The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll shows little change on the previous result from a fortnight ago. It again presents the poll blog headline writer with a difficulty in showing a huge disparity between the two-party results according to respondent allocation (54-46 in the Coalition’s favour) and by the generally favoured method of allocation according to the previous election result (51.5-48.5). On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 36 per cent, the Coalition is up a point to 45.5 per cent and the Greens are down one to 12 per cent. The poll combines results from the previous two weekends of polling, covering a sample of 1746.
The first rumblings of preselection action for the current federal electoral cycle:
• Michael McKenna of The Australian noted last month that Mal Brough has been “working the party hierarchy and branches” with an eye to succeeding Peter Slipper as member for Fisher. Slipper’s chances of hanging on to LNP preselection, which were presumably already slim after his acceptance of the government’s offer of the Deputy Speaker position after the election, are said to have vanished altogether after he conducted a six-week tour of Europe and Morocco in the lead-up to the budget. This is said to have given powerful impetus to a party recruitment drive by Mal Brough, “who hopes to triple membership numbers and overwhelm Slipper’s local supporters”.
• The other development in Queensland LNP preselection jockeying is a push for Nationals veteran Bruce Scott, who has held the seat of Maranoa since 1990, to make way for Barnaby Joyce. Weighing in to support the idea was Niki Savva of The Australian, who said the existing plan for Joyce to cross the border and take on Tony Windsor in New England was looking an “increasingly bad idea”. By way of explanation, Savva offered that Windsor has been “sandbagging his seat” with “large dollops of lard from the Labor government”, a mixed metaphor crying out for a response from Bernard Woolley. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Richard Torbay, popular state independent member for Northern Tablelands and former Legislative Assembly Speaker, was “likely to contest the federal seat as an independent should Mr Windsor not stand”.
• Christian Kerr of The Australian reports a flood of membership applications has been received in Phillip Ruddock’s electorate of Berowra, as part of a move by “factional forces linked to the conservative Catholic group Opus Dei” who hope to control the preselection upon Ruddock’s retirement. Liberal sources speak of 88 applications in three weeks, of which “many have direct links with Opus Dei through the Tangara School for Girls and Redfield College and their parent organisation, PARED, or Parents for Education”. Ruddock himself however reportedly hopes to be succeeded by the factionally unaligned Julian Lesser, Menzies Research Centre director and 2008 preselection candidate for Bradfield. To this end he is resisting the recent membership encroachment, seeking to block the applications of brother and sister Christian and Sam Ellis, who respectively ran against Ruddock as Family First candidates in 2010 and 2007. The first hints of rising Right power in the electorate came in 2009, when there was talk of either Hunters Hill councillor Richard Quinn or former Young Liberals president Noel McCoy assuming the seat with backing from Right potentate David Clarke.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports a preselection battle looms between Victorian Liberal Senators Helen Kroger and Scott Ryan for the second position on the ticket at the next election. In 2007, Kroger was elected from the second position and Ryan from the third, but Ryan has since risen above Kroger on the pecking order by virtue of attaining a shadow parliamentary secretary position. Both have traditionally been associated with the Kroger-Costello faction (Helen Kroger being the ex-wife of powerbroker Michael Kroger), but both of its principals are now said to exist above the fray of factional politics.
• Jessica Wright of the Sunday Age reported last week that Attorney-General and Barton MP Robert McClelland had been told by “factional organisers” he should step aside to avoid a “messy preselection brawl”. An improbable sounding line-up of possible successors has been mentioned around the place, including Paul Howes, Morris Iemma and Mark Arbib (the latter two named by the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader). Howes at least has since taken a step back, which sources say resulted from a “widely held view in the national executive that he had been tainted in the eyes of voters over the Rudd coup”.
• The Sunshine Coast Daily reports on a “conga line” of 11 candidates hoping for Liberal National Party preselection in Fairfax, current member Alex Somlyay having long ago made it clear the present term would be his last. The only one covered in the article was Peter Yeo, a former AFL and SANFL who became a quadriplegic after a fall in 2002.
