend, even if the detail is a bit less encouraging than Newspoll. And as William noted, it’s Nielsen’s best polling for Labor since March.
Let’s hope the steady trend continues. On the other side, Abbott looks safe enough on those figures. It’s when they get closer to level-pegging that things might get a bit hotter for TA.
It will be harder for Abbott to get the geni back in the bottle again once Gillard’s support starts to rise, which it may with her international stage appearances continuing.
Relax people, it’s still 2 years, 104 weeks, 730 days, 17520 hours, 1,051,200 minutes and 63,072,000 secs to go and you dont turn around the polls in one or two go.
[Let’s hope the steady trend continues. On the other side, Abbott looks safe enough on those figures. It’s when they get closer to level-pegging that things might get a bit hotter for TA.]
Yup. Though the interesting thing is that the steadily moving polls are already starting to form a narrative of Labor coming back, Abbott starting to slip, Gillard becoming more secure (in the eyes of the media) etc: Its about time the feedback cycle between polls and media began to attack the Libs rather than the other way round.
Av comes out at,53.5/46.25_
CO,
ABbott is the colour and movement atm. The msm is focussing more on bad-Abbott than good-Gillard. Sad, really, because the PM is doing some very heavy hitting for which they do not want to give her credit.
Apart from all the speculation and gossip, Peter Roebuck has never been accused or convicted of under age sex, that should always be remembered amidst the rumours and gossip the puratanics among our society take great pleasure in indulging in…frankly they make me ill.
Diogenes – STFU
[insert here every shakespeare insult]
Why do most in the MSM, including Paul Kelly, continue to spin that Australia is leading the world on carbon pricing, given the global economic uncertainty, where NZ for 1. have already implemented an ETS?
Why are. U all just looking at one poll, especially this one
Centre. 32 countries have it let him know
Then we know he knows
I note Pollytics has Nielsen tracking closer to the trend line than the other three polls in the latest Pollytrend v Poll charts.
Abbott may look ‘safe’ on those figures…what he doesn’t look safe on, is the obvious trend towards Abbott you are fecked.
Ducy. So nothing s changed then. Just the peeps catching on them selves
To who is better to run the country
[ABbott is the colour and movement atm. The msm is focussing more on bad-Abbott than good-Gillard. Sad, really, because the PM is doing some very heavy hitting for which they do not want to give her credit.]
Remember, the view of some in the MSM is that nothing good is associated with her, but everything bad is. :p
Yes My Say.
Including California and a number of provinces in Canada apparently.
Abbott’s position of repealing the carbon scheme is untenable. He will eventually be replaced – and it will not be by Turnbull.
Trend david of course,
Neilson polls are always worse for us well so it seems,?
Why is that william
Centre. I wonder who then,
I’m knackered. Night all.
my say,
The only sense in which we are looking at one poll is that we are looking at the trend: how it varies from previous Nielsens.
When the next Essential comes out we’ll do exactly the same. It is the TREND within each poll that is of interest, albeit of little importance two years out from an election.
I wonder about joe,
Agreed ducky, some pb s seemed dissapointed, I always work on averages
My Say, the Liberals will have a great big brawl in their party. There are a number of people there with ambitions to lead the party including Julie B, Robb and Morrison, but the emerging victor will be:
Hockey Joe
Don’t know, My Say. Perhaps you get better samples for Labor if you poll on weekends (Morgan face-to-face is Saturday/Sunday, Newspoll is Friday-to-Sunday) rather than weekdays (Nielsen is Thursday-to-Saturday), because affluent people are more likely to go away for the weekend.
Thanks for that Ducky @ 18, and will follow up. Would like to try Cashman’s “Demon Spofforth”. Apart from astonishingly winning the Oval Test for Australia with a devastating spell and thus helping to create The Ashes tradition, Spofforth was the first, I believe, to introduce the concept of bending the back when bowling.
That way he was able to bring in variations of pace undetected by the unfortunate batsmen because his style remained the same. It was that variation, more than just the sheer pace (which he also had), which did the Englishmen.
It IS all about the narrative and who owns it. Up until the legislation was passed (all the legislation, CT, Plain Pkg etc) Abbott had the narrative based on the uncertainty, now the Gov’t is on the front foot because Abbotts narrative was Nooooooooo. Possum did an analysis of who owned what narrative for the 2007 elections.
Dio, further:
Scorn and defiance, slight regard, contempt,
And anything that may not misbecome
The mighty sender doth he prize you at.
