Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition

The Sydney Morning Herald reports the latest Nielsen survey has robbed a Morgan phone poll conducted a fortnight ago of its distinction as the only poll showing the Coalition’s lead reaching the heights of 59-41. Nielsen has the Labor primary vote at just 27 per cent – “the lowest level ever for a major party in the poll’s history of almost four decades” – with the Coalition at 49 per cent. No result has been provided for the Greens at this stage. Last month’s Nielsen poll had the Coalition lead at 56-44, with primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. More detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: In anticipation of a Morgan face-to-face poll which didn’t arrive, I prepared a chart earlier today showing how both Morgan face-to-face and Essential had converged upon the Newspoll trend over the last year or two after traditionally having been more favourable to Labor. I did this by producing quarterly averages for each agency’s polling going back to the start of 2009. I didn’t bother to include Nielsen as it reports far less frequently and is thus more prone to variability. But Nielsen’s habits relative to other pollsters would seem to have become a live issue as of half an hour ago, so now I have. And as you can see, Nielsen seems to have gone very sour for Labor of late: whereas the other pollsters have been broadly consistent around 54-46, the last three Nielsen results have been 56-44, 56-44 again and now 59-41. “Morgan (RA)” and “Morgan (PE)” refer to their respondent-allocated and previous-election methods of allocating minor party/independent preferences, which tells a story of its own.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports the poll has a dizzying 60 per cent now favouring Kevin Rudd for Labor leader against just 31 per cent for Julia Gillard. We are also informed the Greens primary vote is on 12 per cent, up two from last time.

UPDATE 3: It now emerges that Tony Abbott is equal with Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister on 46 per cent, the first time Abbott has achieved this. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down six to 37 per cent and her disapproval up seven to 59 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up one on approval to 46 per cent and steady on disapproval at 50 per cent. These all entail remarkably low undecided results: perhaps this is a feature of Nielsen I’ve just never noticed before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,857 comments on “Nielsen: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  1. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [Lib Sen Bill Heffernan doing his usual trick of turning up at other pollies press conf. and now asking all the questions pro-#liveexports.]

  2. ” you wouold have to ask Ms Gillard why she is not following your advice.”

    Boerwar, if you have quotes of Gillard using the term “carbon tax”, with regard to her carbon pricing policy, present them. This does not include media implication of her having said it.

  3. [10.10am Tony Abbott says the Opposition won’t adopt the Government’s carbon pricing scheme if it was put to a plebiscite and passed.
    The Opposition Leader indicated today only the Government would be bound by the result.]

    Will no one rid me of this tiresome priest?

  4. [It came close to destroying Labor’s election campaign.]
    I agree with this.
    [It is coming close to destroying a government which is trying womanfully to address the most important moral issue of our time.]
    I’m less enamoured with this argument though. Are you seriously suggesting it’s only this reason that the polls are where they are now? I reckon the CT has far more to do with it than Rudd.

  5. Victoria

    I agree with you and in my opinion Gillard is best placed to move things forward from that policy perspective. I am over it too. Just a distraction. It goes without saying that we should be having real debates on issues like carbon pricing and AS policy. Instead we have Abbott’s agenda. Frustrating.

  6. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    The Tony Abbott lead Coalition will go down in the history of Australian politics as the most self-absorbed and self-serving. #auspol
    ]

  8. Carbon Tax Carbon Tax ! Nasty Labor Carbon Tax. Soooo where do the billions of $’s for Tony’s Direct Action Plan come from I wonder? Hmmmm oh yeah taxpayers.

  9. [CameronBurge Cameron Burge
    If the media let Abbott get away with calling for a plebiscite then saying the result only counts if it suits him, you should all resign.]

  10. [Boerwar, if you have quotes of Gillard using the term “carbon tax”, with regard to her carbon pricing policy, present them. This does not include media implication of her having said it.]
    Actually Gillard at the time said it is not really a tax but you can call it that if you want to.

  11. [DenisShanahan1 Denis Shanahan
    Loving TA’s idea that a plebiscite on the CT should only be binding on the govt, and if passed he can take no notice. Our kind of democracy!]

  12. victoria

    Did you hear Abbott this morning promising Sabra Lane (I think) that he would take his same shadowy team to the next election, wtte “talented”.

  14. And of course, Tony would only allow a plebiscite if it were written so that his side would win. Rather like the polls, come to think of it.

  24. I hope the plebiscite question contains the words “carbon dioxide tax”. Maybe he could go the whole hog and mention the World Bank and how 15% of the money raised will be going to the UN.

