Yet more polling woe for Labor, with the latest Essential Research poll – which being a two-week rolling average is less prone to variability than other polls – putting the Coalition lead at a new high of 56-44. The primary votes are 49 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). We also have the frankly bizarre finding that perceptions on the economy have tanked in the two months since the budget, with “right direction” down eight to 37 per cent and “wrong direction” up 14 to 43 per cent. The Liberal Party has a telling lead of 43 per cent to 26 per cent on the question on “best party at handling economy”. On the question of same-sex marriage, 54 per cent are in favour and 35 per cent opposed: these results are more favourable than when the question was last asked in May, but basically the same as the previous result from November last year.
I think the government are going to use “Labor” and “Labor Government” constantly from now on in order to counteract what will no doubt also be the constant mantra from the Opposition that, as of July 1, Bob Brown is really PM and the Greens are running the joint.
Boerwar
[IMHO there should only be public schools and all children should have to go to them.]
Absolutely!
The “heading in the right/wrong direction” result is very interesting.
I remember in the lead-up to the 2007 Federal Election there was a lot of discussion around what this meant, given that Labor were riding high in the polls, but the response to that had a huge majority saying they thought the country was heading in the “right” direction, which was interpreted to mean that people could see a Labor victory on the horizon.
Hmmm.
Danny Lewis @ 1
I also think that’s what is behind the emphasis on “Labor government”. From Labor’s pov that is a good strategy.
Gillard’s got 6 months to turn it around, or else – Labor’s gambling everything on the carbon tax, which may or may not be a smart strategy.
Time will tell!
Well Australia’s carers will love the next fortnight when they get $600 or $1,200 slipped into their bank accounts. Will it get a mention in the media? I doubt it.
[Gillard’s got 6 months to turn it around, or else …]
Or else what?
Big, Big share market fall these last 2 months. Those with shares or super bound to take notice.
Christ, the Libs leading 43 to 26 on the better economic managers question.
Abbott and Hockey are economic illiterates. And after Abbott’s recent “economists are idiots” moment, I can’t believe I’m seeing this.
Who the Hell are they polling?
No-one with a tertiary education and half a brain, that’s for sure.
It’s damning that the coalition hold such a big lead on the economy.
If the government can’t even sell something like their economic achievements, they really don’t have any hope.
[Will it get a mention in the media? I doubt it.]
carers payment bonus will only get a mention if it is to remind us that Howie brought it in 👿
[IMHO there should only be public schools and all children should have to go to them.]
b peg et al
hear hear
tho there should be choice
but the state should not subsidise any non public school
The government did a mediocre job of selling their economic achievements during the 2010 campaign, because they were too frightened to evoke the name of one Kevin Rudd, and it’s been downhill ever since. 😉
On the “which party is best to handle the economy” question: 23% said no difference and 8% said don’t know. Considering that a majority of these voters come from the ALP and the Greens, all the result of that question implies is that Liberal voters feel more strongly about the debate of which party is best to handle the economy.
Think the most worrying long term finding is that Labor is seen by so many as the SUPPORTER of Big business. This is a worrying sign – goes to perceptions of party values.
30 years ago the idea that Labor would be seen as supporting business ahead of voters (workers) would have been absurd.
[Gillard’s got 6 months to turn it around, or else – Labor’s gambling everything on the carbon tax, which may or may not be a smart strategy.
Time will tell!]
Who said? The CT is being introduced in 12 months.
Abbott has had a shocker for the last two weeks, peak abbott was reached according to some here with the media turning on him and still Labor sinks further down the drain.
Gillard is the problem with the people.
[The government did a mediocre job of selling their economic achievements during the 2010 campaign, because they were too frightened to evoke the name of one Kevin Rudd, and it’s been downhill ever since.]
Which wouldn’t have needed to be the case if Rudd had sold it properly at the time.
One good thing in this poll is support for gay marriage
Qld alp voted for it i think
daretoread (from previous thread),
I don’t expect agreement. There is nothing wrong with a forceful argument. I think you have hit the nail on the head. On class politics, the DLP and the ALP were in the same book, if not on the same page. On identity politics, they differ greatly. But the world moves on. No one contested the 1901 election on gay marriage.
