Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. [Andrew Carr
    @AOCarr
    The criticism of a conscience vote on gay marriage rests on view that a majority of MP’s don’t support it. Why is this the PM’s fault?]

  2. Puff,

    I was just reading your post last night re the search for your doggies.Have you emailed lost dog posters to all the vets in your area and beyond? I am assuming your dogs have micro chips. Its a long shot, but they might be taken to a vet at some stage.

    You have probably already done this. It really is a horrible thing to have happened and I wish you all the best with your search.

  3. George I agree it is a very small step in a long process but would be much happier if all the participants were stepping out at the same time and we has some basic understanding of where we were heading.

  5. bemused re 3200 believe me this is one circumstance where I will be very happy to be wrong. Problem is I am not sure I will be around long enough to find out unless I make the ton.

  8. [George I agree it is a very small step in a long process but would be much happier if all the participants were stepping out at the same time and we has some basic understanding of where we were heading.]

    DavidWH, we DO have a very good understanding of where we are headed – the science is in, the experts agree, the steps necessary are obvious, it just requires the courage to get on with it.

    As for the same old argument of “wait until everyone is ready”, never gonna happen. The world is a complex place and requires leaders to show the rest where and how to move forward, otherwise nothing would progress beyond lighting fires with sticks and sleeping in caves.

  9. davidwh,

    Red Herrings and Strawmen! Is that all you’ve got?

    That report was actually quoted by the Government to demonstrate Australia wasn’t leading the pack on CC. This was just another of the dishonest claims made by the Libs and their shills.

    So, they have not met a target or goal that was never a part of their intention and this is seen as a bad thing. The CC legislation won’t stop the Middle east war either. Shame, Labor Shame!

    You are full of denial, visceral hatred and insignificance. You need to relax. Our future is assuered. The Countries in the very best of hands.

  10. [You are full of denial, visceral hatred and insignificance. You need to relax. Our future is assuered. The Countries in the very best of hands.]

    Well put GG

  11. Thanks for those wonderful insights GG. Now, lets see if yuo can explain how 2500 marines permanently stationed in darwin helps us (as opposed to the US).

    Cos if you or Gillard cant – the policy is a dog.

    David Here’s my assessment of the problems:

    a. It will create rather than resolve any tension with our neighbours
    b. It doesnt help the impression that we dont have an independent foreign policy (Keating would never have allowed this)
    c. Go to Darwin much? I do. It’ll turn into Okinawa. I predict major tensions.

  12. [david
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 3:09 pm | Permalink
    lefty whats your problem here with the Americans in Darwin? You are not happy but give no ‘good’ reason why? Lets be having you.]

    They talk funny?

    Seriously, though when my missus heard about the agreement she was unhappy too. “They’re war-mongers” she said.

    Given the track record of the Bushes, pere et fil, it’s rather difficult to argue with that, but I had a go anyway: “Obama’s not. He’s inherited two crappy wars from GW and is trying to shut them down.”

    “Sure” she says, “but what about the next guy? What happens when they elect another retard like Bush? And he starts another war?”

    As someone posted above, countries have no permanent friends, only permanent interests. The question for us is: Where do our permanent interests lie? In cosying-up to the US or in balancing our trade and security interests in good relationships with China, India and the US?

    This pick-a-side stuff doesn’t work too well. We tried hiding under Britain’s Far East blanket in 1941 and that didn’t work-out for us, now did it?

    I would like to see a far more independent foreign-policy with this country attempting to maintain a balanced security relationship with all three powers in our neck of the woods (China, India and the USA) rather than just with one.

    Think of it as a three-legged stool. Much more stable than a one-legged one.

    Maybe we should be asking them all to station a few troops or to come out for joint exercises in our northern training grounds. After all, the Prez did say he wanted to foster closer ties with the Chinese military as a confidence booster.

    Here’s our chance to grant his wish.

  15. [The gall/hypocrisy of the members of the oposition – the same bunch who booed the announcement of Obama’s visit were this morning falling over themselves to shake his hand.]

