More confirmation Labor’s position has worsened from the 54-46 plateau it settled upon after the carbon tax was introduced, this time from Essential Research. Bernard Keane of Crikey reports the poll has the Coalition’s lead increasing from 54-46 to 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote down two points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Other results:
Asked which option from the major parties they prefer on transferring asylum seekers, only 16% of voters preferred Malaysia, compared to 34% for Nauru; 30% said they didn’t like either. Even Greens voters preferred Nauru (12%) over Malaysia (9%) — possibly because Nauru was a guarantee of asylum seekers eventually being moved back to Australia — and 34% of Labor voters didn’t like either solution, compared to 29% for Malaysia.
There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.
The live cattle export industry itself also retains public support, with only 22% favouring a full ban on live exports and 58% wanting the trade restricted to countries that treat cattle humanely. Support for live exporting of cattle no matter how they were treated was strongest among Liberal voters, at 19%.
There were also questions on the impact of the mining boom. The full report should be with you shortly. UPDATE: Here it is.
Other news/speculative rumour-peddling:
• Next month’s NSW Labor state conference will vote on a proposal to include open primaries as part of its preselection procedures for five mayoralty elections, including for the lord mayoralties of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with a view to repeating the process for five state seats before the 2015 election (one of which will be Newcastle, which the Liberals won for the first time in March). The plan is more radical than that put forward in the federal election review conducted by Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, proposing that primaries account for 50 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the total vote (except where there is a sitting Labor member), with the remainder to be determined in the usual fashion by party members and unions. The idea has been endorsed by the Prime Minister and state secretary Sam Dastyari and has the backing of the Right faction. However, it is opposed by the Left which sees the trial measure as a sop to quell discontent over rejection of proposals to allow rank-and-file members greater say in filling party administrative positions and delegates to national and state conferences.
• Meanwhile, Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Victorian Labor’s review of last year’s state election is likely to give the thumbs-down to the idea of primaries, citing an underwhelming response to a trial run for the Liberal-held seat of Kilsyth before the election.
• Also talking about primaries is Peter Reith, who made a similar recommendation that of Bracks/Carr/Faulkner in the federal election review he conducted for the Liberal Party, and who will shortly challenge Alan Stockdale for the party’s national presidency.
• Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection, following weekend reports he was sizing up Attorney-General Robert McClelland’s seat of Barton or Daryl Melham’s seat of Banks. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian quotes Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”
• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.
Pebbles is right about the plebiscite. At this point Labor should just ignore the polls and focus on introducing waht it has said it will do (i.e. a Carbon tax). If you pay too much attention to the polls Labor will get blamed for that too.
[Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection]
Good. I think that would’ve been a mistake.
Peter Beattie needs to retire gracefully.
Have there been any reports of the multi party climate meeting over the weekend? I don’t recall seeing any.
Regarding the live cattle ban (which I was pleased with 🙂 )
[There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.]
The easiest way the government can avoid that one is to ask: where will we cut to pay for it? Or what tax shall we raise to pay for it? Or is raising the debt OK?
IMO the cattle industry has no case for compensation. They were allowed to operate a business under certain conditions. They failed to meet those conditions. Ergo, they stop the business.
Is Mr Beattie trying to get rid of Mr Rudd so that Mr Beattie can run in Mr Rudd’s seat?
confessions
Not sure if I heard corectly, but I got the impression from Oakey and Windsor at their presser, that there were weekend discussions. They were now awaiting Further details from Combet because there were further talks with the Greens. Dont hold me to it, but that is what ai thought I heard.
Is the language Mr Iemma used to explain why he wouldn’t do something useful for Labor?
confessions
There was supposed to be an all-day meeting on Saturday. Some positions were put on the table that were a long way apart. The meeting broke up around lunch time.
The Independents then flew back to their electorates.
I assume that Mr Combet would thereafter have been doing some ringing around but have not heard anything concrete.
I wouldnt mind Beattie running for the seat of Brisbane. Let him try and win a marginal seat.
55:45 a beautiful set of numbers. Much better than that other lot, IMHO.
Thanks for that victoria.
These negotiations are inching along at a snail’s pace! It’s torturous.
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 1:15 pm | Permalink
Is Mr Beattie trying to get rid of Mr Rudd so that Mr Beattie can run in Mr Rudd’s seat?]
Yes, it was reported in the media yesterday, but maybe only QLD.
It was said wwtte that Beattie hates Rudd because of the former’s close relationship with Goss.
confessions
Dont know if these are just delaying tactics by all parties concerned, or real dispute by the parties on the policy.
Thanks Boerwar. 🙂
TPP of 55:45: Some proof that the Nielsen may have been rogue.
charlton
Ah.
Charlton, I suggest “yes” is an overstatement. One newspaper report has attributed the notion to an unidentified source.
[mikestuchbery Mike Stuchbery
by geeksrulz
Today, I call on Australians to put $5 through a shredder & their watches in the bin to commemorate the LNP’s time & money-wasting stunts.
]
[BrigadierSlog Brigadier Slog
Who’s gonna tell Katter? RT @gordongraham: #Essential Suspension of live exports to Indonesia: Support 58%, Oppose 28% #auspol
]
I can confirm that I was not the unidentified source.
[Danny Lewis
Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 1:10 pm | Permalink
Peter Beattie needs to retire gracefully.]
