Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Yet more polling woe for Labor, with the latest Essential Research poll – which being a two-week rolling average is less prone to variability than other polls – putting the Coalition lead at a new high of 56-44. The primary votes are 49 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). We also have the frankly bizarre finding that perceptions on the economy have tanked in the two months since the budget, with “right direction” down eight to 37 per cent and “wrong direction” up 14 to 43 per cent. The Liberal Party has a telling lead of 43 per cent to 26 per cent on the question on “best party at handling economy”. On the question of same-sex marriage, 54 per cent are in favour and 35 per cent opposed: these results are more favourable than when the question was last asked in May, but basically the same as the previous result from November last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,693 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. anyone weak suck who tries to draw in the myso shite is just playing ducks and drakes

    fatima is a fifth rate journo

    name me one article she has written that is worthy of praise

  2. [Judging journalists based on their appearance is idiotic.]

    why? they spend all their time judging politicians based on their appearance.

  3. Oh, and I agree with BB about Latika being prioritised for questions by the PM at her pressers – it was pretty obvious during the campaign. I note Gillard doesn’t do that anymore. Presumably Latika didn’t rise to the challenge.

  4. [name me one article she has written that is worthy of praise]

    Gus, here is one:

    [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    @
    @Thefinnigans flip flip flip.
    37 minutes ago ]

  5. the spec

    [Judging journalists based on their appearance is idiotic.

    why? they spend all their time judging politicians based on their appearance.]

    instant battlefield promotion for that one

    🙂

    u iz a 6.5 stars

    wear em with pride

    🙂

  6. David,

    I would put money on the government being very aware of what was happening in the UK when the decision was taken to given the job to Conroy.

    THe exchange between Bob B and Conroy in the Senate the other day was just confirmation to me that both are very aware what was happening and what the implications could well be for Murdoch internationally.

  7. BK,

    If I was Rabbott’s Rabid Media advisor I would be recommending to at least wait a day for the response. Given all his lies over the past months, I would want to think long and hard about how you continue to argue your case.

  8. [High quality sexist post about Latika you can hold yourself up high with the homophobes on this site who make the snide comments about supposedly gay radio types.]
    I pointed out Frank’s homophobia when he attacked Alan Jones simply because of his sexuality.
    [BTW George Megalogenis is the token lefty at the Australian who pretends impartiality whereas Phil Adams is an opinion writer who has the guts to state his allegiances up front.]
    Megalogenis is just interested in good policy. He attacks idiotic policies whether they are presented by the Government or the Opposition. I think Mike Steketee is the opinion writer most sympathetic to Labor.

  9. Labor will come back, I really believe that but it will take time. Gloom and doom every poll or weekly gloating will be par for the course. So be it.

    Doom and gloom nothing to do with it, only applies to those fretting over Labor or Liberal position because they are barracking for one the sides.

    Each poll is part of a continuity and tells a cumulative story that deserves telling, regardless if it is good or bad for Labor. I gather this is POLL bludger and not LaborOnlySupport HQ where only posts supportive of Labor and its leader are welcome and others are considered trolls.

    A continuing story of bad or worsening polls for one side IS a thing worth talking about and wondering when and if remedial action should be taken by the struggling side.

    The 12 month polling of Labor to date is newsworthy and very worrying and is telling the party a story that it must seek to understand. Head in the sand because the obvious analysis is repetitive and or boring (because it is consistent) would make the site Non-Poll bludger.

  10. david

    I didn’t think the UK journos were hard-hitting at all.
    They were asking questions that couldn’t have received an answer BECAUSE there’s a police investigation.

    But I’ll give you the one about Cameron handling it well. He was impressive but no more than Julia would have been in the same situation.

    What about the magic glass refilling with water? I reckon he had a bit to hide, quite a bit, and had a very, very dry mouth – but the journos missed the obvious question.

  11. [Declaring that self-regulation of the press had failed, Mr Cameron said a new body independent of the government and the news industry was needed to regulate newspapers in place of the Press Complaints Commission.

    “The truth is, we’ve all been in this together,” Mr Cameron said, blaming both the press and politicians. ]

    Will a similar thing happen here?

  12. [The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Hitler learns the News of the World has closed down youtube.com/watch?v=w8zwwd…
    7 seconds ago

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8zwwdmNYeY ]

    Oh Finn that had me in tears, it was magnificent, that series is so good, and fast off the mark, brilliant..thanks for sending. 😆

  13. Murdoch and Brooks are joined at the anus and this is why she wont take a bullet for his group. Killing one part of an will cause the remainder to rot, fester and die, though with Rupe we may not notice any difference.

  14. [Space Kidette

    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
    Charlton,

    They have been taking on Matt Franklin. Earlier on the comments were just questions. This afternoon they are reading more like straight out accusations. Neither need the legal hassle.]

    But you can say a lot more, particularly re. political discourse, than used to be the case.

    Your warning though is sensible, both for the commentators and for the moderator of this site.

