Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead out from 57-43 to 59-41, with the Coalition up three to 50 per cent, Labor steady on 27 per cent and the Greens down two to 12 per cent. The worse damage from the Malaysia solution wreckage is for Julia Gillard personally, who has recorded the fifth worst net satisfaction rating in Newspoll history: 23 per cent approval and 68 per cent disapproval, surpassed only by four results for Paul Keating in the months following the 1993 budget (a pattern emerges of voters reacting unfavourably to unpromised tax initiatives). On the question of preferred Labor leader, Kevin Rudd is apparently up 21 points to 57 per cent – although I’m not sure when the earlier poll was conducted (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes once again does my homework for me: it was conducted in mid-April). Gillard is down five to 24 per cent. Tony Abbott meanwhile is up three points on approval to 39 per cent and down three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-38 to 43-34.

The first tranche of the Newspoll was delivered by The Australian yesterday, with two questions on asylum seekers which were predictably unfavourable to the government. Just 12 per cent were willing to rate its performance on the issue very good (2 per cent) or somewhat good (10 per cent), against 25 per cent for somewhat bad and 53 per cent for very bad. Even as the issue began to escape Labor’s control in 2009, the party was able to maintain a 37 per cent good rating in April and 31 per cent in November, with respective bad ratings of 40 per cent and 53 per cent. However, the current poll shows the Liberals failing to yield a dividend: Labor have plunged 17 points to 12 per cent since a week before the 2010 election, but the Coalition too are down five points to 38 per cent: “someone else” is up five to 13 per cent, with none/uncommitted up 25 to 37 per cent.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research had the Coalition going from 56-44 to 57-43 from primary votes of 30 per cent for Labor (down two), 49 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens. It should be remembered that Essential Research is a two-week rolling average, meaning half the survey sample comes from before last week’s High Court ruling. The poll also finds 48 per cent favouring an election now against 40 per cent for a full term. The wording of the question, “do you think the Labor government should run its full term until 2013 when the next federal election is due”, is greatly preferable to the somewhat leading effort from last week’s Queensland Galaxy poll, “would you be in favour of or opposed to holding a fresh election to give voters an opportunity to elect a majority Labor or Coalition government”. Similar questions to Essential’s from Newspoll produced 42 per cent each way in May, and 40 per cent for and 44 per cent against in March.

Among the other questions are one gauging levels of recognition and trust in eight media commentators, which I’m pleased to say they took up on my suggestion. Strong results for Laurie Oakes, George Negus and Tony Jones bear out a well-understood tendency of this kind of inquiry to favour those in the medium of television. It might thus be thought all the more remarkable that Alan Jones is rated the least trusted of the eight: he has a near universal recognition rating of 84 per cent, and those outside New South Wales would only know him by television. Andrew Bolt scores a much more modest recognition rating of 52 per cent, but rates quite a lot higher on trust; Melbourne radio rivals Neil Mitchell and Jon Faine record mediocre results, and Michelle Grattan rather better ones. Also in Essential is a question on best leader to handle another global financial crisis, which has 40 per cent choosing one of the three Liberal options (20 per cent for Tony Abbott, 13 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 7 per cent for Joe Hockey) and 37 per cent the two from Labor (Kevin Rudd characteristically well in front of Julia Gillard, 24 per cent to 13 per cent). Forty-six per cent support the government’s mineral resource rent tax against 34 per cent opposed, and mining, agriculture and tourism rated the most important industries for Australia’s economic future.

Further afield, yesterday’s Launceston Examiner published results from an EMRS poll of 300 respondents in Bass, which found Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic leading Labor incumbent Geoff Lyons 46 per cent to 31 per cent on the primary vote after distribution of the undecided. Distributing the 14 per cent Greens and 6 per cent others as per the 2010 election result, this gives Nikolic a lead of 53-47 (the Examiner has figures based on arbitrary preference splits which are slightly more favourable to the Liberals). The poll was conducted from August 22 to August 25, from the same sample that produced EMRS’s recent poll of state voting intention. Comments thread chat suggests EMRS preceded the question on voting intention with attitudinal questions on the carbon tax and detention centres, in breach of fairly well established polling convention which says such questions can influence the responses that follow. However, the suggested swing of nearly 10 per cent is fairly well in line with the national trend.

