The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.
Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.
UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).
SK
I still feel sick about Marco Simoncelli. When I was young, I witnessed A fatal motorcycle accident and two, where they were seriously injured. It brought back these bad memories. Have been feeling sick since.
# 93 oh dear. That’s GAB not BAB
BH
I just listened to replay of the Windsor interview. You did a great job of transcribing!
[Is there any way we can get to see that interview? It sounds like a must watch for all PBs.]
Multiview on Foxtell probably has it if you’ve got Foxtell darn.
[Danny Lewis
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 8:05 am | Permalink
Good morning, fellow Bludgers!
The sun is up.
The birds are singing.
Labor is still in government.
Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.
Wayne Swan is the World’s Greatest Treasurer.
It is now well established that Andrew Bolt is a dickhead.
All is right with the world.]
And Manchester United hammered 6-1. What else can a Labor person ask for? 😀
BH
I have not watched Sky Agenda for ages, but the agenda was clear. Continue the Labor bashing and try ever so hard to show that the govt is unstable and ready to fall over any day now.
[Hopefully Newspoll publish the rest of their figures tonight and the move to Labor continues]
I’m hoping bad Indie figures are a good omen: “Give ’em the positive first to soften the negative’s blow”, rather than “Haven’t finished processing the main poll”.
victoria,
I spent much of my life involved in some form in motorsports, some of that time picking up injured motorcylists from racetracks. I have to say watching Marco lying prone on that track was the most chilling I have witnessed. I knew it was bad and felt sick to my stomach, knowing the news was not going to be good.
Good morning all.
ARe these the first Newspolls in W and O’s electorates since the election?
FWIW
http://www.vexnews.com/2011/02/trojan-horse-conflicted-lobbyistjournalistparty-member-and-government-job-reject-troy-bramston-betrays-labor-mates/
It was on SKY Agenda, Burgey — it is being cycled on multiview if you have SKY.
SK
My OH was watching the race in another room, as I was attending to some duties. He yelled out to me that the race had been called off due to serious injury. I instinctively knew at that moment, it was fatal. So sad.
To be honest, I can handle watching the Moto GP on Television, but would not cope being at a race. My anxiety of witnessing accidents, would come to the fore. Ever since i saw those accidents, whenever a motorcycle is near me, I cringe. I also had a friend who recently witnessed a fatal accident. It was so bad, that it took weeks for my friend to recover.
Windsor said he hadn’t spoken to Oz in 4 months and they didn’t need his input anyway because they just make it up anyway.
How to spot our psychopath pollies by how they speak.
[How to Spot Psychopaths: Speech Patterns Give Them Away
They also found more dysfluencies — the “uhs” and “ums” that interrupt speech — among psychopaths. Nearly universal in speech, dysfluencies indicate that the speaker needs some time to think about what they are saying.
With regard to psychopaths, “We think the ‘uhs’ and ‘ums’ are about putting the mask of sanity on,” Hancock told LiveScience.
Psychopaths appear to view the world and others instrumentally, as theirs for the taking, the team, which also included Stephen Porter from the University of British Columbia, wrote.
As they expected, the psychopaths’ language contained more words known as subordinating conjunctions. These words, including “because” and “so that,” are associated with cause-and-effect statements.]
http://www.livescience.com/16585-psychopaths-speech-language.html
Abbott is doing his normal bad govt interview in yet another business in Melbourne. Slamming govt on AS saying they don’t have a policy.
I can’t help but think that the govt would be better served to not blame Toxic everytime a boat arrives. They simply have to say our offshore policy is inline with current legislation and leave it at that.
SK – sad indeed for such a young guy so it wasn’t a good way to end a sporting weekend.
[I have not watched Sky Agenda for ages, but the agenda was clear. Continue the Labor bashing and try ever so hard to show that the govt is unstable and ready to fall over any day now.]
vic – I’m getting the impression more each day that there is a bit of desperation over at SkyAgenda. It’s agenda is not quite going to plan so the beatups are getting a trifle hysterical. Troy Bramston’s conversion to Murdochia is now complete after this morning’s episode – of course, it was all done in the cause of Labor having to get ‘an identity at its heart’.
