GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead out from 57-43 to 59-41, with the Coalition up three to 50 per cent, Labor steady on 27 per cent and the Greens down two to 12 per cent. The worse damage from the Malaysia solution wreckage is for Julia Gillard personally, who has recorded the fifth worst net satisfaction rating in Newspoll history: 23 per cent approval and 68 per cent disapproval, surpassed only by four results for Paul Keating in the months following the 1993 budget (a pattern emerges of voters reacting unfavourably to unpromised tax initiatives). On the question of preferred Labor leader, Kevin Rudd is apparently up 21 points to 57 per cent – although I’m not sure when the earlier poll was conducted (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes once again does my homework for me: it was conducted in mid-April). Gillard is down five to 24 per cent. Tony Abbott meanwhile is up three points on approval to 39 per cent and down three on disapproval to 52 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-38 to 43-34.
The first tranche of the Newspoll was delivered by The Australian yesterday, with two questions on asylum seekers which were predictably unfavourable to the government. Just 12 per cent were willing to rate its performance on the issue very good (2 per cent) or somewhat good (10 per cent), against 25 per cent for somewhat bad and 53 per cent for very bad. Even as the issue began to escape Labor’s control in 2009, the party was able to maintain a 37 per cent good rating in April and 31 per cent in November, with respective bad ratings of 40 per cent and 53 per cent. However, the current poll shows the Liberals failing to yield a dividend: Labor have plunged 17 points to 12 per cent since a week before the 2010 election, but the Coalition too are down five points to 38 per cent: “someone else” is up five to 13 per cent, with none/uncommitted up 25 to 37 per cent.
Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research had the Coalition going from 56-44 to 57-43 from primary votes of 30 per cent for Labor (down two), 49 per cent for the Coalition (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens. It should be remembered that Essential Research is a two-week rolling average, meaning half the survey sample comes from before last week’s High Court ruling. The poll also finds 48 per cent favouring an election now against 40 per cent for a full term. The wording of the question, “do you think the Labor government should run its full term until 2013 when the next federal election is due”, is greatly preferable to the somewhat leading effort from last week’s Queensland Galaxy poll, “would you be in favour of or opposed to holding a fresh election to give voters an opportunity to elect a majority Labor or Coalition government”. Similar questions to Essential’s from Newspoll produced 42 per cent each way in May, and 40 per cent for and 44 per cent against in March.
Among the other questions are one gauging levels of recognition and trust in eight media commentators, which I’m pleased to say they took up on my suggestion. Strong results for Laurie Oakes, George Negus and Tony Jones bear out a well-understood tendency of this kind of inquiry to favour those in the medium of television. It might thus be thought all the more remarkable that Alan Jones is rated the least trusted of the eight: he has a near universal recognition rating of 84 per cent, and those outside New South Wales would only know him by television. Andrew Bolt scores a much more modest recognition rating of 52 per cent, but rates quite a lot higher on trust; Melbourne radio rivals Neil Mitchell and Jon Faine record mediocre results, and Michelle Grattan rather better ones. Also in Essential is a question on best leader to handle another global financial crisis, which has 40 per cent choosing one of the three Liberal options (20 per cent for Tony Abbott, 13 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 7 per cent for Joe Hockey) and 37 per cent the two from Labor (Kevin Rudd characteristically well in front of Julia Gillard, 24 per cent to 13 per cent). Forty-six per cent support the government’s mineral resource rent tax against 34 per cent opposed, and mining, agriculture and tourism rated the most important industries for Australia’s economic future.
Further afield, yesterday’s Launceston Examiner published results from an EMRS poll of 300 respondents in Bass, which found Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic leading Labor incumbent Geoff Lyons 46 per cent to 31 per cent on the primary vote after distribution of the undecided. Distributing the 14 per cent Greens and 6 per cent others as per the 2010 election result, this gives Nikolic a lead of 53-47 (the Examiner has figures based on arbitrary preference splits which are slightly more favourable to the Liberals). The poll was conducted from August 22 to August 25, from the same sample that produced EMRS’s recent poll of state voting intention. Comments thread chat suggests EMRS preceded the question on voting intention with attitudinal questions on the carbon tax and detention centres, in breach of fairly well established polling convention which says such questions can influence the responses that follow. However, the suggested swing of nearly 10 per cent is fairly well in line with the national trend.
Last and probably least, the Courier-Mail informs us that a Galaxy poll shows 23 per cent of respondents saying they are “likely” to vote for Bob Katter’s Australian Party. It transpires that voters were specifically asked if they would be either “very likely” or “quite likely” to support the party after first being presented with a more normal question on voting intention, which turned up very little support for it. Beyond that, it is not clear whether this is a foretaste of another Galaxy poll of Queensland or, as I assume more likely, an extra question held back from last week’s poll.
