Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

More confirmation Labor’s position has worsened from the 54-46 plateau it settled upon after the carbon tax was introduced, this time from Essential Research. Bernard Keane of Crikey reports the poll has the Coalition’s lead increasing from 54-46 to 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote down two points to 32 per cent, the Coalition up one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Other results:

Asked which option from the major parties they prefer on transferring asylum seekers, only 16% of voters preferred Malaysia, compared to 34% for Nauru; 30% said they didn’t like either. Even Greens voters preferred Nauru (12%) over Malaysia (9%) — possibly because Nauru was a guarantee of asylum seekers eventually being moved back to Australia — and 34% of Labor voters didn’t like either solution, compared to 29% for Malaysia.

There was better news for Labor on live exports, with strong support for its suspension of exports to Indonesia — 58-28% — with even Liberal voters overcoming their distaste for all things this government does to prefer it. But there’s even stronger support for compensation for the cattle industry — 61-21% — despite revelations the industry has long known of problems with the treatment of Australian cattle.

The live cattle export industry itself also retains public support, with only 22% favouring a full ban on live exports and 58% wanting the trade restricted to countries that treat cattle humanely. Support for live exporting of cattle no matter how they were treated was strongest among Liberal voters, at 19%.

There were also questions on the impact of the mining boom. The full report should be with you shortly. UPDATE: Here it is.

Other news/speculative rumour-peddling:

• Next month’s NSW Labor state conference will vote on a proposal to include open primaries as part of its preselection procedures for five mayoralty elections, including for the lord mayoralties of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong, with a view to repeating the process for five state seats before the 2015 election (one of which will be Newcastle, which the Liberals won for the first time in March). The plan is more radical than that put forward in the federal election review conducted by Steve Bracks, Bob Carr and John Faulkner, proposing that primaries account for 50 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the total vote (except where there is a sitting Labor member), with the remainder to be determined in the usual fashion by party members and unions. The idea has been endorsed by the Prime Minister and state secretary Sam Dastyari and has the backing of the Right faction. However, it is opposed by the Left which sees the trial measure as a sop to quell discontent over rejection of proposals to allow rank-and-file members greater say in filling party administrative positions and delegates to national and state conferences.

• Meanwhile, Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Victorian Labor’s review of last year’s state election is likely to give the thumbs-down to the idea of primaries, citing an underwhelming response to a trial run for the Liberal-held seat of Kilsyth before the election.

• Also talking about primaries is Peter Reith, who made a similar recommendation that of Bracks/Carr/Faulkner in the federal election review he conducted for the Liberal Party, and who will shortly challenge Alan Stockdale for the party’s national presidency.

• Morris Iemma has denied he is seeking federal preselection, following weekend reports he was sizing up Attorney-General Robert McClelland’s seat of Barton or Daryl Melham’s seat of Banks. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian quotes Iemma saying: “If I was ever interested, I wouldn’t do it by backstabbing two friends of mine.”

• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,924 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Mr Brown says that Mr Ferguson is ‘…out of touch’ and referred to ‘one just flying past now’ in response to a question about something that Mr Ferguson has said.

    Is Mr Ferguson acting as an industry spoiler for the multi-party negotiations?

  2. Boerwar,

    You may be right but I get the sense they’re down to dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s. Even though he says some way to go, I think both sides know where they’re going to end up on the price, compensation, etc. There’s a stage in any negotiation where you start to see the end point that everyone’s converging to.

  3. does anyone agree with this?

    ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 13 minutes ago
    [#auspol I am thinking all the govt has to do is sit back this week and watch the coalition try and swim]

  4. [Have there been any reports of the multi party climate meeting over the weekend? I don’t recall seeing any.]

    Has anyone asked dear Sophie about it yet?

  5. ajm
    From what Mr Brown was saying they have yet to converge on a starting price – hardly a matter of crossing tees and dotting eyes.

  6. [Colvinius Mark Colvin
    Clever hashtag on @byTonyWilson’s plea to save Chan from the firing squad by writing to SBY- #nobangbangbambang
    ]

  7. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 1:38 pm | Permalink
    charlton

    I use ‘ah’ as shorthand for ‘ah, I see.’ aka, a moment of illumination.]