On education, I , a former member of the DLP, am more left-wing than Julia Gillard, a former(?) member of the Socialist Left.
The original DLP had a strong environmental understanding, but it did support uranium mining. I was in the minority inn opposing that, but it still challenges the stereotypes that such a minority even existed.
I think that the modern ALP is as pro-American as the original DLP was. We will see this with the development of American bases in Australia.
Boewar (from previous thread),
I think we were justified in defending South Vietnam from communism. I understand that many do not share this view. Had we succeeded, it would likely now be like Korea and Taiwan. However, that was not to be and I do have misgivings that we went to a war and then left without finishing the job, which can lead to the same misgivings re Afghanistan, in which I think the cause was just but the execution appalling so that ten years on, it looks like we are have failed and will adopt on the “declare victory and leave” principle.
I try to stick to the facts. Why could Julia Gillard not simply have said some months ago: I cannot keep my promise on the carbon tax because I do not have a majority and this is what I have to do to get an eventual price on carbon? But that is another issue that I do not have time to pursue?
No mystery, William. What’s happened is the big black cloud of the carbon tax hanging over the punters thanks to the best brains of Labor/Greens. Now its spilled over into economic perceptions, which will be very hard to shake. Very.
And a 49 primary number for coalition in an essential poll – quite unbelievable.
Pegasus (from previous thread),
It is not possible to correct every misrepresentation, but a healthy society does not engage in the first place
Boerwar (from previous thread),
I do not agree with you on private schools, but this is my last post as other duties call. I agree that government schools are underfunded, which is why I have been on the public record for more than 30 years arguing that they be better treated. It is why I made submissions to the Review of Funding for Schooling, which can be found at
here
and
here .
I have no problem with private schools getting government money for all sorts of reasons, some of which you can read in my submissions. The whole public-private debate is like revisiting the 1950s. The state aid debate in Australia was won 40 years ago, and there is no way we will go back to not having state aide for private schools.
[Abbott has had a shocker for the last two weeks, peak abbott was reached according to some here with the media turning on him and still Labor sinks further down the drain. ]
There’s a difference between a few editorials and ‘the media’, most of which is still pushing out the same crap it has for months. The sad part is that for many issues no matter what approach the Government takes they get bashed by the Serious People in the media. Put out all information at once, that’s secret government, take time to work it out, that’s ineffectual, release parts of the information, that’s ‘strip-tease’.
cc
No worries. We disagree in a basic way about Vietnam and Afghanistan.
At least we now know why Abbott is on 7.30.
Broken record time. A poll is not an election. The media’s complete obsession with two or three polls a fortnight makes for interesting sites like PB but does not change the government (unless the Labor powerbrokers really are fifth columnists).
All Labor can do is keep on governing and putting in place legislation that Abbott may rail against but which he cannot undo. How, for example, is he going to tear out the NBN if businesses are already moving to areas specifically to take advanatge of it?
I have said previously it will be a remarkable achievement for Labor to get back from this sort of polling to win in 2013. There have been too many missteps offeringfree kicks to a mainly hostile media*.
The only way it can fight back is to forget about polls and prospects and keep on doing good things for the long term future of Australia.
There is no point relying on Abbott imploding. He has too many supporters in the right places. Let’s see what 7.30 brings us – serious questoning or a feather bed base from which to spout slogans.
*Anyone doubting much of the media is actively hostile only needs to look at twitter over the past two days. Journos egging each other on with criticism of media conferences before they are even finished and verballing of the PM over the use of “forever” which was then repeated in mainstream bulletins.
Given that Senator Milne stated the MPCC deal will be released “later this week”, I reckon my bet of Thursday morning is looking good.
Nice try to blame Kevin Rudd for the mess, but it doesn’t wash.
Unfortunatly Mr Swan, although competent enough as treasurer is no salesman.
Selling was rather hard to do during the election – which is precisely when things need to be sold – when Julia Gillard was rabbiting on about having lost the way, moving forward, moving forward, moving forward together, and the real Julia. Its hard to sell when you trash your own brand.
The problem with the ALP on the economy is that they don’t list things the way the Hawke/Keating or Howard governments did.
