Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

More confirmation Labor’s position has worsened from the 54-46 plateau it settled upon after the carbon tax was introduced, this time from Essential Research. Bernard Keane of Crikey reports the poll has the Coalition’s lead increasing from 54-46 to 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote down two points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Other results:

Asked which option from the major parties they prefer on transferring asylum seekers, only 16% of voters preferred Malaysia, compared to 34% for Nauru; 30% said they didn’t like either. Even Greens voters preferred Nauru (12%) over Malaysia (9%) — possibly because Nauru was a guarantee of asylum seekers eventually being moved back to Australia — and 34% of Labor voters didn’t like either solution, compared to 29% for Malaysia.

There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.

The live cattle export industry itself also retains public support, with only 22% favouring a full ban on live exports and 58% wanting the trade restricted to countries that treat cattle humanely. Support for live exporting of cattle no matter how they were treated was strongest among Liberal voters, at 19%.

There were also questions on the impact of the mining boom. The full report should be with you shortly. UPDATE: Here it is.

Other news/speculative rumour-peddling:

• Next month’s NSW Labor state conference will vote on a proposal to include open primaries as part of its preselection procedures for five mayoralty elections, including for the lord mayoralties of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with a view to repeating the process for five state seats before the 2015 election (one of which will be Newcastle, which the Liberals won for the first time in March). The plan is more radical than that put forward in the federal election review conducted by Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, proposing that primaries account for 50 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the total vote (except where there is a sitting Labor member), with the remainder to be determined in the usual fashion by party members and unions. The idea has been endorsed by the Prime Minister and state secretary Sam Dastyari and has the backing of the Right faction. However, it is opposed by the Left which sees the trial measure as a sop to quell discontent over rejection of proposals to allow rank-and-file members greater say in filling party administrative positions and delegates to national and state conferences.

• Meanwhile, Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Victorian Labor’s review of last year’s state election is likely to give the thumbs-down to the idea of primaries, citing an underwhelming response to a trial run for the Liberal-held seat of Kilsyth before the election.

• Also talking about primaries is Peter Reith, who made a similar recommendation that of Bracks/Carr/Faulkner in the federal election review he conducted for the Liberal Party, and who will shortly challenge Alan Stockdale for the party’s national presidency.

• Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection, following weekend reports he was sizing up Attorney-General Robert McClelland’s seat of Barton or Daryl Melham’s seat of Banks. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian quotes Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”

• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,924 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria 6795,

    spot on.

    Knew this all was coming so stocked my house with lollies, chips, dvd’s and good books to pass the time.

    Just popped in between ‘ Blade runner ” and “4 weddings and a funeral “to see what was happening.

    Plan to come out of hibenation on THursday, Friday next week.

    It is all soo yesterday ! Back to Hugh Grant and my favourite movie now.

  3. poroti@6787
    I too was dissappointed at how it ended for Rudd , I still am in awe of his parting speech and the way in which he showed up for parliament the next day.
    Took real guts .
    I think he is sincere when he says it still hurts , and why would’nt he….losing the
    PMship can’t be all that easy…
    He always puts the party first and is a fine FM.
    PM Gillard is a fabulous prime minister..the labor party is lucky to have such talent.

  4. Simon Banks from Hawker Britton, The ALP Special Minister of State (can’t remember his name) Ian Haine from the ALP party machine.

  9. victoria,

    I am watching Harry too. The Goblet of Fire, cuddled up on the lounge with my kids and the laptop.

  10. And indeed the transition turned out nothing to do with the benefit of the party or the country nor was it necessary. It was all about a selfish pointless power grab by a few men and a woman, a long time in the making, making a joke of the Party.

    And Gillard’s subsequent dog whistling, Pacific solution, kicking of the unemployed and so on takes Labor over to the right and into a shadow Liberal Party. The only option for Labor voters now is to vote Greens or independents, rather than continue to support the transition of Labor into some poor Liberal Party copy.

    And I wonder if it is time for the creation of another party out some of the existing MPs of Labor. I wonder if there are any there that would be in a break away new party.

    My dear little wife is still riled at Labor, saying they have made a joke of democracy, where Australia voted for the PM they wanted and a few men can simply change that overwhelming will.

    Maybe Kev can create a new political party for Qld that would replace ‘Labor’. 🙂

  11. poroti 6797,

    Agreed.

    Some people take a long time to find where they fit in life. Once they find it life is just so comfortable.

    I think Kev has found it. Good luck to him.

    He is a very good FM and Julia is a very good PM.

    Off to 4 Weddings now.

    cheers to all.

  13. Boerwar
    Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 5:18 pm | Permalink
    [Oh dear, Mr Pegasus is doing holier-than-thou.]
    Sets the tone with an ad hominem attack.

    I said: ‘All refugees who seek asylum are in fear of their lives..’
    [Basically, not true. For example, our family were political refugees in one context and economic refugees in another context. Our lives may have been marginally in danger in the political context. IMHO, this bit of dishonest sleight-of-hand is at the root of much of the distrust about asylum seekers.]
    Redefines ‘refugee’ and ‘asylum seeker’.

    Perhaps I needed to qualify my shorthand description with UNHCR’s definitions so that there would be no understanding about who I was concerned with.

    1. Refugees include individuals recognized under the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees; its 1967 Protocol; the 1969 OAU Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa; those recognized in accordance with the UNHCR Statute; individuals granted complementary forms of protection;(38) or, those enjoying temporary protection.(39) The refugee population also includes people in a refugee-like situation.