Beattie at 58 is still young enough for politics.
I think he should stand for a seat currently held by the Tories, as there is still a residual liking for him in Queensland and he’s very media savvy.
Socrates, cattle farmers had to pay, by virtue of government fiat, a fee to MLA to ensure cattle were treated humanely.
MLA failed to do their job, so they should reimburse farmers for the hardship caused as a result of the ban.
victoria:
I hope it’s the former not the latter.
Thanks, Charlton. I thought he was a lot older than that.
In that case, yes. But he should stand for a marginal Liberal seat.
No 21
Beattie is less objectionable than Rudd, if he’s going for Griffith that is.
[William Bowe
Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 1:23 pm | Permalink
Charlton, I suggest “yes” is an overstatement. One newspaper report has attributed the notion to an unidentified source.]
Yes, I see my mistake.
I meant to have said it has been reported.
GP
The farmers, through the MLA, should reimburse farmers for the hardship caused by the MLA to:
(1) cattle being tortured?
(2) a government being bastardised by yet another private sector industry that has failed to regulate itself properly?
(3) us punters who have to put with yet another shambles created by yet another private sector industry?
(4) all of the above?
Socrates, that Reggie Brown piece was a classic
What is the point of having organisations like the MLA and AWB if the government can’t trust them to do their jobs without stuffing up or turning a blind eye to cruelty or corruption?
If the blame is going to be sheeted home to the government anyway, why not cut out the middle man and put every part of the food export market under the direct responsibility of Department of Industry and Trade?
Brown on the Plebescite presser.
No 29
You say that as if the Government is immune to corruption and cruelty. Cf pink batts electrician deaths and multiple warnings received by Garrett. Cf Lindsay Tanner “didn’t have time to cross t’s and dot i’s”
Just a bit more on this matter discussed earlier this morning –
Have just caught up a bit on some reading. The ABS reported retail sector employment rose by 6800 in the 6 months to May, seasonally adjusted, taking retail employment job growth in the last 12 months to more than 35,000.
So while the likes of Krispy Kreme, Allied Brands,Borders, Colorado, Angus & Robertson have laid staff off, many others are continuing to expand and recruit.
The report above re Westfield was an extract from the OO, so they can’t even now report accurately on business matters.
Beattie has probably left his run too late. 2007 would probably have been the ideal opportunity. However, it would have meant handing over the levers of power for status uncertainty.
GP @ 22
One of the few times I agree with you! However, I bet you thought MLA was a government body. It’s actually a producer owned company – so it’s the producers using their contingency fund to manage the problem, as it should be.
Shorter Mr Brown:
‘rack off on the plebiscite stunt’.
Now on live trade: Does not agree with Mr Wilkie and Mr Katter on any possible resumption of the live trade.
Has the live cattle trade shot itself in the hooves? tick.
Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey:
[Labor needs to shut up at the moment, and it can’t stop talking. Gillard didn’t need to to conduct any anniversary interviews; her office could have simply said she’s getting on with the task of implementing major reform and not interested in indulging in anniversaries. One thing Rudd’s PMO was good at was knowing when to go quiet- – usually when the Liberals were making a spectacle of themselves and Labor wanted the media to focus exclusively on Brendan and Malcolm or Malcolm and Tony. Instead, Labor now has logorrhoea, and apparently wants the spotlight kept exclusively on its own problems.]
When Labor are talking about themselves they aren’t talking about the imperative of pricing our GHGEs.
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
charlton
Ah.]
‘Ah’ – am I to interpret that I was stating the bleeding obvious?
I’m not having a good day today.
Maybe I should stop while I’m behind.
Hi Pebbs,
The crazy part of Moany Tony’s plebiscite idea is that he said only a ‘no’ result should be acted upon and if the answer is a majority of ‘yes’ he won’t take any notice of it.
The man is unferretting believable!
Somehow I doubt Beattie is that interested in being an Opposition member in the federal parliament.
Insulation industry self-regulation? Could not be trusted.
Building industry self-regulation? Could not be trusted.
Financial industry self-regulation? Could not be trusted.
Banking industry self-regulation? Could not be trusted.
Live cattle industry self-regulation? Could not be trusted.
Spot the pattern.
shellbell@28
Pity there is not a tape of it.
One issue that never seems to get discussed in the retail “debate” is whether this country has just too much retail capacity – are there too many shops in established areas which just cannot absorb any more floor space without seriously cannibalising other players in the area.
Any thoughts anyone?
charlton
I use ‘ah’ as shorthand for ‘ah, I see.’ aka, a moment of illumination.
Bob Brown looking very pleased on Sky at the moment when talking about the carbon price. I reckon the deal’s done.
ajm
He is chipper, but all the indications are that the deal is not done.
bbs
The market will decide that one…
Very complex answer, IMHO, and changing all the time. For example, retail over the web is already changing warehousing and distribution patterns significantly for some items.
Mr Brown has just said the committee talks are continuing. Mr Brown says that progress has some way to go.
Boerwar@40
What about media self-regulation? Hows that going?
Leaving aside 2GB polls and other interest group polls, is there a poll from the majors that can be described as the “roguest”?
I was thinking of the 2001 Federal Election as maybe the source of such a poll and came accross some more work of Andrew Leigh which might be of interest:
[PDF] Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections: Lessons from 2001
ShiftyPhil
True, true.