    I think you can rest assured that he has been directed to that footage already and knew who the Grade A hypocrites were when he was shaking hands with them.

  18. Here is one problem that the increased US presence in Darwin will cause, noise. Each year there is an exercise called Operation Pitch Black in Darwin with US,Singaporean, Australian and other air forces practising night bombing and other stuff. The airport used by the airforce is right in Darwin and the noise for the few days is considerable. See following link. It only happens for a couple of days a year and there is still a bit of grumbling. Greatly increasing very loud military aircraft flights will not please the locals.Mind you the sight of a B52 slowly climbing from the airport and lumbering south towards Humpty Doo looks pretty impressive.
    http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2008/06/23/4463_ntnews.html

  19. [ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-17/news-limited-boss-faces-media-inquiry/3677510
    Yeah. Sure!]

    Supreme Court Justice Stephen Kaye’s opinion in the Guthrie vs News Ltd case:

    [On Hartigan’s testimony, that was slammed in court by Guthrie’s counsel Norman O’Bryan SC, Kaye said that he “had reservations about a number of features” of his evidence.

    “In the course of cross-examination, it became apparent that Mr Hartigan attempted to give the impression of having a better memory of the events, about which he gave evidence, that was the fact.”

    Hartigan’s recollection of the negotiation of Guthrie’s contract, which the News chief had claimed were “long, protracted and hard-driven”, were dismissed.

    “In my view Hartigan was an unreliable witness in respect of the negotiations that proceeded the formation of the contract.”]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/05/14/guthrie-wins-out-in-unfair-dismissal-case-judge-slams-harto-blunden/

  21. It doesn’t seem like that much of an upgrade to me. US ships and planes could use our facilities if agreed previously, and the facilities in discussion remain Australian bases, not US with the sovereignty implied. Also, if US Marines are here, it does not make us more or less likely to join in any war the USA gets into. Western Europe had the lot in the cold war, but didn’t join in Vietnam, and many other countries are in the same position now, having forces but never involved in Iraq or Afghanistan.

    Of course we’ve jumped into most things, but I don’t think having or not having US forces stationed in our facilities would make any difference in that decision making.

  22. [ Cos if you or Gillard cant – the policy is a dog.

    If you don’t like Labor policy, then don’t vote Labor.

    Simple.]

    I know. Thats why I vote Green.

    But I pref ALP, and prefer they didnt adopt dog policies.

  24. I’ve been looking for more detail about the American presence in NT
    This is from the Oz:
    [An initial force of 250 Pacific-based Marines will deploy in the Northern Territory next year, growing to 2500 within six years.
    They will conduct exercises during the dry season of every year at the NT’s Mr Bundy, Bradshaw and Delamere training areas.

    The expanded US air presence in Australia will see B52s, FA18s, C17 transport aircraft and air-to-air tankers operating from RAAF Tindal, near Katherine.

    More US ships will also move through Western Australia’s HMAS Sterling naval base, south of Perth, but the extent of the arrangement is yet to be finalised.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/obama-in-australia/us-president-touches-down-at-fairbairn-airforce-base/story-fnb0o39u-1226197111255

  25. [They will conduct exercises during the dry season of every year at the NT’s Mr Bundy, Bradshaw and Delamere training areas.]

    What happens if war breaks out in the monsoon season?

  26. [But I pref ALP, and prefer they didnt adopt dog policies.]

    Then don’t preference the ALP either. You should structure your ballot according to the parties/candidates who advocate policies you support.

    I see no sense getting het up about something like this when a) you (and only you) are responsible for how you vote, and b) there are far more important issues to become worked up over.

  27. [For masochists only (you sadist Frank).]

    Prettymuch. And listening to it (I must be one of said masochists :p ), there’s no comparison between Abbott and Gillard as far as sycophancy goes. Yet another reason the ‘they’re TEH SAME!’ argument is BS.

  28. Leroy @ 3221,

    Spot on.

    All this is nothing new.

    USA forces in their 1000’s train in the NT on a regular basis and for extended periods.

    To me the announcement yesterday is nothing more than a “formalisation ” of what already goes on.

