Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Yet more polling woe for Labor, with the latest Essential Research poll – which being a two-week rolling average is less prone to variability than other polls – putting the Coalition lead at a new high of 56-44. The primary votes are 49 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). We also have the frankly bizarre finding that perceptions on the economy have tanked in the two months since the budget, with “right direction” down eight to 37 per cent and “wrong direction” up 14 to 43 per cent. The Liberal Party has a telling lead of 43 per cent to 26 per cent on the question on “best party at handling economy”. On the question of same-sex marriage, 54 per cent are in favour and 35 per cent opposed: these results are more favourable than when the question was last asked in May, but basically the same as the previous result from November last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,693 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. Gary. I like the optimism, but Labor needs more than a shift back. Electorally, 50-50 won’t even cut it.

  5. [but I reckon the Libs will start shiteing themselves if the move back begins.]

    They have already convinced themselves they have the next election won. I’d be surprised if Abbott isn’t sneaking around to Kirribilli at nights to inspect the gardens and check the view is still what it was in Howies’ days.

  6. [What annoys me about interviews with sectional interest groups about carbon pricing is they never ask the interviewees whether they accept the need to reduce our GHGEs. ]
    Yes I think this is a very good idea. In fact, if they say “yes”, to that question, the follow up question should be “by what method does your organisation propose to achieve cuts to emissions, and how should it be funded?”

  7. JoeHockey Joe Hockey
    I never thought I would see the day…how humiliating for the once mighty ALP! |
    http://t.co/pMhlplr

    davidlen2 davidlen
    @
    @JoeHockey get used to consensus politics jojo, beware the knife from morrison he has his eyes on the oppo leader job yu ar not in the race

  8. I’m assuming that most of my fellow Bludgers are aware of the work of Douglas Adams.

    In addition to the Hitchhikers’ Guide to the Galaxy and Dirk Gently books, he also wrote a book (and sequel) called “The Meaning of Liff”

    The intention of this book was to “marry” everyday concepts that don’t have a succinct name to describe them, with names that aren’t currently realising their full potential (ie are just sitting around on signposts).

    Examples being:

    FRATING GREEN (a small village in Essex, England): the shade of green that is supposed to make you feel comfortable in hospitals, industrious in schools and uneasy in police stations.

    LOSSIEMOUTH (a Scottish port town): one of those middle-aged ladies with just the hint of luxuriant handlebar moustache.

    ABILENE (a city in Texas, USA): descriptive of the pleasing coolness on the reverse side of a pillow.

    WOLLONDILLY (a town in NSW): A woman who can’t get her lipstick on straight.

    You get the picture.

    Anyhoo, it occurred to me that this might be a fun game to play on Poll Bludger.

    First prize is a ticket to the ALP National Conference. Okay, maybe not.

    So it you are all up for it, here is the first entry:

    ABBOTTABAD: that sinking feeling you get when you are standing in a polling booth, ballot paper in front of you and pencil in hand, and you realise who the leader of your party is.

    😀

    Go nuts.

  9. [Gary. I like the optimism, but Labor needs more than a shift back. Electorally, 50-50 won’t even cut it.]
    Your pessmism don’t cut it with me I’m afraid. I’d be delighted if Labor were going into the election with 50/50 given where they have been. It would at least give them a chance.

  10. Will the notw stuff make journalist realise they have to lift their game? Brand Journalism has been kicked in the nuts with a size 12 hobnail, the response so far seems to be “look over there”. 🙁

  12. well no one helped al i will have a go

    Copy and paste. little finger on CRTL finger next to thumb
    right click run mouse over wordsl pop up comes up, and you click copy.
    then you can go to your word or where ever and click paste.

    now if i am wrong someone will correct me but here i am the untechhead doing my bit for humanity

  13. [if they say “yes”, to that question, the follow up question should be “by what method does your organisation propose to achieve cuts to emissions, and how should it be funded?”]

