Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

More confirmation Labor’s position has worsened from the 54-46 plateau it settled upon after the carbon tax was introduced, this time from Essential Research. Bernard Keane of Crikey reports the poll has the Coalition’s lead increasing from 54-46 to 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote down two points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Other results:

Asked which option from the major parties they prefer on transferring asylum seekers, only 16% of voters preferred Malaysia, compared to 34% for Nauru; 30% said they didn’t like either. Even Greens voters preferred Nauru (12%) over Malaysia (9%) — possibly because Nauru was a guarantee of asylum seekers eventually being moved back to Australia — and 34% of Labor voters didn’t like either solution, compared to 29% for Malaysia.

There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.

The live cattle export industry itself also retains public support, with only 22% favouring a full ban on live exports and 58% wanting the trade restricted to countries that treat cattle humanely. Support for live exporting of cattle no matter how they were treated was strongest among Liberal voters, at 19%.

There were also questions on the impact of the mining boom. The full report should be with you shortly. UPDATE: Here it is.

Other news/speculative rumour-peddling:

• Next month’s NSW Labor state conference will vote on a proposal to include open primaries as part of its preselection procedures for five mayoralty elections, including for the lord mayoralties of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with a view to repeating the process for five state seats before the 2015 election (one of which will be Newcastle, which the Liberals won for the first time in March). The plan is more radical than that put forward in the federal election review conducted by Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, proposing that primaries account for 50 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the total vote (except where there is a sitting Labor member), with the remainder to be determined in the usual fashion by party members and unions. The idea has been endorsed by the Prime Minister and state secretary Sam Dastyari and has the backing of the Right faction. However, it is opposed by the Left which sees the trial measure as a sop to quell discontent over rejection of proposals to allow rank-and-file members greater say in filling party administrative positions and delegates to national and state conferences.

• Meanwhile, Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Victorian Labor’s review of last year’s state election is likely to give the thumbs-down to the idea of primaries, citing an underwhelming response to a trial run for the Liberal-held seat of Kilsyth before the election.

• Also talking about primaries is Peter Reith, who made a similar recommendation that of Bracks/Carr/Faulkner in the federal election review he conducted for the Liberal Party, and who will shortly challenge Alan Stockdale for the party’s national presidency.

• Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection, following weekend reports he was sizing up Attorney-General Robert McClelland’s seat of Barton or Daryl Melham’s seat of Banks. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian quotes Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”

• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,924 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 139
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  1. [Morgan posted the 59 41 result and you all cried foul and refused to believe it]
    The last Morgan I saw on here had 46 – 54

  2. [Try 100% of nothing]

    Bemused. Thanks

    I just came back and looked at it again is still doesn’t make sense. That is exactly what I was trying to say.

  3. [Asylum seekers… announce East Timor ……Fail
    announce Manus Island…..Fail
    Announce agreement in Malysaisa in early MAY … no agreement yet
    want more??]
    So a policy not happening is a fail? Are you joking?
    A policy happening and not working is a fail.

  5. [Gary
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:13 pm | Permalink
    Morgan posted the 59 41 result and you all cried foul and refused to believe it

    The last Morgan I saw on here had 46 – 54]

    that was the morgan face to face known to have a bias of around 3 % to Labor

    [Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition
    Friday, June 3, 2011 – 4:35 pm, by William Bowe ]
    that was the morgan face to face known to have a bias of around 3 % to Labor
    I apologise I did say 59-41 it was 58-42

  6. SK – during my working life I handled many contract for shopping centre space. Frightening stuff to say the least and I applaud the brave people who taken the space.

    The scariest of the lot tho were Service Station leases – phew! is all I can say.

    Glad those days are behind me because I had sleepless nights trying to work out how to convince some people their accountants were talking baloney. Our office was usually right. You can pick the people who are starry eyed and who you know just won’t succeed. When we were really banging our heads against brick walls we would ask that file to be taken elsewhere.

  7. [Bob Brown originally let slip that the Greens won’t get what they want or what they think is best.]
    He didn’t let ‘slip’ anything.

    He has stated on several occasions in interviews and been quoted in newspaper articles that the Greens would not get what they want and that they are willing to compromise.

    [Senator Brown said today the trade-off on the carbon tax price would be to incorporate a mechanism to allow it to rise over time.

    “I’ve always said this is not going to be a Greens package,” he said in Canberra.

    “I’ve had talks with big fossil fuel-involved corporations and they think about $40 is about the price that’s required if you’re going to get a transition from coal to gas and onwards towards renewables. But we’re looking at a package here of measures to get us in that direction. It isn’t just a price that counts,” Senator Brown said.

    “All I can tell you is that whatever price comes out of this process is going to be the more active, the better because we’re there.

