Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has released two sets of poll results simultaneously, by way of confusing the hell out of everybody who doesn’t pay more attention than they ought to. One combines the results of the last two weekends’ face-to-face polling; the other is a phone poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday nights from a big sample of 1006. Furthermore, Morgan as always publishes separate two-party results using both respondent-allocated preferences and preferences as directed at the previous election, and these continue the recent trend of being highly divergent.

For mine, the most significant of the resulting four sets of figures is the previous-election two-party measure from the phone poll, as this has been conducted with the same methodology and from a similar sample size as Newspoll. Unfortunately, this particular result does not make sense to me. Whereas the primary vote figures are slightly better for the Coalition than this week’s Newspoll – 49 per cent against 29.5 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens, compared with 47 per cent, 29 per cent and 12 per cent – the previous-election two-party result is a fair bit worse: 54.5-45.5 compared with Newspoll’s 56-44. Applying the preference flows from the previous election (with 79 per cent of Greens preferences and 42 per cent of all other minor party and independent preferences going to Labor) produces a result of 57-43. That, as it happens, is the result Morgan has listed for its respondent-allocated measure – which is not to suggest they have run them the wrong way around.

The phone poll also comes with attitudinal questions, finding global warming scepticism at a plateau of 37 per cent after a steady increase over the previous three years; opinions on the carbon tax more or less unchanged since a month ago with support at 38 per cent and opposition at 58 per cent; and support for the Coalition’s policy of overturning the carbon tax down three points to 45 per cent with opposition up three to 48 per cent. There is also a flawed question on asylum seekers which invites respondents to choose between allowing boat arrivals to apply for immigration or subjecting them to the Malaysia solution, with no further options available. This finds 52 per cent appearing to support the Malaysia solution, contrary to last week’s Essential Research, but this is almost certainly because it’s the “tougher” of the only two alternatives presented.

The face-to-face poll shows essentially no change on the previous published result from the weekends of July 16-17 and July 23-24. Labor’s primary vote is steady on a relatively healthy 34.5 per cent, the Coalition is up half a point to 47.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 12 per cent. The respondent-allocated two-party result is unchanged on 56.5-43.5, while the previous-election result is up from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5. This time, the latter figure is exactly where I would expect it to be.

In other news, draft federal boundaries for South Australia were published today: see the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,111 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 or 53.5-46.5 or 57-43 or 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Cuppa I don’t think there is much doubt that the Fraser government was a disappointment and how much of that is down to Howard is a matter of opinion ]

    Disappointment is one way to put it, I suppose. Yet the Coalition have managed to build the commonly-held perception that they’re the party of superior economic management. Which defies reason and the evidence, given they presided over the Trifecta of Misery and the worst recession since the Great Depression. It’s amazing how a dedicated spin campaign – which we’ve seen from the Coalition and much of the chorus media over the years – can manipulate public perceptions in spite of unmistakeable evidence to the contrary.

    Spin – if only they did economic management as well as they do spin…

  2. Given that the Freemasons were a secret society until quite recently it is no wonder that you do not know many. Found my Grandfather’s membership in a vase when my mother died (My Grandfather died 15 years before I was born).
    I feel confident Abbott is NOT a freemason. Howard could well be.

    Until recently you can assume that Freemasons were all protestant so rules out most of the ALP (but not all).

  5. [HuffingtonPostHuffington Post

    BREAKING: Tim Pawlenty drops out of presidential race]
    LOL! Wasn’t T. Paw Glen’s saviour at one stage, and now he is gone basically with the starter’s gun not yet fired.

    My guess is he will endorse Romney. It is then Romney’s job to win the nomination for the establishment, against the nutters like Bachmann, Palin and Santorum

  7. [why wouldnt abbott be a freemason?]

    because it is a sin. The pope doesn’t hold with freemasonary and they feel the same way about the pappists. Abbott would be a Knight of the Southern Cross however.

  8. [LOL! Wasn’t T. Paw Glen’s saviour at one stage, and now he is gone basically with the starter’s gun not yet fired.]

    Not again 🙁 It’s like Rudy all over again in 2007 🙁

    All that’s left are Bible Bashers or Mormans.

    Stuff that!

