Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

More confirmation Labor’s position has worsened from the 54-46 plateau it settled upon after the carbon tax was introduced, this time from Essential Research. Bernard Keane of Crikey reports the poll has the Coalition’s lead increasing from 54-46 to 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote down two points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Other results:

Asked which option from the major parties they prefer on transferring asylum seekers, only 16% of voters preferred Malaysia, compared to 34% for Nauru; 30% said they didn’t like either. Even Greens voters preferred Nauru (12%) over Malaysia (9%) — possibly because Nauru was a guarantee of asylum seekers eventually being moved back to Australia — and 34% of Labor voters didn’t like either solution, compared to 29% for Malaysia.

There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.

The live cattle export industry itself also retains public support, with only 22% favouring a full ban on live exports and 58% wanting the trade restricted to countries that treat cattle humanely. Support for live exporting of cattle no matter how they were treated was strongest among Liberal voters, at 19%.

There were also questions on the impact of the mining boom. The full report should be with you shortly. UPDATE: Here it is.

Other news/speculative rumour-peddling:

• Next month’s NSW Labor state conference will vote on a proposal to include open primaries as part of its preselection procedures for five mayoralty elections, including for the lord mayoralties of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with a view to repeating the process for five state seats before the 2015 election (one of which will be Newcastle, which the Liberals won for the first time in March). The plan is more radical than that put forward in the federal election review conducted by Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, proposing that primaries account for 50 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the total vote (except where there is a sitting Labor member), with the remainder to be determined in the usual fashion by party members and unions. The idea has been endorsed by the Prime Minister and state secretary Sam Dastyari and has the backing of the Right faction. However, it is opposed by the Left which sees the trial measure as a sop to quell discontent over rejection of proposals to allow rank-and-file members greater say in filling party administrative positions and delegates to national and state conferences.

• Meanwhile, Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Victorian Labor’s review of last year’s state election is likely to give the thumbs-down to the idea of primaries, citing an underwhelming response to a trial run for the Liberal-held seat of Kilsyth before the election.

• Also talking about primaries is Peter Reith, who made a similar recommendation that of Bracks/Carr/Faulkner in the federal election review he conducted for the Liberal Party, and who will shortly challenge Alan Stockdale for the party’s national presidency.

• Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection, following weekend reports he was sizing up Attorney-General Robert McClelland’s seat of Barton or Daryl Melham’s seat of Banks. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian quotes Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”

• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,924 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Hey Frank,

    I think William has posted the full post on the WA issue.

    Although, there really isn’t anything that wasn’t in that link.

  2. not sure who she is referring to

    [MICHELLEGRATTAN | 3 minutes ago
    Age’s Bella has moved upmarket to hassle acadamics rather than political staffers. Good luck bella. u will be missed by all in Parlt House]

  3. I am on record here to the effect that I don’t like Julia Gillard because of her leading a bipartisan group of parliamentarians on a junket to visit the murderous Israeli r5egime just months after they killed about 1400 defenseless Gazans.

    Shortly after that, she threw an Australian Citizen under a bus in favor of another regime that is the habit of using quasi legal argument to murder their adversaries, or those they consider to be their adversaries.

    Both were contemptuous acts that betrayed a superficial morality on her part. There were other ways to avoid controversy and association with egregious international criminal acts.

    In my mind, that puts Rudd beyond the pale for his strident advocacy for the Libyan intervention. He really has blood on his hands with that one. I hope he knocks on my door next election with a gaggle of reporters in tow; I have my little response well rehearsed. I can’t stand warmongers, but crybaby warmongers make me want to slap them around the chops.

    Now, I have to acknowledge that the PM is one the finest political operators I have seen for a long time. Her achievements and nous, under incredible partisan assault from the media, and every hayseed political commentator, are remarkable to say the least.

    As for the polls, they IMHO are Labours greatest asset because they will keep Abbot on ice as Gillard does him slowly – to borrow an idiom from PJK.

    It will be a nightmare scenario for Labour if the Liberal party were to replace Abbot before the next election.

    People are simply displaying their general contempt for politicians right now; in the end they will always vote for a professional politician.

    Abbot is a donkeys arse, and unelectable. There is absolutely no way he can pull the wool over a second time, and no amount of good press can polish that turd enough to make it so.

  4. [shows

    or when you went on how i bashed my wife

    even tho i said that it was offensive, you seemed to get some sick thrill out of it

    It sure does take all types ……]
    Yeah those were the days Gusface, those were the days…

  5. BK
    GN ice-cream will is my diet-breaker. I must not have any in the house if I during times of denial. It is sublime.