Post-NSW election detritus:
• Labor vacancies in the NSW Legislative Council, created by the retirements of Eddie Obeid and John Hatzistergos, have been filled by Walt Secord, a former staffer to Kevin Rudd and Bob Carr, and Adam Searle, former mayor of Blue Mountains. Searle in particular has had a complicated journey to parliament: originally associated with the “soft Left”, he won the backing of the Right for the Blue Mountains preselection before the 2007 state election against “hard Left” rival Naomi Perry, but the situation was defused after the party drafted Rural Fire Service chief Phil Koperberg. He subsequently joined the Right during his bid to succeed Bob Debus as member for Macquarie, but he withdrew from the contest as it became clear the Left’s Susan Templeman would prevail (though in the event she was defeated by Liberal member Louise Markus). The anointment of Secord and Searle by the Right has caused outgoing Senator Steve Hutchins to quit the faction, apparently complaining it had become “little more than a job agency for party hacks” – though it may not be immediately clear why this appellation applies to them more than him.
• Pauline Hanson continues to pursue an appeal against her narrow defeat in the Legislative Council election. Her case rests on an allegation that “dodgy staff” deliberately misplaced 1200 votes, which was allegedly the subject of an email exchange between two officials at the NSW Electoral Commission. As AAP reports, these emails have been made available to Hanson via a Queensland construction worker who says they were forwarded to him by a girlfriend who works at the NSWEC, whom the mysterious construction worker is unwilling to identify. According to the ABC, Electoral Commissioner Colin Barry says “nothing has been shown to him suggesting the allegation has any substance”.
Miscellany:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has released a report into informal voting at last year’s federal election, at which the rate shot up to 5.5 per cent – 1.6 per cent higher than in 2007, and the worst result since voters were befuddled by the introduction of above-the-line voting in the Senate in 1984. Exactly half of the increase was accounted for by a doubling of ballot papers left entirely blank, from 0.8 per cent to 1.6 per cent. Many have blamed/thanked Mark Latham, who in his late-campaign report on 60 Minutes recommended voters do just that.
• Antony Green has published estimated margins for the Victorian federal redistribution, which he was unable to attend to at the time the boundaries were first published as they appeared in the middle of the election campaign.
• Draft boundaries for a Western Australian state redistribution will be announced next week. I’ll be having quite a lot to say about this soon, and hope to have estimated margins of my own published in fairly short order after the announcement.
• Former ACT Chief Minister Jon Stahope’s parliamentary vacancy in his seat of Ginninderra has been filled by Chris Bourke following a recount of the votes which got Stanhope elected in 2008. Bourke scored 323 votes to 247 for Labor colleague Adina Cirson. The other Labor candidate from the election, David Peebles, did not nominate as he has taken up a job as Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands.
• Canada’s Conservative government, which moved from minority to majority at last month’s election, is moving to reform the country’s Senate, a weakly empowered chamber which has hitherto been chosen by appointment. The plan is to choose by popular election members serving very long terms, of perhaps as much as 12 years, by a method to be determined at provincial level. Among the hurdles it faces are opposition from the government of Quebec, which is “concerned that elected senators would usurp provincial governments as the foremost representatives of their citizens”; opposition from those who believe the chamber should be abolished, which is apparently a constitutional impossibility; and legal issues resulting from variability in provincial rules for election.
• Malcolm Mackerras wrote last week that he was “quite confident in predicting there will be no by-elections during the current term”, since “Members of Parliament do not die these days”. I thought this rather a big call. The Sydney Morning Herald had this last year:
But what can be run through the abacus is the likelihood of one of the 150 MPs elected last month to the House of Representatives keeling over. And without sticking pins in any particular voodoo doll, the risk is high.
Story continues below According to Michael Sherris, professor of actuarial studies at the University of NSW, there is every chance Ms Gillard’s wafer-thin majority will be threatened with a byelection that would become an unwanted referendum on her government.
”I would be pretty confident there’s likely to be someone die in the next three years – what we don’t know is who it will be,” he said.
The average age of our new crop of MPs – both men and women – is a smidgin under 50, suggesting, said Professor Sherris, a 75 per cent chance one of the 150 will die in office, with cancer and heart disease the most likely killers. Body surfers among them will doubtless be directed to swim between the flags.
History tips the balance even more in favour of a state funeral. Professor Sherris points out that in Australia’s federal history there have been on average 1.5 deaths causing byelections in each Parliament.