  9. HOWARD’S FATHER
    ___________________
    Some have sought to find out whether Howard’s Dad was a member of the fascist New Guard in the 1930ies
    He would have been a likely candidate…probably a Mason, Protestant ,conservative and an Imperial loyalist and ex-soldier…very likely candidate,,and Howard surely subscribed to the same values !

  10. Abbott and Opus Dei
    ___________________
    Abbott would seem to me a very likely member for Opus Dei..
    .a sort of secret Catholic-neo fascists secret group,from Franco’s Spain..and both rich and powerful.
    It’s “chaplain” in Oz is Abbott’s “confessor” Cardinal Pell … well.well.well !
    and Abbott visits him weekly to make his confession….

  11. Gus

    Probably no true any more but the Masons were rather anti -catholic. There was a strong element of orangemen versus green tooThey have an attitude to “God” which is rather mystical and unlikely to appeal to a fundamentalist catholic such as Abbott.

    Visited the masonic museum on an open day in Sydney. Also went to a wedding in one hall and a big medical conference speech in another. Interesting symbols on the walls.

    There was I believe a parallel organisation within the Catholic Church called the knights of the Southern Cross. Does it still exist?

  12. This is really a shabby effort deblonay or whatever you are: I didnt like you before and every day I like you less and less. You disgust me. Im of the left . You are, what exactly?

    “some have sought” = ” on dit”. Sleazy and unaccountable. Murdoch style stuff.

    FFS. You give JW Howard a good name. His grandad and dad ex soldiers? How terrible of them. Faced up to frozen mud and Maxims like my grandad did?? Get back in your box little boy.

  13. Sustainable future

    I did not know that freemason membership is a sin.

    Best not to assume that all free masons were conservative or fascists. Rather think of it as protestant which often but not always equates with conservative politics.

    I think some leading members of Labor’s lefty may have been freemasons but I have only heard whispers.

  14. [You give JW Howard a good name. His grandad and dad ex soldiers? How terrible of them. Faced up to frozen mud and Maxims like my grandad did?? Get back in your box little boy.]

    wow

    your point?

  15. [Not again 🙁 It’s like Rudy all over again in 2007 🙁

    All that’s left are Bible Bashers or Mormans.

    Stuff that!]
    Romney is the Repubs best chance, but even he loses to Obama in polls, and that’s with 9% unemployment!

    That suggests to me that there is very high anti-Republican sentiment that will be hard for ANY Republican candidate to counteract.

    Keep in mind that in Presidential elections incumbency is a huge advantage. The Repubs will spend the next year tearing each other to shreds, mean while Obama is still the president.

  20. gusface, I thought that would have been obvious. Ex-soldier as a term of abuse? Ask Eric Blair. And as for deblonay, plenty of form

  21. MM and Deb

    tend to agree with MM that really what a person’s father did is not really relevant. It may be of interest in a biography of Howard but it is not really a matter by which to assess him.

    Abbott and Opus Dei IS more important. I do not like the idea of any MP having loyalty to a society which may prevent serving in Australia’s interests. (There are some creepy US prayer groups too which I see as a worry). The issue is which takes precedence. Obligations to some secret society or acting in the National good.

  23. hey Gus
    Al Doubble chicken burger – even better.
    btw did you see Max Gilles with his Amandatory detention show. The KFC wafted thru the auditorium. So poignant

  25. Cuppa that’s just political spin something all sides of politics employ. You can blame Rudd a great deal as he wasted much of his term trying to destroy the Howard/Costello economic record, something which was never going to work for many people, when he should have put emphasis on the Labor record during the Hawke/Keating period. In soccer they would call it an own goal. It is really difficult to destroy the economic record of a government who governed over 11 good years economically at the same time you are taking the country back into fiscal deficits.

  27. [i think debs point was what the profile of a new guard memberr was.

    i didnt see the slur]

    I think it might have been at the point where he said John Howard “surely subscribed to the same values” as “the fascist New Guard”.

  28. [2076

    gusface

    Posted Sunday, August 14, 2011 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    dareto

    i would suggest, that it is pertinenent

    some of howards actions certainly were of the extreme right bent
    ]

    and as they say Like Father, Like Son.

