Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. [they’re all out drowning their sorrows with what’s left in their accounts]

    The advantages of running out of my 3 score years and 10 next birthday -old government ‘Unit” superannuation schemes – “set for life” and cost-of-living adjusted.

  11. John Gorton
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Admiral of the Navy…you can’t beat that rank

    Anything… however superficial, however irrelevant to avoid discussion about policy.

    Train sets, atomic bombs, change of names, change of avatars..

    Just don’t mention policy…the libs have no policies.

  12. [Anything… however superficial, however irrelevant to avoid discussion about policy.

    Train sets, atomic bombs, change of names, change of avatars..

    Just don’t mention policy…the libs have no policies.]

    Explain how your last post is talking about policies??

    Hypocrite 😆 hilarious stuff dave old son 🙂 cheer up!

  13. [2059

    John Gorton

    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Frank it’s only going to get worse…What’s Swanny gonna do??? Blame the bananas again!
    ]

    we are in a better position than if KFC Joe was in charge 🙂

  15. evan14@2055

    At least Snedden died with a smile on his face…………..:D

    A sad tale..

    Involved a woman from AWA, whose job was to go around screwing the nuts off of old speakers.

    A sad bit of tail…

  18. Someone asked what Swan is going to do, what exactly do you mean?

    Nationalise the stock exchange?
    Shut it down?

    Really if and until there are negative flow on effects all that has happened is a market has functioned, what would you normally expect a treasurer to do about that?

  20. [2062

    John Gorton

    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Anything… however superficial, however irrelevant to avoid discussion about policy.

    Train sets, atomic bombs, change of names, change of avatars..

    Just don’t mention policy…the libs have no policies.

    Explain how your last post is talking about policies??

    Hypocrite hilarious stuff dave old son cheer up!
    ]
    Says this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL9ZleOXzQ0&feature=related

    Sums you up perfectly 🙂

  22. Surely Frank you can come up with a song that’s like someone who is a secret Tory or something 🙂 fits more to your meme than that 🙂

  24. John Gorton
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Explain how your last post is talking about policies??

    Err, my last post was at #2061 wherein I challenged you to discuss policy.

  30. [John Gorton
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Glen……how about Billy McMahon instead]

    Hey! If y’r going for sexually uninhibited Liberal PMs, how come you’ve missed that Sixties Chick-Magnet, Harry Holt?

  31. [Kelly O’Dwyer on Q&A Monday. Does life get any better!]

    Must tape that Duckey she’s our Kate Ellis 😆

    Gorton was a fighter pilot…Holto was just in the Army 🙂

  33. [OzPol Tragic

    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    John Gorton
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Glen……how about Billy McMahon instead

    Hey! If y’r going for sexually uninhibited Liberal PMs, how come you’ve missed that Sixties Chick-Magnet, Harry Holt?
    ]

    Who Ironically was played in a Documentry by Normie Rowe – whose “Conscription” was not exactly kosher.

    Speaking of Holt:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHLLwopaRQk

  34. [Drake what bout just Gorton then?]

    No Glen, you’re messing with my obsessive need for regularity and I demand you return both your name and gravatar to their place of origin.

  35. Full article on US employment figures from ABC.com

    [Hiring picked up slightly in July and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent, an optimistic sign after the worst day on Wall Street in nearly three years.

    The Labor Department says employers added 117,000 jobs last month. That’s an improvement from the past two months.

    The mild gain may ease investors’ concerns after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 500 points over concerns that the U.S. may be entering another recession.

    Still, the economy needs twice as many net jobs per month to rapidly reduce unemployment. The rate has topped 9 percent in every month except two since the recession officially ended in June 2009.

    The unemployment rate fell partly because some unemployed workers stopped looking for work. That means they are no longer counted as unemployed.]

  44. This is my contribution to political discussion tonight – the situation in Syria is terrible and I fear will get much worse. Lots of brave people dying for daring to speak out.

    We’re a lucky bunch us Australians.

  45. [Who Ironically was played in a Documentry by Normie Rowe – whose “Conscription” was not exactly kosher.]

    Frank,

    Is that the story about the policeman who pulled Normie over for speeding and during the course of the conversation said wtte “we have the same birthdate and I wasn’t called up”?

  46. [This is my contribution to political discussion tonight – the situation in Syria is terrible and I fear will get much worse. Lots of brave people dying for daring to speak out.

    We’re a lucky bunch us Australians.]

    Hear Hear!

    Drake the silence over Syria is deafening IMHO. For shame!

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