JV,
I’ve already quoted a number of opinion pieces from outside the PB bubble. So your accusations are false.
I’d never want you to stop posting. You always provide comedy relief with your rhetorical blatherskating and you are an ever reliable compass of exactly the wrong things to do in any political situation. Thank you.
Darn
[Apparently he is also quite popular with women (according to a documentary I saw), which I fail to understand, but it would certainly be a bonus if true.]
It is true he is a charmer! He is softly spoken not verbose and he doesn’t talk down to people he simply states his case. He is measured in his approach respectful thoughtful and not an ego maniac and you just know he has a heart.
Boerwar,
Apparently, they have polls though. And, they always tell you exactly what will happen at the next election.
[awelder Andrew Elder
@
@lapuntadelfin He backed down over Plibersek, he was always going to. Now he gets no credit for either basic decency or “toughness”. Stupid.]
Agree with dave though. Watch for the pair to be withdrawn when the sideshow has moved on.
Boerwar
113 farenheit = 45 celcius -pretty damn hot – the same temperature as when bush fires ravaged Victoria on black Saturday, with catastrophic results.
BTW What is the latest situation with the tests you were having?
Laura Tingle’s column today has made me change my position.
Gillard and Bowen should stick with Malaysia.
Abbott will play it up for all he can get short term, but long term, he’s in deep trouble on asylum seeker policy. He’s been told that the only solution that will stop the boats is Malaysia and the Nauru and PNG options won’t work (because people smugglers convince asylum seekers that they’ll get into Australia anyway under those policies).
Tingle also takes a funny shot at the Greens noting their hypocrisy at calling the immigration department Turkey’s when they are seeking advice from the department (gobble, gobble)
The Australian Online understands Labor and the opposition are considering a compromise which would put offshore processing beyond doubt, while allowing transfer arrangements in which asylum-seekers are relocated to third countries such as Malaysia.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/partnership-tested-as-julia-gillard-rejects-bob-browns-asylum-attack/story-fn9hm1gu-1226132952269?from=public_rss
spur212
Tingle is right. Nauru and PNG wont stop the smugglers. Processing asylum seekers there is the same as CI only a bucket load more expensive.
Abbotts Hypocrisy: The Liberal Party’s Paid Parental Leave Policy. Just read the exec summary: http://bit.ly/omdtel
32000 ounces of gold in a ton. 29 tons. $1800 per ounce.
= $16,704,000,000
Maybe there is a bit of confusion about tonne and ton? Plus the ‘local merchants’ were probably buying the stuff at a special price, given the risks involved.
GG
Here’s a laugh for you – I’m in favour of Labor policy as it is writ on the processing of asylum seekers onshore. 😀
Darn
I am procastinating on getting the next set of tests. Still in the dark, really.
spur:
I said immediately after the HC ruling that the govt should put amendments to the Migration Act to parliament to enable the deal with Malaysia to be fulfilled. I still think this is what they should do.
Victoria
Tingle reported it, Andrew Metcalfe said it.
GG
They have polls? As in, ‘We will ask all the questions here?’
spur212
Thanks for clarification
Mr Abbott on Sky has just done a backflip on giving Mr Thomson a pair for the birth of his baby.
SK
When it comes to Abbott, hypocrisy is thy name
Heh, I thought for something lighter this was nice:
[Before departing Auckland after the three-day Pacific Islands Forum, Ms Gillard received a brief rugby lesson as she and partner Tim Mathieson held a reception for the Wallabies on the eve of the World Cup.
During the reception Mr Mathieson grabbed a football and called out “show us some ball action Julia”.
The PM replied: “Me? I reckon I can do the catching bit” as she was given a quick lesson in how to throw, amid jokes that she might try to handball.
Ms Gillard gave the team the best wishes of the nation and asked them to help her block back at the “perpetual abuse” from New Zealand’s PM John Key.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/samoan-pm-tells-gillard-ignore-polls/story-fn7x8me2-1226132818356
had the pleasure of feigning being sick as I slowly drove a disturbed looking mr abbott this morning now I feel terrific .
Abbott must be in a flipflop mood. He’s backtracking as carefully as he can on Thomson’s pair and I betcha we’ll hear that he’s read the riot act to Bernardi after this article.
