The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.
Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.
UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).
dovif
I have said it before and I will repeat. Abbott will not be PM
Gusface
[so what is california doing?]
He wouldn’t know or understand
[I suggest u refine your meme]
On autopilot, will only change when plane crashes
Dovif: A lot of the current Liberal poll lead is fairly soft, and it’s more a protest vote against the Carbon Tax & Julia Gillard than a 100% endorsement of Tony Abbott.
Windsor blasted the OO on Agenda this morning. He accused them of making things up and said wtte that they are a disgrace of a newspaper. I know Bob Brown can give it to them but this was fantastic. Fool Gilbert was taken aback.
[Dovif: A lot of the current Liberal poll lead is fairly soft, and it’s more a protest vote against the Carbon Tax & Julia Gillard than a 100% endorsement of Tony Abbott.]
Evan, at last some sense coming from that keyboard of yours.
Evan
Are you having us on? You now say the polls are soft for the Libs. What haopened to your catchcry of Labor is roooned!!!!
Gary
Yes it was an extraordinarily scathing attack on the OO and many of its inhabitants. Tony W didn’t hold back.
I can’t see the Liberals going back to Turnbull, they don’t like him much – unfortunately, well large parts of the party don’t at any rate
I must admit I underestimated Abbott at the last election, I thought he would say something stupid and get hammered – it didn’t happen. Can he go another 2 years without totally losing the plot though??? I can understand why plenty of Liberals would be nervous
Hopefully Newspoll publish the rest of their figures tonight and the move to Labor continues – Primary vote with a 3 in front will do for now – and Greens in the teens 🙂
Off to work, have a great day all
Gary@54
I am now going to take the time to see the replay on multiview!
womble
I am sure there are leadership tensions in the coalition. We will have to wait and see.
Anyhow, have a good day
Not that I’m arguing that Julia Gillard will definitely win the next election, BUT I doubt any Abbott win will be of the landslide proportions being predicted in the most recent polls.
The best 2PP vote the Coalition have scored in recent federal elections is 54%(William or anyone else can correct me on that one).
@dovif
So like Abbot you are saying business should vote against the best interest of maximising profit for the shareholder.
Like Abbott you are dismissing out of hand what is going to be the law of the land unless a repeal is made reality through elections.
Business does operate on reality. Not fantasy.
Reality is that a Coalition undoing Carbon Pricing policy is very unlikely.
Taking pensioners money out of their pocket.
Taking Tax Cuts back from small business.
Then going to an election saying that you will do that and expecting to win.
This along with the nationals losing votes to the Greens over Coal Seam Gas.
An issue the Nationals are on the wrong side of. They are even to the right of Alan Jones on that.
Tony Abbotts wrecking strategy is starting to be held up to scrutiny and real questions asked by the media. Yes even Limited News ones.
Victoria(51) I agree with what you say about Abbott, even died in the wool Lib supporters I know have worries about him
Morning all – Bk & Gary, I started the day off well with Tony W and that broadside at the OO. I was spellbound and I think Keiran Gilbert was as well because he didn’t interrupt. Whenever Labor utters a few words against the OO or the Oppn they get short shrift from Gilbert but TW’s outburst was ridicule and it worked.
[Gary@54
I am now going to take the time to see the replay on multiview!]
Well worth it Vic.
That bloody Troy Bramston (or whatever his name is), I saw him on Australian Agenda yesterday and said to my friend this bloke has changed his tune, he must be working for the OO. Sure enough. I found out today, he is now being paid by the OO.
These poll results are good for Labor, as there’s little chance of either W or O withdrawing their support.
Yesterday’s INSIDERS was pretty anti-Abbott.
So the Others in Lyne jumped from 0.7% at the last election to 14%.
In New England they’ve jumped from 1.2% to 13%.
I think that’s interesting …
TLM@61
Said the same thing about the NSW election , which then went against trend and delivered the massive victory the polls predicted.
I think (unfortuneately) the newspoll figures are correct but not to say the PM can’t recover somewhat …to what extent is the question we are all asking.
[Not that I’m arguing that Julia Gillard will definitely win the next election, BUT I doubt any Abbott win will be of the landslide proportions being predicted in the most recent polls.]