    Excellent suggestion. These sorts of questions would force these industry representatives to tell viewers precisely how they think abatement should be paid for: by taxpayers, not the companies themselves.

  14. [I’d be delighted if Labor were going into the election with 50/50 given where they have been.]

    Exactly what I’m saying. Even 50-50 is still “just a chance”. Gillard doesn’t have Howard’s 1998 seat buffer. I don’t know how we are going to win the election, whether it’s in 2 years or next week.

  15. [Gus, BB,

    I would suggest both of you be careful. News still has plenty of funds to launch legal proceedings against you.]

    They’d have to find me first. I’ve rejected offers to go “legit” from some publications, because I’d have had to reveal who I really am.

    I have faith in my anonymous usernames and passwords to prevent hacking my identity and to cover my tracks…oh… wait a minute

  16. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 6:39 pm | Permalink
    Gary. I like the optimism, but Labor needs more than a shift back. Electorally, 50-50 won’t even cut it.]

    and i am impatient with your lack of optimism

  17. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    David Cameron begins to look “out of his depth” bbc.co.uk/news/technolog… – #NOTW
    13 seconds ago

    [The crisis that closed the News of the World is, arguably, the third great crisis of trust in recent years.

    First the banks, then MPs expenses, now the media.

    David Cameron prides himself on being bold when big moments occur – challenging for the Tory leadership in 2005, calling on Gordon Brown to have a snap election in 2007 and that “big, bold and generous” offer to form the Coalition in 2010. The question this morning is whether he will dare to be bold now.

    He must know that he is tainted by the past – thanks to his hiring of Andy Coulson and friendship with Rebekah Brooks – whilst also being responsible for the future – the ownership, regulation and standards of the media. ]

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14076979

  19. twitterland is alive and on fire…

    jodieginsberg Jodie Ginsberg
    Cameron says there should be second inquiry to look at culture, practices and ethics of British press, including examining regulation #notw
    58 seconds ago

    RTÉ News
    rtenews RTÉ News
    British PM David Cameron says he will establish a full public inquiry led by a judge to get to the bottom of the hacking case #notw
    58 seconds ago

    Owen Jones
    OwenJones84 Owen Jones
    We’re watching a speech by – as Peter Oborne put it – “our greatly diminished Prime Minister” #notw #coulson

  21. [latikambourke | 2 minutes ago
    British PM David Cameron announces a second inquiry into the British press and how they are regulated.]

  22. I think it was a good idea to let Christine Milne announce the renewable stuff. The Greens will lose some bark over the agreement, so let them announce their success.

  23. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 6:49 pm | Permalink
    Gillard Labor has been so damaged that it will take a miracle to hold government now.]

    i dont want to sound like frank but are you really a labor person

  25. [JoeHockey Joe Hockey
    I never thought I would see the day…how humiliating for the once mighty ALP!]
    What an astonishing thing for Hockey to write considering the Country and National parties have had a veto over Liberal agriculture and regional development policies for decades.

  26. [I think it was a good idea to let Christine Milne announce the renewable stuff. The Greens will lose some bark over the agreement, so let them announce their success.]
    It will be interesting to see if any Green senators cross the floor and vote against the package. We will finally find out if the Greens are a strictly disciplined party like Labor.

  28. [i dont want to sound like frank but are you really a labor person]

    So sharing a view that doesn’t follow the PB meme makes me ‘not a Labor person’?

    Really?

  29. [JoeHockey Joe Hockey
    I never thought I would see the day…how humiliating for the once mighty ALP!]

    what is he talking about

  30. [Gillard Labor has been so damaged that it will take a miracle to hold government now.]

    Maybe, but given how hard it would have been to predict the current situation two years ago, its tough to judge.

