Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.

UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …

UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:

In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.

The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.

UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.

This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,826 comments on “Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition”

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  1. Unlawfully taking away shop goods of a minor value and minor assault will not result in a goal term.

    More likely to be a bond of some $500 to be of good behaviour for a period of 6 months, with no conviction recorded.

    However if a person has a past of doing odd things like dancing in inappropriate places, perhaps the old insanity plea might be considered.

  2. [From the quality of the ‘debates’ that go on in Parliament it seems that abject stupidity is the minimum entrance requirement.]
    Yeah, but with the proviso that the average Senator is smarter than the average Rep.

  3. ducky will look later on tonight about how to do this,.

    so its optional, then first of all i thought it was something that was done from else where becauce we could not see the site

    can you explain it will look later tonight i will leave the browser in this spot.

  5. [Yeah, but with the proviso that the average Senator is smarter than the average Rep.]

    Is that ‘Rep’ as in Reprobate?

  6. I look forward to ‘The Australian’ doing an in-depth feature on how COL increases are driving desperate senators to crime, an editorial on how Ms Gillard should stop playing with Ms Fisher’s brain, plus an article on how the alleged perp was levitated through security against her will because she was being weightlessed by CO2. I assume ‘The Australian’ will be wanting to answer the following questions:

    Was she boot scootin’ or just plain scootin’?
    Was it the TimTams?
    Did the sky fall down?
    Was she on her way to visit her sick mother?
    Did it happen on ‘Sunday Bloody Sunday’?
    Was she in possession of a dead tuna?
    Did she have accomplices from the Murdoch family with her at the time?

  7. I blame Mary Jo Fisher’s alleged thievery on the carbon tax. She simply realised that peanut butter was going to increase by $45 a jar, so she wanted to steal it while it was still cheap so that she wouldn’t feel that guilty.

  10. Well, it’s interesting that her trial was delayed until AFTER the numbers in the Senate changed.

    Although I’m fearful of sounding like Tom the first, if the info about MJF had come out earlier, and she had been forced to resign, there would have been a period between that and the new Senator being endorsed.

    It’s up to the State Premier to do that…and the SA Premier is of what political persuasion?

    I know Conroy had to wait months before he could take his place in the Senate, because Kennett just didn’t get around to endorsing him.

    So if the info about MJF had come out earlier (say, January) or she had been tried earlier, we might have had a period in the Senate where ONE of Xenophon or Fielding had the balance of power.

  11. charlton
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

    Unlawfully taking away shop goods of a minor value and minor assault will not result in a goal term.

    More likely to be a bond of some $500 to be of good behaviour for a period of 6 months, with no conviction recorded.

    Its *piss or get off the pot time* then for murdochs media and the media in general.

    Murdoch’s code of conduct calls for even reporting of this.

    Lets see. Ha!

  12. Mary Joe Fisher
    _____________
    Is she the one who did the silly song and dance routine in the Senate some time agp

  15. [It was apparently in the public interest for a NSW Labor Ministers off duty lawful visit to a gay sex club to be splashed on our TV screens and in the papers, but shoplifting is not?

    Once again FFS]

    You have a point. That was a Murdoch assassination attempt and in something of a different category. As you rightly point-out, what he did was perfectly legal.

    What she’s alleged to have done is not.

    I’m not seeking to defend the woman, just suggesting that there are plenty of people on both sides who’ve had similar character defects and conduct exposed over the years.

  16. [No mention on Mary Joe’s alleged five fingered discountingb on their ABC.

    Had it been a Labor Senator…..]

    Scott would’ve performed a civilian arrest

  17. Fisher will have her hearing on the 1st Sept. Is it likely or unlikely she’ll be sentenced before the Senate resumes on the 12th Sept after its August sitting?

  18. hello i am sorry folks but everyone I have spoken to from albury-dubbo-rocky-mackay-dingo and maryborough same just about message now. Julia is stuffed and so is labor for a while.Rant about Abbot & Murdoch but in reality no one cares about pommie news and the new coal ads are cutting thru like the work choices ads did.
    Abott will be pm and I will be sad but survive

  21. Tom Watson refers James Murdoch’s lies to the police.

    I’ve been told that the Murdoch’s never leave a paper trail; no emails, no letters, nothing.

    [Labour MP Tom Watson says he will ask the police to investigate evidence given by News International chairman James Murdoch after it was called into question by two former executives.

    Mr Murdoch told the culture committee he had not been “aware” of an email suggesting the practice went wider than a “rogue” News of the World reporter.

    But ex-NoW editor Colin Myler and legal manager Tom Crone said they told him.]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14245922

  22. Aside from the fact that up until now I’ve never heard of Mary Jo … What is it with the South Australian Liberal Party…

    They’re either bleeding heart lefties like Pyne or hard right nutjobs like Cori…

  25. z

    [It’s up to the State Premier to do that…and the SA Premier is of what political persuasion?]

    We’re really not sure anymore.