Exactly what I’ve been saying all along while you have been writing them off completely after each poor opinion poll. Welcome to the land of commonsense evan.
spur212 – I wonder who ‘others’ will end up being, another independant (perhaps focussed on CSG), or maybe even someone like Katters Australian Party?
Gary
I noticed that too. In the past Bramston defended Labor to the hilt. He is now a mouthpiece for the Oz, and has a book to sell! How unsurprisement
Spring has sprung…
The birds are singing.
Flowers are in bloom.
Busy bees madly pollinate.
Lawns once again need mowing every two weeks.
Sadly, Phil Coorey, out for a walk in the sunshine, stubs his toe on a rock:
[With the Coalition the favourite to win the next election, and demanding almost every day now that an election be called, it is only natural there be an increased focus on its policies and promises. And there are problems.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-buys-some-time-with-a-roundtheworld-ticket-20111023-1meaz.html#ixzz1be5ZYJYi
“… it is only natural there be an increased focus on its policies and promises. And there are problems.”
He says it as if it only just occurred to him.
Coorey to Self: “Hey, wait a minute, mate. Could it be? No, surely not! Hold on! Does the Coalition have any policies that make sense?”
Really desiring to write about “The Politics” – who’s up who, where did that leak come from, will Smith challenge, how warm was The Kiss, any “senior Labor figures” phone today? – Coorey, for a moment, considers that if an election was to be held today the Coalition might have “problems”.
Like: the Boat Phone won’t work. There’s could be mass resignations if the Carbon Tax rollback is ordered. Billions could be lost by businesses if CT permits are withdrawn. Direct Action is a crock. There haven’t been many preselections. The Coalition are proposing to spend money that isn’t there. Stuff like that.
To Coorey, the ultimate sanction for Abbott if he broke all these promises, or was forced to, is that breaking them “could make his time in office short-lived.”
That’s it.
Nothing about what might happen to the country, or how our solid economic progress might be curtailed. The only consequence Coorey is prepared to entertain at the moment is that Abbott might get the boot for doing exactly what he’s accusing Gillard of doing now.
What fun.
spur212
Interesting indeed.
BB
Pathetic isnt it!
guytaur@62
Yes agree with you re business attitude.
Also what happens to the polluting businesses that miss out on TA direct funding and therefore have to operate against a govt. funded business renewing their infrastructure (and competitiveness) at taxpayer expense…..
arunta
If Labor changed leaders now, we could expect support to stay low as happened in NSW. That is the key imo
Seriously stupid when Gilbert interview Troy Bramston this morning on an article he’s written (OO, of course) about Karl Bitar’s opinion on Labor’s woes. Apparently Bitar thinks that Labor pollies forget the electorate after winning the seat and start to look for a way to get ahead instead. Karl Bitar, for cripes sake!!
Bramston then ran through Labor’s flipflops and how woeful the Govt. is, especially on AS policy. We need reminding that Bramston was on Kev’s staff during that chaotic period when rushing from one issue to the next was the order of the day to keep the MSM entertained.
Limited News love paying ex Labor pollies or officials to rat on the Labor Party. Troy is doing just that for the almighty dollar.
victoria@77
Could be the case , as much as I like KK I thought Nathan Rees was making headway but not enough to materially change things.
The other factor in NSW was the ongoing problems with ministers resigning and no real agenda.
Labor and the PM have a good policy platform and are delivering so things not exactly the same.
vic – Bramston has changed his tune but only since the talk of Kev coming back has hit the headlines. Perhaps he’s the conduit for the OO in getting information from Labor. He mentioned today that Labor pollies have told him they’ve lost 5-10% because of the AS issues and it has come from both the left and right of the Party.
In spite of the polls at present there is a canyon separating the NSW Labor situation to federal Labor’s situation.
Anyone got a link to Windsor’s spray of The Australian?
[He mentioned today that Labor pollies have told him they’ve lost 5-10% because of the AS issues and it has come from both the left and right of the Party.]
I’d like them to show us the evidence for thinking that.
arumta@76
Yes even Nikki Savva on Insiders could not defend that one.
