Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

Yet more polling woe for Labor, with the latest Essential Research poll – which being a two-week rolling average is less prone to variability than other polls – putting the Coalition lead at a new high of 56-44. The primary votes are 49 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 32 per cent for Labor (steady) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). We also have the frankly bizarre finding that perceptions on the economy have tanked in the two months since the budget, with “right direction” down eight to 37 per cent and “wrong direction” up 14 to 43 per cent. The Liberal Party has a telling lead of 43 per cent to 26 per cent on the question on “best party at handling economy”. On the question of same-sex marriage, 54 per cent are in favour and 35 per cent opposed: these results are more favourable than when the question was last asked in May, but basically the same as the previous result from November last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,693 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Silence is Golden as far as The Australian is concerned when it comes to #NOTW scandal and pretends it just doesnt see
    8 seconds ago

  2. [ionacraig Iona Craig
    by Colvinius
    RT @DRoseTimes Andy Coulson is now at West End Central Police Station, Saville Row, to answer questions over #hacking & paying police. #notw
    ]

  3. lizzie

    What are your views on spelling ‘Rebekah’ with a ‘k’?

    Do you think that that might have been the start of the rot?

  4. What the hell is the point of asking Kate Carnell about the problems Gillard will face selling the scheme? The lobby group she heads has decided to spread as much Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about the ETS that she can.

  5. Plod, ‘Mr Coulson, please state your name and address.’
    Mr Coulson, ‘I ask all the questions around here.’
    Plod, ‘Not any more, you don’t.’

  6. [Gary @ 5456:

    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 5:13 pm | Permalink
    I wouldn’t give Latham’s words any credence what so ever. That man has an axe to grind.]

    Agree.

    In the vernacular, he’s a rat.

  7. Then there is other external evidence, witnesses etc.

    Some of the Met coppers who took some of the 100,000 pounds from murdoch’s people are going to have left their ID’s on computer files they accessed, which in turn will be able to be linked to various stories in NOTW and maybe other murdoch papers.

    Will those coppers want to risk doing time in the same prisons as crims they helped lock up or will they want to do a deal ??

  8. ShowsOn

    All day ABC24 have been searching for reasons why nothing will succeed. Apparently they think that constitutes “journalism”.

  9. BW, Partner, i can no longer maintain this “Silence is Golden” policy. Have you been moonlighting in my absence?

    I have done a fiduciary check on this character called Bluey, with some help from News Ltd and Uncle Rupe. You know hacking, backing, cacking, jacking, lacking, nacking, sacking etc.

    The report is not good, there is a link between Rebekah and Bluey. The Board of Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc is not happy. They have asked “Please Explain”.

  10. Gus, BB,

    I would suggest both of you be careful. News still has plenty of funds to launch legal proceedings against you.

  11. [What the hell is the point of asking Kate Carnell about the problems Gillard will face selling the scheme?]

    Ms Carnell is still a member of the Liberal Party. Of course the ABC value her opinion.

  12. [Kate Carnell spreading constant lies on ABC News 24.]

    Showy, Kate Carnell is the perfect example of Their ABC.

  13. dave

    [Dio – you need to do the TM thingy ?]

    Finns Boerwar Fukushima Inc own all of my property, part present and future; intellectual property is included.

  14. [All day ABC24 have been searching for reasons why nothing will succeed. Apparently they think that constitutes “journalism”.]
    Well, they interviewed economist Dr Frank Jotso who said the scheme – by world standards – will be pretty good.

    Surely Lyndal Curtis KNEW that Kate Carnel’s lobby group is against it, so what Curtis should do is challenge all of her claims. Then she should ask the Australia Institute guy (who supports a price on carbon) all the questions that challenge all of his claims.

  15. Always puzzled at the impact of the OO in Oz.

    I am sure someone will correct me, but I understand the daily circulation is around 130,000 in the whole of Oz which, I suppose, includes the “give aways” at the airports and the like. Clearly it is not published for the money it makes.

    In WA this would translate to what? 13,000 copies a day? I mean, who actually reads this rag?

    Even the mighty “Sun” in Melbourne is below 500,000 as I understand it while the “Sunday Times” here, the only Murdoch press, is under 300,000 and falling.

    Why is so much energy wasted in worrying about these poorly selling newspapers and the contents therein?

    Mind you, the ABC always quotes the OO as if it were some kind of paragon of virtue – a joke of even greater magnitude now.

  16. Re carbon tax.. If Gillard can take 500 companies out of it overnight, why does she just not loose 500 more tonight and just end the shenanigans. This tax is only for the greens so they can feel warm and fuzzy that action has been taken, despite that this action will do zip to change the temp or co2. I hope Gillard thinks it worth sacrificing the labor party so the green can bask in “there” action on climate change.

  17. News Lts seems to be trying to say it was all The News of the World’s fault. As if the notw is some kind of autonomous zombie robot that was not controlled by anyone.

    So I guess if directors of a company stuff up in the future News Ltd will not blame them but the company.

  18. Finns Boerwar Fukushima Inc own all of my property, part present and future; intellectual property is included.

    Dio – they may well be murdoch ? 🙂

    They could end up in jail ? Thats a thought!