TW answered the first part of his interview with clear statements that he wasn’t too unhappy with this poll. It only needed 1 question, 1 answer but Gilbert went on and on so I guess TW thought ‘I’ll put this little sod and his beloved OO and its newspoll where it belongs’. Voila – TW’s words were said with very strong emphasis.
BTW TW also told Fran Kelly that he didn’t take much heed from the OO’s newspoll.
BH
The desperation on Sky Agenda today was palpable.
[I can’t help but think that the govt would be better served to not blame Toxic everytime a boat arrives. They simply have to say our offshore policy is inline with current legislation and leave it at that.]
Exactly, SK. I cringe every time Labor blames Abbott and I did it again this morning when my favourite, Andrew Leigh, spouted the lines.
It would be difficult for a rational person to contemplate that the Indies would do all that work on the Carbon Pricing Scheme, and then just throw it away, even to hold their seats at the next election.
I know stranger things have happened, but Windsor and Oakeshott don’t seem to be the types of chaps who are into those sorts of games.
Speaking of Cloud-Cuckoo Land, I heard Graeme Morris on ABC 702 this morning (up against Hawker) saying that there would be absolutely no repercussions against Abbott for cancelling billions of dollars of Carbon Certificates.
The meme they are trying to sell (Morris on ABC, the 2GB stooges, Pearson yesterday) is that somehow Abbott’s warning to all and sundry that he would abrogate the Constitution’s “just terms” provision – s.51(xxxi) – overrides anything the High Court would understand as, y’know, the law.
They are trying to turn it into caveat emptor situation. Caveat emptor might apply to the sale of a house, or the purchase of a flat screen TV over the net, but when it comes to the Constitution, there is a whole nother ball game, one that involves more than “they was warned” platitudes.
The Constitution is there to sort out these situations, in black letter law. It doesn’t matter what Abbott says, or thinks he says, or claims he was saying, the law is the law, and the Constitution is a particularly important part of it, not to be toyed with lightly.
The other aspect of all this is that the responsibility for losing property rights in Carbon Certificates is being sheeted home, not to those who are contemplating cancelling them, but to the participants themselves. “It’s all their own fault!”
Bound to be a winner, that one.
I would like to see Abbott stand up in front of a panel of very large business people and try to tell them “Tough cheddar” when they complained about billions being confiscated from their bottom lines, just in order to please the Grey Nomads. This would be just before he asks them to kick in with donations, too, I presume. I think he’d be lucky to leave the room alive.
I’ve seen this scenario covered in the OO. The new rationale from the Deep Thinkers at Lib HQ is that the Coalition doesn’t need big Business donations or support anymore. They’re going to get their donations and support from the Mums and Dads (they of the “lying scrag” pronouncements and the spectacularly successful Convoy project). Grass roots stuff. This smacks, to the casual observer, of the Coalition starting to believe in their own publicity, relying more on Ray Hadley Sense than Common Sense.
In Hadley World (and Smith World, and Jones World) a few people turning up to the lawn of Parliament House equals a “Revolution”. Their callers regularly express the belief that Hadley, who can fix problems with petty bureaucracy just by a phone call, and does so regularly, can somehow have a word with Quentin Bryce and get the government sacked. They ask him to do this daily, always a few calls to this end.
In Hadley World you can have a Double Dissolution between lunchtime and afternoon tea, with no triggers. You can call elections any time you want. The NBN is outdated technology. The size of the Prime Minister’s bum, or the depth of her curtsy is enough for her to be labelled “traitor”. It’s a crazy place. I go there occasionally, but only to observe, not participate.
As far as threatening to shake down business, I’m sure Wiser Heads in the Coalition will prevail, eventually, but I think Abbott will do a lot of damage to the Liberal brand (and to its coffers) before the Grey Eminences finally get off their arses and have that quiet word with him.
mytbw – that VexNews article on Troy Bramston is a slap in the face for him and looks as thought he deserves every bit of it.