They need to make it very clear that unemployment in this country is under 5%. In other countries it’s 100 times worse (Spain for example is around 20% last time I heard).
They’re not going to mention interest rates for statesmanship reasons which I think is rather silly. They should make the point at every opportunity that interest rates in John Howard’s last year were 6.75% and they are now 4.75% so that they get rid of this ridiculousness Hockey keeps peddling about interest rates being lower under the Coalition once and for all.
The other problem is that they’ve set the economic argument up on Costello’s argument about government debt being bad, not having debt being good which plays into all the ridiculous assertions of the Coalition.
It baffles me that people don’t understand that the mining tax is about securing Australia’s economic prosperity beyond the mining boom. People are still asking the question of how we are going to do it yet the government obviously hasn’t persuaded people (this is low hanging fruit as the Coalition are doing nothing).
[The Liberal Party has a telling lead of 43 per cent to 26 per cent on the question on “best party at handling economy”. ]
I remember a number of commenters about three years ago crowing that any power of the media to influence the political debate was now eroded so much by the “New Media” as to be almost non-existent now.
Boy o boy, how wrong was that stratement. There is only one primary reason for figures such as the above and that is because the MSM, weakened as it is, and thought to be in its death throes, can still influence public opinion and voting behaviour to such an extent that even a rabble like the current Opposition can be on the threshold of an electoral wipeout if an election were held today.
I know it is hard for labor to sell its virtues and policies in such a climate, but they better start to try and work out alternative strategies to the current ones which are patently, not working.
[No mystery, William. What’s happened is the big black cloud of the carbon tax hanging over the punters thanks to the best brains of Labor/Greens. Now its spilled over into economic perceptions, which will be very hard to shake. Very.]
But that cloud rolled over in February. So why the shift between May and July?
[If the government can’t even sell something like their economic achievements, they really don’t have any hope.]
The numbers speak for themselves. The problem is getting people to believe it isn’t the mirage msn and Abbott are telling them it is. When and if they hand over the reins of power to Abbott/Robb/Hockey will the stark reality hit them between the eyes and they will KNOW they’ve conned.
Chris Curtis @ 22
Oh, is that what we were doing?
I thought it all started off with the French attempt to re-impose their colonialism on the Vietnamese who fought with America in WWII. Silly me!
Of course after the Vietnamese saw off the French the US got even more involved and Australia was stupid enough to get drawn in.
S. Vietnam was an artificial construct that was supposed to last until the country united after elections that were never held.
The whole wretched business was a tragedy.
The ‘bizarre comment’ about the economy. You obviously don’t mix in the real world because there is a real feeling of economic insecurity in the community. NSW electricity prices just went up by almost 20%! That’s huge and it’s because of NSW Labor ineptitude and Federal Labor renewal energy policies as stated by IPART. And NSW has already had huge electricity rises. Then there’s a new tax on almost everything coming, which will drive industry off shore as well, plus an entire huge export industry has been shut down overnight. And that’s only the start of it all.
[smithe
Posted Monday, July 4, 2011 at 5:28 pm | Permalink
Christ, the Libs leading 43 to 26 on the better economic managers question.
Abbott and Hockey are economic illiterates. And after Abbott’s recent “economists are idiots” moment, I can’t believe I’m seeing this.
Who the Hell are they polling?
No-one with a tertiary education and half a brain, that’s for sure.]
Yes, it’s a joke that the Tories have such a lead in the economic stakes.
But, I still think these numbers are far from indicative, with the electorate in a state of flux at the moment re. carbon tax compensation.
With the recent announcement that petrol isn’t in the mix, the next Newspoll will be status quo or better but still not indicative until the issue is sorted.
Ooh! Some more little ones to play with, and some of the regulars!
[The faulty Monk was turned out into the desert where it could believe what it liked, including the idea that it had been hard done by. It was allowed to keep its horse, since horses were so cheap to make.]
Are states which own utilities and which are cash strapped wacking up their dividends secure in the knowledge that it will be the Gillard Government’s fault?
If it’s of any political comfort, you can be almost guaranteed that the next Coalition government will be found out on the economy the next time they get into government.
scorpio
[I know it is hard for labor to sell its virtues and policies in such a climate, but they better start to try and work out alternative strategies to the current ones which are patently, not working.]
