GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
[PVO (after doing the joking ‘of course I’m employed by them’ disclaimer) said it showed how desperate she was, trying to deflect scrutiny etc etc.]
Hilarious! For the last 3 days commentators have been telling the PM to stop talking about the carbon price and “broaden the discussion”.
They can’t keep track of what they say from one day to the next.
Joe 6 pac how many did you speak to to do a poll like that
it has to be at least 1thousand people seriously 500 people or 6 people
[Hilarious! For the last 3 days commentators have been telling the PM to stop talking about the carbon price and “broaden the discussion”.
They can’t keep track of what they say from one day to the next]
i would bet my next chocolate biscuit that the liberals have internal pollingthat the PM is getting the message out you only have to look at essential on monday and wednesday
O and i just thought about joe and had a look at the map thats all liberal seats up there hardly a labor seat in site
nuff said as frank would say.
The West has an hilarious photo of Fisher.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/9898542/sa-liberal-senator-faces-criminal-charges/
i feel a bit sorry for her after all she is a human being, you know if she was labor would we say things probably not., she may have an illness.
Dio
[I’ve been told that the Murdoch’s never leave a paper trail; no emails, no letters, nothing.]
One would reasonably assume that Mr Taylor would have a copy of a contract that has a confidentiality clause in it, whereby Jimmy would be perverting the course of justice, No?
[The West Bromwich East MP added: “More importantly it shows he not only failed to report a crime to the police but because there was a confidentiality clause involved in the settlement it means that he bought the silence of Gordon Taylor and that could mean he is facing investigation for perverting the course of justice.”]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14245922
The beak may not be interested in the hokey bit, but as for pokey, well …
*In the interests of the good order and standing of the senate* the conservatives and the media, particularly the howling jackals of *so called* talk radio would also call on any labor person so charged to stand aside pending conclusion of this matter – at least.
Lets see what we hear of this in the coming days.
Equal treatment. That is all that should happen.
poroti
As far as I know Ms Fisher is definitely guilty of one crime against humanity – doing the hokey pokey in the senate.
The remaining charges are just that.
I do remind Laboratarians that the Ms Dallas Hayden was in strife for much same thing (sans the alleged biffo) and that shoplifting can, at times, be a sign of mental ill-health.
[the new coal ads are cutting thru like the work choices ads did]
Except they cannot cut through like the work choices ads did, because the workchoices adds worked because what they said was true and most of Australia knew it.
Most of Australia may well be buying a very stupid hollow set of lies (I honestly didn’t think we were collectively that totally dumb but then I didn’t think the US was stupid enough to elect Bush II the second time and they were and look how they are paying for it now), the question is whether or not the hollow lies can be sustained until the election. Maybe they can.
here we go
[latikambourke It’s understood Liberal Senator Mary Jo Fisher is suffering depression; around 12 months ago she approached Andrew Robb for help.
5 minutes ago]
I sent this e-mail to Shaun Carney and received a response.
[Shaun,
Thankyou for replying in such detail re ‘no laughs’. You make some good points, although I must say I believe women behave differently to men in such situations and if they behave like a man the voters tend to look down on this.
Can you please direct me to your article fully arguing and explaining that the PM “did not lie about putting a price on carbon, which is not in reality a tax”?
Are you going to hold Abbott accountable at any stage for the blatant lies and contradictions which obviously the political journalists are aware of but many fail to mention in any detail (if Laurie Oakes knows about them you all do)? Given that Abbott may very well in 2 years be our PM or earlier surely such scrutiny by the press is needed.
Sincerely,
Gary]
Surprisingly this is the response.
[Gary,
You’re big on asking questions, so I’ll ask a few of my own.
On Grocery Watch, you implied that I had made an error when I wrote that the Rudd government had established it. I shared my recollection of its passage and asked if I was wrong. No answer from you, Gary. Was I wrong? Or were you wrong? How come no follow-up on that, Gary? I ask again: can you advise?
You have also written in two successive emails that I have made good points but have not bothered to nominate them. What were these points, Gary? Why do you have no interest in engaging on points of agreement, which is an important element in mature discussion, and want to do nothing but pick holes and find fault, Gary?
You were the one who made the joke about waiting around for me to get something right. Let’s both remember that there’s such a thing as a spam filter.
Shaun Carney]
One has to ask were the questions too hard to answer? (Shite, another question).
[dave @ 8614:
Its *piss or get off the pot time* then for murdochs media and the media in general.
Murdoch’s code of conduct calls for even reporting of this.
Lets see. Ha!]
The first time I heard of these matters was on this site & only recently. Thus I don’t know what your Murdoch reference is about.