No wonder he’s spruiking for Murdoch now.
[I can’t help but think that the govt would be better served to not blame Toxic everytime a boat arrives. They simply have to say our offshore policy is inline with current legislation and leave it at that.]
Blaiming Tone muddies the water and that’s all the government needs to do IMHO.
Haha, thank you BH for transcribing. A great put down by Windsor.
I heard him on Radio Fran this morning, and when he said “Well, the poll was commissioned by News Limited so you have to put that codicil on it” I could tell he doesn’t hold them in very high regard.
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@juliagillard. Please do not blame Tony Abbott everytime a boat arrives. Simply say onshore processing is in line with current legislation.
]
BH
Bramston had absolutely nothing positive to say about Labor today. It was a bashfest.
[As far as threatening to shake down business, I’m sure Wiser Heads in the Coalition will prevail, eventually]
Andrew Elder says those Wiser Heads will stay away from an Abbott-led Liberal party rather than tar their careers.
[Abbott, as I’ve said elsewhere, needs a serious staff and he needs it now. Trouble is, no such staff is available to Abbott. For any Liberal to swap state government (or the prospect thereof in Queensland) for a stint with Abbott would reflect political acumen so callow they could not possibly contribute anything toward the Coalition cause.]
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/10/flick-switch.html
And I love how he refers to abbott’s current staff as “events organisers” and “press release wranglers”. 😆
@confessions/124,
Wiser heads in the Coalition party will topple him, rather than letting him lead a party…
victoria – read the vexnews link that mytbw found. You’ll understand what Bramston is about.
Anytime, burgey – I did shorthand at HIgh School against the wishes of the school and family because I wanted to be a journo. I had to do it outside normal class times to fit in all my subjects. I’ve found it very handy over the years. And I got over wanting to be a journo when I was told that I would have to start off covering the social scene, as in who wasn’t wearing the correct gloves and hat… urgghh! I thought I’d be assigned to cover exciting stuff from Day 1.
zoidlord
If Abbott continues down this path, he will need to be toppled
[Latika Bourke
@latikambourke
MT @SteveGibbonsMP @latikambourke Bitar’s comments are laughable given he & his mates appalling strategy in the 2010 election campaign.]
MEDIA INQUIRY AND ABC BIAS
Just a reminder for those concerned about bias on the ABC. The closing date for submissions to the Independent Media Inquiry is coming up on 31 October 2011. Readers/Poll Bludgers are encouraged to put down their thoughts on this matter in submission form and send them to the Media Inquiry.
Below is the transcript of an email sent by the Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy in response to a query on how submissions may be made.
The Terms of Reference are here: http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/media_releases/2011/254 I draw your attention to the particular section which would best accommodate such submissions – Section (d), quote:
[Any related issues pertaining to the ability of the media to operate according to regulations and codes of practice, and in the public interest.]
________________
[Good morning Mr xxxx
I refer to your email to the Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy of 29 September 2011 concerning the submission process for the Independent Media Inquiry.
Submissions to the inquiry should be received by 31 October 2011.
The preferred method for submissions is by email to media-inquiry@dbcde.gov.au
Please address any submission by mail to:
Media Inquiry
PO Box 2154
CANBERRA ACT 2601
Please note, submissions to the Inquiry will be made public where possible. If you wish for your submission (or part of your submission) to be treated as confidential then you should clearly indicate which part of the submission is confidential and provide reasons for that.
Please also include your name, organisation (if relevant) and contact details. Note that the maximum size for any email (including all attachments) is 3 megabytes. Please attach only files in a standard document format (such as .doc, .odt, .pdf, .rtf, .txt), or a standard image format (such as .jpg, .gif, .tif).
Regards
Brian Kelleher
Media Inquiry Secretariat
Phone +61 2 6271 1382
http://www.dbcde.gov.au/media-inquiry
GPO Box 2154 Canberra ACT 2601]
==============
Windsor blamed The Australian bias for the poll however The Australian just published the poll which was actually carried out by News Poll. He sounded like a person in denial who is ignoring the anger of the people who voted for him. I am not sure that will have the affect of calming down his constituents.