    😀

  25. Burgey

    If it passed it will be legislation and Tony won’t have a say. Tony would be finished and the ALP would claim a big sculp. It would be the best thing to happen to Gillard.

    Gillard should opt for a plebiscite and try to load the question, it would be the best way for her to regain some traction, really 1/4 Australians voting for the ALP is horrendeous, it won’t be long before the Greens becomes the official Left wing party in Australia

  26. Suggested amendment to plebiscite question:
    “Do you prefer a user-pays system of tackling carbon emissions, or would you prefer to have your income tax doubled to pay for ‘Direct Action?'”

  27. SK, joe

    I think they’ve pulled their socks up since it was pointed out that to use “carbon tax” was playing into Coal hands.
    Sometimes I think I would make a better media advisor than the ones they have 😡

  28. [I’m just wondering how you counteract an ar.. hole going around calling it a tax whether you do or don’t. Everytime you would have to go through a long winded explanation to show it isn’t really a tax and most people wouldn’t believe you anyway. ]

    Gary – I can’t remember which journo it was who got JG to say it was a carbon tax. I think all that was needed to say was ‘we’ll have the same model as the UK and the EU. Fixed price going to an ETS – just like John Howard’s plan.’

    Did anybody call his fixed price a carbon tax – no, they called the plan an ETS from the start.

    Labor adviser’s didn’t take into account what the media and Abbott would do with the word ‘tax’. They should have told the PM to ban the word from her vocabulary. Fixed price it should be or ‘pollution fine’.

  29. Is it wishful thinking that the polls will dramatically reverse for Labor if/when a carbon price is legislated by parliament?
    We’ll see, I suppose!

  31. And frankly if she has slipped and said it once, big deal. It is a price on carbon paid by polluters. If I have offcuts from my carpentry business that I need to get a dumpster to take off to landfill that is not a “tax” but a cost of doing business.

  32. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [Animals Australia says it gave Federal Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig the footage of sheep being mis-treated in Kuwait last November.]

  33. I don’t have a difficulty with using the term ‘carbon dioxide’. It is scientifically correct.

    ‘Carbon’ is coming close to being used as a substitute shorthand for ‘carbon dioxide’.

    The Do-nothings cling to this sort of ‘issue’ as if it makes a skerrick of difference to AGW and what to do about it.

  34. [AUSTRALIA and New Zealand will today launch a statement of common intent on climate change with the long-term aim of an Australasian carbon emissions trading system. ]

    Poor Tony he can’t take a trick.

  35. Danny Lewis
    .
    “Maybe he could go the whole hog and mention the World Bank and how 15% of the money raised will be going to the UN.”
    .
    Or more fully. “15% of the money raised will be going to the UN to fund the introduction of a socialist World Government”

  36. Evan14

    “Is it wishful thinking that the polls will dramatically reverse for Labor if/when a carbon price is legislated by parliament?
    We’ll see, I suppose!”

    Yes, we will see. If they are to turn around (in respect in the Carbon price issue) it won’t been for 12 months after it is introduced, in my opinion. If there is a turn around, it would start in the run up to the election.

  37. [Animals Australia says it gave Federal Agriculture Minister Joe Ludwig the footage of sheep being mis-treated in Kuwait last November.]

    Funny given they said the footage was taken in Dec at the presser.

  40. This Rudd thing does get tedious.

    Let’s take a hypothetical situation.

    A football team (of whatever code you prefer) has a clearly outstanding player. They make him captain of the team and he leads them to a premiership to the rapture of the clubs members and supporters. His fans raise him to almost cult leader status.

    As the next season progresses the team has a bit of a slump and it’s captain is not playing his best.

    The team resolves that it may be time to give someone else a go as captain to see if that will give the side a lift. This disappoints the star players fans who remain loyal to him but hey, it’s still their team and they maintain their support.

    The team fails to improve overall but the star player starts to regain form and is performing well to the delight of his fans.

    Questions:

    1. Should the team change captains again?
    2. Should they throw out their star player?
    3. Should they feel pleased their star player has regained form and harness his capabilities to benefit the team?

    It seems to me there are a few here who would favour option 1. Evan springs to mind.

    There are others who would pick option 2 and toss out the star player. This strikes me as the worst possible option and yet seems to be favoured by quite a number here.

    The rational course of action is option 3 and it requires a bit of effort on the part of all to mend bridges, soothe hurt feelings, and make the best possible use of the star player and get on with winning the next grand final.

