Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

More confirmation Labor’s position has worsened from the 54-46 plateau it settled upon after the carbon tax was introduced, this time from Essential Research. Bernard Keane of Crikey reports the poll has the Coalition’s lead increasing from 54-46 to 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote down two points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Other results:

Asked which option from the major parties they prefer on transferring asylum seekers, only 16% of voters preferred Malaysia, compared to 34% for Nauru; 30% said they didn’t like either. Even Greens voters preferred Nauru (12%) over Malaysia (9%) — possibly because Nauru was a guarantee of asylum seekers eventually being moved back to Australia — and 34% of Labor voters didn’t like either solution, compared to 29% for Malaysia.

There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.

The live cattle export industry itself also retains public support, with only 22% favouring a full ban on live exports and 58% wanting the trade restricted to countries that treat cattle humanely. Support for live exporting of cattle no matter how they were treated was strongest among Liberal voters, at 19%.

There were also questions on the impact of the mining boom. The full report should be with you shortly. UPDATE: Here it is.

Other news/speculative rumour-peddling:

• Next month’s NSW Labor state conference will vote on a proposal to include open primaries as part of its preselection procedures for five mayoralty elections, including for the lord mayoralties of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with a view to repeating the process for five state seats before the 2015 election (one of which will be Newcastle, which the Liberals won for the first time in March). The plan is more radical than that put forward in the federal election review conducted by Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, proposing that primaries account for 50 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the total vote (except where there is a sitting Labor member), with the remainder to be determined in the usual fashion by party members and unions. The idea has been endorsed by the Prime Minister and state secretary Sam Dastyari and has the backing of the Right faction. However, it is opposed by the Left which sees the trial measure as a sop to quell discontent over rejection of proposals to allow rank-and-file members greater say in filling party administrative positions and delegates to national and state conferences.

• Meanwhile, Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Victorian Labor’s review of last year’s state election is likely to give the thumbs-down to the idea of primaries, citing an underwhelming response to a trial run for the Liberal-held seat of Kilsyth before the election.

• Also talking about primaries is Peter Reith, who made a similar recommendation that of Bracks/Carr/Faulkner in the federal election review he conducted for the Liberal Party, and who will shortly challenge Alan Stockdale for the party’s national presidency.

• Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection, following weekend reports he was sizing up Attorney-General Robert McClelland’s seat of Barton or Daryl Melham’s seat of Banks. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian quotes Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”

• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,924 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. last night was tame compared to some doozies

    very true. The place has its moments.

    Last night was sorta like the bar in blade runner

  2. Other things you notice:

    1. Rudd knew at that presser he didn’t have the numbers. He held that presser as a face-saving exercise (Speers ‘now’ even saying he doesn’t have the numbers).

    2. He talked about AS and ETS, and said about not being dragged to the right ‘by some’. It is clear now that ‘some’ means Gillard. He deliberately tried to sabotage her leadership from the start.

    3. He promised to have a leadership ballot at 9am the next morning. We know now that never happened because he refused to contest a ballot. I believe he knew he didn’t have the numbers, and knew he’d never win. If he had done as promised and contested in a ballot we wouldn’t have this ongoing anguish and saga today, and Gillard’s leadership and authority would be clear.

  4. [not without a hiccup or two may I add]

    I was hoping you would be a little more discreet and not publicise my myoclonus of the diaphragm. But I promise to do better going forward!

  5. Blossom,
    Australia does the poliitical career-assassination of female contenders for the high office of Prime Minister very, very well. The attacks usually come from both the opposite party and from within their own party. The take-downs cross the partisan divide.

    That is one of the reasons Julia Gillard will go down in history as one of the most incredible women this country has seen. Whoever comes after her as the second female Australian PM will be standing on the shoulders of an amazing woman.

    Whatever any woman’s political leanings, I would hope she would treat the breakthrough by Julia Gillard into the Prime Minister’s role as powerful progress for the advancement for the equality of women in Australia, and as hope for other women in the world struggling against barriers to self-determination.

    It was only 45 years ago that women had to resign from the Federal Public Service upon marriage and a mere 5 years since Tony Abbott, Health Minister in the Howard government, enforced his patriarchy on the women of Australia to deny them control over their own bodies, by blocking their access to drug RU486.

  6. [I am enjoying watching Harry potter DVD. snakes feature heavily. I really dont like snakes!!!]
    Snakes are OK. It’s just that puff adders . . . . . . . .

  7. Gusface@6851

    george

    as a newly minted 6.5 stars generals, you have been thru your first engagement

    not without a hiccup or two may I add

    Ron has very firm ideas on 6.5 stars generals.

    Only Ron can infere 6.5 stars generals and he says they *only* go to greens.

