Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest monthly Nielsen result has the Coalition lead at 55-45 – an improvement for the government on 57-43 a month ago and their best Nielsen result since March, but shy of their form in other recent polling. This sits nicely with Possum’s recent finding that Nielsen has had a 0.9 per cent “lean” to the Coalition relative to Newspoll, Essential and Morgan phone polls since the 2010 election. The primary votes tell a familiar story in having Labor steady on 30 per cent but the Coalition down three to 45 per cent, with the Greens up two to 14 per cent. This chimes quite well with Newspoll’s respective findings of 32 per cent, 44 per cent and 12 per cent.

Where Nielsen differs is in showing a strong recovery in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings: up six points on approval to an almost respectable 39 per cent, and down five points on disapproval to a still fairly bad 57 per cent. She has also tied on preferred prime minister for the first time in a while, gaining a point to 45 per cent with Tony Abbott down three. Abbott’s ratings are exactly unchanged at 41 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. As always, the poll was conducted by phone from Thursday to Saturday from a large sample of 1400, producing a margin of error of 2.6 per cent (assuming a random sample).

The poll also found support for a mining tax at 53 per cent with 38 per cent opposed, and that Gillard’s handling of the Qantas dispute had 40 per cent approval and 46 per cent disapproval. Michelle Grattan in the Age rates this “surprising”, but it in fact compares favourably for her with Morgan and Essential’s figures. Qantas’s actions had 36 per cent approval and 60 per cent disapproval, very much in line with Morgan and Essential, while the unions fared rather better on 41 per cent and 49 per cent. Grattan reveals the Victorian component of the result had the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 against 54-46 last time. I should have full tables available tomorrow. UPDATE: Here they are.

In other news, closure of Liberal preselection nominations for seats held by the party in NSW on November 4 brought forth a number of challenges to sitting members:

• The Goulburn Post reports Angus Taylor, “45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete”, and Sydney restaurateur Peter Doyle are among a large field of entrants in Hume, where 72-year-old incumbent Alby Schultz’s future intentions remain unclear. The Post faults both Taylor and Doyle for being from Sydney (Doyle having been mentioned in the past in relation to Wentworth and Vaucluse) and notes the local credentials of three further candidates, “Mittagong accountant Rick Mandelson, Yass grazier Ed Storey and Yass-based IT executive and olive grower Ross Hampton”. The latter has also been a television reporter and has “an extensive CV as a political advisor and was press secretary to the former defence minister Peter Reith during the ‘children overboard’ days”.

• Bronwyn Bishop faces a challenge in Mackellar from Jim Longley, the state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1995. Imre Salusinszky in The Australian rates Longley “the most formidable candidate she has faced in a preselection challenge”, but nonetheless says Bishop is expected to win.

• Imre Salusinszky’s report further notes that Mitchell MP Alex Hawke faces three little-heralded predators from the David Clarke side of the Right sub-factional divide – Dermot O’Sullivan, Michael Magyar and Robert Picone – but is “expected to survive”.

Krystyna Pollard of the Blue Mountains Gazette reports Louise Markus faces a challenge in Macquarie from Charles Wurf, state chief executive of the Aged Care Association of Australia. This event has not otherwise excited much interest.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred still at 54-46, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor steadyon 35 per cent and the Greens up one to 10 per cent. Its monthly figures on personal ratings have Julia Gillard pulling ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, turning a 38-39 deficit into a 41-36 lead. Her approval rating is up three to 37 per cent and her disapproval down five to 54 per cent, while Abbott is down four to 36 per cent and up one to 52 per cent. The occasional question on best party to represent various interests has also been asked, and according to Bernard Keane of Crikey it finds Labor pulling ahead on “families with young children, students, pensioners, indigenous people, ethnic communities” after doing no better than the Coalition in these traditionally strong areas a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,332 comments on “Nielsen: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 61 of 67
1 60 61 62 67
  1. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Galleries and Parliament rise to applaud President Obama. Former Prime Minister John Howard not clapping at all.]

  2. And what’s this new buzz word precious

    Another silly new word,
    In a silly out of context way.

    My grandchildren are precious, my royal douton is precious to me a I don’t want it broken

    Fed up with silly new buzz words

  3. Abbott’s Graham Greene reference (to an American president?!) reflects upon his exceptionally narrow world view which, dare I say it, is just too Catholic: a life in St Ignatius Riverview, St Johns College, parliament…well Graham Greene is just a natural reference, good Catholic author

  4. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    Obama’s speech reminds us the world, & the basis of power we grew up with, is undergoing a paradigm shift. Alignment now with Asia’s rise.
    ]

  5. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Overheard, Obama to Joe Hockey: How many KFC have you had today Joe?” #aubama
    54 seconds ago

  6. Scarpat

    [I thoughtb that NZ gave women the vote first]
    NZ was the first nation. South Australia were the first to allow women to stand for parliament though.

  7. Abbott cannot help himself, can he?

    He lives, breathes and sweats his compulsion to do anything for the top job.

    Classic narcissist: his obsessions should be ours too.

    This includes POTUS, parliament, the Australian people and anyone who gives him the time of day.

    They do it to be polite. They don’t expect a rave like that back in return.

