Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. [Scarpat

    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Who Ironically was played in a Documentry by Normie Rowe – whose “Conscription” was not exactly kosher.

    Frank,

    Is that the story about the policeman who pulled Normie over for speeding and during the course of the conversation said wtte “we have the same birthdate and I wasn’t called up”?
    ]
    Correct 🙂

    [Perhaps the greatest irony of all is that, years later, Normie discovered that his birthday was not among those drawn in the national service birthday lottery. Like Elvis, he believes was drafted because of who he was, presumably with the hope that his call-up would boost the public support for Australia’s war effort. His experiences left a deep impression on him, and since that time he has worked tirelessly on behalf of other Vietnam veterans. ]

    http://www.milesago.com/artists/rowe.htm

  4. [Sad as it is, I suspect a lot of people in Syria are dying now for not having spoken out earlier.]

    FS,

    unfortunately under the current and previous regimes, if they had spoken out earlier, they would have died earlier.

  6. feeney @ 1934:

    [charlton 1918

    If people on the ground are tiring of the LOTO’s negativity, why is he so close in personal ratings with the Prime Minister, and the Opposition are streets ahead of the Government in all opinion polls.

    I am absolutely at a loss to understand the Australian people.]

    On the rare occasions joe6pack posts he usually relays bad new from his travels. Today he reported positive vibes. His views are anecdotal but getting around Australia, as he does, his reports should not be discarded purely because of their subjectivity.

    I have no evidence to back me up but my opinion is that the polls aren’t as bad as they appear. At worst I think they’re in the range of 55/45 to 54/46.

    Now, these are substantial leads but Labor only has to claw back 5 or 4 points to be competitive, added to this is the phenomenon that polls narrow once an election is called, which shouldn’t be for at least two years.

    Abbott at the moment is firing on all six but I very doubt he can maintain that level of fire power over some 24 months.

    Also bear in mind that a lot can happen in day in politics, evidence the Tampa incident
    .
    Granted things can also go wrong in the Labor camp but it has the advantage insofar as it is the government & controls the purse strings.

    Abbott also has Turnbull white-anting him, whereas the PM appears to be safe, as Caucus knows her abilities, not the least being her ability to negotiate and her consensus style in Cabinet.

    Further, if all goes basically well with the carbon implementation, what other issue does Abbott have to rely on?

    Furthermore, in times of great turmoil such as another impending financial crisis (the US only narrowly avoided a downgrade of its credit rating), people stick with the incumbent & wouldn’t risk in my view Abbott and his crew on the Treasury Benches.

    These are just some of the reasons why I’m confident of a resurgent Labor Party.

    Your comment that you’re at ‘a loss to understand the Australian people’ is a valid point if one just measures everything by the current polls. But for the foregoing reasons I remain very optimistic.

  8. Gus,

    I’m ignorant as to the history or the dynamics behind what’s going on in Syria. From that naive perspective, it just seems like another mongrel dictator killing his countrymen.

    What is behind it all?

  11. drake

    one level is religion–shia sunni- with the house of saud stirring the pot, alongside iran doing its level best

    another level is geo politics- turkey israel and to a degree lebanon all playing for postion

    then you have the arab intrigues- the various revolutions happening or happened

    plus china a courting

    syria is not a homogenous people, there are some fringe sects

    it straddles to a degree the melting pot of western v middle eastern v persian

    the china take is the USSR redux

  12. [From that naive perspective, it just seems like another mongrel dictator killing his countrymen.]

    drake,

    your assessment is correct. Assad is another mongrel dictator killing his countrymen. He is trying to avoid being the next domino to fall in the Arab Spring.

  13. Looks like UK’s Dave Cameron’s done it again: he leaves the country, all hell breaks loose!

    [The Government is ”fully functioning” despite the Prime Minister, his deputy and the Chancellor all being on holiday as stock markets plunge around the globe, Foreign Secretary William Hague said today.]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8680820/Debt-crisis-live.html

    Last time it was the phone hacking scandal; July last year, the Pakistan floods and Whitby’s Swing Bridge’s closure.

  14. [He is trying to avoid being the next domino to fall in the Arab Spring.]

    he would have fallen alonga time ago

    he is still popular

    its the nw that dont like him

  17. in egypt there was a similar structure of croneyism

    in egypt the muslim brotherhod was suppressed

    in syria it is part of life

    assad wont be toppled by popular revolt

    you cant revolt against what you believe in

    🙁

  18. Gus, Scarps,

    Thanks for that. Sounds like they’re in big trouble. The poor buggers, I feel sorry for them.

    My only taste of a culture even remotely resembling an arab state was Dubai. I loved the place. The people were very friendly and there was this fantastic Lebanese restaurant near our hotel which was unbelievably cheap (a trivial thing to say, but it really was the best tucker).

    I think (but don’t really know) the middle east is full of good, everyday kind of people who are constantly being f$*^ed-over by forces too powerful to resist.

  19. gusface
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    you cant revolt against what you believe in

    Ahh – that must be why all those people are being SHOT by that prick !