    The best captain is not necessarily the best player. The captain needs to bring out the best in the team and use all the available talents to the overall benefit of the team. Shunning the star player for whatever reason will not help.

  41. rua

    Good pick up. Animals Australia is not above playing silly buggers with the truth.

    I do hope the industry which was excoriating the Labor Government only days ago realizes that, if they are not very careful, they will end up with no live trade at all. IMHO there is no political gain for Labor in this issue. Most Australian people do not support a live trade. The Labor vote in the live cattle industry participants would be close to zero. The union movement wants to kill it stone dead.

  42. [farrm51 Malcolm Farr
    Tony Abbott says a loss in a carbon price plebescite won’t change his policy: bit.ly/mLjqrZ
    ]

  44. Still waiting to see direct quotes, Boerwar. Googled and failed, at a guess.

    Lizzie I think many here also fall for the spin. Not surprising because it is pervasive. No media advisor can fix that.

  45. SK
    Do I detect a glimmer of hope? Has Mr Morrison taken a step too far into Malaysia? Has Mr Abbott taken a step too far in demanding a $60 million plebiscite to which he himself will not listen?

  46. “A tax is a tax is a tax.”

    Utter rubbish.

    Joe2. Can you buy a tax on the open market? IOW, could you buy a couple of hundred units of the GST, when the cost per unit is low, then wait for (you hope) an inevitable rise in good times? What about UK’s VAT? Or units of a Russian tax – say a Mining Tax? What about US Income tax – 10,000 units?

    Of course you can’t!

    Can you buy Carbon Credits on GlobalOpen markets? Could you, eg look up NZ’s on the Internet? Well, yes! http://www.carbonnews.co.nz/ Note the comment (below) on this page http://www.carbonnews.co.nz/story.asp?storyID=5443

    [The buyer-seller stalemate was broken this week, with a flurry of activity causing the NZU price to move lower, Westpac reports.]

    Look for general information on European Union prices @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading#European_Union then scroll down to Carbon Market On the same page, US renewable energy certificates are also discussed.

    There’s more detailed Carbon pricing @ http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.1547132 Check out these links on the page – I haven’t embedded them as they’re so easy to access.

    [* Carbon Market News Service provides a comprehensive market intelligence tool that allows subscribers to keep up-to-date with the latest developments and prices in the world’s carbon markets and includes:

    Carbon Market News Online
    Carbon Market Daily
    Carbon Market Europe (Also available as a single product)
    CDM & JI Monitor (Also available as a single product)
    Online price data
    CITL Search
    Carbon Market North America (FREE)]
    The trading range for the week was $19.45 to $19.85 on a spot basis.]

    A tradeable commodity is NOT a tax, because taxes are government revenue. Carbon Credits are PRICED, because, esp as parts of an ETS, they are a tradeable commodity -like shares, bonds, metals & minerals, livestock etc.

    So who’s getting lied to about a Carbon TAX, eh? Or, for that matter, that Carbon Pricing, first step of an ETS, is a TRADEABLE COMMODITY? And exactly who are doing the lying, Joe?

    You have the Internet. Check the above leads & find out for yourself what Carbon pricing is all about. You might even consider why you’ve been lied to; why have you not been told the truth about Carbon pricing, and why you would continue listening to lies when The truth is out there on the Web.

    You don’t strike me as fitting WS Gilbert’s famous lines (HMS Pinafore) I always voted at my party’s call,: And I never thought of thinking for myself at all.

  47. Boerwar,

    It is one thing playing politics on the local stage, but airing your dirty laundry on a world stage AND going to visit someone to criticise them is just bloody rude.

    I can’t imagine that has any possibility of playing out well. Plus I am sure we have an indo consulate here so it isn’t like they aren’t going to hear what he has to say about them.

  48. [geeksrulz geeksrulz
    Plebiscite, latest stunt from Stunt Central also known as LIberalHQ. Crash or Crash through Tony: Great Stuntman but no Statesman #auspol
    ]

  49. [Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s push for a non-binding, multi-million-dollar plebiscite on the carbon tax is a “last-minute stunt” and a “dummy spit”, according to House Leader Anthony Albanese.]

    I think the coalition have over-reached here. Esp if Tone says he wouldn’t take the plebiscite results on board.

  50. Boerwar: the point has been made a number of times that the Coalition’s undoing will be hubris.

    Now, by rights that should happen, but like everything at the moment it is in the laps of our benighted media. If they decide to stick the knife in then maybe we might see the narrative start to change.

    But I wouldn’t bet on it. Hope does, however, spring eternal 😀

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