  31. The Finnigans
    .
    Dolphin alert. Listening to Triple J I heard an interview with a band called Wet Young Dolphin who are in the running for Triple J’s Unearthed prize. Their description sounded very much like you.
    .
    “Wet Young Dolphin are perhaps best likened to Aragorn in Lord of The Rings. Stoic, resolute, powerful, but yet ruggedly attractive..”
    .
    http://theaftergigguide.wordpress.com/bands/wet-young-dolphin/

  32. [Exactly what I’m saying. Even 50-50 is still “just a chance”.]
    That will do me nicely given the state of the parties now. From there an election campaign would then favour the government being returned if they have managed to come back from so far down already.
    [Gillard doesn’t have Howard’s 1998 seat buffer. I don’t know how we are going to win the election, whether it’s in 2 years or next week.]
    What she does have is a nice base on which to build if the polls turn.

  34. [my say
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    JoeHockey Joe Hockey
    I never thought I would see the day…how humiliating for the once mighty ALP!

    what is he talking about]

    my say there was this link with his tweet..

    http://t.co/pMhlplr

  37. david
    .
    [Cameron is getting a real grilling from the UK jurnos]
    .
    I want to see him to also get a Gorillaring !!

  38. [there was this link with his tweet..]

    what an uneducated statement, we are use to Nic Mckim and greens making statements here,

    the mighty alp, can get on with other people and dont drown them out like the poor old national party that was the country party.

    this week Nick did all the talking about saving the schools ect,

    that is such a joke, we may be just a small section of the aust. population but my god Joe we adapt

    so what, he must be so jealous we the alp have great partners.

  41. gosh i wish i could tweet or speak to joe, what a ridiculous tweet, i thought it must be something serious.

    so he begrudges the greens being part of the policy does HE>
    after all the opp where ask to be on the committee and the declined so stop complaining

  42. ShowsOn @ 5538:

    [I don’t think it is this clear cut. The ABC would be worse off, for example, if someone like George Megalogenis didn’t appear on Insiders occasionally to point out the dumb policies of both sides.]

    Point taken; but I think you’re fence-sitting.

    George probably has mouths to feed but I think he’s losing credibility for contributing to a Murdoch rag.

    He appears to me to be the token objective observer, set up by News (and probably by Aunty) to establish some semblance of balance.

    If he stays with Murdoch he will in my view be tarnished forever.

    If he values his integrity he should ship out.

  44. [BB, Gus,

    You are both needed here on PB. Don’t want Murdoch messin’ with youse.]

    Well, SK, if they can find out who we really are, then it kinda proves our point, doesn’t it?

    Bring it on! A couple of reds and I’ll take on the world, or the News Of The World, or the Not-The-News Of The World… or whatever they call it nowadays.

    Matty Franklin gave an “absolute” guarantee that he had neither hacked, nor heard of any hacking at the local branch of News. “Ever”.

    That’s good enough for me. No one forced him to say it. And I believe him.

    It’s just that… it’s just that… reporters are so much cannon fodder these days… just ask the couple of hundred at NoTW that have just lost their jobs to preserve Rebekah (is Rebekah like Siimon with two ii’s?).

    As I said, cannon fodder.

  46. So now ABC Sydney TV news is running a piece on how the Euro ETS has never worked and how it’s prone to corruption and rorting.

    Helpful, I suppose.

    Perfect timing, absolutely.

  47. rishane@5580

    Gillard Labor has been so damaged that it will take a miracle to hold government now.

    I don’t accept the assumption at all. Its a pretty brave conclusion this far out from 2013.

    But if Labor gets it leglislation program implemented to the benefit of Australians and is still voted out, I could live with that.

    Abbott will also find it very hard to change it as well.

    Gillard is sticking to her guns and is deserving of credit for it.

  48. [Daz of Sydney Posted at 5:25 PM Today

    ‘No Carbon Tax Rally’, Saturday 9 July, Hyde Park Sydney, 12pm. BE THERE
    ]

    why do they bother?

  49. Mr Gawenda, on SBS just now, says that Ms Brooks is a goner and that Mr J Murdoch could be in a bit of direct strife himself.

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