Paywall is now up at The Australian. articles I linked earlier thie morning now no longer fully visible.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
DavidWH
Windsor did not blame the Oz for the poll.
Leroy
Hurray!!
http://www.theage.com.au/technology/turnbull-indicates-no-faith-in-nbn-boss-20111023-1meik.html
[Turnbull indicates no faith in NBN boss
Peter Martin, Lucy Battersby
October 24, 2011]
Windsor not worried about the poll & intends to contest the next election
[Federal independent MP Tony Windsor has shrugged off an opinion poll showing he could lose his seat at the next election.
Voter support for both Mr Windsor (New England) and another key NSW independent, Rob Oakeshott (Lyne), has slumped since the 2010 election, a Newspoll shows.
Both MPs were instrumental in Labor forming a minority government and in securing lower house support for the carbon tax.
Primary support for Mr Windsor in his rural NSW seat has dropped from 61.9 per cent to 33 per cent and he trails the Nationals 47-53 per cent after preferences.
The MP puts the loss of support down to anti-carbon tax sentiment.
“I guess that is because of the fear campaign that was run,” he told ABC Radio, adding that many people, including farmers, were not aware of the benefits of the government’s carbon pricing package.
“It’s obvious they don’t know the detail, the detail hasn’t been well marketed.”
Despite the poll, Mr Windsor said he was determined to contest the next election.
“At the moment, I do, yes, my word,” he said.]
– Source: ninemsn
OT but I need computer advice.
How do I turn off a laptop that is jammed? On my pc I can simply turn it off at the wall.
Please don’t laugh. This is serious 😀
Leroy:
Looks like Paul Kelly and the Newspoll results are paywalled.
victoria I didn’t say he blamed the Australian just their bias against him and the Independents. He also blamed the carbon tax so at least he is being a realist there. He ignored the other major reason for his loss of support and that is his decision to support Labor after the election which hasn’t gone well with the large conservative vote in his seat.
[Blaiming Tone muddies the water and that’s all the government needs to do IMHO.]
Gary, I am with you there. And the fact is he must share the responsibility (assuming off shore processing is a deterrent).
So neither member will be keen for an election any time soon.
“William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.”
2004 to present.
Taking a long time to finish that PhD, William.
Maybe you are spending too much time messing about on the Internet 🙂
lizzie:
Just hold down the on/off button on the laptop for a few seconds until it shuts down.
confessions
Oh, thank you. :kiss:
Done and it worked.
confessions
[Leroy:
Looks like Paul Kelly and the Newspoll results are paywalled.]
Tragically so also are Pearson,Shanana,Sheridan and ALL of their editorials 😀 Sadly the toonists have all been gold barred 🙁
[Windsor blamed The Australian bias for the poll however The Australian just published the poll which was actually carried out by News Poll. He sounded like a person in denial who is ignoring the anger of the people who voted for him. I am not sure that will have the affect of calming down his constituents.]
Windsor blames the OZ for writing silly bullshit — which they do in response to every poll by twisting the interpretation or focusing on one negative aspect whilst ignoring anything that is positive for govt (last week’s rise in primaries a case in point — a few months ago every point the primaries went down was ‘DIRE’ for govt, now is rising again, is a non-event)
The other pertinent thing is Newspoll is paid for by the OZ, therefore it is their weapon of choice!
jenauthor
I love how Windsor said the Oz was a disgrace!
womble
[I thought he would say something stupid and get hammered – it didn’t happen.]
Everything he says is stupid, it never gets disected by Mordor and his myrmidons.
They have a solid vested interest in regime change and aren’t interested in facts or the truth, only propping up Toxic Tone.
I do think if the ABC started to do like CNN does and have a “Poll of Polls” would stop the silliness and agenda setting by Limited News.
This is an aggregate of all the polls. This would give the ABC the chance to say what the agenda is as opposed to what Limited News says.