[THE Coalition will lose thousands of crucial votes in winnable seats unless Tony Abbott publicly condemns Senator Cory Bernardi’s involvement with the controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilders, the Lebanese Muslim Association has warned.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/muslims-in-warning-on-bernardi-comments-20110908-1jztf.html#ixzz1XPt9Qm4w
So Barnaby has only tweeted twice, eh?
Anyone want to guess what those two were?
Mine:
1. Testing, testing
2. Is this thing on?
Tony Abbott says he has the “patent” on offshore processing.
mickt
Are you a comcar driver?
victoria,
Couldn’t have said it better!
JV,
That’s probably 20 times you’ve posted that little nugget.
The Government has a different policy. How about that! Labor Governments often have policies at variance with the Party. Can happen when there is a change of circumstances and knowledge during the interim betwen conferences.
Of course you, as a well respected Member of longstanding of the ALP can attend the conference as an elected delegate in November and seek to re confirm the Policy you prefer.
Oh, that’s right you are not a Member, have never been a Member and the full extent of your committment to the Labor cause is bagging the Government on PB.
As I have told you before, the last 40 odd years have been a time of enormous success for the ALP. All done without taking any input or notice of you. Long may that situation continue.
triton
Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co will be sending a team of legal industry representatives to Mr Abbott to advise him on patenting stuff.
Admittedly, he beat us to patenting rights on bardardry, inhumanity and sociopathy, but we are still ahead of him in some other areas of patenting social mahem.
Boerwar,
They have “guided” polling in Fiji.
[Before going to 2GB Phillip Clarke presented the breakfast program on ABC 702. When he switched to 2GB to do their afternoon program he was replaced on 702 by Angela Catterns.]
Yeah, I knew that, but so what? Clarke was a right-wing ratbag when he was at 702, no wonder he got a gig at 2GB.
Clarke is a lawyer by profession, who thinks he’s some kind of God-given gift to journalism.
I need something to wake myself up in the morning. I usedto have 702 preset, then in desperation at the inane ramblings of Adam Spencer, I tried Radio National, just down the dial.
There was always a chance that you could catch My Music or My Word before 6am if you couldn’t sleep. Then the awful Fran Kelly came on. I stuck RN our for a month and finally in exasperation returned to 702. At least Adam Spencer had a bit of fun. Kelly on RN was relentless (and let’s not forget You-Know-Who, La Stupenda, as her cherished guest mumbling on about this-could-happen, or that-might-happen, or maybe-something-else-altogether-will-happen).
Who did I find there at 702? Bloody Phillip Clarke.
Clarke is, was and always will be a supercilious, pompous, right-wing toady. He must have thought he’d hit the big time when he went to 2GB from 702 ABC. But he came back with his tail between his legs, a failure at even the low standards of 2GB.
The way he explained to his listeners today that Abbott hadn’t really said he was going to refuse a pair to Thomson was just dreadful. All I could think was how he would have put the boot in if it had been Albo or Gillard refusing a pair for someone to attend their child’s birth. And he went on and on with the breathless Kate Mc-whatsername, on the Thomson case, talking about bloody nothing. The reason? To keep the Thomson smear alive.
They way they pussyfooted around the legal traps was excruciating. Nevertheless, they got the story out. Thomson was guilty of…. something sinister. They extracted maximum smear with minimum legal exposure (I hope they were wrong).
Thomson may have been a bad boy, may be covering up for somebody. I don’t know. But to bring his wife and child into it is beyond the pale. Even the bloody Mafia doesn’t shoot family.
The media (principally the Fairfax mob) and the politicians are trying desperately to establish that Thomson has no right to sit in Parliament, whether or not he is found guilty of anything. They are trying to put pressure on him and the government by now going after his wife and child to be. Then, when there’s a bit of a reaction to the viciousness of that tactic, they back off and say, “Wasn’t me who said that”. As long as Thomson or his wife don’t top themselves they slap each other on the back and tell themselves it’s a job well-done. If something tragic does happen, then expect enough crocodile tears to flood the Ganges Valley.
Damn cowards.
We are becoming a nasty, vicious society if this is the new norm. A lynch mob mentality pervades every nook and cranny. The somewhat bland (but at least light-hearted) ABC morning show has been blighted by a second rate shock-jock spewing political bile and apologies for Abbott when he goes too far. Abbott is a protected species as far as the media is concerned. The whole country seems to be running on hatred, trumped up bootstrapping and phoney political crises that come to nothing every time.
To have it shoved in your ear at 6.30am on an otherwise fairly mild radio station that people turn to to get away from the shock jocks is about as low as the ABC can go. They should get Clarke off the air and send him back to whatever sheltered radio workshop he came from. And good riddance.
victoria, no delivery driver passed him around 8 this morning on the beachfront ,often have the displeasure usually ruins my day
mickt
I can see how that would ruin anyones day!