    With all due respect to the MSM and other commentators it continues to surprise me how little so many know about what is actually happening in this country and then when it is bought to their attention how they react.

    Just because the MSM has become aware of it does not make it new.

  32. [Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Tonight’s 7.30 Program – Leigh Sayles interviewing Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.
    ]

    And all your dreams have come true….

  34. Goo’deye everyone (to quote a well-known American).

    Proud I am of our PM.

    Disappointed but not surprised by our LOTO

    Extremely glad that we have some discerning Indies (cause if the rabbit’s rabble had had control we would really look bad in the world’s eyes right now!)

  37. Hartigan denies News Ltd is running a campaign of bias against the Federal Government all the whilst printing garbage headlines such as:

    [Audacity of grope: Power duo’s special friendship]

    [TODAY Julia’s “football captain” held sway in Parliament. What he said didn’t matter; that she had invited him did.]

    It’s such a shame the media in Australia is such an embarrassment.

  39. Apologies if others have already commented on this, but I found it hard not to laugh at the statement by News Ltd boss John Hartigan to the media inquiry:
    [Mr Hartigan conceded that the media industry needed stronger independent self-regulation, and that the Australian Press Council should be improved.

    But he said it would be inappropriate for the council to receive government funding.

    News Limited executive Campbell Reid rejected suggestions that the self-regulated press council lacks independence, even though the company is a paying member of the council.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-17/news-limited-boss-faces-media-inquiry/3677510

    Perhaps I worry too much about grammar, meaning and logical truth but, how can self-regulation be independent of what is being regulated? George Orwell would be proud. It isn’t independent. Wouldn’t it be better to call it internal regulation? Oops, that might expose that there isn’t actually any independent regulation of the media.

  40. Meanwhile in the New Zealand election, there is another case of an ‘accidental’ recording of a private conversation haunting a standing leader (NZ PM John Key).

    I can’t help but think that if this happened in Australia the papers wouldn’t bother requesting permission from Ms Gillard to disclose the contents of the tape. Maybe I’m just cynical.

  41. Two articles in the French newspaper Le Monde re Obama’s visit to Australia (can use Google Translate for (a rough) translation if interested):

    To Counter China, the United States is Reinforcing its Presence in Australia:

    http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2011/11/16/pour-contrer-la-chine-l-armee-americaine-renforce-sa-presence-en-australie_1604429_3216.html#ens_id=1604685

    The Chinese Dilemma for Australia:

    http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2011/11/16/le-dilemme-chinois-de-l-australie_1602591_3232.html

  42. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Pres.Obama said China should uphold International Law. Someone tell me please, which Int Law was upheld by USA when it invaded Iraq?
    1 minute ago

  43. [Pres.Obama said China should uphold International Law. Someone tell me please, which Int Law was upheld by USA when it invaded Iraq?]

    The law of the gun.

  44. [lefty e
    Posted Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Cos if you or Gillard cant – the policy is a dog.

    If you don’t like Labor policy, then don’t vote Labor.

    Simple.

    I know. Thats why I vote Green. ]

    Thanks lefty, I suspected that was the reasoning behind your thinking, greens…took a while but thanks for the confirmation.

    Thanks Smithe, read with interest.

    TLM..you are the first blog stalker I have come across

  45. [It was a dreadful speech from Abbott.]
    The best proof of that was, even among the media that normally fawn over Abbott, it has sunk without trace.

    I should add that my earlier comments were not intended as a criticism of Gillard’s speech, or Obama’s either. Both spoke well. It is just that the reality of US politics at present is such that they have too many problems to fix to be likely to do anything that helps us (or any other ally that isn’t in hock to them for a few hundred billion).

  46. Soc, this one for you:

    [Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Money will always talk, especially in Asia. China is the biggest trading partner to Japan, South Korea and ASEAN. (as well as Aust)
    13 seconds ago ]

  47. Chinese NewsAnchor from CCTV being interviewed on Sky Agenda doing a very very very poor job for China.

    He came over as a total buffoon, Yes worse even that the Abominal No Man.

    Sounds as if he was trained by the Soviets.

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