GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.
Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).
The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.
In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:
• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.
• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.
• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.
• Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.
Sorry about the fecks and ferrets. Abbott infuriates me!
Puff
You are not alone.
Tony Abbott’s continued ability to say the inappropriate must surely make him a candidate for the post of Cultural Attache once Sir Les Patterson retires.
latikambourke Latika Bourke
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott goes political – saying the transition from Howard to Labor Govt has been less ‘seamless.’
54 seconds ago
Puff:
Totally understand where you are coming from!
[Truly bizarre for Abbott to quote Greene’s Quiet American at Obama. Doesn’t he get the nuance of that book? Does not reflect well on US]
Tont don’t do nuance.
[Sorry about the fecks and ferrets. Abbott infuriates me!]
No need to apologise, Puffy
has abbott ever not used a special occasion to pan the govt, what a sad joke he is.
I hope Abbott gets the ambassadorship to Naura, get the embarrassment out of sigh!
Obama talks about “the spirit of progress”. That will hurt Abbott, the anti-progressive.
Ob praising the apology … I hope Howard cringed
[latikambourke Latika Bourke
Greens Senators show no signs of interrupting President Obama’s speech to Australia’s Parliament.]
I thought Brown issued a statement saying they wouldn’t be interjecting.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[Sorry about the fecks and ferrets. Abbott infuriates me!]
Considering the subject I thought you showed admirable restraint.
Obi: “delivering justice to OBL”
Hope Howard winced at that.
“science and research”… Abbott: “nooooooooeeeeessss!!!!”
[Let me know when its. Over
Shudders]
To took only few sentences and two deliberate misquotations for me to decide to hang out the washing, even if I missed the beginning of Obama’s address. Finished, but Abbott is still going. Wangker doesn’t come with lightyears of his cringeworthy performances.
[Considering the subject I thought you showed admirable restraint.]
Hear Hear. Abbott is a high order embarrassment.
Adam Bandt got the first handshake followed by Tony Windsor as President Obama came in. Being a cross-bencher has its advantages in a hung parliament.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Pres. Obama’s half sister is Indonesian and she married an Indonesian Chinese
5 seconds ago
poroti,at least sir les is someone who can make you smile, no such luck with abbott.
Hope you are all tweeting. Abbotts gaffs
[To took only few sentences and two deliberate misquotations for me to decide to hang out the washing]
Fawning sycophancy from the very start.
Embarrassing.
poroti
Here is from where Abbott got his inspiration.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_RkB5KhCGrU
Send. Conroy. Got the last hand shake, before the speach,
Was pleased it was not one of them
Obama seems to be using this speech to make some substantive policy statements?
Today’s Liberals don’t believe in free markets anymore.
My say, for you
[Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Tony Abbott’s speech makes Sir Les Peterson looks articulate #auspol
1 minute ago ]
Immacca,
This speech will be dissected word for word in this region, there is some important policy statements in there.
For a while I was hearing a faint flavour of aggression “we’re here to help you whether you want us or not” which might make some Asian nations nervous.
I wish our flag could be draped so u can see the southern cross
Now we are onto trade.
Will Barnaby interject at Obama’s statement that climate change is real?
[This speech will be dissected word for word in this region, there is some important policy statements in there.]
Dissected, and the separate words and phrases matched with lip position and eyebrow lift at the time, cross referenced for pauses, intonation, and head angle.
Erica Betz looks positively angry.
Perhaps it’s the way he relaxes.
Obi, “climate change, that cannot be denied”; that’s a size ten to the arske of the rAbbott!
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
The trouble with Obama has always been: Action is louder than words. Remember Guantanamo Bay #aubama
8 seconds ago
I think k the over 55 that apparently we have to win over. Will be pleased with the presedents
Speach
Finny,
Gitmo makes it very hard for usa to take the high ground on rights.
BK
[Perhaps it’s the way he relaxes.]
LOL
george
Erica is a very interesting study.
I thoughtb that NZ gave women the vote first.
Abbott’s speech doesn’t seem to be causing any controversy anywhere but on PB. I think on this occasion you are all being just a little precious.
Obi mentions sexual slavery, that is very helpful for those campaigning to stop it.
[“we’re here to help you whether you want us or not”]
I think some of it could nave been heard that way. But, the impression i’m getting is that he actually wants to make definitive statements that are difficult to misinterpret. Maybe he is daring people, particularly China, to take him at face value??
Interestingly for me i don’t have a big problem with the increased US mil presence. Their main use in this region of late has been for disaster relief, and the Marines and their equipment for getting stuff into challenging places is remarkably useful in that context.
DavidWH,
Maybe we are just a little more discerning!
On sbs they have only showed. The president
And the pms well we have adobted the stand and clap
[Abbott’s speech doesn’t seem to be causing any controversy anywhere but on PB. I think on this occasion you are all being just a little precious.]
DavidWH, has predictable of you. His speech was shithouse mate, not controversial
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Being jilted. Europe is demanding a divorce from USA and asked for half of USA’s assets #aubama
12 seconds ago
Thank goodness they applauded. Wasn’t some previous president left in dead silence for reasons of “protocol”?
has=how