    Labor are Labor and George IS Labor.

    Labor don’t need any 6.5 stars generals

  8. [most of the protagonists have known each other thru PB for years]

    I didn’t even know what PB was until this year…

  9. A little OT but whenever I feel a bit despondent about polls and all the crap in the media with its shock-jock “reporting” and stunts, I often think of the last couple of verses of the poet Arthur Hugh Clough’s, “Say not the struggle naught availeth.”

    For while the tired waves, vainly breaking,
    Seem here no painful inch to gain,
    Far back, through creeks and inlets making,
    Comes silent, flooding in, the main.

    And not by eastern windows only,
    When daylight comes, comes in the light;
    In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly!
    But westward, look, the land is bright!

    That’s where we are heading under this Government, notwithstanding all the ammo thrown at it by a Liberal compliant media.

    Anyway, just my response to all the media comments about stabbing, coups, betrayal – hell, just insert any number of emotive words here – that have been proliferating today.

  10. One final observation:

    Even back then commentators were calling the then Deputy PM ‘Julia’. Grahame Morris seems to be a serial offender.

  13. [It was only 45 years ago that women had to resign from the Federal Public Service upon marriage and a mere 5 years since Tony Abbott, Health Minister in the Howard government, enforced his patriarchy on the women of Australia to deny them control over their own bodies, by blocking their access to drug RU486.]

    That is pathetic on Abbott’s behalf. If women want to terminate their own pregnancy (preferably during the first trimester) then why not? it isn’t fair, especially on women who are pregnant because of rape. Lack of “Pro- Choice” much, Abbott!

  14. [Ron has very firm ideas on 6.5 stars generals.

    Only Ron can infere 6.5 stars generals and he says they *only* go to greens.

    Labor are Labor and George IS Labor.

    Labor don’t need any 6.5 stars generals]

    Dave, I already told Gus I was a Roman soldier from Syria Palaestina, but he anointed me a general nevertheless – I have received my stars, I am not returning them!

  15. dave

    you spoling for a fight

    ps ron said we were 3 stars

    I gave us all battlefield promotions to 6.5 stars generals, now we can promote who we like when we like

    🙂

  16. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

    latikambourke | 43 seconds ago
    Nick Minchin: ‘that is an utterly false and scurrilous allegation. There is no such deal, and it is offensive to Mr Stockdale…’

    That confirms it.

    Reithy is the kind of palm-greasing, lurk merchant who’d climb in through the bathroom window even if the front door had been left wide open with a sign saying “Please burglarize our house (money is in the third drawer)” stitched into the welcome mat.]

    I’m probably alone on this one, but I think it would help Labor if Reith got up. Of course, he’s a lot punchier than Stockdale who seems to come from the Truss school of charisma.

    But what he would bring is a lot of baggage from the Howard Years. Aside from the 3-word slogans, Abbott’s other pitch (in my view, self-deluded) is that people are nostalgically longing for a return to the Good Old Days of Howard. Some probably do, forgetting most of the ugly things. Enter Peter Reith as a reminder.

    At the height of the Waterfront dispute, a letter-writer claimed that Reith only needed a handlebar moustache to take on the role of Music Hall Villain. Maybe there’s a few Liberal supporters that like him, like they enjoy a thug in their own footy team while booing their opponent’s baddy. He has more charm than Howard did but most are still repelled by his style.

    And his record is a dream. The Waterfront debacle alone is worth it. Julie Bishop (what a gift she is for Labor) said today (in answer to those worrying about Workchoices damage) that Reith had left politics (for a $250,000 sinecure given by Howard) by the time of Workchoices. True. But everything about workchoices seems to be personified by Reith, And the Waterfront dispute, the Workchoices predecessor, was an exoensive flop which should have cost them the 98 election but for Beazley’s timidity.

    And of course there’s Children Overboard and the Nauru Solution, Reith heavily involved. Add his son’s misuse of his mobile (which oddly caused him the most trouble) and you have Abbott’s second dream falling apart.

    Between that and Labor chalking up results, I’d think things were getting dangerous for Abbott.

  17. [I gave us all battlefield promotions to 6.5 stars generals, now we can promote who we like when we like]

    so there!

  18. [That is one of the reasons Julia Gillard will go down in history as one of the most incredible women this country has seen. Whoever comes after her as the second female Australian PM will be standing on the shoulders of an amazing woman. ]

    Puff:

    I believe it will go further. I believe we will look back at the sheer vitriol and misogyny and hatred directed towards her and marvel at how well she handled it all.