    In view of that I’ll soldier on.

  8. Boerwar

    Sorry. I understand that Bob Brown is happy to be part of the main game. But do you sense an agreement is not too far away?

  9. Brown says there is still a long way to go in negotiations. I hope not.

    Windsor and Oakey say that if the MPCC doesn’t come to an agreement they can have a conscience vote on the floor of the House. Good luck with that one. A bit idealistic to think any of the Nats or Libs will cross the floor on that but TW seems to think they would.

  10. Shifty Phil

    What about media self-regulation? Hows that going?

    About as well as my dietary self-regulation.

  11. [From what Mr Brown was saying they have yet to converge on a starting price – hardly a matter of crossing tees and dotting eyes.]

    Great. At this rate we’ll have the details at christmas!

  12. victoria,

    I would go so far as to say this discussion has been deliberately ‘timetabled’ to be resolved after the 1st July.

  13. Bob Brown originally let slip that the Greens won’t get what they want or what they think is best.

    He later went on to say there is some way to go.

    Did anyone else here the first answer?

  14. SK

    That is what I have been thinking. Combet has been saying for sometime that an agreement would be reached by end of June early July.

  15. how about tony abbott’s self regulation?

    I think he’s overstepped himself on the plebiscite – surely we can all point and laugh at the absurdity and I think the “longest dummy spit in political history” line will find traction. However he does seem to have a teflon coat (or does shit just no show up if you’re made of the stuff?)

  16. I got the impression he was saying that 100% of something, is better than 0% of nothing.

    He had a long pause before saying we have to save the earth.

  17. [From what Mr Brown was saying they have yet to converge on a starting price ]
    It has been pretty obvious to me for most of this year that it will be at something slightly under $20 a tonne, which is at the low end of expectations and probably about $10 a tonne less than what the Greens want.

  18. William

    cf the Essential polling:

    The really interesting finding is the very large disparity between those who think they are benefiting from the mining boom and those who do not. Methinks there is a useful starting point for Labor in marketing the MRT.

    The wording of the questions on climate science seems to have skewed the outcomes, IMHO.

  19. [heard that too. He did say that]

    Victoria

    Thanks. I think the negotaions are very close, but he realised what he had said and then started backtracking.

  20. [What is the point of having organisations like the MLA and AWB if the government can’t trust them to do their jobs without stuffing up or turning a blind eye to cruelty or corruption?]

    DannyL – Agree with that and I wonder why the Govt. hasn’t gone harder on the MLA. I know they have to work with the MLA to get things running properly but surely they don’t need to hold back on apportioning the blame properly.

    Charlton – great idea for that loudmouth Beattie. Let him stand in a marginal Liberal seat and work hard if he wants the job.

    Beattie’s mea culpas were the inspiration for Labor apologising for the HIP. They didn’t realise that Qlders were sick of Beattie’s apologies. I can’t bear the thought of another Labor pollie apologising for anything they thought was right in the first place.

  21. victoria
    In terms of an agreement Mr Brown was sticking with the end of July self-imposed deadline. This is a nice gesture, IMHO, because the Greens have more to gain in negotiations by hanging out than does Labor.

  22. [• In other speculative Premier comeback news, The Australian reports a “Queensland caucus source” says Peter Beattie is known to have been “sniffing around” for a seat in federal parliament, and had “spoken to people about Brisbane and Griffith”. ]

    Blimey! Beattie has been all over the media this morning calling for Kevin Rudd to resign from Parliament and from the Labor Party.

    My thoughts were that Coalition supporting Corporate interests had bought him off because I could only see advantage to the Opposition from such a move. ie; The seat of Griffith, if won by the Libs in a bye-election, would mean that Abbott would become PM.

    It never entered my head that Beattie would have the audacity to believe that he could replace Rudd as the Labor Member for Griffith.

    How remiss of me, not to realise that Beattie is not only capable of such a scheme, it is right up there with many of his other batty ideas.