  29. Gus,
    We saw it in brissy and Swanny was in the crowd. A great show. Eddy Perfect on piano with Max dressed as Amandatory jumping up on to the grand piano with awkward skirts and flowery blouses. An absloute hoot.

  31. Being an ex soldier in 1940-60 when Howard was growing up would hardly be relevant – almost every male was including many a communist.

    True that some members of the permanent, peace time army had Fascist leanings.

  32. [@Jsus1 Jonno S
    Please don’t let us down @GhostWhoVotes RT @PhillipCoorey: Poll in tomorrow’s smh.]
    [@GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    @Jsus1 @AgnessMack I believe that it is ALP 42 (+3) L/NP 58 (-3) but can’t confirm. #Nielsen #auspol]

  36. Gus

    It is pretty unfair to assume kids follow their father’s views. Indeed I think one of Howard’s brothers is a left leaning economist.

  37. [Being an ex soldier in 1940-60 when Howard was growing up would hardly be relevant – almost every male was including many a communist.]

    dareto

    perhaps you do a tad researching into the new guard

  38. [It is pretty unfair to assume kids follow their father’s views. Indeed I think one of Howard’s brothers is a left leaning economist.]

    whether we are repulsed or attracted to what our parents teach us, is a moot point

    the issue is what values does one retain and one jettison?

    that is the measure

  39. [political spin something all sides of politics employ]

    Ah, but none do spin like the Liberals. (It helps to have a chorus media in on the act, too).

    They’ve managed to convince a great percentage of people to accept without question that they’re the party of “superior economic management”. Which, clearly they’re not, as they presided over the worst recession since the Great Depression, the Trifecta of Misery, and debt and deficit that climbed year after year under Howard’s Treasurership.

    In an even greater Through the Looking Glass feat, they’ve managed to make Howard’s name a by-word for good economic management! Howard, the most disastrous Treasurer in generations!!

    It takes true dedication to spin to be able to paint black as white – and have much of the population accept it as a matter of faith. Talk to Bushfire Bill some time about how the Liberals, though spin and with an obliging chorus media, have managed to convince people that the BER and Home Insulation Programs were “botched” and “debacles” – when in fact they were well-managed, with high fulfilment rates, and helped to saved Australia from horrendous times during the GFC. Spin again, has turned reality upside down in people’s minds…

  40. I honestly don’t think I can support any Republican for 2012.

    Thankfully the world’s going to end then so it wont really matter.

  41. [I honestly don’t think I can support any Republican for 2012.

    Thankfully the world’s going to end then so it wont really matter.]

    Yup

    the bush era
    [tax cuts for the rich]

    expire

    🙂

  45. daretotread @ 2086

    It is pretty unfair to assume kids follow their father’s views. Indeed I think one of Howard’s brothers is a left leaning economist.

    Even better, I believe Bob Howard is (or was) an ALP member.

  46. Gus

    Not sure I get your meaning regarding research. I was commenting about ex soldiers who in 1950 was practically all males with a very wide spectrum of political views.

    If Deblonay meant the peacetime standing army then it is possible he (JWH’s father) was a member or associate of the New Guard as they were well represented in the army. However I think that they were always seen as a bit of a joke and upper class twattery.

  47. [

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    by gordongraham

    #Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 28 (+2) L/NP 48 (-3) GRN 12 (+1) #auspol

    46 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Nieslen Preferred PM: Gillard 44% (+4), Abbott 47% (-4) #auspol

    21 seconds ago

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Nielsen Tony Abbott: Approval 43% (-4), Disapproval 52% (+4) #auspol

    1 minute ago

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Nielsen Julia Gillard: Approval 38% (+4), Disapproval 57% (-5) #auspol

    1 minute ago]

  48. Yeah, I do not know which years, who, what or when, except that The Rodent ruined this country. Damn his tiny evil soul.

  49. [

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Nielsen Queensland, Federal 2PP: ALP 35%, LNP 65% #auspol

    12 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Nielsen Victoria, Federal 2PP: ALP 52% L/NP 48% #auspol

    1 minute ago]

  50. [However I think that they were always seen as a bit of a joke and upper class twattery.]

    for a moment there, i thought you were going to add Cute and Cuddly

    🙁

    again i suggest you do a tad research into the new guard

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