  19. [Ms Carnell is still a member of the Liberal Party. Of course the ABC value her opinion.]
    That’s not my point. They had a guy from the Australia Institute on as well who was very supportive of the scheme.

    In fact, I loved his answer to the first question. Lyndal Curtis said “Is this the right time for an ETS?” and the guy just said “No, the right time was ten years ago.”

  20. [Finns Boerwar Fukushima Inc own all of my property, part present and future; intellectual property is included.]

    Diog, that is true but you forget to tell them that you still get the money. we are not that mean.

  21. [Dio – they may well be murdoch ?]

    Dave, Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc makes Murdoch looks like Santa 😛

  22. [What the hell is the point of asking Kate Carnell about the problems Gillard will face selling the scheme? The lobby group she heads has decided to spread as much Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt about the ETS that she can.]
    Well she does have a hard act to follow.
    Mitch Bloody Hooke!

  23. [Well she does have a hard act to follow.
    Mitch Bloody Hooke!]
    Mitch Hooke is a climate change denier, so he should simply be ignored.

  24. Rummel, if you are going to progress through the ranks of the young Libs you really should learn to spell.

  25. […but given the established skew of face-to-face that’s still a very wide margin.]

    The skew is related to think will win not the ALP.

  26. Why is so much energy wasted in worrying about these poorly selling newspapers and the contents therein?

    Look at Newscorp totality in the print & electronic media. Look at the way the ABC pick up newscorps editorial line and their stories, plus the newscorp people who regularly appear on ABC radio TV and internet opinion pages to the extent that the place seems infested by newscorp people and opinion.

    This is not coincidence

    The Hun in Melbourne is the highest circulation paper in Australia, the Tele in Sydney the highest circulation in Sydney. If you look at people on trains they have murdoch publications, not the Fin Review, although the Age & SMH are popular but behind the murdoch tabloids.

    Someone said here murdochs newspapers penetration is about 70% throughout Australia.

    Another way of expressing it is to say its Labors enemies talking to Labor’s *traditional* voters.

  27. [Space Kidette
    Posted Friday, July 8, 2011 at 6:01 pm | Permalink
    Gus, BB,

    I would suggest both of you be careful. News still has plenty of funds to launch legal proceedings against you.]

    But under the uniformed defamation laws my understanding is that you don’t have to prove truth plus a public interest; whereas, formerly you did. But in any event, caution should be observed, as it can be costly to agitate your point.

  28. The Charming Rebekah of Burma:

    [A lynch-mob mentality: Rebekah Brooks faces fury and tears as she announces ‘you’re all out of a job but I’m not’ – Shock turned to fury inside Fortress Wapping yesterday as Rebekah Brooks wielded the axe at the News of the World.

    Flanked by security as she addressed the newsroom, the paper’s former editor faced what was described as a ‘lynch-mob mentality’ among her erstwhile colleagues.]

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2012426/News-World-phone-hacking-Rebekah-Brooks-youre-job-Im-not.html#ixzz1RV5AobfG

  29. [Look at the way the ABC pick up newscorps editorial line and their stories, plus the newscorp people who regularly appear on ABC radio TV and internet opinion pages to the extent that the place seems infested by newscorp people and opinion.]
    I don’t think it is this clear cut. The ABC would be worse off, for example, if someone like George Megalogenis didn’t appear on Insiders occasionally to point out the dumb policies of both sides.

  30. Finns

    I asked Bluey about your allegations. He said that he knew all about your investigations and that he has forwarded some information about you, that he had come upon accidentally, to ASIO.

    He told me to tell you good luck with ASIO.

  31. [More dire polling for Labor, but nothing new there. Suspect it’ll be like this for quite some time now.]
    You mean you didn’t think that earlier before this poll?

  32. So the last polls before the carbon tax announcement are largely record lows for Labor.

    Atleast the only way is up. Currently pretty shambolic.

  33. Charlton,

    They have been taking on Matt Franklin. Earlier on the comments were just questions. This afternoon they are reading more like straight out accusations. Neither need the legal hassle.

  34. I don’t think it is this clear cut. The ABC would be worse off, for example, if someone like George Megalogenis didn’t appear on Insiders occasionally to point out the dumb policies of both sides.

    Talking more about shanahan, ackerman etc and the others. Mega is the best of the newscorp mob and by a huge margin.

  35. [I don’t think it is this clear cut.]

    But it is. I am a bit weird, I get up at 4am after listening to the ABC radio news, I then crank up the coffee turn on the ‘puter and read the newspapers.

    Lo and behold the entire ABC news is almost the Australian verbatim, try it and see if I am wrong.

  36. [Mitch Hooke is a climate change denier, so he should simply be ignored.]

    What annoys me about interviews with sectional interest groups about carbon pricing is they never ask the interviewees whether they accept the need to reduce our GHGEs. Anyone who says ‘no’ to that question should immediately have their opinions on carbon pricing discounted on the grounds that they don’t even accept the reality of Australia’s high emissions per capita in the first place.

    It would also lead to much greater transparency in this so-called debate.

  37. It’s good to remind ourselves that the Libs experienced record lows in 2008-9. I suspect these polls will move up for Labor over mid 2012/13. Whether it will be far enough to win Labor the election I don’t know but I reckon the Libs will start shiteing themselves if the move back begins.

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