  6. [ShowsOn

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 9:03 pm | Permalink


    or when you went on how i bashed my wife

    even tho i said that it was offensive, you seemed to get some sick thrill out of it

    It sure does take all types ……

    Yeah those were the days Gusface, those were the days…

    And proof you are what William described Evan 14 is 🙂

  7. [The vote passed, and hence RU486 is available to Australian women.]
    Have you noticed that whenever there is a conscience vote in parliament, the socially progressive (dare I say ‘liberal’) position tends to win?

    If there was a debate on legalising same sex marriage in the current parliament, it would pass. The only thing that stops it from passing is disciplined parties and a lack of political leadership. This Galaxy poll says, 62% of Australians support same sex marriage:

    I admit I don’t know what the actual question was. This poll says 75% think it WILL happen (whether they agree with it or not):

  8. [Gusface @ 6889:

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 8:54 pm | Permalink


    why do you think all the protagonists are male?]

    I was going to leave it at that but seeing you replied I’ll just add this.

    Yes, all the protagonists were male but there were no doubt a number of females who viewed the posts & who probably felt quite uncomfortable & who may have posted but for the general tenor of the night.

  9. I just watched a segment of contrarians on Sky. The token labor guy had clearly had a lobotomy and he was the smartest of the group by such a large amount I was shocked and scared, and I’ve watched fox from the US … this was stupider and scarrier, the saying ‘only in America’ should be expanded henceforth from ‘only in America or on Sky.’

    It was just breathtaking moronic … Pauline Hanson is a genius compared to those morons.

  10. [And proof you are what William described Evan 14 is :-)]
    Someone who thinks Frank is a gigantic moron who is incapable of thinking critically for himself?

    Yep, consider me guilty as charged Frank.

  11. [ Which reminds me that there are male Liberal commenters (Glen, GP), but no women Liberals. Is this right?]


  12. SO:

    I suppose it’s a bit like referendums. Those with bipartisan support (ie there’s no partisan political agenda present in debate) tend to get voted Yes. Just like consciences votes, where there is similarly no partisan political agenda in debate also get up.

    The polls are clearly on the side of legal same sex marriage, and I’m hopeful that if/when it comes to parliament as a conscience vote, it will pass.

  13. [Can somebody please ask Michelle Grattan what an “acadamic” is?]

    possibly a macadamia nut undertaking tertiary education.

  14. [6913


    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    And proof you are what William described Evan 14 is

    Someone who thinks Frank is a gigantic moron who is incapable of thinking critically for himself?

    Yep, consider me guilty as charged Frank.

    William is a trumped up Schoolboy and the Alex B Keaton of POllbludger.

    you on the other hand are neither.

  15. fess,
    Thanks for asking.
    Ok most of the time, sheer damn hell otherwise. I am still in a kind of shock, I think.

  16. I hope they were long emails BK and used a lot of very naughty words. Was the partisan hack compere Peter VO? I’ve read some of his stuff and he writes a lot of absolute tosh, but also sometimes has written something resembling analysis a very junior high school student would not be embarrassed by, but having watched him I think he must have got Julie Bishop to write the good ones, and clearly she’d have got the maintence gal in the office write it for her.

  17. @ShowsOn/6910,

    If there was same sex marriage really serious issue, why was there a minister ousted by the media because he was visiting gay clubs? You do remember that right? (Labor MP David Campbell)?

    Or was it all because it was an attack on Labor?

    Abit of Two faced there?

  18. shock poll result, massive sample, tiny MOE – may as well resign in disgrace

    [READERS have overwhelmingly given Julia Gillard the thumbs down on almost every measure in her first year as PM.

    An estimated 20,000 readers of News Limited mastheads across the country – including gave Ms Gillard a resounding “D” for her performance on almost every important issue, one year after she took the mantle as Australia’s first female Prime Minister.

    The interactive report card, rating her performance on an A-D scale, shows Ms Gillard has precious little support for her handling of the mining tax, asylum seekers and the carbon tax.

    In her worst score, 15,556 people gave her a “D” for dealing with asylum seekers with just 578 giving her top marks.

    Voters also crucially failed her honesty, vision and leadership.

    In most categories, close to 14,000 respondents gave her the lowest possible rating, leaving her with a “D” for her handling of the National Broadband Network, dealing with the independents, her performance on the world stage, and understanding over everyday Australians.

    The PM even failed in the wardrobe department and her manner of speaking.

    Her strongest suits were seen as her determination, where an extra 520 votes would have given her a “B”, and her handling of the war in Afghanistan where there were significant scores for “B” and “C”.

    But in ongoing bad news for Julia, the report card still shows she scored “Ds” in both categories.

    The embarassing report card comes amid renewed leadership speculation as dumped former PM Kevin Rudd’s popularity soars.

    Read more:

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