I’d like to make few points though:
1. They are quite minor charges;
2. She’s defending them & the press is aware of the sub judice rule; and
3. Once she’s had her day in court, I think matters will be fully reported on.
One more point, even worse case and she had to leave the Senate, she’d have to be replaced by another Tory, so I don’t think there are any great political implications involved; as opposed to the as yet named SA politician charged with child pornography offences.
AMANDA SHALALALALLALALALALALALLALALALLALALALALALAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
[my say
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
Joe 6 pac how many did you speak to to do a poll like that
it has to be at least 1thousand people seriously 500 people or 6 people]
I talk to a lot of people from every part of Aus, regular except WA> or Tas. other than you and I an sorry again mysay but at the moment to be honest labor will lose the next election.
[She didn’t look too depressed when she danced her way into history.]
Any lawyers around? Is “I suffer depression, therefore I steal things.” a valid legal defense?
yes had a look at greens blog and joe 6 pac travlled all the way in liberal terrirory.
well what would expect then
[Joe6pack
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:18 pm | Permalink
my say
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
Joe 6 pac how many did you speak to to do a poll like that
it has to be at least 1thousand people seriously 500 people or 6 people
I talk to a lot of people from every part of Aus, regular except WA> or Tas. other than you and I an sorry again mysay but at the moment to be honest labor will lose the next election.
]
What people say and how they will vote are two different things.
[ zoomster
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:50 pm | Permalink
Well, it’s interesting that her trial was delayed until AFTER the numbers in the Senate changed.]
Yes. That is interesting. Normally minor charges like this are dealt with on the first return date or pretty soon thereafter with a quick plea and sentence (with someone in the public eye, usually late in the day, when everyone else has buggered-off).
Unless it’s a plea of not guilty, in which case it can take some months to get a hearing date when all witnesses are available.
If it”s a PNG, what’s her defence? I intended to pay?
What was the date of the alleged offence, anyway?
Gary
I cant believe the response by Carney. Why is he so touchy?
[but at the moment to be honest labor will lose the next election.]
No-one is disputing the ATM part. It’s whether it will happen in 2 years or not that’s in dispute.
[ShowsOn
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:19 pm | Permalink
She didn’t look too depressed when she danced her way into history.
Any lawyers around? Is “I suffer depression, therefore I steal things.” a valid legal defense?
]
A’Vocato Fulvio may wish to answer this 🙂
Those news limited serfs are precious little princesses
[because the workchoices adds worked because what they said was true]
Now who is telling a proky Paul…
The most effective ad with the mother and kids would never have happened in real life and she’d have cause for unfair dismissal even under Workchoices itself.
[Gary
I cant believe the response by Carney. Why is he so touchy?]
Very good question. They don’t mind putting the hard questions to politicians but when challenged themselves by the public they can’t take it, it seems.
[it has to be at least 1thousand people seriously 500 people or 6 people
I talk to a lot of people from every part of Aus, regular except WA> or Tas. other than you and I an sorry again mysay but at the moment to be honest labor will lose the next election.]
two years is a long time in politics of your that game to predict that then your a better man than me gungda din.
i just told you not in this end of the world check anthony greens map i just did you where in liberal territory and mixing with ute people sorry to be blunt.
and we never win elections in nsw and qld you forget they are not the only people in aust,
so dont put all your eggs in one basket,. you are after all in the red neck states
ilike the deep south of the usa where there are hardly any democrates.
sorry joe your wrong
I think J6P is on the money. The polls are showing that if an election were to be held this weekend Labor would be slaughtered.
It is not suprising that J6P’s direct experience reflects this.
Boerwar
[poroti
As far as I know Ms Fisher is definitely guilty of one crime against humanity – doing the hokey pokey in the senate……. that shoplifting can, at times, be a sign of mental ill-health.]
Reading the story I concluded that there just has to be more to it. She could definitely not be as stupid as that to try and steal stuff the way she did. Not to mention that the $ values involved makes such actions pretty pointless. So knowing no more than what I have read she either a) Was doing acactly as she said or b) She has issues. As for the grapple with the security guard the nature of many “in the industry” from my experiences makes it entirely possible she was innocent there. But we shall see what happens where it is decided where it should be, in the courts of law.
o but before i go joe you sound so happy about definatley NOT a swining voter like you claim
The Murdoch media so called *Code of Conduct*
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/pdfs/NewsLimited_ProfessionalCoC.pdf
I realise that. That is not the point as I have point out above in various posts.
Gary:
Sounds like you’ve hit a nerve with Carney.
[WeWantPaul
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:14 pm | Permalink
the new coal ads are cutting thru like the work choices ads did
Except they cannot cut through like the work choices ads did, because the workchoices adds worked because what they said was true and most of Australia knew it.