  21. dave

    steady!

    what i am saying is that syria doesnt have the fundamentals of egypt

    assad isnt some rose

    but the realities should be acknowledged

    syria isnt ripe for revolt

  22. [T.E. Lawrence: So long as the Arabs fight tribe against tribe, so long will they be a little people, a silly people – greedy, barbarous, and cruel, as you are.]

    It’s sad but some things never change 🙁

    This tribalism has been around for centuries and it’s the same as it is in Libya as well and all throughout the Arab world.

  23. poroti @ 1925:

    [Whatever the political implications I was (as a Chemist) extremely impressed at his using dry ice as a way of slapping down Tones pig ignorant “weightless CO2? comment. I would have talked of moles of gsr and weight per liter which would have been boring batshit to joe blow. However using solid dry ice as a way of pointing out the fact CO2 has weight in a single sentence explained to all and sundry the idiocy of Tone’s weightless comment.]

    I can’t recall whether is was an off the cuff remark but the dry-ice falls on foot line cut to the bone in my view.

    Wherever Abbott may have been, he would’ve been seething. He knows Turnbull is coming after him & if ever there was a sign, that one remark would have so unsettled Abbott he would’ve immediately got on his bike to work off his angst.

    Although there are exceptions, professionals such as doctors, chemists, lawyers et al aren’t the best communicators, having a tendency to use their respective professionalese.

    Labor would do well to counter to Tories sloganeering with the of killer one liner used by Turnbull. As I’ve said before, the likes of Fred Daly and Jimmy Killen had this ability. Surely there’s someone in the Labor camp who could do likewise.

  24. gusface
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    syria isnt ripe for revolt

    Prehaps you should remind those who are opposing assard and putting their lives and that of their families on the line in order to do exactly that – revolt!

    Be it *ripe* or not.

    What is *ripe* is the chinese and the russians.

  25. [Labor would do well to counter to Tories sloganeering with the of killer one liner used by Turnbull. As I’ve said before, the likes of Fred Daly and Jimmy Killen had this ability. Surely there’s someone in the Labor camp who could do likewise.]

    unfortunately PJK is otherwise engaged…

  26. Thomas E. Dewey @ 1985:

    You have now assumed John Gorton’s identity.

    What’s going on in the Glen, Winston, Dewey & Gorton household?

  29. charlton
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    What’s going on in the Glen, Winston, Dewey & Gorton household?

    Discussing their *favourite colours* and star signs ?

  32. Frank, Gus, Scarps, Charlton and Dave,

    I’ve got a confession to make.

    I don’t think I’ve ever told anyone this before, and it’s not an easy thing to say.

    So here goes…

    I find Glen highly amusing. I don’t know why, I just do.

  34. Spealing of Dewey. Mellville Dewey, he of the dewey decimal classificatio system was a bit of a nutter, apparantly.

    Glen => Harold Holt.

    You know you want to Baby 😀

  35. gusface @ 2051:

    [charlton

    Ha

    here on PB we have a plethora of 6.5 stars generals]

    Given the navy is the senior service, my argument is that a 6 star admiral outranks a 6.5 star general.

    Plus Dewey died with his 6 stars whereas currently Poll Bludgers with 6.5 stars are subject to reversion in rank if they transgress.

  37. Frank for a moment there I thought you were going to show a clip from Some Mothers Do ‘Ave ‘Em 😆

    Night all!

    Go Dees!!!!

  39. drake@2132

    Frank, Gus, Scarps, Charlton and Dave,

    I’ve got a confession to make.

    I don’t think I’ve ever told anyone this before, and it’s not an easy thing to say.

    So here goes…

    I find Glen highly amusing. I don’t know why, I just do.

    Sorta like a circus clown you mean ?

    Sometimes I find morons *amusing*, but rarely highly amusing.

    Don’t believe I’ve ever told many people this before either. Please don’t repeat it, because its not an easy thing to say.

    Ta.

  42. People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

    Quick. Rush to the cliff, lemmings.

  46. drake @ 2132:

    [Frank, Gus, Scarps, Charlton and Dave,

    I’ve got a confession to make.

    I don’t think I’ve ever told anyone this before, and it’s not an easy thing to say.

    So here goes…

    I find Glen highly amusing. I don’t know why, I just do.]

    Don’t whatever you do feel guilty about it.

    It’s best to get these sort of things out in the open.

    Talking about a problem is a way of solving it.

  48. WASHINGTON—After months of heated negotiations and failed attempts to achieve any kind of consensus, President Obama turned 50 years old Thursday, drawing strong criticism from Republicans in Congress.

    🙂

  49. [Don’t whatever you do feel guilty about it.

    It’s best to get these sort of things out in the open.

    Talking about a problem is a way of solving it.]

    😆

    Thanks for the support guys. With your help, I’m sure I’ll find a way through.

  50. dave @ 2129:

    [charlton

    What’s going on in the Glen, Winston, Dewey & Gorton household?

    Discussing their *favourite colours* and star signs ?]

    It is true that there’s a fair bit of banter tonight.

    I’ve been accused by some of not have sense of humour but even I’m tired of being serious after a day of being fairly serious, although that might be a moot point for some.

    So why don’t you play along for a while?

Comments are closed.

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