Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the lead up to the 2007 election it was NIELSEN that was kinder to labor than Newspoll. Have they changed their methodology?

  5. [Andrew
    Posted Sunday, November 13, 2011 at 11:57 pm | Permalink
    Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the lead up to the 2007 election it was NIELSEN that was kinder to labor than Newspoll. Have they changed their methodology?]

    I may be wrong but I have a recollection Nielsen was the worst over the last couple of weeks before polling day. Hope someone can recall. It’s got me curious now.

  11. Oh dear.

    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/roebuck-plunges-to-death-from-hotel-window-after-police-questioning-20111113-1ndvq.html

    [PETER ROEBUCK, regarded by many as the finest cricket writer of his generation, fell to his death from a hotel window in Cape Town on Saturday night after being questioned by police about an alleged sexual assault.

    Roebuck, who had written on cricket for the Herald since 1984, had been covering the Australian tour of South Africa for the paper. He was also commentating on the tour for ABC radio.

    A Cape Town detective and a uniformed police officer from the sexual crimes unit began speaking with Roebuck, 55, in his room at the Southern Sun Hotel, Newlands, about 9pm.

    Roebuck, who was agitated, asked a fellow cricket journalist for help. ”Can you come down to my room quickly? I’ve got a problem,” he said. He asked for help to find a lawyer and for contact to be made with the students he helped to house in Pietermaritzburg, near Durban.

    Minutes later Roebuck fell to his death from a window. It is believed only the uniformed officer was in the room. Paramedics rushed to the hotel but Roebuck was pronounced dead. Police established a crime scene and took personal items from the room, including a laptop.]

  19. Long way to go yet to 2013, but this lift in the polls is coming at an opportune time.

    In a sense even though they are still, unarguably a ways behind in the polls, the advantage lies with the ALP.

    They are starting to really get the hang of incumbency, and have delivered on some big issues. Having delivered, its going to be MUCH harder for the Opposition to sustain the meme of a disorganized and dysfunctional Govt that they have spent so much time promoting. They still have Pokies and MRRT to go which i’m optimistic about, and seem to be quietly making progress on the Murray Darling Water issue.

    There is an economic crapstorm on the horizon, but that may actually play to the ALP strength since the Libs have been all over the shop on the Economy, and when push comes to shove the ALP can argue that everything they have done since mid 2008 has been to support employment, and point to our unemployment rate as proof.

    There is room for the ALP to fail economically in 2012, but also room for them to, relatively shine, and i think that scares the Lib / Nats.

    If they fail to deliver a surplus 2012/13 that will hurt, but if by then people may be viewing the local Economy in a very different context (if Europe goes seriously pear shaped), so it may not hurt as much as the Opposition would like to think.

    Seems to me that the ALP are heads down, bum up, following the strategic plan laid out in Dec 2010 / Jan 2011. The current slow lift in the polls should solidify the ALP caucus behind that plan, IF there were ever any of them seriously questioning that they had any choice anyway.

    Hey, so polls this far out from an election may be good for something after all??

    I liked George Megalogenis’ comment on Insiders today about bringing on the NDIS. If the ALP can show that they are making substantial progress on that during 2012, even if the Economy is looking rocky, they will show that they can really walk and talk at the same time.

    I think it also may create an ongoing contrast with the Opposition as if the Economy is looking rocky, they are likely to concentrate so fixedly on that (and boats of course) that people will come away with the impression that they aren’t even capable of conceiving that good policy is possible to do unless they have a boom time economy and control of both Houses to play with.

  21. !!6…F Calebreze
    ____________
    You’ve got something very wrong in your quote

    There was NO federal election in 1945…Curtin died in mid-year 1945 anyway!!

    You must have confused the year…Perhaps 1943…the only election Curtin won

  22. [121

    deblonay

    Posted Monday, November 14, 2011 at 2:57 am | Permalink

    !!6…F Calebreze
    ____________
    You’ve got something very wrong in your quote

    There was NO federal election in 1945…Curtin died in mid-year 1945 anyway!!

    You must have confused the year…Perhaps 1943…the only election Curtin won
    ]
    you’re right it was 43.

  24. Good morning, Bludgers. Good morning, Dawn Patrollers.

    Good news on the OpPoll front’s trend line. Bad news for nutter truckers, oppo members and journos pushing the ‘everyone hates Gillard’ meme.

    Enjoyed Bill Shorten’s follow-up to Swannie’s wtte the Prime Minister’s ‘as tough as nails’

    [Introducing the Prime Minister in front of more than 10 ministerial colleagues, the Assistant Treasurer told a private ”progressive business” fund-raiser at Albert Park last week that neither he nor his colleagues would let Gillard down. Shorten sings her praises as PM’s fortunes brighten

    [Likening her challenge to ”a tight-wire walk in high winds over Niagara”, he said: ”The lady’s not for daunting, not this one, however daunting her task appears.”

    The lyrical speech was delivered almost as a ballad, with Shorten praising his leader for being steadfast despite the barking by some in the media ”as the ugly aggressive wharf-side canines of Peter Reith”.]