Last and probably least, the Courier-Mail informs us that a Galaxy poll shows 23 per cent of respondents saying they are “likely” to vote for Bob Katter’s Australian Party. It transpires that voters were specifically asked if they would be either “very likely” or “quite likely” to support the party after first being presented with a more normal question on voting intention, which turned up very little support for it. Beyond that, it is not clear whether this is a foretaste of another Galaxy poll of Queensland or, as I assume more likely, an extra question held back from last week’s poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,512 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  2. BTW, in due deference to the very real feelings of a poster who lost a family pet, I have desisted from going popcorn on cats.

    That said, there is a statute of limitations on my silence.

  3. THE Coalition will lose thousands of crucial votes in winnable seats unless Tony Abbott publicly condemns Senator Cory Bernardi’s involvement with the controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders, the Lebanese Muslim Association has warned.

    So when this loathsome sod is in Sydney, Melbourne, Brissy, Adelaide & Perth etc he will Geert by Sea ?

  4. gg
    It surprises me that Mr B is only three times more popular than Ms G. There is going to have to be a bit of thinning done to get it to where it belongs: 1000 times more popular than Ms G.

  6. [the Lebanese Muslim Association has warned.]

    i am quite surpirsed they would vote liberal in the first place considering abbotts stand on AS ect

  7. [I have desisted from going popcorn on cats.]

    You mean you have something unkind to say about fluffy, cute, affectionate feline creatures?

  10. Polyquats Janet Cumming

    @Gwillotine: I’m not saying Gina Rinehardt is big, but my furniture creeks when she’s on tv.
    20 minutes ago

  11. Burgey @ 5281

    [Bumped into the great PJK on Elizabeth Street this morning on my way to work.

    Looks in fine fettle too. Wish he’d make a come back.]

    A close encounter of the best kind! As a contrast, I had the dire misfortune to be sitting behind Peter Reith on a flight from Melbourne to Sydney one recent evening, and his high decibel whining about all things Gillard eventually got too much for me, so I told him to keep his voice down, as not all of us were unreconstructed fascists.

    He didn’t take to kindly to this description of his good self, harrumphing and blustering, but he was reasonably silent for the rest of the flight, much to my satisfaction!

  17. For a more balanced coverage of the Pacific Forum than we’re likely to get in the Oz media Sea levels Pacific’s big worry The NZ rugby outfits (sneaky publicity Mr Key) look far better than the usual silly shirts (besides which, delegates’ ‘lations & friends will be lined up, begging for them); though some rival PI leaders weren’t too happy with with a silver fern on the chest in a sly show of support for the All Blacks.

    BTW, you can express support for the Samoans by voting for them in the nzh poll (LHcolumn)

    Hope the italics have disappeared.

  18. It does seem that Labor is leaning towards a cowardly and tawdry deal with the Libs to allow both their respective overlapping AS travesties to proceed. Not at all surprising that the party is actively considering that, given their conscious lurch to the right, but if they do, it will make the next election even more of a forlorn hope. It would be terminal for the primary vote, because the progressives won’t come back – many like me will vote informal in the House and just vote for the Greens in the Senate – and Lib supporters aren’t going to change to Labor just because it follows the Libs. Diplodocus has emerged from the Labor meeting rooms and grazes the earth once more. 😀

  20. BB @ 5329

    [To have it shoved in your ear at 6.30am on an otherwise fairly mild radio station that people turn to to get away from the shock jocks is about as low as the ABC can go. They should get Clarke off the air and send him back to whatever sheltered radio workshop he came from. And good riddance.]

    Spot on … Clarke’s droning and soporific manner, and reactionary opinions have sent me scrambling back to Triple J in the mornings, or reaching for the CDs in the car.

    This is yet another example of the retrograde standards of the ABC, when even duds and rejects from 2GB can get a gig at the debased national broadcaster with the long suffering taxpayer footing the bill.

