Roy Morgan has published results from its last two weekends of face-to-face surveying, with one period before the High Court ruling on the Malaysia solution and the other after. The poll actually shows a slight improvement for Labor on the poll covering the two weeks previous: their primary vote is steady on 32.5 per cent, but the Coalition is down three to 46.5 per cent and the Greens up 1.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. On the respondent-allocated preferences two-party preferred measure, this translates into a shift from 58.5-41.5 to 58-42; allocating preferences as per the result of the previous election, the shift is from 55.5-44.5 to 54.5-45.5. This is the biggest disparity yet recorded by Morgan between the two preference allocation methods, with Labor receiving just 45 per cent of minor party and independent preferences compared with 65.8 per cent at the election.
Also:
• I have been informed that an unpublished survey of 400 respondents in Western Australia, conducted six weeks ago by Patterson Market Research (which conducts, among other things, Westpoll for The West Australian), had federal voting intention at 57 per cent for the Coalition, 27 per cent for Labor and 9 per cent for the Greens, suggesting a two-party result of about 63-37. This points to a swing of about 6.5 per cent: Labor’s margins in the three Western Australian seats they still hold are 3.3 per cent in Brand, 5.7 per cent in Fremantle and 5.9 per cent in Perth. The margin of error on the poll is a bit under 5 per cent.
• Arthur Sinodinos, former chief-of-staff to John Howard, looks set to fill the NSW Liberal Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Helen Coonan after confirming his intention to nominate.
• In the Sunshine Coast seat of Fisher, Mal Brough’s election as Liberal National Party divisional branch chairman ahead of the preferred candidate of sitting member Peter Slipper is universally being interpreted as a portent of looming preselection defeat of the latter by the former. Slipper had said his position as an LNP member of parliament would become “untenable” if his candidate was defeated, but after the event claimed he had “never threatened to resign”.
• Jessica Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that as well as Brough, Tony Abbott has approached former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly and Parramatta MP Ross Cameron with a view to returning to parliament at the next election. Also on Abbott’s wish list is Tom Switzer, editor of The Spectator Australia and former opinion page editor for The Australian. Kelly at least has been unequivocal in denying any interest in a comeback, while Switzer appears to be holding out for a seat in Sydney after being discussed as a possible contender in Craig Thomson’s central coast seat of Dobell. It has further been reported that Gary Hardgrave and De-Anne Kelly, who lost their Queensland seats of Moreton and Dawson in 2007, have also “come in for attention”.
• Labor’s Bendigo MP Steve Gibbons has announced he will bow out at the next election. Gibbons won the seat from the Liberals on the retirement of Bruce Reid in 1998 and consolidated thereafter, winning last year by a margin of 9.5 per cent. There was speculation that Senator David Feeney might seek refuge in the seat, having been unable to advance up the batting order from his highly loseable third position on the party ticket. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey described such reports as “erroneous”, and quoted Gibbons saying he “wouldn’t support David Feeney or anyone else administrative people from Melbourne impose on us”. Also mentioned by The Australian was Ben Hubbard, local native and chief-of-staff to the Prime Minister.
• Christian Kerr of The Australian suggests WA Liberal Senator Matthias Cormann has his eyes on preselection for the lower house seats of Pearce and Moore, to be vacated at the election by the retirements of Judi Moylan and Mal Washer. This threatens to be factionally problematic, as Cormann is of the Right whereas Moylan and Washer are noted moderates. Kerr’s report also foreshadows yet another preselection challenge to Tangney MP Dennis Jensen, who has twice required intervention from higher up to save him from preselection defeat at the local branch level.
• Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reviews Liberal preselection jockeying for Corangamite, where Sarah Henderson is hoping for another crack after narrowly failing to unseat Labor’s Darren Cheeseman last year. She may face competition in the shape of Rod Nockles, an internet security expert who also sought preselection last time. Robert Hardie, an adviser to Senator Michael Ronaldson, was identified as a potential starter but declined to comment.
• Victorian Liberal Senators Helen Kroger and Scott Ryan are shaping up for a preselection contest for the second position on the party’s ticket at the next election, to be determined early next year. Kroger was elected from number two and Ryan from number three in 2007, but Ryan has since attained a more senior parliamentary position and is thus by party convention entitled to the higher place.
It will be interesting to watch these polls as the CP goes in and as the CP becomes a reality in everyones lives.
MJF is also facing a charge of assault. Does depression explain assault?
Jv 5508 previous
Thanks and I take your point on the Mental Health Act, though it woudl be interesting to see the wording of the SA Act.
Assuming hypothetically that Fisher’s mental illness is real and sufficient to justify her having charges dismissed, what are the rules for the Senate? Do you have to be mentally healthy to sit in it? Stand up comics will all say “evidently not”. Is there any rule on competence to sit in parliament?
William
Congratulations!!
No significant shift in Morgan relative to MOE. Steady as she sinks for Labor’s 2PP.
Yes William I hope they are paying you by the post! You are a drawcard for tragics.
William
That must be an Australian record. Is Crikey erecting a celebratory tablet somewhere?
And what does it all mean?
William
Thank you for all your work with this site. It gives an opportunity for those of us interested in politics to share in a discussion.
Your time tolerance efforts and patience are very much appreciated.
[Whoops. Looks like the meeja have done a mistake in reporting what Mr Metcalfe of the Immigration Department said at the media briefing earlier in the week.]
Why would anyone believe anything published in a newspaper in Australia?
SK
Yes the intro and arrival of CP as a reality is THE event I have been waiting for. This is the main event with everything else being pretty much the phony war.