    As the 70th Anniversaries of the Pacific War tick around, thanks, Frank for

    btw, at approx 9.30 pm WST Steve Gordon will be interviewing Prof David Black about the 70th Anniversary of John Curtin becoming PM on 6PR Perth – you can listen live here:

    http://www.6pr.com.au/displayPopUpPlayerAction.action?url=http://streaming.mytalk.com.au/6pr

    One measure of Curtin is Menzies’ refusal, when approached by dissident Labor Menzies re rolling Curtin (a move which, if successful, would see Menzies become PM on the 2PP vote), on the grounds that he was the best man to lead Australia through the war: from the best of Australia’s Liberal/ Conservative PMs, no mean praise. Though Menzies mentions it in passing in his memoir, only recently, esp during research for the ABC programme on John Curtin, has the wartime closeness between the two been revealed.

  26. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Preferred PM: Gillard 45 (+1) Abbott 45 (-3) – Abbott is on a free fall Vs his own Party #LibSpill is only a matter of time #auspol
    now

  27. Frank, deblonay and others interested in Oz government during & after WWII, I’ve always regarded Paul Hasluck’s (1951)The Government and the People 1939–1941/ 42-45 in the Australia War Memorial series (olive green dust cover) comprehensive, superbly researched and very well-written (includes involvement in the UN’s foundation, and the politics of the elections and referenda), as the Core Text.

    Indeed, after c60 years, that whole AWM series on WW II is a superb reference (and among the few books that I didn’t let go into storage). I think it’s still available new (& should be more cheaply on ebay). One of the first things OH and I each learnt the other shared were volumes in that set; together (reflecting our different interests in WW II) we had an almost complete set – though we each had the one on the early Western Desert campaigns.

    In a naval one (royal blue, 2 vols) we found a footnote on the legendary ‘run’ through Indonesia & Torres Strait of the refugee-laden Ban Hong Leong, on which 2yo OH & his Mum were evacuated from Far NQ to Bris just before Battle of the Coral Sea (my elder sisters, in a Far NQ boarding school, were flown out to Bris schools).

  28. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Polls on the first 12 months of any Govt are meaningless. Bcs Govt doing things. For Elect03, polls from now on that will be pointer #auspol
    4 seconds ago

  29. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    More nightmares for Abbott. Mining Tax is popular, Obi is coming & EAS in Indonesia to follow. Gillard’ll strut while Abbott sulks #auspol
    23 seconds ago

  33. Pleased to see that Nielsen is moving the right way and especially peased JG has drawn level with TA and this is before the APEC announcements, Pr Obama’s visit and more importantly the CSIRO and Choice assessments of the Carbon Pricing no where near as bad as “the scaremongers” had predicted. Even better this was given wide coverage on the various media outlets,
    I see the DT is up to its favourite tricks again, ie people having to cut back on food. Also see Sophie M had popped up in the Oz on anti dumping, sorry can’t be bother googling it , too early to “stomach”

  35. A wonderful morning here , after the storm last night all is clean and fresh. Supposed to be about 30c so hopefully get down to the beach. The weather has come back to the “lightside” after the”darkside” last night, just like it appears to be slowly happening in Federal Politics

  37. Lyne Lady
    Good morning to you.
    The OO “beat the paywall trick” is to copy the story’s URL and paste it into the Google search window. It will show the links after the search. Click on it and voila!!

  38. Lyne Lady you are up bright and early did you get the storm last night too?
    To get behind the paywall of Oz you click on the article then copy in the address line then go to google and paste in there click on it and the article will appear click on it and the whole article appears, ie google trick. Hope I have explained that correctly.

  39. My Say, don’t be nervous keep telling yourself that the media”has finally woken up to themselves” but still think it is strange, they are like leemings though and follow leaders, ie Laurie O and Laura T, just to hope Laurie keeps on the straight and narrow, have faith Laura will

  40. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @MikeKellyMP Mike, the Govt is on a winner on the MRRT. Sell it properly, dont stuff it up. #auspol
    1 minute ago

  41. Peter Hartcher is Julia Gillard’s bitch.

    [JULIA GILLARD has led her government into a more comfortable political dwelling place, but it still lives on the political equivalent of death row.

    Today’s Herald-Nielsen poll shows a sustained improvement in the Prime Minister’s polling numbers. But it is only a relief, not a reprieve.

    Gillard’s personal approval rating has improved undeniably; she is no longer second to Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister; and Labor’s share of the two-party vote has held up at a level slightly higher than the party’s all-time low. Why?

    First, she has looked prime ministerial. She hosted the Queen, won her carbon tax, referred the Qantas shutdown to an emergency hearing and decided to pay better wages to carers. Even where these actions were not popular, they were actions nonetheless.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a-relief-for-labor-but-any-comeback-is-distant-20111113-1ndtp.html#ixzz1dcFmRzuS

    I must be remembered that Hartcher has a book and a theory to flog, on leadership (or lack of it).

    It started out a couple of weeks ago when he cited the example of a high school speech-making contest where the kids (mostly) complained of a “lack of leadership” in Australian politics. From this cute anecdote he leveraged a Theory Of Everything. It’ll be his schtick for a few weeks yet, until the book hits the remainder bins (if it hasn’t already).

