Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Yet more polling woe for Labor, with the latest Essential Research poll – which being a two-week rolling average is less prone to variability than other polls – putting the Coalition lead at a new high of 56-44. The primary votes are 49 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). We also have the frankly bizarre finding that perceptions on the economy have tanked in the two months since the budget, with “right direction” down eight to 37 per cent and “wrong direction” up 14 to 43 per cent. The Liberal Party has a telling lead of 43 per cent to 26 per cent on the question on “best party at handling economy”. On the question of same-sex marriage, 54 per cent are in favour and 35 per cent opposed: these results are more favourable than when the question was last asked in May, but basically the same as the previous result from November last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,693 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. charlton
    .
    [If he stays with Murdoch he will in my view be tarnished forever.

    If he values his integrity he should ship out]
    .
    I do not agree. Mega George has indeed shown integrity and provides alot of thought provoking articles. As long as he continues to show such characteristics then he will continue to be followed and read by many. Crikey, does any think Rupes token lefty Phillip Adams is any less of a lefty because he write for the OO ? So in a world of shrinking options for journos I’ll judge them by their writing rather than who they are writing for.

  4. Watching and listening to Cameron I can see a great deal of the Rodent Howard in his answers and his body language…shifty, rat cunning, evasive, smart all Howard.

  5. [So now ABC Sydney TV news is running a piece on how the Euro ETS has never worked and how it’s prone to corruption and rorting.]
    Yes, they have played that story several times today, but on the other hand, they ran a 10 – 15 minute interview with an ANU economist saying that the Australian ETS will be one of the best in the world.

  6. Cameron’s brushing off Qs that suggest Coulson must have known. “We don’t know who at News International knew what about what.

  8. boerwar, did bluey count Abbott’s attempt to get TV time immediately afte JG;s address to the nation as a “right in reply” as a stunt? the networks appear to have

  9. david

    I have not seen Cameron, but some are admiring his ways!

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 13 minutes ago
    [So different watching an under pressure David Cameron to an under pressure Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd/Tony Abbott.]

  10. [So in a world of shrinking options for journos I’ll judge them by their writing rather than who they are writing for.]
    I agree. It is easier painting everyone with the same brush rather than looking at what they write.

    Look at Peter van Onselen over the last few weeks, he has become increasingly scathing of Abbott’s leadership, even though he writes for News Ltd and is a former Liberal staffer.

  11. [Mega George has indeed shown integrity and provides alot of thought provoking articles. As long as he continues to show such characteristics then he will continue to be followed and read by many. ]

    Yes, but not at News.

    If I’ve ever seen anyone angling for “the package”, it’s George Megalogenis. He’s a nice, thoughtful, quiet Greek boy who has an unfortunate tendency to check facts before he writes.

    Anathema to News.

    NOT a team player, and I suspect he’ll be gotten rid of soon, for just that reason.

    God love him, he’s a gem. When the rest are just so much cannon fodder, George M. will shine like a beacon.

    A man of True Grit and decency.

  12. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @latikambourke He looks like a worried man #NOTW
    3 minutes ago

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    The LIVEfeed to Cameron’s Presser keeps on dropping out. it’s been hacked #NOTW
    7 seconds ago

  13. [Cameron’s brushing off Qs that suggest Coulson must have known. “We don’t know who at News International knew what about what.]

    It’s all very smelly – I wonder how many glasses of water he’s going to get through?

  14. [I do not agree. Mega George has indeed shown integrity and provides alot of thought provoking articles. ]

    He provides almost no articles, thought provoking or otherwise. He has been off writing a book for the best part of the year. He writes drivel that he tries to make less drivelly with some numbers he extrapolates from the ABS.

  15. Do-nothings have a established double-jeopardy play*:

    (1) Destroy international cooperation on AGW
    (2) Work against action in individual jurisdictions on the basis that it would bring with it first mover penalties.

    Simple and effective, this approach has more or less created a certainty that we will go through 400 ppm CO2.

    Regardless of the real impact of the Australian carbon price package, it represents a profound international threat to this simple Do-nothing game plan.