    I’ve witnessed a number of Pyrrhic victories.

  15. misfit… as I said earlier, he reminded me of Howard, slippery, evasive etc…I was happy with the jurnos questions, which I thought brought on the dry mouth, always a giveaway.
    Would never argue about Julias ability in Pc’s, she is good and gets better and better.
    Cheers

  16. charlton

    news aint got the balls to sue me or bb

    we have facts on our side

    🙂

    ps neWs ltd is half owned by the saudi royal family

    thought you might like to know that FACT

  17. TP 5665,

    What you think is up to you and you are entitled to post those thoughts.

    I was expressing my opinion.

    I enjoy original, well considered and well thought out debate and exchange of ideas.I have no interest in the constant rehase of the same themes everytime a poll comes out.

    I just have no interest in reading the same rubbish from the same posters every time a poll comes out. My perogative.

  18. [Thomas Paine
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

    Labor will come back, I really believe that but it will take time. Gloom and doom every poll or weekly gloating will be par for the course. So be it.

    Doom and gloom nothing to do with it, only applies to those fretting over Labor or Liberal position because they are barracking for one the sides.

    Each poll is part of a continuity and tells a cumulative story that deserves telling, regardless if it is good or bad for Labor. I gather this is POLL bludger and not LaborOnlySupport HQ where only posts supportive of Labor and its leader are welcome and others are considered trolls.

    A continuing story of bad or worsening polls for one side IS a thing worth talking about and wondering when and if remedial action should be taken by the struggling side.

    The 12 month polling of Labor to date is newsworthy and very worrying and is telling the party a story that it must seek to understand. Head in the sand because the obvious analysis is repetitive and or boring (because it is consistent) would make the site Non-Poll bludger.]

    Oh dear the Gospel according to St Paine

  19. [Oh dear the Gospel according to St Paine]

    The re-run has been going on for years – you would think there would be a new show by now

  20. Thomas the Pain Engine,

    The Carbon Tax will be a reality soon with the support of the Greens, Oakshots, Wilkie and Windsor. That will be a great achievement of the Gillard and her Govt. You cannot take that away from her regardless of her political fortune.

    Suffer.

  21. he reminded me of Howard, slippery, evasive etc…I was happy with the jurnos questions, which I thought brought on the dry mouth, always a giveaway.

    Was cameron questioned regarding murdoch being given the go ahead to takeover B Sky B ? Is the decision being deferred, public interest test, fit & proper person to hold the licence ?

    Or did cameron just bat it away?

  22. [5496
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 5:50 pm | Permalink
    From Margaret Simons in today’s Crikey:

    Meanwhile, leading New York journalism academic Jay Rosen has been Tweeting mysteriously as follows:

    “If the story of criminal intimidation tactics at News Ltd. in Australia ever came out, today’s events in the UK would look different.”

    When asked for details, Rosen refuses to say more, but insists he is sincere and not merely being mischievous.

    Rosen will be in Australia at the end of August, speaking at the New News 2011 conference, run by the Foundation for Public Interest Journalism Foundation (which I chair) and the Melbourne Writers Festival]

    Now this has peaked my interest

  23. Spec,
    Thanks, I needed that image stuck in my head, it is better than the Spawn of Mordor’s atrocious accent.

  24. Dave
    They were more interested with his personal judgements re Coulson. They were trying to get him to admit hiring him as media advisor was a fail, and he knew Coulson was bad news all along.

  25. [george
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear the Gospel according to St Paine

    The re-run has been going on for years – you would think there would be a new show by now ]

    george I usually skip ole paine in the, but was interested in your response as I suspected it deserved one from you. Not disappointed 🙂

  26. ps neWs ltd is half owned by the saudi royal family

    Prince al-Waleed has a 7% voting stake in News, second only to Murdochs’.

  27. Thomas Paine @5665,

    Some of us are of the view that there is a very nasty feedback loop going on between the MSM, notably the Murdock press, 70% penetration in Oz , but also including their ABC (and BTW, thanks to the bludger that posted Mordor’s media holdings – horrifying) and the preferred political masters, strike that, servants of same, i.e., Abbott and co..

    That there are aspects of the gov’t functioning, particularly in a minority gov’t situation, no doubt contributes to these difficulties.

    Whether or not we can get out of getting an Abbott gov’t, I’ve no idea, but it scares me witless.

  28. [Bushfire Bill @ 5456:

    They’d have to find me first]

    If they really want to find they will.

    And given you eloquence…

  29. 5636
    [JohnQuiggin:

    “ABC News presents Gwyn Prins (listed among Inhofe’s 400 deniers) as an independent expert on the EU trading scheme ]
    I don’t see how Prins counts as a denier. Have a look at the paper he co-wrote here:
    http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/27939/

    He seems to believe in direct subsidies for clean energy tech – including nuclear – instead of a market mechanism. He also thinks we should find ways to generally improve air quality instead of just concentrating on CO2 emissions.

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