  8. my say

    This is what Wikipedia has to say about The Quiet American by Graham Greene:
    [The book was the initial reason for Graham Greene being under constant surveillance by US intelligence agencies from the 1950s until his death in 1991, according to documents obtained in 2002 by The Guardian newspaper under the US Freedom of Information Act…

    After its publication in the U.S. in 1956, the novel was widely condemned as anti-American. It was criticized by The New Yorker for portraying Americans as murderers, largely based on one scene in which a bomb explodes in a crowd of people. According to critic Philip Stratford, “American readers were incensed, perhaps not so much because of the biased portrait of obtuse and destructive American innocence and idealism in Alden Pyle, but because in this case it was drawn with such acid pleasure by a middle-class English snob like Thomas Fowler whom they were all too ready to identify with Greene himself”]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Quiet_American

  9. [Greg Jericho
    @GrogsGamut
    Abbott must have read a different version of The Quiet American to me. Not sure it’s a book I’d quote in praise of America’s foreign policy.]

  10. Great double page spread in the Herald Sun today including several pictures of JG and Obama together. Obviously a great rapport between them. Also a very good article and photo on the features page.

    I’ll be very surprised if there isn’t a bit of a kick in the Newspoll this weekend.

  11. Perhaps I misheard, but I thought Obama said thank you to the oppn leader, Peter Abbott (as in Peter Rabbit).
    Seriously. I’m sure he didn’t say Tony or Anthony.

  12. Wow, that Farnsworth article is lame even for him. The Obama criticism I think is valid (though I don’t think its all his fault), but then he can’t help but get into his usual petty obsessions when trying to discuss Gillard. Oh no, there’s no policy reasons for anything (he probably didn’t even bother reading the reasons for the India policy), she’s the new Thatcher, there’s no intellectual debate anymore, Gillard and Abbott are really the same and she had the nerve to praise America while giving an address in the US Congress, lord. And then the obligatory Kevin Rudd mention at the end to show what he’s really hankering for, a male in power again.

  13. carey moore @ 2853

    [Yes, we are currently the quarry of this deal but that’s where a responsible government uses the money from this to invest in their future and infrastructure so it can ascend in its status and function in the world, whereas an irresponsible government just gives the money away in tax cuts or benefits.]
    Caught up with that

    Very much agree with that – again to use the Norway example, using its temporary resource use of oil to build a permanent sovereign wealth fund (ie transferring asset from oil to SWF) results in a prosperous economy in which it has the strength to chart it own course – for example, to infuriate China with the Nobel Peace Prize

  14. George,
    2997
    You put it so much more eloquently than me. I wish Harry had red-carded Abbott as soon as he set foot in the chamber!

  15. Laocoon

    Greene is described as a salon communist – dont know what it means but interesting expression.

    Major stuff up to quote him IMHO. If PM had done it Bolt et al would be apoplectic

  16. I generally find Abbott an annoying pratt but just don’t see anything wrong with what he said at the end of that speech and I doubt Obama would have either. The way Gillard communicates grates with me as well. I don’t have a lot of faith in the communication skills of out current leaders. But then Rudd is a good communicator but he is a pratt as well.

  17. Last night I said people were overreaching criticising Abbott’s pre-dinner speech.

    Today’s was rude and diplomatically ignorant. Quite reprehensible behaviour from the Liberal Party topped off with John Howard’s extraordinarily poor behaviour in refusing to applaud.

    I confidently predict Abbott will get off scot free while the MSM comments on a couple of line stumbles by the PM.

  18. Finns
    Re the China People’s Daily report you quoted earlier (2780) …what is your assessment of that reaction: pro-forma to be expected or a 9.8 on the richter scale?

  19. my say

    [Tasmania. Was first re vote g we also had the first postage stamp]
    Them sneaky South Australians beat Tassie by 9 years for women’s suffrage.Rummaging around about voting rights I found this amazing situation in NZ. Maori men over 21 were given universal suffrage in 1867, European men did not get it until 12 years later in 1879.

  20. If Latike is right about Howard not clapping, what was he doing at the State Dinner and why was he there today? Rodent is as Rodent does.

  21. Gillard & Abbott speech summaries from The Age blog

    [10.40am: Mr Abbott can’t resist the opportunity for a couple of political pot shots. Given his Dr No reputation of late, maybe he should just look Mr Obama square in the eye and say “No, we can’t”.
    He signs off on an ominous note: “No leader on earth has heavier responsibilities. May god bless you.”
    10.35am: “Mr President, we welcome you as an ally, a partner and a friend.” With those words Ms Gillard signs off and Tony Abbott steps up to the plate. He kicks off by quoting General Motors and Alexis De Tocqueville. Random.
    10.30am: Julia Gillard welcomes Mr Obama and invokes his famous “Yes, we can” catchphrase. The president has ditched the red tie for the blue tie today, so it’s clearly down to business after yesterday’s flitting about hugging schoolkids and having dinner.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/live-barack-obamas-australia-visit-20111116-1ni9j.html

  22. Did I see Abbott trying to keep on talking to Prez Obama after Obi had turned away and moved on and then Abbott did the hand on the back thing in camera view?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 61 of 67
1 60 61 62 67