Most of Australia may well be buying a very stupid hollow set of lies (I honestly didn’t think we were collectively that totally dumb but then I didn’t think the US was stupid enough to elect Bush II the second time and they were and look how they are paying for it now), the question is whether or not the hollow lies can be sustained until the election. Maybe they can.]
They are working
On social occassions, I have often pretended to acquiesse when unknown aggressive agenda driven idealogues have attempted to ear bash me with their prognostications, only to shake my head when they have moved on.
It’s a human defense mechanism.
poroti
Agreed.
[boerwar thats exactly what i mean.
who would of thought murdoch would be in so much troubel just three weeks ago.
two years is a life time,.
[ ShowsOn
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:19 pm | Permalink
She didn’t look too depressed when she danced her way into history.
Any lawyers around? Is “I suffer depression, therefore I steal things.” a valid legal defense?
A’Vocato Fulvio may wish to answer this 🙂 ]
I’m pretty sure it is the beginning not of a legal defense but of a political one.
I think the legal battle is probably pretty minor and she’ll probably get a slap on the wrist and spent conviction / no conviction order, if she doesn’t get of completely (which is the whole presumption of innocent that is applied to non-labor people).
It is the political battle that matters and libs have always had a very generous humanitarian position of fair, just and lenient treatment of desperate offenders, which no doubt she’ll wish to see applied to herself, in the event she is convicted.
I must say the driving away bit, if it is true, and entered into evidence would look very bad.
Maybe she can run the ‘I must be stupid I have Tony as my leader and don’t believe in climate change’ defence which is likely to be very successful if the magistrate has half a brain.
[8684
Boerwar
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
I think J6P is on the money. The polls are showing that if an election were to be held this weekend Labor would be slaughtered.
It is not suprising that J6P’s direct experience reflects this.
]
But guess what – it isn’t 🙂
Now about next week’s Lotyto numbers 🙂
[poroti @ 8580:
charlton
Arthur Sinodinos won the NSW liberal presidency 512 to 50.
Howard was fortunate to have him as his Chief of Staff.
I truly believe he was “Howard’s brain”. I remember in the later years JWK made several uncharacteristic mistakes and misreadings of the public. Not being a political tragic I had not known Sinodinas had left JWH’s staff. BUT when I read an article that mentioned when he left it coincided exactly with the start of JWH’s stumbles.]
I just looked him up on wiki & he has a very short entry indeed. I think he’s more happy with being in the shadows.
I see he became Howard’s C of S in ’97 and left in ’96, dates which would compliment your analysis.
[A’Vocato Fulvio may wish to answer this :-)]
Is he your consigliere?
[8690 Fulvio Sammut
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 8:25 pm | Permalink
On social occassions, I have often pretended to acquiesse when unknown aggressive agenda driven idealogues have attempted to ear bash me with their prognostications, only to shake my head when they have moved on.
It’s a human defense mechanism.]
yes true, and if you talk to an aggressive person you just nod your head, dont u.
ShowsOn,
What’s your thing about cute little Amanda?
[Gary:
Sounds like you’ve hit a nerve with Carney.]
Absolutely. Next thing is to draft out some kind of response.
]But guess what – it isn’t
Now about next week’s Lotyto numbers ]
thanks frank that will be my standard answer
I have no doubt that what Joe 6 pac is hearing is real at the moment. I stress at the moment.
However, I think comparing the anti CC adds with the anti Workchoices adds is I think a bit like comparing apples and oranges.
People lived Workchoices but are yet to live Carbon pollution pricing. That is the difference and I think is very important.
Coal mines will not close across the country, thousands of jobs will not be lost and the industry will grow by approx 45% over time.
THe big advantage to the government is the 15-16 months the punters will live the pricing. Will it help the government enough ? Only time will tell but I have a very positive attitude.
In any election the bottom line is how well the voters are travelling in the pocket. At the next election they will be travelling very well.
[o but before i go joe you sound so happy about definatley NOT a swining voter like you claim]
Mysay sorry u feel like that bot I am giving a honest assessment]
Hey Frank, I ai’nt in the business of giving free advice, especially to the likes of the good senator.
[ Gaffhook
Posted Friday, July 22, 2011 at 7:53 pm | Permalink
she was a barrister before she went in to politics as well.]
There goes the practising certificate.
[The most effective ad ]
In your ever knowing opinion … as is the rest of your opinion, which you are entitled to, but opinion is different to fact and I’m not lying.
How did wages for retail sector workers go under workchoices.
[It’s just a jump to the left,
And a step to the Right!
Put the goods in your bag,
And run for your Li-ii-iii-iife!]
From a commenter elsewhere. 😆
ShowsOn, don’t mess with the Godfather.