What Tony Abbott predicts ———— http://tiny.cc/b0kyb
What I predict for Tony Abbott ——– http://tiny.cc/j7z5m
Socrates
[Is there any rule on competence to sit in parliament?]
As long as they’re no worse than Mad King George I’d say!
You could use one of the existing ones and add a bit to it:
[Hume, Hovell and Bowe passed this point in 2011.]
Another week / fortnight of the 2PP holding 57ish vs 43ish. Given the muck being thrown, a fair result with 2 years to go. Not sure if this makes sense, but it would be nice to see all these polls at 55/45 late 2011; then 54/46 early to mid 2012; then 52/48 late 2012 (after carbon price and tax cuts come through) and then kick off 2013 on a 50/50 basis. Sounds do-able when outlined like that.
William,
Morgan FTF has a bias to Labor normally.
Does such bias still apply when Labor are on the nose with voters?
Congratulation William 1,000,000 is a hell of a lot of political angst.
Boerwar
[ Is Crikey erecting a celebratory tablet somewhere?]
Bugger the erection, let’s all just take a celebratory tablet.
rua
[Whoops. Looks like the meeja have done a mistake in reporting what Mr Metcalfe of the Immigration Department said at the media briefing earlier in the week.]
So did Mr Brown call for public servants to be sacked on the basis of false MSM reports?
Mr Abbott’s madness is catchy.
William,
Do you have any figures on most posts by individuals, number of threads etc. Would be interesting to know.
7.30 (ABC1) — 536,000 + 24,000 on ABC News 24 simulcast.
Last night.
William
Which particular post number was the millionth?
bbb i think very doable, when the hard stuff s done and over then the sweeties can begin and why not howard only did sweeties
[This is the biggest disparity yet recorded by Morgan between the two preference allocation methods, with Labor receiving just 45 per cent of minor party and independent preferences compared with 65.8 per cent at the election.]
Are the Greens included as a minor party in that calculation William?
We have made history. It is a bit like eating a million Eskimo Pies.
poroti,
Priceless pics, may I post them on twitter?
It was We want Paul’s
morgan has a bias to labor,
how is that worked out?
Boerwar
[So did Mr Brown call for public servants to be sacked on the basis of false MSM reports?
Mr Abbott’s madness is catchy.]
To be fair to Bob even you wouldn’t expect them all in lock step in the manner of their misreporting.Sigh, maybe he should have.
Why do I feel even a bit good when the figures don’t plonge for Labor?
We want Paul’s
fantastic wwp made a big effort when i the states still visit
jv
[Is there any rule on competence to sit in parliament?
As long as they’re no worse than Mad King George I’d say!]
Seriously, if so that is an anomaly. Lots of jobs have rules that you are disqualified if mentally ill. Lucky for all concerned megalomania isn’t a certifiable condition.
When you account for the Labor bias in Morgan, the actual number is 110 Coalition to -10 Labor. 😉
And congrats on the milestone!
Space Kidette
[poroti,
Priceless pics, may I post them on twitter?]
Help yourself. The Abbott as squashed chicken little gives a very satisfying mental image.
Boerwar and well with all the crap around this week you think they may
but of course if all the UN crap was written up would be no crap in polls
Congrats to William and Crikey – such patience should reap rewards as well as our thanks.
May Crikey prosper.
At least we can rely on Bernard Keane to get the story right. Metcalf must feel like the PM does after being taken out of context.
Mr Abbott is a sociopath and lots of people think he is fit for parliament.
The problem may be that to some extent madness is in the eye of the beholder.
No 999,999.
Oh well, I’ll try for no 2,000,000.
so morgan the same as last time then
so steady as we go up?no wonder they want to keep the Mr thompson thing going
is me or has abbott gone quite on boats,
[This is the biggest disparity yet recorded by Morgan between the two preference allocation methods, with Labor receiving just 45 per cent of minor party and independent preferences compared with 65.8 per cent at the election.]
Although we know that what they say in polling doesn’t translate 100% to what they do at the ballot box, surely it wouldn’t be too reckless to infer from this increasing disparity that Labor is losing/has lost a significant number of Greens and independents’ preferences?
I reckon my one millionth second on PB is coming up.
[Is there any rule on competence to sit in parliament?]
I don’t know but she does seem lucid and aware, so any such rule would probably not apply to her, despite apparent occasional manic acts.
Good thing too. A lot of people have depression. It’s no laughing matter.
Perhaps we could remind Bob Brown to forage for the truth before believing the MSM.
It’s always a case of “Is that the truth or is your News Limited and Unfairfaxed”.
Dave,
William has pointed out before that the bias to the ALP seems to have gone out of the Morgan results, I think since the first polls after the previous election.
I don’t know whether that is due to a change at Morgan.
This little black duck
[I reckon my one millionth second on PB is coming up.]
You zoomed past that miles back. That is a mere 278 hours. 🙂
Gee, we are well served by the MSM.
BK
You got 999,999?
Congratulations.
Ms S will be so pleased.
42:58 is ungood.
OK, Ten millionth.
[42:58 is ungood.]
Haven’t reached plus ungood, then. Still hope.
[MJF is also facing a charge of assault. Does depression explain assault?]
Or excuse it? NO. Nor, for that matter, shop stealing. Particularly as it seems MJF was being treated for it; so it shouldn’t have been “a cry for help”. Unless her medical practitioner is most unusual, or one of the woopsies from the alternatives or a “Christian Healing” sect, then she’d have the phone number on speed dial of a mobile she promised to carry at all times.