Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.

UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …

UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:

In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.

The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.

UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.

This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,826 comments on “Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition”

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  2. I give up hard to pick between Glen and Thomas for lack of facts and distance to reality

    I’ll stop beating my head against the wall.

  4. Hang in there Gus. I keep figuring this country has to hit rock bottom to turn around. We are getting close. I have to say taking a few days away from it all (not planned) the bonus is it gives you back perspective, it might help.

  5. Hang in there Gus….

    Remember what Churchill said “when you’re going through hell keep going.”

    KBO Gus ‘Keep Buggering On!’

  7. Shouldn’t there be an investigation into SA police and why this hasn’t come to court in public much much sooner.

    Justice needs to be both fast and public.

    This doesn’t fit with what I learned in Criminal Procedure long long ago when WA still had a court of petty sessions. But maybe I’m just out of date.

  8. SK

    [If she is found guilty and is no longer allowed to hold her seat in the senate. How is it filled?]

    The SA Libs will be able to replace her with the next-dropkick-in-line and I can assure you that it is a long line here.

    Someone called Peter Salu would be limbering up as we speak.

  12. [I am dubbing it “hokeypokeygrocerygate”]

    Reminds me wasn’t this senator one who did a big quite insane speech / song / dance about the ETS? Clearly a liberal thought leader.

    She should clearly have murdered the lyrics to jailhouse rock to sprout her silly anti-ETS flatearth views in the Senate.

  13. [confessions
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:18 pm | Permalink
    Gus:

    Don’t be sad. Be happy!!]

    the only thing i am unhappy about is puffs little dogs.

    other than that the uk and usa thing is looking up, and its all happening a few from the dark side have their problems this week,

    it will take a little more time but it is slowly coming the lifting of evil in the world.

    i do hope the dogs are back soon

  16. Perhaps we’e seeing why the Libs have been so on edge lately. Malcolm going feral and Mary Jo in court – they must have known what was coming.

  17. Shows On. Louise Asher is the member of government that fell alseep in her office and missed a division in the house. I even think that the division may have been over one of her bills – but not 100% sure

  18. you may be surprised to know that tonight is the first time i have ever looked at the australian web page, and the last time

  19. you may be surprised to know that tonight is the first time i have ever looked at the australian web page, and the last time

  21. [Glen @ 8524:

    Charlton do you think they’ll parachute him into Parliament at the next election?]

    If you’re referring to Arthur, I don’t they’d be game, as he’d take over in no time.

    From watching him today, he has a presence about which one rarely finds in a Tory, no offence intended.

    He in fact reminded me a Harold Holt or a John Gorton, both of whom in my view were attractive to both sides of politics.

  22. Let’s not get too precious about some Lib Senator getting done-over for nicking stuff.

    There are lots of pollies and significant others with one character flaw or another that has led to run-ins with Mr. Plod over the years.

    Still, if the charges are found porven it’s rather hard to see how she will be able to resume her seat in the Senate. That fact won’t affect the balance of power there, however.

  27. charlton

    [Arthur Sinodinos won the NSW liberal presidency 512 to 50.

    Howard was fortunate to have him as his Chief of Staff.]

    I truly believe he was “Howard’s brain”. I remember in the later years JWK made several uncharacteristic mistakes and misreadings of the public. Not being a political tragic I had not known Sinodinas had left JWH’s staff. BUT when I read an article that mentioned when he left it coincided exactly with the start of JWH’s stumbles.

  35. On Murdoch Block.

    In Chrome. Go into Tools > Extensions > Murdoch Block > Options and tick the lot and Save. Bye, bye, Rupert!.

    There’s the equivalent in Firefox.

  37. [victoria
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:33 pm | Permalink
    smithe

    I just found MJ Fisher to be so damn self righteous. Talk about hypocrite!]

    Me too. But lets face it, she’s in a world of hurt now, what with her career disappearing and all.

    [ Dan Gulberry
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:31 pm | Permalink
    GOLD @AmosKeeto2 You leave some stuff in, you take some stuff out, you leave some stuff in and then go through the check out. @zombiemao]

    That’s wicked.

    On the up-side, maybe she can find work as a dance instructor.

    Look upon it as a form of rehabilitation.

  39. [I’m sure Minchin and Bernardi will come up with another cracker to replace the third rate idiot.]
    Mary Jo Fisher herself was a late replacement for another nominee that was selected but then had her nomination over turned. I can’t remember why.

  40. We all know if a Labor member of parliament had been caught/ charged/ whatever it would have been regarded as *indicative* of the government.

    I don’t know what the facts are with this lib senator, yet, but find it hard to believe the media didn’t know about it and that it wasn’t in the public interest for it to at least be reported. Not overdone, but reported.

    It was apparently in the public interest for a NSW Labor Ministers off duty lawful visit to a gay sex club to be splashed on our TV screens and in the papers, but shoplifting is not?

    Once again FFS

  41. [Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
    On Murdoch Block.

    In Chrome. Go into Tools > Extensions > Murdoch Block > Options and tick the lot and Save. Bye, bye, Rupert!.

    There’s the equivalent in Firefox.]

    but its back up you can see it

  42. [I found Mary Jo Fisher guilty of abject stupidity years ago.]

    From the quality of the ‘debates’ that go on in Parliament it seems that abject stupidity is the minimum entrance requirement.

  44. Drake

    I’ve been there in 2008. Just to see the 20m gun emplacements that would have been firing on angles across the beach was enough to give you chills.

    [From watching him today, he has a presence about which one rarely finds in a Tory, no offence intended.]

    Whilst I respect Menzies…I am a big fan of John Gorton, hence my dislike of Fraser!

    I wasnt thinking you were referring to Tories as whole just merely those in public life.

  49. no last time i looked before tea it was just a white screen, now i go to google and it back again.

    i dont think we have what you have in your software

    just an ordinary xp

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