Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published results from its last two weekends of face-to-face surveying, with one period before the High Court ruling on the Malaysia solution and the other after. The poll actually shows a slight improvement for Labor on the poll covering the two weeks previous: their primary vote is steady on 32.5 per cent, but the Coalition is down three to 46.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. On the respondent-allocated preferences two-party preferred measure, this translates into a shift from 58.5-41.5 to 58-42; allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election, the shift is from 55.5-44.5 to 54.5-45.5. This is the biggest disparity yet recorded by Morgan between the two preference allocation methods, with Labor receiving just 45 per cent of minor party and independent preferences compared with 65.8 per cent at the election.

Also:

• I have been informed that an unpublished survey of 400 respondents in Western Australia, conducted six weeks ago by Patterson Market Research (which conducts, among other things, Westpoll for The West Australian), had federal voting intention at 57 per cent for the Coalition, 27 per cent for Labor and 9 per cent for the Greens, suggesting a two-party result of about 63-37. This points to a swing of about 6.5 per cent: Labor’s margins in the three Western Australian seats they still hold are 3.3 per cent in Brand, 5.7 per cent in Fremantle and 5.9 per cent in Perth. The margin of error on the poll is a bit under 5 per cent.

• Arthur Sinodinos, former chief-of-staff to John Howard, looks set to fill the NSW Liberal Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Helen Coonan after confirming his intention to nominate.

• In the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, Mal Brough’s election as Liberal National Party divisional branch chairman ahead of the preferred candidate of sitting member Peter Slipper is universally being interpreted as a portent of looming preselection defeat of the latter by the former. Slipper had said his position as an LNP member of parliament would become “untenable” if his candidate was defeated, but after the event claimed he had “never threatened to resign”.

• Jessica Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that as well as Brough, Tony Abbott has approached former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly and Parramatta MP Ross Cameron with a view to returning to parliament at the next election. Also on Abbott’s wish list is Tom Switzer, editor of The Spectator Australia and former opinion page editor for The Australian. Kelly at least has been unequivocal in denying any interest in a comeback, while Switzer appears to be holding out for a seat in Sydney after being discussed as a possible contender in Craig Thomson’s central coast seat of Dobell. It has further been reported that Gary Hardgrave and De-Anne Kelly, who lost their Queensland seats of Moreton and Dawson in 2007, have also “come in for attention”.

• Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons has announced he will bow out at the next election. Gibbons won the seat from the Liberals on the retirement of Bruce Reid in 1998 and consolidated thereafter, winning last year by a margin of 9.5 per cent. There was speculation that Senator David Feeney might seek refuge in the seat, having been unable to advance up the batting order from his highly loseable third position on the party ticket. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey described such reports as “erroneous”, and quoted Gibbons saying he “wouldn’t support David Feeney or anyone else administrative people from Melbourne impose on us”. Also mentioned by The Australian was Ben Hubbard, local native and chief-of-staff to the Prime Minister.

• Christian Kerr of The Australian suggests WA Liberal Senator Matthias Cormann has his eyes on preselection for the lower house seats of Pearce and Moore, to be vacated at the election by the retirements of Judi Moylan and Mal Washer. This threatens to be factionally problematic, as Cormann is of the Right whereas Moylan and Washer are noted moderates. Kerr’s report also foreshadows yet another preselection challenge to Tangney MP Dennis Jensen, who has twice required intervention from higher up to save him from preselection defeat at the local branch level.

• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reviews Liberal preselection jockeying for Corangamite, where Sarah Henderson is hoping for another crack after narrowly failing to unseat Labor’s Darren Cheeseman last year. She may face competition in the shape of Rod Nockles, an internet security expert who also sought preselection last time. Robert Hardie, an adviser to Senator Michael Ronaldson, was identified as a potential starter but declined to comment.

• Victorian Liberal Senators Helen Kroger and Scott Ryan are shaping up for a preselection contest for the second position on the party’s ticket at the next election, to be determined early next year. Kroger was elected from number two and Ryan from number three in 2007, but Ryan has since attained a more senior parliamentary position and is thus by party convention entitled to the higher place.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,038 comments on “Morgan: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. Leroy that link seems to have disappeared. In any case I will believe when I see it. Any proper tax forum that excludes taxes like the GST starts off with one hand tied behind it’s back.

  3. To be balanced JV both of the majors are suffering the same shortcomings at present and the real tragedy is that we seem to be doomed if we do and doomed if we don’t.

  4. According to Poll Bludger logic, the polls are irrelevant, unless they show Labor led by Julia Gillard surging to victory. 🙂

  7. Leroy,
    Double the proposed mining profits tax. Get rid of the bit that says the state resource royalties can be deducted from it.

    Bring in a Gina and Twiggy Tax, make them feel special with their own tax in their honour; 75% of everything in that year and no deductions.

    Every year pick a couple of the ultra-wealthy for the award, like a Rich Whingers’ Logie.