    2. Asylum-seekers are individuals who have sought international protection and whose claims for refugee status have not yet been determined. Those covered in this report refer to claimants whose individual applications were pending at the end of 2010, irrespective of when they may have been lodged.

    I said: ‘…and will use whatever means are at their disposal to flee to a place of safety.’
    [If you are an economic refugee that does not necessarily follow. See above. Again, dishonest.]
    I was not talking about economic refugees as is made clear by “who seek asylum are in fear of their lives “ and “fleeing to a place of safety”.

    These are the people I was referring to as refugees. Are they economic refugees? Why would they become refugees? Could it be they are fleeing from war, conflict and persecution?

    1. Afghan refugees (3 million
    2. Iraqi refugees (1.7 million)
    3. Somali refugees (770,200)
    4. Congolese refugees (476,000)
    5. Refugees from Myanmar (415,700)
    6. Colombian refugees (395, 600)
    7. Sudanese refugees (387,200)

    8. More than 15,500 asylum applications were lodged by unaccompanied or separated children in 69 countries in 2010. The applications came mostly from Afghan and Somali children.

    [BTW, is there some sort of moral benchmark for how many we should take? I imagine that, with a concerted effort, we could empty Malaysia of its 90,000, and then still have the logistics for transporting and accepting several million more by emptying the camps in Africa alone.]
    Finishes with a hyperbolic straw man.

  17. Doyley@6791
    Yes Doyley agree.
    Its fun watching them change tack whenever she outsmarts them and doesn’t buckle.
    They really don’t like her because she won’t and shouldn’t play their game…in a funny sort of way she’s got the better of them already.

  19. [
    FOREIGN Minister Kevin Rudd will meet Burma’s pro-democracy figure Aung San Suu Kyi when he visits the country next week.

    During the visit, which will be the first by an Australian foreign minister since 2002, Mr Rudd will have discussions with members of Burma’s new government along with leaders across the political spectrum including Nobel Peace laureate Ms Suu Kyi.

    “I will use these meetings to reiterate Australia’s long-standing calls for genuine progress towards national reconciliation and democratic reform, Mr Rudd said in a media release today.

    “This visit comes at a critical juncture in Burma’s history and will allow the Australian government to assess how it can best support reform and economic development.”]

    Wot he should be crying about being boned.

  21. ruawake 6813,

    Only the red ones.

    I am 55 and the lady at the corner shop just shakes her head at me.

    I like red snakes and I am proud.

    Off for good this time !

  22. George

    Can I ask you a serious question

    “Why do you come here?

    Do you need a hug? That’s why I come here – who the f are you BTW?

  23. Thomas Paine@6811

    The only option for Labor voters now is to vote Greens or independents, rather than continue to support the transition of Labor into some poor Liberal Party copy.

    Thomas Paine
    Posted Saturday, June 26, 2010 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    Must admit I voted for Howard the first time around.

  28. Thomas Paine @ 6811:

    [where Australia voted for the PM they wanted and a few men can simply change that overwhelming will.]

    Voters decide who is PM(?).

  30. I think Hockey will watch this one with interest…

    KFC, Sizzler owner to tap investor appetite
    June 24, 2011 – 4:36PM

    Australian fast-food group Collins Foods, owned by private equity firm Pacific Equity Partners, has decided to test the market for an initial share offering, according to two sources, with one expecting the size to be about $250 million.

    Deutsche Bank and UBS have been appointed as joint lead managers to float the firm, which manages KFC and Sizzler restaurants , and analysts have begun premarketing the deal to investors, one source with direct knowledge of the situation said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/kfc-sizzler-owner-to-tap-investor-appetite-20110624-1gj79.html#ixzz1QBglFpNm

  32. They are about to replay the late night Rudd presser on Apac. Looking back you see things you didn’t see at the time.

    1. commentators universally declared Rudd finished as PM, saying he had killed off his own PMship with poor management and a series of stumbles when it came to his colleagues. Even the GetUp guy said he was gone.

    2. commentators universally agreed Rudd should make the transition to Gillard easier by appearing with her and resigning the PMship on the grounds he didn’t have the numbers. They said that failure to do this would mean Gillard would struggle to have legitimacy into the future.

  35. Showing the Rudd presser now.

    Once again, things you don’t notice: Rudd talking about govt achievements that he should’ve been talking about way before his Removal.

  39. [6.5s don’t cry unless they are watching 7.]

    I came across others using a similar term. What does that mean?

  40. Dee

    As I know I have said before the fact that JG does not dangle is only a very small part of the reason she is not “cutting through”. TP with Cassandra’s skill was spot on 1 year ago.

    Now maybe, just maybe the electorate is less forgiving of a women for being devious than they are of a man (Carmen Lawrence etc did what any male polly would have done but a higher standard was expected). The stupidity of JG’s advisors was that they did not foretell this. Not sure what they expected. Disunity is death. Everyone involved took a credibility hit but Julia took he most partly because she was a female and partly because she got to be PM.

    However it is not much use saying it is all because she is a woman – still need to find a way of overcoming this.

  47. daretotread
    [However it is not much use saying it is all because she is a woman – still need to find a way of overcoming this.]
    Of course the leadership ascension hysteria is all about the lack of a toggle.
    Other issues don’t come into it.
    Deviousness is something Rabbott & his media flunkies have created &exploited to great effect.
    Look! You refer to it as being fact.

    Back later!

  49. Gusface @ 6846:

    [Posted Friday, June 24, 2011 at 8:31 pm | Permalink
    vic george

    no it wasnt

    it was PB unplugged

    last night was tame compared to some doozie]

    You mean it can get worse?

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