    “It won’t be a Greens price, but it will be greener because we’re there.”

    Pressed on how Greens voters would respond to a lower, watered-down price given the party’s opposition to the previous carbon pollution reduction scheme, Senator Brown said the party would accept a compromise.]
    25/5/2011: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/labor-rebuffs-greens-on-coalmines/story-e6frg6xf-1226062491025

  8. My mum head radio report that Sen x and Wilkie will support the plebiscite.

    Absolute majority is 76 in both houses, so Wilkie’s vote won’t matter? Is that correct? I can’t believe he would say yes for this.

  9. [mjwill90 1337wood Matt
    by Dan_Gulberry
    I don’t support a #plebiscite, but only because the maj. of Oz voters have the intellectual prowess of a scrub turkey #auspol]

  10. [Morgan posted the 59 41 result and you all cried foul and refused to believe it]
    Ok, found it tucked away and I still don’t believe Labor at the next election will face a 41 -59 result just as I didn’t believe the Libs would in the 2010 back in 2008 -9. when the polls were showing something similar for Rudd.

  11. [Gary
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:14 pm | Permalink
    Asylum seekers… announce East Timor ……Fail
    announce Manus Island…..Fail
    Announce agreement in Malysaisa in early MAY … no agreement yet
    want more??

    So a policy not happening is a fail? Are you joking?
    A policy happening and not working is a fail.]
    This my friend is the sad position you are in. It is hard to argue with this logic! A policy not happening is pretty close to what is happening LOL but alas it is still a FAIL

  12. Sky News refers to the “Rudd-Gillard saga”, saying it “continues”, yet everyone they ask says “No”.

    So who’s “continuing” the “saga”?

  13. BH,

    They are scary contracits. I encourage people to investigate alternatives before they agree to one. And to imagine a week where they sold bugger all and what it would mean financially if they couldn’t make rent.

  14. Biasdetector, as you can see from ” rel=”nofollow”>this chart, the Morgan F2F 3 per cent bias to Labor appears not to apply anymore, at least if you use Newspoll as your benchmark.

  15. [My mum head radio report that Sen x and Wilkie will support the plebiscite.

    Absolute majority is 76 in both houses, so Wilkie’s vote won’t matter? Is that correct? I can’t believe he would say yes for this.]
    Won’t it come to to the Speaker?

  16. [BH @ 78:

    Charlton – great idea for that loudmouth Beattie. Let him stand in a marginal Liberal seat and work hard if he wants the job.

    Beattie’s mea culpas were the inspiration for Labor apologising for the HIP. They didn’t realise that Qlders were sick of Beattie’s apologies. I can’t bear the thought of another Labor pollie apologising for anything they thought was right in the first place.]

    I agree with you about political mea culpas. They may work sometimes but usually serve to come back to bite the opologistt, like the pink batts.

    Perhaps Beattie should stand in Arch Bevis’ old seat of Brisbane or Peter Slipper’s, Fisher. I reckon he would take a personal following of some 5% in either seat.

  17. Generic Person,

    [No 86
    Failed logic. Sometimes the solution is to *do nothing*. ]

    That’s only if your name is Abbott! 😉

  18. blackdog,

    Wilkie said this morning that he wasn’t going to discuss it. Don’t know if he has changed his mind since then.

  19. [Gary
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:19 pm | Permalink
    Morgan posted the 59 41 result and you all cried foul and refused to believe it

    Ok, found it tucked away and I still don’t believe Labor at the next election will face a 41 -59 result just as I didn’t believe the Libs would in the 2010 back in 2008 -9. when the polls were showing something similar for Rudd.]
    Gary you might be right…being in government as lots of advantages
    Gillard has also tied her fate with the independents and less so with the greens, so they will not remove her
    But a by election could spell diaster

  20. [I apologise I did say 59-41 it was 58-42]

    You were not mistaken as such – 59-41 was Morgan’s headline figure, using the respondent-allocated preference measure. But I use the previous-election measure for the sake of consistency, which was 58-42 rather than 59-41.

  21. [This my friend is the sad position you are in. It is hard to argue with this logic! A policy not happening is pretty close to what is happening LOL but alas it is still a FAIL]
    Not at all. It’s your opinion of which I don’t agree.

  22. [Won’t it come to to the Speaker?]

    I don’t think so because a motion to suspend standing orders requires an “absolute majority” of the entire parliament, that is, 76 (150/2 + 1). It still requires 76 votes even if there are only 80 members present at the actual division.

  23. [Absolute majority is 76 in both houses]

    Well there’s only 76 senators, so you’re off in your numbers somewhere. Absolute majorities are also irrelevant as far as the Senate goes.

  25. [But a by election could spell diaster]
    Depending on where it is and when. I think it’s unlikely but certainly possible.