  11. 3007

    I don`t know how well a tax on 2 people would (I believe resident in the same state) would go down with the High Court. Would it cross the tax different between states and/or parts of states rule?

  12. [According to Poll Bludger logic, the polls are irrelevant, unless they show Labor led by Julia Gillard surging to victory.]
    Now back that up with evidence.

  13. JV pick either of the majors at present and we are doomed if we elect them and we are doomed if we don’t because we just get the other side. Also I use doomed in a rhetorical rather than a literal sense because organizations and individuals other than governments manage to keep the place working in spite of ordinary governments. it’s just the wasted opportunities!

  16. [Gary

    Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    According to Poll Bludger logic, the polls are irrelevant, unless they show Labor led by Julia Gillard surging to victory.

    Now back that up with evidence.
    ]

    Evan and Evidence are mutually exclusive concepts 🙂

  17. Thornleigh Labor Man
    I have to admit that I turned it off. Too much for me. I felt as if I was intruding on others’ misery. I know it was dreadful and will never forget what I saw on TV that night ten years ago but again? No. Similarly I couldn’t watch again the Japanese Tsunami coming ashore in those graphic amateur images we saw, or images of a flood in Bangladesh, or in Queensland last summer for that matter.

  23. Running with Rudd to win in the headline, but a word of caution in the article…

    [Pollster John Stirton urges caution about the big lift Mr Rudd gives the ALP vote. He says while there would certainly be a short-term boost, ”the real question is what would happen when the novelty wears off”.]

  24. [
    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Abbott: Approve 43 (0) Disapprove 52 (0) #auspol

    22 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Gillard: Approve 32 (-6) Disapprove 62 (+5) #auspol

    56 seconds ago

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 27 (-1) L/NP 48 (0) GRN 13 (+1) #auspol

    1 minute ago]

  26. DavidWH
    [JV pick either of the majors at present and we are doomed if we elect them and we are doomed if we don’t because we just get the other side.]
    Aha. Yes, I agree with you. I will be voting informal in the House, and Greens in the Senate, because that is the only way to keep a curb on Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

    As John Hewson said on The Gruen Transfer, how do you choose between a douche and a turd?

    I hope the HoR informal vote is sky high next election.

    That is, unless we see a glorious charismatic period of supreme progressive leadership spontaneously emanating from Julia Gillard’s second brain at the base of her tail. The other one above her neck has too much in common with a walnut – which has been terminally cracked by the SDA/AWU bosses.

  28. [3025

    gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    leroy

    rudd is being used as a panacea to labors troubles

    the reality is the meeja will crucify any labor leader

    scum
    ]

    Exactly.

    Yet some here are to blind to realise it and are being played like a fiddle.

  32. So what this is saying is that it is not the CT or the mining tax or the AS policy that’s the problem. Oh, no it’s all Gillard. Give me a break.

  33. Rudd a winner
    see pool
    ________________
    Harsh as it may seem…women are born to lose in Australian elections…Lawrence(WA)Kirner(Vic)Kennelly(NSW) and Carnell in the ACT. and soon Bligh(QLand)..all talented women but all losers at the polls

    So Gillard’s got to go
    or the result is a disaster at the polls for the ALP

    Sorry Girls but that’s the way it is in OZ…..
    Get used to it
    If you want to have a leader who can win
    get a man !

  34. [deblonay

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:11 am | Permalink

    Rudd a winner
    see pool
    ________________
    Harsh as it may seem…women are born to lose in Australian elections…Lawrence(WA)Kirner(Vic)Kennelly(NSW) and Carnell in the ACT. and soon Bligh(QLand)..all talented women but all losers at the polls

    So Gillard’s got to go
    or the result is a disaster at the polls for the ALP

    Sorry Girls but that’s the way it is in OZ…..
    Get used to it
    If you want to have a leader who can win
    get a man !
    ]

    What a load of cobblers – and Sexist as well.

  35. leroy

    the ole one two trick

    get rid of one and give it to two

    rudd would be pilloried in any election campaign with continual schtick about BER Batts etc

    JG at least has clear air on these issues

    AND THE FARKERS IN THE MEEJA KNOW IT

  37. [3035

    gusface

    Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 at 12:12 am | Permalink

    leroy

    the ole one two trick

    get rid of one and give it to two

    rudd would be pilloried in any election campaign with continual schtick about BER Batts etc

    JG at least has clear air on these issues

    AND THE FARKERS IN THE MEEJA KNOW IT
    ]
    And you forgot the obvious – Kevin O’Lemon – The Libs had the ads ready to run and Gillard ruined their perfect Election Campaign.

  38. Post 3026 includes a Saurian allusion: Diplodocus, an extinct dinosaur of great length with a huge tail, which has been thought to have second brain between its hips to drive things below. Some researchers say this may be going too far; it may just be a concentration of nerve tissue, but it is certainly bigger than the primary brain.

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