GG
[They have “guided” polling in Fiji.]
*laughs*
OK. I admit that I was 12 hours and 22 minutes out on when Mr Abbott would do that particular backflip.
Did a single journalist say to Mr Abbott,’Why were you being such a prick in the first place? Nah. Mr Bjelke-Petersen used to call it feeding the chooks.’
In Mr Abbott’s case it is more like feeding the capons. Not a set of cojones in sight.
Oh dear. We have Italic Syndrome again. 🙁
Hey, why did I suddenly go Italic in 5333?
5027 BB
Fabulous story, as only you can do.
5031 deblonay
Absolutely right on Joe Lyons. He was a moderate in the sense that he didn’t have strong views about anything, but said and did nothing of consequence, apart from prolonging the Depression. It’s not the Labor Rat that we despise (though that is also a factor, but more so Enid than Joe) it was the ‘do-nothing to offend banking and big business’ attitude.
Theodore was ten times the man; unfortunately his career got derailed by sabotaging Nationalists and the demagogue Lang.
I heard Kate McClymont on 2ue this morning, talking about these “new allegations” against Craing Thomson.
They seem to consist of his being provided an Amex card by a private company. There was not one thing said to the effect he used that card inappropriately. There were allegations to the effect Mr Williamson did.
I take it these are the matters the Liberal Party is referring to the Police.
OK, a bit off track, but …
For those fascinated by one of history’s greatest sieges (probably, given modern weaponry, its last) 1941-4’s 900 Days, the Siege of Leningrad, from ABC JustIn Diary of ‘Russian Anne Frank’ tells of Leningrad horror
Not nice reading for pet lovers, but some idea of how people survived.
If it sparks your interest. the “classic” is Harrison Salisbury’s 900 Days – the Siege of Leningrad; the middle section – I think it’ called “The Winter War”
As a history (esp Roman) tragic, I first encountered great sieges of Hannibal’s wars: Saguntum, Rome, Syracuse. Calais and its Burghers was in my school history books, as were the English Civil War’s sieges (some the subject of Time Team digs) and 1870-1 Siege of Paris. But something sets Leningrad apart; not just that it was in my lifetime – I later followed it in bound newspaper volumes (inc Courier Mail) in UQ’s basement repository – or its horrific death toll …
Or even that Leningraders did what had churned my stomach about one of Hannibal’s sieges of Roman allies: “nor did they disdain to eat rats” (I recall translating that) and they chewed harness straps and other leather – Leningraders boiled leather for meat jelly and soaked natural (bone & hoof) glue off book backs. It’s that, once I’d read the book, newspapers etc, I thought, “I can survive anything, because nothing worse than that could happen.”
[Each passing year deepens our realization of the triumph of man’s spirit marked by the survival of the great city of Leningrad under the 900-day siege imposed by Hitler’s legions in World War II.
Nothing can diminish the achievement of the men and women who fought on despite hunger, cold, disease, bombs, shells, lack of heat or transportation in a city that seemed given over to death. The story of those days is an epic which will stir human hearts as long as mankind exists on earth…
Only in one great country has The 900 Days: The Siege of Leningrad not been published. That country is the Soviet Union.]
The book explains why.
Burgey
Yes, and why are the damn Libs doing this again. This again is interference. When is the govt going to fight back?
The prima facie evidence is that BB is the culprit.
Someone needs to [i/]
Doesn’t work for me in Chrome
Has everyone else’s font gone to italics on PB in the past hour or so?
Or wait for post 5351.
Burgey: yes, and the finger has been pointed at BB. 😉
Mind you, if history is any indication, once we flip over to the next page it will right itself.
It’s just more evidence of the right slant of PB.
Formatting fail again on PB.
Attempted fix.
[victoria
Posted Friday, September 9, 2011 at 8:35 am | Permalink
Can someone tell me what the heck Thomson has done wrong?]
Maybe they’re trying the Catch-22 method. I think it was the military police with the outspoken Clevinger,
[“Oh that goddam bastard’s guilty as hell! And we’ll put him away as soon as we can find something to charge him with.”]
OPT
The most moving bit for me was when the Syphony Orchestra got back together and played with spaces where players had been who had died in the siege. The resulting sound is both weirdly ‘holey’ in parts, and weirdly ‘complete’ in the circumstances.
Not to forget:
(1) cannibalism
(2) Stalin did not mind too much that Leningrad copped a bit of curry. It was not his favourite city.