  27. Is that really Abbott’s proposed wording on a plebiscite?

    “Are you in favour of a law to impose a carbon tax?”

    What are we allowed to answer?

    1) I am in favour of various possible laws to impose a carbon tax
    (eg like the one in Norway) but maybe not one that
    taxes the people to pay polluters.

    2) No, but I would be happy to have an initial fixed price
    period to start an ETS.

    3) Yes, I think diamonds and carbon-copy paper should be
    subject to the GST.

    4) Depends on the law. Show us.

    I know that plebiscites are non-binding but this
    wording is pretty pointless.

  28. [Well there’s only 76 senators, so you’re off in your numbers somewhere. Absolute majorities are also irrelevant as far as the Senate goes.]
    I think you’ll find they were talking about the H of R.

  29. Climate Spectator, 25/5/2011
    ————————————————–

    Australian Greens leader Bob Brown says there is more to his party’s climate change negotiations with the federal government than just setting a carbon price.

    Greens senator Christine Milne reportedly has said her party would support a more limited climate change strategy, so long as it provided a platform for greater levels of ambition later.

    Last week, she argued a carbon price of more than $40 a tonne would be needed to drive the switch from coal-fired power to gas.

    Senator Brown said he had held talks with fossil fuel companies and they agreed that that price was about right.

    “But we are looking at a package here of measures that is going to help us move in that direction (towards renewables),” he told reporters in Canberra.

    “It isn’t just the price that counts.”

    Senator Brown said the Greens were “in the business of compromising” through the multi-party climate change committee to get the best possible policy outcome.

    “It’s not a trade of time versus amounts,” he said.

    ———————————————————————-

    I could continue to furnish more evidence 😉

  30. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:22 pm | Permalink
    Biasdetector, as you can see from this chart, the Morgan F2F 3 per cent bias to Labor appears not to apply anymore, at least if you use Newspoll as your benchmark]
    as mentioned before I suspected the newpoll is in error especially the 51 to 49

  32. [Well there’s only 76 senators, so you’re off in your numbers somewhere. Absolute majorities are also irrelevant as far as the Senate goes.]

    Itep

    Sorry for the mistake. I shouldn’t have said both houses. Thanks for information on the irrelevancy of the senate speaker.

  33. [If it’s 75-74, then he won’t get a vote will he?]
    Labor would have 72 plus Bandt, Windsor and Oaky, so that’s 75.
    The coalition would have 72 plus Crook, Katter and Wilkie, so that’s 75.

  34. [ William Bowe
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:23 pm | Permalink
    I apologise I did say 59-41 it was 58-42

    You were not mistaken as such – 59-41 was Morgan’s headline figure, using the respondent-allocated preference measure. But I use the previous-election measure for the sake of consistency, which was 58-42 rather than 59-41.]

    Thank you William

  35. Scorpio.
    .
    Abbott is not doing nothing he has taken action and taken a strong stand against the perils of climate change. HeJust look at him in action here….

  37. Pegasus

    Do you happen to know that what the Greens negotiator says at the multi-party committee is automatically supported by all Greens Senators?

    Or is there scope for individual Greens Senators to deviate from the Party line?

  38. [as mentioned before I suspected the newpoll is in error especially the 51 to 49]
    I wouldn’t argue on that. That was a clear outlier IMHO.
    However I’d like to see a few more polls before saying the Nielsen poll was spot on.

  41. ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 3 minutes ago
    [#auspol Is it me or R all those coalition supporters hre who whr having a gd day last friday post the polls not feeling as well 2day?]

  42. [Gary
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:31 pm | Permalink
    as mentioned before I suspected the newpoll is in error especially the 51 to 49

    I wouldn’t argue on that. That was a clear outlier IMHO.
    However I’d like to see a few more polls before saying the Nielsen poll was spot on.]

    very wise

  43. From the House of Reps Guide To Procedures:

    [In cases of necessity a motion for the suspension of any standing or sessional order or orders may be moved without notice. Unless moved by leave of the House (see below), this motion must be carried by an absolute majority of Members of the House—75 in a House of 148 (S.O. 399). ]

    “By leave” means “by unanimous agreement” of the House, in practice just a nod from the opposing manager of business.

    So, unless leave is granted, the motion to suspend must be passed with a vote, in this 150 member parliament, of 76 or more.

    If Oakeshott, Bandt and Windsor vote “No” then it’s dead I think. No plebiscite.

  48. So now we know why Beattie was rubbishing Rudd:

    [• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.]

    From William above!

    And also this from Morris Iemma who is a decent bloke:

    Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”

  49. Just a straw in the wind, learned today, via a roundabout way, that around 30 commercial art galleries have closed in the last while.

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