    Thanks, Mark Scott, for nuthin’!

  21. BW, Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc is NOT happy.

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Abbott says he has the “patent” on offshore processing. No, he doesnt have the intellectual bit to create the IPs. He’s too stupid #auspol
    51 seconds ago

  23. [Just read the latest “revelations” concerning the “emabattled” Craig Thomson. The story mentions another credit card by another company being given to Thomson and Williamson then goes on to say how Williamson allegedly overspent or misspent or something but nothing more about Thomson.
    Mpre trial by media it seems.]

    Gary I read it and came to the same conclusion as you. I mean, does this Kate McClymont thinks it’s a clever tactic to wait until the Police state they are pursuing Thomson before coming out with the next bit of spittle. What a grub.

  28. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-09/20110909coca-cola-recycle-challenge/2878504

    [The Territory parliament has passed a law putting a 10 cent deposit on cans and drink bottles that can be redeemed by Territorians when they take the containers to a recycling depot.
    Coca-Cola Amatil corporate affairs manager Alec Wagstaff says the company is planning a legal challenge to the law.]
    [South Australia has had a similar scheme to that planned for the Territory in place for decades.]

    Companies don’t like anything new except their own product.

  29. TBS

    [unreconstructed fascists]

    It’s like calling Labor Party people unreconstructed communists. It’s aint right.

    It’s an attack from th gutter to call someone a fascist.

    The cheering and support for such degrading and unbecoming behaviour is striking really.

  30. [A close encounter of the best kind! As a contrast, I had the dire misfortune to be sitting behind Peter Reith on a flight from Melbourne to Sydney one recent evening, and his high decibel whining about all things Gillard eventually got too much for me, so I told him to keep his voice down, as not all of us were unreconstructed fascists.

    He didn’t take to kindly to this description of his good self, harrumphing and blustering, but he was reasonably silent for the rest of the flight, much to my satisfaction!]

    I would have been tempted to garrot him if I’d been sitting behind him.

  33. [Fascists seek to purge forces, ideas, people, and systems deemed to be the cause of decadence and degeneration, and to produce their nation’s rebirth based on commitment to the national community based on organic unity, in which individuals are bound together by suprapersonal connections of ancestry, culture, and blood.[4]]

    A quote from Wikipedia.

  34. Post re Thomson should read: “..Police state they are NOT pursuing Thomson before coming out with the next bit of spittle. “

  35. [Be honest. Do you admire Peter Reith? Let’s get it out there.]

    What has that got to do with anything???

    If I told you all that walking along the street and I saw Wayne Swan and I went up to him and called him an unreconstructed communist you’d be up in arms but you all think it’s smashing to call a former Liberal a fascist. Very sad indictment on the character of many of poster on PB 🙁

    For your information I think Peter did a good job until 2001. After that not so good.

  37. [Gwillotine©
    @Gwillotine
    Abbott’s continuing call for Thomson to explain now that there is nothing to explain is wearing very thin. Time to talk legislation maybe?
    10 minutes ago via web]

  41. JV 5368 it will be an interesting situation if the Labs and Libs team up to create a policy that combines Pacific Solution with Malaysian Solution.

    The Malpac or Pacsian Policy.

    Brown would be livid and somewhat impotent.

  43. Gazza: it depends on which MP you are talking to.

    Swan is clearly not and has never been a communist; he is in the Right to begin with.

    Reith on the other hand, does have some fascist credentials. One look at his time as Minister for Industrial Relations – and particularly his behaviour during the waterfront dispute – would show it is actually a good call.

  45. [Reith on the other hand, does have some fascist credentials. One look at his time as Minister for Industrial Relations – and particularly his behaviour during the waterfront dispute – would show it is actually a good call.]

    Danny the more you call Reith a fascist the more you bring yourself into the gutter. You have no clue if you’re calling an Australian mainstream politician a fascist and thinking that’s an apt description of them.

  48. Gazza: I’m going to wait to see how the MSM react to my slur and if they publish a poll showing Australians are 60/40 against what I said then I will claim to have been taken out of context 😉

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