  26. [latikambourke Lib Senator Mary Jo Fisher says relating to an ‘incident on 15 December 2010, the SA police charged me on two matters.’
    1 minute ago]

  28. [latikambourke Senator Mary Jo Fisher ‘I reject the charges and will vigorously defend them. ‘
    1 minute ago]

  29. Leon Byner got his phd in science at the same place Laird Monkton got his THE ACME TRADING COMPANY same place as WILE>E>COYOTE

  32. Harry “Snapper” Organs

    [Greetings, bludgers. Well, aren’t the Malcolm Manouvres interesting?]

    No not interesting but a tragic comment on public discourse as she is in Straya today. Did the meeja bother AT ALL with the actual content and subtance of what he said and it’s validity ? NFW, facts and truth are boring and irrelavent it was all about flogging the Abbott Turnbull horse race. Nothing the drones like more than a “leadership challenge” beat up.

  33. So Abbott loses another day of swanning around scaring people because he’ll have to deal with this Fisher distraction.

    🙂

  35. [

    CitizenWatcherIrate Citizen

    by CuppaT2

    #abcnews Why does abc24 advertise free for mining co’s hr x hr 7 days awk? “Will the mining tax be downfall of PM”

    18 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  37. smithe
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    You have a point. That was a Murdoch assassination attempt and in something of a different category. As you rightly point-out, what he did was perfectly legal.

    What she’s alleged to have done is not.

    I’m not seeking to defend the woman, just suggesting that there are plenty of people on both sides who’ve had similar character defects and conduct exposed over the years.

    The farqing *point* is it defies belief that this wasn’t *known* to the media well before now. The *point* is it hasn’t been exposed until now.

    The *point* is if this had been on the labor side, labor would have been thumped all over the place – for months.

    Thats the *point*.

  38. Contrarians tonight was throwing shoes at the TV stuff.

    How dare Julia Gillard suggest that News Ltd be investigated? Or even just asked a few questions along the lines of “Have you now or in the past ever done anything that might be just a little bit dodgy?”

    All the journos – even the bleeding heart left of centre one – agreed that this was an unprovoked and scurrilous attack by the PM.

    No mention of the fact that she said that “Australians” would be wondering if News Ltd Australia was somehow tainted by the same brush that the rest of the organisation is; it was simply portrayed by all the journos as an outright attack by the PM on News Ltd.

    PVO (after doing the joking ‘of course I’m employed by them’ disclaimer) said it showed how desperate she was, trying to deflect scrutiny etc etc.

    If all our journos are pure as the driven snow, and know it, then what have they got to fear?

    How would a Parliamentary enquiry be a waste of time, if it vindicated our press and assured everyone that they had always adhered to the highest journalistic standards?

    Even more worryingly, how would any information about any journalistic wrongdoings ever come to light in this country, when it is so evident that no journalist appears to even want to contemplate that perhaps another journalist might have even had a wrong thought, let alone committed a wrong action?

    If we’re relying on them to investigate themselves, we’d never find out.

    So – although I will, of course, accept their assurance that every journalist, every editor, every news outlet in Australia is as pure as the driven – if one of them weren’t, I’m worried that none of them would ever admit it.

  39. [victoria
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    J6P

    Hope all is well. I reckon we will probably have a coalition govt in 2013, but Abbott wont be the PM0]

    All is well but the Libs will stick with the idiot because he is winning and to change now would do what labor did . which must now come down to one of the biggest political mistakes in aus. history.

  42. [Aside from the fact that up until now I’ve never heard of Mary Jo … What is it with the South Australian Liberal Party…

    They’re either bleeding heart lefties like Pyne or hard right nutjobs like Cori]
    Pyne is far from a bleeding heart lefty, he is opposed to stem cell research and IVF and marriage for same sex couples.

    He is a typical Liberal who thinks discrimination is OK.

  43. [ am sorry folks but everyone I have spoken to from albury-dubbo-rocky-mackay-dingo and maryborough same just about message now. Julia is stuffed and so is labor for a while.Rant about Abbot & Murdoch but in reality no one cares]

    must be different people where you have been just the opposite in this end of the world

    of course it could be who we mix with, me included. but i do speak to stranger
    but i suppoe you mix with truckies and other people in the trade
    well if i happens i hope you and them cop workchoices very very badly and it will serve them all right
    it you think differently it up to YOU to insturct people suppose you didn bother though the last sentance gave that away wtte you will get by

    but will your children..

  44. [victoria
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:05 pm | Permalink
    my say

    I am upbeat, especially as Turnbull has spoken up on climate science and has put Abbott on the spot]

    well why agree with joe 6 pac then

  45. Boerwar

    [Ms Fisher is going to vigorously defend the charges.]

    Would that be the same “vigorous defence” she used in the supermarket carpark ? 🙂

  47. [8643 zoomster
    Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
    Contrarians tonight was throwing shoes at the TV stuff.]

    is that on as murdoch station i dont know anything about pay tv

  48. [Pyne is far from a bleeding heart lefty, he is opposed to stem cell research and IVF and marriage for same sex couples.]

    Bleeding heart compared to Cori though 😀

Comments are closed.

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