Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Thomas E. Dewey

    [Where would you place Winnie on the spectrum?

    Hard to place as he went back and forth between the Liberals and Tories…]
    Rubish . This shows exactly where he is on the spectrum.Right next to Herr Adolph it would seem.
    [Then as an MP he demanded a rolling programme of more conquests, based on his belief that “the Aryan stock is bound to triumph”. There seems to have been an odd cognitive dissonance in his view of the “natives”. In some of his private correspondence, he appears to really believe they are helpless children who will “willingly, naturally, gratefully include themselves within the golden circle of an ancient crown”. ]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/not-his-finest-hour-the-dark-side-of-winston-churchill-2118317.html

  5. I got a strange piece of info about one of my dogs. Lets just say a statement of one being seen with a person was abruptly changed to no, never seen no dogs, ever, honest. I can say no more except ‘bogans’.

  8. Especially disgusting is that the US-Spanish War was almost certainly the result of the campaign of a newspaper man one Randolph Hearst.

    Yes and the explosion aboard the USS Maine in Havana Harbour was probably a coal dust explosion, not sabotage or a military attack.

    But the Spanish invaded the PI even without a Randolph Hearst and stayed 400 years or so.

    The Munroe doctrine threatened the European powers from further occupation of the western hemisphere (specifically South America) but then did exactly what it itself wanted to do.

    And so will the Chinese, in their own way do, when it suits them.

  9. Thomas E. Dewey

    [Then poroti Dewey is an improvement in your eyes ]
    Well I reckon the Dewey Decimal was a bloody great thing so I suppose, yes I do 🙂 🙂

  12. For a Tory to post under the name of Richard M. Nixon takes a lot of chutzpah to stand up to ‘the jackal pack’ 😆

    I like it FS 😆

  14. The biggest problem with that trajectory, Glen is that you’d end up as GW Bush, and that’s reserved for GP.

  16. Thomas E. Dewey
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    I suppose I should go Dewey…McCarthy…Nixon 🙂 in that order FS

    Maybe the libs might have some policies one day too….

  17. dave

    The Thang is that what I spew about is that the uber menchen the super powers the hypers powers of the day dress up their naked aggresion as being all so moral and rightious. Be it in the name of the church,bringing of civilisation to damn natives or spreading the Mercan exceptionalism’s mission to spread freem and mocracy. Orrr indeed the mission that Vladimir had to spread the word.

  19. [Glen is that you’d end up as GW Bush, and that’s reserved for GP.]

    FS I cant do that since that is the one for our own ‘george’ on PB 😆

    Dave

    I could go as John Gorton 🙂

  21. Yeah, rummel, I will bite. I pity the unfed bridge-dweller.
    … in a surplus of misery, economic ruin, crumbling neglected infrastructure and negative social equity.

  23. rummel

    [my troll for the night

    arhhh Labor, where would we be with out them?……….. in surplus ]
    Promise ? 🙂 The comment is laying back soaking it up in the same jacuzzi as the “interest rates will always be lower under the Liberals” 🙂

  25. dave

    [poroti – I’m sure you have windmills a plenty to tilt at tonight ‘afore you sleep.]
    Sancho hand me my lance ! 🙂

  28. I have settled on Gorton in the end.

    He flew Spitfires.
    Supported Nuclear Power.
    Supported the nuclear weapons option.
    Hated Billy McMahon.
    Beat Gough Whitlam in an election and didnt turn into a lefty windbag afterward.
    Threw up on an Air Force plane before it took off as PM.
    Carried a pistol with him when he went to PNG.
    Was not a hardcore Conservative.

  34. Thomas E. Dewey
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    I have settled on Gorton in the end.

    Ho hum – that didn’t take long….

    dave
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 7:36 pm | Permalink

    He’ll chop and change again, just wait.

    Silly mustache BTW….

  35. There is clear runaway smiley faces on PB that may reach a tipping point and cause a rise agreements and end arguments as we know it.

  36. [I have settled on Gorton in the end.]

    Glen,

    Reinstall the Winston gravatar

    Return to your real name

    And we’ll pretend today never happened…

  41. Charlton

    Admiral of the Navy…you can’t beat that rank 🙂

    Puff…it is Poets Day today so no wonder it’s empty 😆

  43. As a goodly number of PBers are superannuants, I suspect you are right Puff, and they’re all out drowning their sorrows with what’s left in their accounts.

    I don’t expect too many will get drunk on it but.

  44. Just “done” an evening’s glance at OS papers.

    OMG, y’r really know the stock market’s tanking when the Guardian, bbc, prob others are live blogging the “rout”.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2011/aug/05/stock-market-crisis-ftse-usa-europe

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14418141

    BTW: Youse all leave poor Glen/ Winston/ Bismarck/ Talleyrand/ Titus Oates/ whatever alone, youse great big bullies!

    ‘Es ‘ard at work, contemplatin’ a GFC2 future with Abbott & JoHo as PM & Treasurer … and whether anyone will eat anywhere else but home & macDonalds. No wonder he’s going to pieces .. calling each piece a new name, like some weird SciFi horror-slasher ..

    Poor Glen will need Very Serious Defragging when it’s all over.

    PS: There, there, Glen. I’m sure Swannie can handle it all just as well again this time.

  48. [For a Tory to post under the name of Richard M. Nixon takes a lot of chutzpah to stand up to ‘the jackal pack’ ]

    Actually, both Noam Chomsky and Michael Moore have claimed that Nixon was the last “liberal” Prez, so the “jackal pack” might cut you some slack if you use the nick “Tricky Dick”. 😉

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