Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal in SA

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest quarterly state Newspoll for South Australia offers Labor something they have become unaccustomed to: a result less bad than the last. The Liberal two-party lead is now at 54-46, down from 56-44 last time, from primary votes of 30 per cent for Labor (up one), 40 per cent for Liberal (down two) and 14 per cent for the Greens (steady). Mike Rann has partly closed the yawning gap between him and Isobel Redmond as preferred premier, now trailing 34-45 rather than 32-50. However, his personal ratings are little changed: 31 per cent approve (up one), 59 per cent disapprove (steady). Redmond’s ratings, logically enough, have weakened: approval down one to 51 per cent, disapproval up four to 29 per cent.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

20 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal in SA”

  1. Yes not actually that bad a result, with the budget fading. If Rann’s personal problems were out of the way, Labor could still win the next election.

  2. ‘Spring offensive to install Jay Weatherill as premier gains pace’

    [A PUSH to install Education Minister Jay Weatherill as premier after Parliament’s winter break is gathering steam in Labor.

    The latest leadership speculation, which has dogged the party since last year, has been reignited by backbencher Leon Bignell.

    Mr Bignell said replacing Mr Rann with Mr Weatherill would be “a solution to Labor’s problems”.

    Labor faction leaders should get together and draw up a succession plan for the eventual replacement of Mr Rann, he told The Advertiser.

    Parliament rises on July 29 and returns on September 13 with party sources saying that while there had been talk of waiting until next year, time was running out and the party did not have the luxury of delaying the inevitable.

    There has been a concerted push over the past few months to cement Deputy Premier John Rau’s position as the logical successor, even though he has been consistently outpolled by Mr Weatherill as the person who should lead Labor to the next election.

    At least one senior party source has told The Advertiser the changeover would occur in the last week of August.

    A Newspoll published in today’s Australian shows Mr Rann has been able to make little ground on Liberal leader Isobel Redmond and her party since a terrible result in the last poll in April.

    Mr Weatherill tried to hose down leadership speculation, saying there was no vacancy and he would not be challenging Mr Rann.

    “If there were a vacancy, it is more likely than not that I would be a candidate, but right now I’m concentrating on the important task of reforming public education in SA,” he said.

    Left-wing unions, which are behind a long-running campaign against the Government over last year’s Budget cuts, are also pushing for Mr Weatherill to replace Mr Rann.

    In April, former treasurer Kevin Foley launched a bitter attack on Mr Bignell, saying: “I wouldn’t want to rely on Mr Bignell’s judgment on the politics of how you win elections”.]

  3. I must confess I would prefer Rau to succeed Rann. A steady leader would minimise the damage in 2014 and put Labor in a decent position in opposition for 2018. The guy has lame duck written all over him anyway. I can’t see him being an effective OL. Whereas, factional politics aside (yes, I don’t need a lecture about the factional hegemony of the Right) Weatherill would be best saved for leading the party from Opposition as a “fresh voice” a la Rann in the early days

  4. I think Rau would probably be ok, but he has a fairly dour demeanour. He’d certainly be an improvement on the circa 2011 Rann model.

    I’m still batting for Weatherill – it’s death or glory in politics, no point doing a Costello and sitting on your hands.

    It’s interesting that both of the would-be premiers are ex Henley High school students!

    The other elephant in the room in all of this is that Izzy is still never going to be premier. Just wait for Iain Evans to pounce.

    I’m sticking by my no Rann or Redmond by 2014 storyline.

  5. Agree sykesie – by the time the wheel has done a full rotation it’ll be the next next generation, Weatherill will have lost his chance.

  6. On Twitter:

    [_AdamTodd Adam Todd
    Premier Mike Rann promises a “major announcement” after this morning’s Labor caucus meeting #saparli]

    [mikesmithson7 Mike Smithson
    by marshall_steven
    Raised voices heard coming from labor caucus after bignell comments @7NewsAdelaide @1395FIVEaa #saparli]

  7. [The NSW Labor disease spreading.]
    I think you’ll find we’ve had it for quite a while…

    Dominant right faction
    Far right union bosses in control
    Government obsessed with spin and “law and order” agenda
    Absence of any traditional ALP values on display at any stage
    Hell, we even have a messed up public transport system

  8. 16

    Adelaide has multi-modal ticketing unlike Sydney and there is also the electrification (with various other improvements) in the pipeline which is a far greater improvement to the whole system compared to anything Sydney has done since its electrification.

  9. [Hell, we even have a messed up public transport system]

    It is a vast improvement over what it was like 9 years ago and, as TomTFAB points out, there are more improvements in the works.

    PT is one area that the Rann govt has been good in. Even the troublesome upgrades are still a vast improvement.

  10. Sunday Mail poll out tonight showing similar figures, which is probably a blessing for all in the polling industry. Will comment on that in separate thread if it eventuates.

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