    *I acknowledge that around and within this framework there is a long history of tactics that do not bear examination in the full light of day.

  16. [victoria
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

    david

    I have not seen Cameron, but some are admiring his ways!

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 13 minutes ago

    So different watching an under pressure David Cameron to an under pressure Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd/Tony Abbott.]

    vic I wonder if she meant its good to see hard questioning from the Brit jurnos as opposed to her idiot collegues here.

  17. [LATIKAMBOURKE | 13 minutes ago

    So different watching an under pressure David Cameron to an under pressure Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd/Tony Abbott.]

    Latika, you’ve picked the wrong side. You don’t know it yet, but you’ll get the drift as time goes by.

    You had the “PM JG” calling you by name, giving you opportunities your experience didn’t deserve.

    And you blew it darlin’.

    Nice legs and a pretty face are OK in the Manuka cafes and restaurants, but careers are forever.

    Look and learn, Latika.

  18. [Latika, you’ve picked the wrong side. You don’t know it yet, but you’ll get the drift as time goes by.

    You had the “PM JG” calling you by name, giving you opportunities your experience didn’t deserve.

    And you blew it darlin’.

    Nice legs and a pretty face are OK in the Manuka cafes and restaurants, but careers are forever.

    Look and learn, Latika.]

    BB, 😆 you beauty!

  19. What’s all this crap on the ABC news tonight with some talking head saying the ETS in Europe has done nothing to lower the level of carbon emissions. How convenient to come up with that just as the government gets all its ducks in line for Sunday.

  20. sprocket

    [boerwar, did bluey count Abbott’s attempt to get TV time immediately afte JG;s address to the nation as a “right in reply” as a stunt? the networks appear to have]

    Through Bludger Stunt Watch, Bluey is trying to foster an improvement in the quality of public debate about policy, program and regulatory issues. Bluey reckons that collating the stunt crap and keeping it permanently available helps make the stunts look ridiculous.

    In this context, it seems reasonable to Bluey for Mr Abbott to be given equal time. Of course if Mr Abbott does his reply dressed as a defunct coal mine, then all bets are off.

  24. [BB and moi aint going nowhere]

    Gus gets top billing. He’s got the guts to go on ohmike.

    Gus, take ’em on!

    I’m right behind you!

  26. I do hope that BK does not read BB’s post.

    BK is already showing serious signs of drift from his flame in the Chamber.

  27. BB for you:

    [Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @latikambourke So different watching an under pressure David Cameron with a press corp that asks REAL and fearless question #auspol.
    20 seconds ago ]

  28. [Nice legs and a pretty face are OK in the Manuka cafes and restaurants, but careers are forever.

    Look and learn, Latika.]
    This is an astonishingly sexist thing to write. Your criticisms of Bourke would be more persuasive if you stuck to presenting specific criticism of what she writes.

  30. BB,

    I hope before I shuffle of this mortal, I get to sit down and share a few drinks and a bloody long political conversation! 😀 😈

  32. They have him backed right into a corner regarding Coulson.

    His association with Coulson and his dinner parties with Reebok puts him in a very invidious position and no matter how much he makes excuses about Coulson and Reebok he is now tarnished goods.

    Every time a question comes up in parliament etc about media he will be asked, are you sure about that, isn’t your judgement a bit suss in that department.

    I still say Cameron=gone.

    On the other hand if it was Abbott copping this grilling he would be punching everything that moved near him.

    Latika is a bit up herself about the ability of Julia and Kevin to handle difficult questions considering she never asks questions, especially of her man Toxic.

  33. To actually suggest that “Well, 2 years is ages away… it will probably turn around” is so ludicrous.

    Couple of things:

    a) Nothing will change in the media. Absolutely nothing. It took ridiculously popular polling from Labor in the lead up to the 2007 election for the MSM to even slightly change tack and promote Labor. It was only when Howard was absolutely terminal that they jumped ship. Stop whinging about the media. Stop patrolling The Australian for biased journalism. We know it’s biased, they know it’s biased. It doesn’t change votes. It’s readership is 90% Liberal, 10% lurking Laborites who read it to find the next biased article.

    b) We aren’t in Opposition anymore. We are the GOVERNMENT. When a Government is almost terminal, with not even a two seat buffer, it will very likely not be re-elected. Gillard is not Howard, and – electorally – 2011 Labor is not 1998 Coalition.