Burgey – if you don’t have access to Foxtel or Austar you could try skynews.com.au but I’m not sure that the video clips are there.
[Gary
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 9:09 am | Permalink
Windsor blasted the OO on Agenda this morning. He accused them of making things up and said wtte that they are a disgrace of a newspaper. I know Bob Brown can give it to them but this was fantastic. Fool Gilbert was taken aback.]
Is there any way we can get to see that interview? It sounds like a must watch for all PBs.
The ABC in particular but all media needs to start questioning these polls.
Not to dismiss and discredit.
To hold them up to scrutiny. We do not get the questioning needed on these things.
The Poll Bludger has published sample sizes and I am sure would give more detail if available even if it is links to a website of the poll containing that data. Not seen others doing this to the same degree.
Why not? It is not just because most do not understand statistics or care.
There have been numerous mentions of an agenda being run using polls to set up the narrative for that agenda. Why are journalists not therefore being more questioning about these polls?
How are they used to fit the narrative? Why should the community take them on face value. How can a headline be used to distort a view about a result that even in the same article is different?
Does the ABC or other media organisation have an equivalent to the CNN poll of polls?
Lets stop News Limited setting the agenda by actually changing the narrative.
Make the poll that people quote different not the single lead of the Newspoll and 00 headline to set an agenda.
Much much better William… useful and informative … not preoccupied with numbers but with meaning – and showing us how what is asked and of whom actually makes a difference.
I particularly liked Tony Windsor’s response to the poll this morning on Radio National … no panic, but still listening …. now there’s a politician. He would have made a great PM – not that our system would permit such flagrant wildcattery.
I’ll watch TW again and take it down in shorthand (comes in handy from time to time)
@BH 86 and Darn 87
If the ABC is doing their job ABC News 24 will show that if not on the 7:30 report.
They are supposed to cover important political news for those not able to get pay television or not willing to pay.
So for Lyne it’s Oakeshott 26 (-21), National 47 (+13), ALP 8 (-5), Greens 5 (+1), Others 14 (+13)
For New England it’s: Windsor 33 (-29), National 41 (+16), ALP 9 (+1), Greens 4 (0), Others 13 (+12)
If I were to make a superficial conclusion, I’d say Windsor’s new found popularity has lead to a bigger swing against him … I’d also say that the swing to the others suggests that the Nationals brand isn’t as popular in these electorates as they’d like to think. Whether they come back to Windsor and Oakeshott, who knows.
I’d say the longer the government lasts, the more likely they can win back support in their electorates. The other thing to consider is had they supported the Coalition, they would have probably lost their point of difference with the Nationals leading to a similar result (although the Coalition would argue that they wouldn’t have campaigned in their seats).
Either way I doubt we’ll see Windsor and Oakeshott switching sides based on an opinion poll. Given the fact that these two don’t have party machines by them and the Coalition have declared war on them in their electorates, I think they’re holding up pretty well.
Good morning, Bludgers.
[Mr Fraser said he believed the party formed by Member for Kennedy Bob Katter could take as many as 10 seats in the next state election, scheduled for March.
But he said the seats most at risk were in Liberal National Party (LNP) territory]
1. So Fraser gives public voice to LNP fears – though (note) he confines predictions to the North and omits seats in the Surat Basin, Western- & Darling- Downs, where the anti CGS & “Quarantine Prime Ag Land” “Save the BAB” lobbying (with Green backing) is most vociferous.
Not that the LNP is silent about fears, not in an area where Tmba North is a Labor island in an LNP ocean, and Katter’s threat starts on the City’s outskirts: all of them.
In addition, scuttlebutt says LNP doesn’t expect agreed support from Katter, even (should it be commissioned to govern) on supply and confidence. In the event Labor doesn’t win majority government (it has 2 long-term Indies on side, so has an 8 seat buffer going into an election and whatever KAP offers) and doesn’t get a supply/ confidence guarantee from KAP, the best LNP now expects is that Labor resigns and LNP governs by bill-by-bill negotiation; a highly unstable Q LNP government going into the 2012 federal election.