  21. Gusface

    William had called out evan as a troll. The revelations last night was mere confirmation. Yet he is back on here today playing his silly game. i dont care if he hates Labor and our PM, but dont keep pretending. It is offensive

  24. [it was PB unplugged

    last night was tame compared to some doozies]
    Yeah, like that time Frank was defending people who protect sex offenders, and his main argument was that the W.A. police covers up cases of child sexual abuse, which he supported by pointing to absolutely nothing.

  25. Apple:

    On the RU486 thing, Howard intervened in Abbott’s decision to centralise RU486 approval in the Minister’s office, by allowing a conscience vote in parliament to remove approval from the MInister’s discretion.

    The vote passed, and hence RU486 is available to Australian women.

  27. [ShowsOn

    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    it was PB unplugged

    last night was tame compared to some doozies

    Yeah, like that time Frank was defending people who protect sex offenders, and his main argument was that the W.A. police covers up cases of child sexual abuse, which he supported by pointing to absolutely nothing.
    ]

    Rubbish.

  29. That is one of the reasons Julia Gillard will go down in history as one of the most incredible women this country has seen. Whoever comes after her as the second female Australian PM will be standing on the shoulders of an amazing woman.

    Puff – excellent comments and spot on.

    Julia will come through this and will have lead a reforming Labor government, irrespective of Polls, Elections or newspaper proprietors political preferences.

    I believe history will remember her most favourably.

    I am not saying Labor will win in 2013, I hope and think they will.
    I do not say everything Labor does is perfect.
    I do not say that Gillard is invincible or never wrong.

    I do say Gillard Labor and prior to that Rudd Labor is trying to bring in important changes that will benefit most Australians and over big money vested interests in many areas of the economy.

    I say Labor, even with its faults is better by far that the alternatives.

  30. shows

    or when you went on how i bashed my wife

    even tho i said that it was offensive, you seemed to get some sick thrill out of it

    It sure does take all types ……

  31. GD

    I said today that if Reith got the gig, he would be a thorn in Abbott’s side. No wonder Minchin is peeved.

  32. [The vote passed, and hence RU486 is available to Australian women.]

    It’s more or less Abbott’s view on the whole thing I was talking about.

    Either way, not a fan of the man to be begin with.

  33. [Gusface
    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 8:38 pm | Permalink
    charlton

    most of the protagonists have known each other thru PB for years

    if anything it lets off steam

    after all we are all adults here?]

    That might explain it but does it excuse it?

    I wonder how some of the female bloggers felt about it – a rhetorical question as we’d probably never know.

    But in any event given your familiarity with this site and my relative unfamiliarity, I’ll leave it at that.

  36. [Think Big
    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 5:07 pm | Permalink

    Their ABC

    SimonBanksHBSimon Banks

    Looking forward to Capitol Hill on #abcNews24 at 5.30pm this afternoon with @lyndalcurtis and @ianhanke of the HR Nicholls Society.

    @Thought4rceThink Big

    @SimonBanksHB @lyndalcurtis @ianhanke @AndrewBGreene HR Nicholls? Goodness me was no-one at all from the IPA available? ]

    I’d forgotten about Mr Hanke. Straight from “South Park”?

  37. As a councillor, I was invited to an Apex dinner a few years ago (as in about four).

    Sitting at a table with men and their wives, I assumed that it was a normal Apex function….

    ….until the guest speaker got up and congratulated the local Apex for not being ‘mixed’ and said that once organisations became ‘mixed’ that they went down hill, because women………..

    Sexism is alive and very well, and women who take leadership positions are still seen as ‘unnatural’ by some (and probably even by those who don’t think that they think that way, if you get what I mean).

    Strong women, who dare to stand up to men, are even worse, of course.

    And strong successful women – well, that’s a crime against nature.

    (Only the other day I heard a woman caller on radio saying that women are illogical creatures and thus unfit to make major decisions. I’m sure a lot of men of her generation agree with her, but don’t say so publically….)

  43. the wise elder has spoken

    MICHELLEGRATTAN | 5 minutes ago
    [anniversary over, thank god. Lib presidency over tomorrow. Is that what they call clear air?]

  44. Thanks Gus,

    but can a 6.5 stars generals be a minister for ice cream

    oh well, why not!!

    I would give you some of the Rum and Raisin, but it might be seen as cash-for-comments.

  46. [Either way, not a fan of the man to be begin with.]

    I don’t know many women who are. 🙂

    Certainly none of us women PBers are fans. Which reminds me that there are male Liberal commenters (Glen, GP), but no women Liberals. Is this right?

  47. [As Minister for Ice-cream responsible for Quality Control, on PB tonight I am making other PBers live up to their responsibilities by sampling Golden North Honey ice-cream. ]
    Puff
    It’s beyond doubt. This is the best commercially supermarket available ice cream available.
    Bar none!!

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