    PB’ers should be even more wary of engaging in the bring down Julia Gillard through Kevin Rudd campaign. It seems that other vested interests are taking advantage of the Liberal Party/MSM campaign too.

  23. ShowsOn
    .
    My guess is $25 a ton. Half way between a Greens wish for a start at $40 and that business group’s call for $10. Also by “chance” it is what the original ETS evisioned as the starting price and what all the modelling had been done on.

  24. [AshGhebranious AshGhebranious
    #auspol Abbott calls for plebiscite…. A cunning stunt from a stunning *beeeeep*
    ]

  25. ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 3 minutes ago
    [#auspol Tony Abbott wants the people to make a conscience vote but refuses to let his party do the same #Fail #plebiscitegate]

  26. [TPP of 55:45: Some proof that the Nielsen may have been rogue.]
    no proof at all this poll is and accumulation of two weeks and hence a small total move may mask a large weekly move

  27. [I got the impression he was saying that 100% of something, is better than 0% of nothing.]

    My post didn’t make sense. a certain percentage of something, is better than 0% of nothing.

  28. [One issue that never seems to get discussed in the retail “debate” is whether this country has just too much retail capacity – are there too many shops in established areas which just cannot absorb any more floor space without seriously cannibalising other players in the area.

    Any thoughts anyone?]

    blackburnpseph – most definitely. In the two main towns in my area both had terrific street shopping and 1 large shopping mall. We now have 2 large malls and the street shopping has gone down hill with quite a few empty shops. Rents are far too high for every shop. It’s stupid in small communities where the incomes are not enormous.

    I was glad to hear that retail is now looking at ‘order on the net and pick up’ shopping – or delivery for a fee. That is a good step. I’d love to grocery shop on the web and then just pick it up.

  29. [no proof at all this poll is and accumulation of two weeks and hence a small total move may mask a large weekly move]
    It would have to be bloody large to get it up to 59 -41.

  30. [[no proof at all this poll is and accumulation of two weeks and hence a small total move may mask a large weekly move]]

    [It would have to be bloody large to get it up to 59 -41.]

    MOE around 3% it can get very close with moderate to large move

  31. [What about media self-regulation? Hows that going?]

    shiftyphil – we’re working on that. We’re calling for a plebiscite to dislodge 70%+ ownership being in the hands of one man.

    I’ll get Abbott on to the job.

  32. [MOE around 3% it can get very close with moderate to large move]
    What about the fact that no other poll has registered a TPP anywhere near Nielsen in the last week or so?

  33. think the rogue newspoll at 51 to 49 gave possum an impression of stablisation at 54%. The government I believe has been steadily worsening follow a lot of good political short term annoucement’s followed by very bad policy

  34. BH,

    There are a few issues I see in retail.

    1. Retail Space oversupply
    2. The contractual basis on which leases signed.
    3. The nature of retailing is changing, with online influence.
    4. The end of the excessive spending and shift to saving contracting retail markets.
    5. Failure of the retail market to respond in any positive way to all of the above.

  35. [Gary
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:08 pm | Permalink
    MOE around 3% it can get very close with moderate to large move

    What about the fact that no other poll has registered a TPP anywhere near Nielsen in the last week or so?]
    Morgan posted the 59 41 result and you all cried foul and refused to believe it

  36. [PB’ers should be even more wary of engaging in the bring down Julia Gillard through Kevin Rudd campaign. It seems that other vested interests are taking advantage of the Liberal Party/MSM campaign too.]

    Scorpio – just about every Indie/Green has been asked this morning whether they will still support Labor if they change leaders. The clowns are bored and want a lot more controversy than they’ve had over the past few days.

    What is it with these ex Labor pollies. Beattie, Richardson, Cavalier, Della Bosca and few others I’ve forgotten just can’t keep their mouths closed. I bet they wouldn’t have liked it to be happening when they were in office.

  37. [ Gary
    Posted Monday, June 20, 2011 at 2:10 pm | Permalink
    very bad policy

    IYHO of course. Just what bad policy?]
    Asylum seekers… announce East Timor ……Fail
    announce Manus Island…..Fail
    Announce agreement in Malysaisa in early MAY … no agreement yet
    want more??

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