    We need Abbott to be heard swearing at a pensioner or being blatantly racist in public for anything to change.

  34. [He provides almost no articles, thought provoking or otherwise. He has been off writing a book for the best part of the year. He writes drivel that he tries to make less drivelly with some numbers he extrapolates from the ABS.]
    WTF? What a load of nonsense.

  35. a great quote in the guardian:

    [“This is just like the last days in the bunker,” said Brian Cathcart, professor of journalism at Kingston University. “Their behaviour is completely unpredictable. To close down a 168-year-old newspaper rather than sack Brooks is simply extraordinary. It’s impossible to think of any rationale.”]

  38. On Monday La Gratten and co were going on and on about why the government had taken the tender away from Kevins department and given it to Conroy. They were all upset about the lack of transparency and lack of explanation..

    They all seem rather quiet now the NOTW issue is hitting the fan. Perhaps Conroy having responsibility for regulation of the industry etc may have something to do with it ? Wonder if they will take it up again or just hide their ignorance ?

    Also I think anyone who believes the polls are going to turn around anytime soon should go and hibinate for several months. Otherwise every poll that comes out on a weekly basis showing big leads to the opp is going to cause damage. We are going to get the constant cut and paste analysis of why the PM should go, why labor is terminal, when are Shorten or Combet going to challenge and why Kev should come back.

    THe analysis is ok once or twice but geez it really gets boring every week. I realise this site is here to analysis politics and polls and all the moving and shaking and fair enough but the same ol same ol does wear a bit thin.

    Labor will come back, I really believe that but it will take time. Gloom and doom every poll or weekly gloating will be par for the course. So be it.

  40. [BB, This is an astonishingly sexist thing to write. Your criticisms of Bourke would be more persuasive if you stuck to presenting specific criticism of what she writes.]

    O Puhleeeaze, Shows.

    Latika is a young, sexy girl, but WAY out of her depth.

    It has forever been thus.

  43. [Latika is a young, sexy girl, but WAY out of her depth.

    It has forever been thus.]
    Judging journalists based on their appearance is idiotic.

  45. High quality sexist post about Latika you can hold yourself up high with the homophobes on this site who make the snide comments about supposedly gay radio types.
    Of course you are the epitome of socially progressive egalitarian Australia.
    See if you can get a few racist comments as well about anyone you don’t like.
    BTW George Megalogenis is the token lefty at the Australian who pretends impartiality whereas Phil Adams is an opinion writer who has the guts to state his allegiances up front.
    Peter Van Onsolen is a Liberal progressive in the Malcolm Turnbull camp and has always loathed Abbott it’s a shame for him no one pays him the slightest attention.

  46. Doyley #5638,,,good points, Gratten is aware Conroy is more than a match for the media here, his job with the NBN has been magificently executed, as have the media every time they have tried to corner him. Now he has been given the tender process, I would think, not sure but think, Murdoch can put his cards away now. Whoever else tenders, murdoch will never win it, I would bet plenty on it.

  48. [ On a 0 to 10 scale of constructiveness where will Abbott pitch his “right of reply” on Sunday? ]
    You need negative numbers in there, B.K.

  49. David,

    Rebekah Brooks vows to say goodbye to every #NOTW employee:

    and will be modelling the 2011 New Edition Flak Jacket.

  50. Latika has gotten worse since she went to ABC. At least when she was with Fairfax radio she had to file a report every day, meaning she had to at least try to compile together a series of what had taken place that day to report to listeners. Now she just downloads press releases or speeches and fires off a series of tweets based on those. Stuff that anyone can access and read for themselves.

    Her output at the ABC provides next to no value at all. I can think of better things to do with the money we pay her salary with.

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