I was talking with my young neighbour at the rear of my house this arvo he and his wife are both teachers in State School.
In the course of discussion I asked what the perception of the Federal Government was among their friends. There was no vitriol at all in his comments but he just said that the opinion of the Government amongst his friends and family was “poor’. He said he understood they are in a minority which doesn’t help the Governmnet but it went further than that.
His opinion was that since Julia Gillard became PM nothing seems to have happened.
I’m not sure if this has been covered in earlier entries, but this came through from Get Up this afternoon:
“Harvey Norman has been caught red handed by undercover environmental investigators selling furniture that fuels the destruction of Australia’s native forests.
Instead of using existing plantation timber – which is plentiful and affordable – an investigation by Markets for Change has revealed that Harvey Norman furniture is made from ancient Australian trees that are logged and sent to China for processing.
Incredibly, our new TV ad that shows what Harvey Norman are doing to our environment has just been banned from commercial TV by the industry body that classifies ads – because they’re scared of what Harvey Norman might do next.”
Interesting if the “non-commercial” ABC picks this up. Somehow, I have my…
Apart from Rudd, all Govts in the past 35 years (the limit of my knowledge) have done the nasty stuff in the first year and done the good stuff in the last.
Rudd was the exception, he spent the first two years on discussion and the last with the nasties. (of course the GFC did not help).
The coalitions best chance of winning an election was in 2010, all modern first term Govt have had a swing against them. Abbott would be PM if the NSW Libs were not fighting each other.
Abbott will go down in history as a conservative Kim Beazley, a good opposition leader but would you really want him as PM. In other words Abbott, like Beazley lost their only shot at the top job.
@Rishane #26
[The sad part is that for many issues no matter what approach the Government takes they get bashed by the Serious People in the media. Put out all information at once, that’s secret government, take time to work it out, that’s ineffectual, release parts of the information, that’s ‘strip-tease’.]
Funny you should say that, I posted a comment on Crabbe’s piece about the Prime Minister giving drip feed news conferencs
[You wonder how we got to the point where any consultation is news? Maybe it is because when it is not announced the government gets hit for not consulting, they announce they are consulting and get hit for not giving detail. They work on policy and cop it for taking too long, they release policy quickly and cop it for not taking time to consider. When they release facts they are ignored but if someone pulls a stunt it is all over the press.
Hold the government and opposition to tell the truth but don’t simply repeat the tripe and scaremongering of either side.]
She certainly hasn’t stopped to consider the role of the media in the political debates.
“I think we were justified in defending South Vietnam from communism..”
Well, that worked-out well, didn’t it?
Were you one of those people that actually believed that the Communist Hordes were sweeping south to rape and pillage our fair land? Strange how that never happened after ’75.
The just kinda won the war, tossed-out the US pupper regime and stopped dead.
I suppose our interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan good ideas too?
[Selling was rather hard to do during the election – which is precisely when things need to be sold – when Julia Gillard was rabbiting on about having lost the way, moving forward, moving forward, moving forward together, and the real Julia. Its hard to sell when you trash your own brand.]
The selling not only has to be done at elections. Rudd’s government was renowned for not being able to sell a message.
[Nice try to blame Kevin Rudd for the mess, but it doesn’t wash.]
Have to agree that was poor form.
He was only “one” Member of the Party.
Were the rest of them knocked out with valium or something.
Ru,
[Abbott will go down in history as a conservative Kim Beazley, a good opposition leader but would you really want him as PM. In other words Abbott, like Beazley lost their only shot at the top job.]
I get the point you’re making, but putting the Monk in the same category as Kimbo … chalk and cheese.
[Then there’s a new tax on almost everything coming]
I think you’re mixing the CT up with the GST.
[spur212
Posted Monday, July 4, 2011 at 5:57 pm | Permalink
If it’s of any political comfort, you can be almost guaranteed that the next Coalition government will be found out on the economy the next time they get into government.]
It’s not as bad as that. Once pensioners and self-funded retirees find they’re better off, they’ll return from whence they came. Or if they didn’t come from there, they will follow & support the money trail.
The PM has got many aces up her sleeve as she controls the purse strings.