Thanks William, mm have to think about that,
I think people are tired Thursday to sat, say the first thing that comes in to ones head, I actually hate
Phone calls on a friday night,
On the news tonight reference was made to an interactive web site where users can find out how a price on carbon pollution will affect their cost of living, as well as what a carbon price will achieve.
The tool was developed by the Climate Institute in cooperation with Choice and ACOSS and the cost data is based on independent analysis by CSIRO and AECOM.
http://www.yourcarbonprice.com.au/
Lab-Libs at work. Truly appalling
http://www.smh.com.au/national/disabled-boy-freed-from-adult-jail-20111112-1ncv2.html
Smaug. Gosh had not thought of that
swamprat,
Yes, I posted about that earlier today at http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/11/08/newspoll-53-47-to-coalition/comment-page-93/#comment-1085519
sorry Pegasus..
this is sad:
“the boy was afraid and had said: ”I can’t go home if I have to go on my own … I don’t know how to find my way home.”
Centre would that be the man who has yet to learn to count?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-10-11/hockey-accused-of-costings-con-job/2292866
11
No the thing about 2PP is that if a party (or in this case the Coalition) is not one of the top 2 most voted for parties it looses its status in the 2PP. At some point during this hypothetical decline to a 0% vote the Greens would pass the Coalition and get into the 2PP and so the ALP1s 2PP would not get much over 80%.
Swamprat,
Agree. It’s a disgrace.
[TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm Turnbull
“@matthewlesh: @TurnbullMalcolm do you think putting so much ‘leading’ information on your gambling survey you will skew results?” examples?
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]
did anyone do Malcolm’s pokie survey? he was quoting over 5,000 respondents this morning. Were the questions ordered to push poll?
in any case, he seems a bit sensitive to it.
steve have a look at the photo in the link you provided.
Does that look like a man who can count? Hehe
*night*
Labor would have been pleased with tonight’s TV news bulletins, especially the reporting on the Carbon Tax not hurting households as much as had previously been calculated.
There’s a long way to go until the 2013 election, as Julia and her troops would well know. This new poll should be sobering for the ALP and Poll Bludger Laborites – you won’t tear down Abbott in a couple of weeks, it’ll take all of next year to undermine his case for an election victory.
Finally, this news about Peter Roebuck is really very distressing, particularly for one who’s taken pleasure from listening to him on ABC radio and reading his contributions in the Fairfax press – prayers go out to his loved ones and former colleagues.
[Don’t know, My Say. Perhaps you get better samples for Labor if you poll on weekends (Morgan face-to-face is Saturday/Sunday, Newspoll is Friday-to-Sunday) rather than weekdays (Nielsen is Thursday-to-Saturday), because affluent people are more likely to go away for the weekend.]
Or simply the Coalition are just getting higher votes for each poll?
[There’s a long way to go until the 2013 election, as Julia and her troops would well know. This new poll should be sobering for the ALP and Poll Bludger Laborites – you won’t tear down Abbott in a couple of weeks, it’ll take all of next year to undermine his case for an election victory.]
Tell us something we don’t already know.
Also who wants Abbott gone by the next election? I don’t.
Notice the trend evan, that’s the main thing here.
Morgan has tended to favor Labor and Nielsen has tended to favor the Coalition so I guess we are in the 54/53 to 47/46 area a substantial improvement from where Labor were two months ago. I believe we have reached a crossroad where the outrage over the carbon tax has reduced to a simmer of discontent and Abbott needs to move from opposing everything to announcing some policies of substance. How he handles the transformation will be important in the lead-up to the next election. IR will become increasingly important in my opinion and both majors are vulnerable to IR. Interesting times ahead.
And I still think it’s remote that there will be a leadership change for either of the major parties.
gary
the ppm has firmed too
Gary: absolutely, and you can argue too that Neilsen overstates the Coalition vote by 1-2%.
Julia looks to me more confident, and Prime Ministerial, and the next week of Obama’s visit should be further helpful to her.
[Thanks William, mm have to think about that,
I think people are tired Thursday to sat, say the first thing that comes in to ones head, I actually hate
Phone calls on a friday night,]
I’m tired pretty much everyday, I doubt being “tired” is going to significiately influenced the polls. Even if it did in the slightest, there would be a pretty even distribution of “tired” Liberal and Labor supporters anyway.
[And I still think it’s remote that there will be a leadership change for either of the major parties.]
Yes, I think it’s more likely that it’ll be Gillard vs Abbott at the next election – Abbott ain’t going to get knifed when the Coalition are supposedly still 10 points ahead.