    According to the blurb of The Sweet Spot: How Australia Made Its Own Luck and Could Now Throw It All Away , it’s…

    [… a vastly entertaining and thought-provoking tour through Australian politics and history. He shows how a convict colony could have become a banana republic but didn’t, how Australia came through the global financial crisis – it wasn’t just the mining boom – and how we could now throw our success away if we don’t recognise our strengths and demand true leadership of our politicians.]

    I wonder whether Hartcher wrote that himself? The Denmore in the first sentence – “vastly” – indicates that he might have. I have visions of sitting down for a few hours, laughing, crying, shaking my head in appreciation, being “vastly entertained”, as I read Hartcher’s brilliant and incisive description of how Gillard has “failed” this and “bungled” that. Does it have pictures?

    Sadly there are no reviews I could find, only the blurb from various bookstore sites. Oh well, I guess Peter’s Theory Of Everything didn’t set the world on fire after all.

    Peter must have been chuffed when he saw that he was the only one who got it right: Gillard failed on Qantas. How do we know? Neilsen has only a 40% “she got it right” votes against a 46% “she failed” vote.

    Peter thought that a crisis in itself signals a failure of leadership. So, let’s have a Qantas crisis… Gillard fails. Simple really. What she was supposed to have done to solve a private industrial dispute, Peter doesn’t explain.

    Let’s go right out on a limb on this. I mean, maybe she could have convened an all-night, weekend sitting of the FWA over two full days, arguing that the lockout has morphed the strike into a national issue, finally, at 2am on the morning before the lockout, achieving a ruling that ended the dispute, with a quick resumption of services by the next day, less than 48 hours after the airline closed its doors… something really crazy like that… really what DOES Peter expect her to have done?

    Oh, wait a minute….

    As we are all reminded, every year on Melbourne Cup Day, the horse that leads by 10 lengths with a mile to go usually comes last by the time it reaches finish post (if it reaches the finish post). The horse that holds steady through the first onslaught and is gaining on the leader at the same point in the race,the horse that is coming up on the rails stride by stride, is never described by race callers as being “still in a losing position” or “on a hiding to nothing”.

    Peter quotes John Stirton approvingly:

    [“We have to remind ourselves that, if an election were held now, Labor would lose, and lose in a landslide, with the lowest primary vote it’s had in probably 100 years,” the Herald’s pollster, Nielsen’s John Stirton, remarks.

    “It would take more than a year to hit 40, so that’s a worry for Labor,” Stirton says.]

    Does anyone see the flaw in thge logic there?

    In this two-horse race, the incumbent, with all the resources of government is gaining on the tiring leader, who streaked out from the barriers in a testosterone-charged bolt for the blue. At the rate the incumbent is gaining she’ll be level pegging in around another year.

    That’d be… {cough, cough}… a full year before the election is due, Messrs. Hartcher and Stirton… so why is that “a worry for Labor”?

    It’s often said that political commentators are just frustrated race callers, but they – or at least Hartcher does – lack the basic prerequisite of even an amateur barker from the Dunneedoo Picnic Carnival: the ability to tell who’s gaining and who’s tiring.

    According to political commentators, especially the bitchy ones like Hartcher, whoever’s behind in the race has no hope.

    If a real race caller described every horse who’s not the leader as “gone for all money” simply because they were behind the streaker at the front, put there by the trainer to give its owner a thrill and not much more, that race caller would be back collating the UK soccer scores at the subbies desk quicker than you can say “Gillard failed”.

    Hartcher describes the plain reality of the past month or so as…

    […the new orthodoxy among those in the front row of the political show that Labor is coming back.]

    “Those in the front row of politics” are presumably the other media, not the Grandmasters of politics – such as Peter Hartcher – who can see behind the raw figures (and have a book to flog).

    Peter is going to hang on to his pet theory that a kid’s debating competition is an allegory for the nation, that we have no leadership worth its salt, and that, improving or not, the horse that’s behind at any point in the race is sure to lose.

    Some race caller.

    God help him if Labor ever gets its nose in front.

    Peter’s head would explode, methinks.

  42. [Bh. I am suspicious, aliens came and took over all media, ?????]

    Or they were all on their several ways to Damascus when sudden lightning bolts struck and a deep heavenly voice thundered, “Why persecuteth thou Julia?”?

  45. BB My morning shot delivered as usual promptly and as incisively as ever. PH has been on this theme for a while now, wonder if he ever reads PB, it would be good for him to take a “reality”check. Books sales must be non existant?

  46. My Say if TA slips into the country quietly means he is finished. Have no idea where he is nor where John H is maybe they have stopped off together at some “retreat” on the way back to regroup?

  48. morning

    BB

    PH does not want to be wrong. He and Paul Kelly believed the minority govt would fall bafk in Feb and another election would have occurred with the coalition winning comfortably. He so desperately requires an election asap and for Labor to lose it handsomely. Only then will he find some comfort.

  50. Some nice footage on ABC24 of Julia and Tim and Michelle and Barrack looking entirely at ease together.
    Eat your heart out Tone – wherever you are.

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