Labor moved to quarantine Prime Ag Land in 2010 (6 months before the LNP stopped openly supporting the CSG mining side) has since extended it – and Wild River Legislation over the Lake Eyre Basin & some Gulf rivers has stopped proposed mining in the LEB’s prime grazing land; so a Katter-Green alliance has more chance getting Bligh to expand PAL quarantining than getting the Clive Palmer-financed LNP to do so (and more chance that Peter Garrett will rein in miners than whoever a possible Abbott government appoints as Minister).
Given federal Nats’ record of betraying their voters’ best interests during the Howard era, trusting them not to do so under a future Fed or state Liberal-led government is a widely-(and loudly-) discussed issue on the days the West comes to town to do business and shopping: fascinating developments, esp to any policy/ political analyst.
[A year to go in Australia’s UN bid
24 October 2011]
2. Which, of course, explains why anyone with any brains (or who’s followed the OO over the years) knows the Ruddstoration is a well beaten-up myth. According to Shanners, the UN’s always been Rudd’s dream. If Oz doesn’t get the seat, maybe the myth turns real; but that’s a whole year away.
Of course, if you’re Shanners, the OO & Abbott Groupies, you’ll write/ say whatever best suits your “fell purpose” at the time.
BTW, if today’s online Oz is indicative, we’re getting news but no opinionated views. How is that A Bad Thing? Or more a case of “we must do this to retain online readers & ad revenue they generate, in case we repeat The Times disaster”?
guytaur
news24 is not by subscription
By Windsor’s popularity, I mean the fact that he’s getting more mainstream media coverage than Oakeshott.
Good Morning, Bludgers!
I had a politics free weekend and have to admit it went a long way to restoring my sanity. I did manage, however to catch ghost’s numbers. Tell me those polls weren’t commissioned to create a talking point. The bottom line is Abbott can bleat for an election as long and loud as he likes. The indies are not going to dissolve their own power base to flip to Abbott.
The reason I had a politics free weekend was because I was engrossed in the Gold Coast 600 and the Malaysian GP. On the plus side my neighbour, James Courtney took his car from 23rd to 6th place in an amazing drive.
On the sad side, I watched Marco Simoncelli, lowside his bike and ride in front of Colin Edwards and Valentino Rossi, the impact of which dislodged his helmet, and resulted in his death.
A timely reminder that life is what happens while we are planning something else.
No one is surprised about these results. Oakeshott is too scared to walk the town anymore. You NEVER see him having coffee like you use to
mumbletwits Peter Brent
Me on today’s Windsor/Oakeshott Newspoll. The boys are chained to the good ship Labor.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/indies_fates_tied_to_governments/
Burgey – my hands are a lot slower than the old days but basically Gilbert said ‘there are suggestions in the OO that the pollingmight influence your decision if there was a change of leader in Labor.
[TW said “I have not spoken with the OL for 4-5 months. I don’t pay any attention to what they say. I have seen what they’ve said in the past, particularly in respect of my family and family members.
There are some good journalist there but some muckrakers in the back of the pile. They don’t need me. They just make it up anyway.
They can say what they like. I think they are a disgrace as a newspaper. They can say what they like and if people want to buy that rubbish, they can”]
He speaks pretty fast when an old duck is trying to get down every word.
Oz Pol Tragic @ 2106 (previous thread)
[O no it isn’t, Charlton. My vivid imagination’s interpretation of the murders, hand’s being chopped etc off haunted my nightmares for ages. In fact, we were taught “Batavia” wreck uncensored in primary school; were taught all the explorers’ trips uncensored, including Roper’s killing on the Leichhardt exploration (Gulf, NT), Kennedy’s on the Cape, and Frank Clune’s harrowing account (“Dig”) of the deaths of Gray, Burke Wills.]
Before posting, I attempted to research Stewart’s “Shipwreck” but couldn’t find anything about it other than it’s out of print.
I’m surprised that primary-school children were ‘taught “Batavia” wreck uncensored’ & the accounts of explorers who met grisly ends.
The Queensland curriculum in your day was vastly different to my memory of the New South Wales’ one, which, as I said previously, was pretty tame. For instance, the emphasis was on chronology – eg, list the name of governors from Phillip to Fitzroy – rather than on substance. In fact, I recall winning a pencil sharpener for getting the list right.