Highlights from the latest Democratic Audit Update:
• Melbourne University Press will this month publish a book entitled Electoral Democracy: Australian Prospects, edited by Joo-Cheong Tham, Brian Costar and Graeme Orr, which will examine “pressing debates about the regulation of political finance, parties and representation in Australia”.
• Submissions are invited for the Victorian parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee’s inquiry into the November state election.
• The Queensland Parliament last month passed legislation imposing caps on political donations and electoral expenditure, and raising public funding of parties and candidates.
feeney:
Good to see you again!
I have to agree with your comment. I’ve been saying for ages now that Harry tries to appeal to a mythical reason within the opposition, and just gets played by them for a fool because the opposition are impervious to reason. He issues warnings but fails to follow through with them upon further breach of his orders.
Today was a shambles. Constant chatter when ministers are answering questions, laughter from the opps when Harry reminded the chamber that a warning was a precursor to naming, continued POOs from Pyne when the same POO had already been ruled out of order. It’s a farce I’m afraid, and the only resolution I can see is for him to resign.
Further to my post at @147, I recall a Galaxay poll ( I think ) taken after the floods showing 60-62% of people were happy with her response during the floods.
CC announcement and liar, liar I really do believe.
Confessions: yes, 50+% of voters are women, but they are often the worst offenders when it comes to placing looks above ability.
On the other hand, there are plenty of men who are pissed off at the way the PM is not judged on her ability to do the job, but rather on her appearance.
It may well be the two demographics cancel each other out …
confessions
Be careful what you wish for. If he resigns, the odds are another Labor MP may be required to take the role. Who could that be?
Let’s see if the Rabbott & his depressive band of followers attack the Catholic church.
😀
I is gone! 🙂
Dee
See you later
Clarke and Dawe did Joe Hockey tonight.
Doyley
Agreed. The govt’s popularity tanked with the announcement of the carbon tax.
[Harry tries to appeal to a mythical reason within the opposition, and just gets played by them for a fool because the opposition are impervious to reason. ]
Not only reason, but they don’t appear to understand decency or fairness either, the qualities Harry shows them in abundance. I like Harry (have corresponded with him and he always gives considered, thoughtful replies) so I think, for his sake and for the sake of order in the House, it’s time for him to start treating the spoilt Coalition hooligans in the manner that their contemptible conduct warrants.
Gg
I’ll leave it here too, but while I know you would never apologise to me however wrong you are, you should be aware that you made an accusation of criminal behaviour without any foundation whatsoever. For your reference I link section 115 of the Copyright Act 1968:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca1968133/s115.html
The lesson is probably not to speak out of your arsehat just because someone has posted material about the carry-on of Belinda Neal and the NSW right.
[victoria
Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 8:45 pm | Permalink
Doyley
Agreed. The govt’s popularity tanked with the announcement of the carbon tax.
]
didn’t Howard suffer a similar hit when he announced the GST ?
Deee,
I mentioned last night that the support for Abbott on the CT was goiing all sotto voce apart from Barnaby.
Methinks everyone knows the debate is over and the Libs under Abbott lost.
Rummel, I am very deeply confused. Gillard is “JWH in a dress” on asylum seekers, and Rudd is damned because he “refused to negotiate with the greens about the ETS”. That much I get. But you also tell us that Labor’s only supporters are “GW fanatics”, a carbon tax should be opposed because it will produce “zip change to the temp”, and Gillard’s “only saving grace is she is not a green, but she gets close rolling in the grass with them on every issue”. If there’s a coherent narrative running through any of this, I’m very curious to know what it is.
JV,
You might say that. I couldn’t possibly comment.
It’s up to William whether your disgraceful post remains.
[If there’s a coherent narrative running through any of this, I’m very curious to know what it is.]
S/He doesn’t like Gillard?
Its Time,
Brilliant!
[If there’s a coherent narrative running through any of this, I’m very curious to know what it is.]
It’s a 2GB listenr/producer/presenter 🙂
[ If there’s a coherent narrative running through any of this, I’m very curious to know what it is.]
I’d say it’s just excuses and spin to not acknowledge the effect of elephant in the room – namely among the most one-sided media in the English-speaking world.
victoria:
I commented before wondering who on Labor’s side would replace Harry. I genuinely don’t know. Failing Slipper, perhaps Tone would agree to Bronnie being given the gong? 😀
Doyley
I did not say JG was bad or particularly wooden.
Fact is that Anna was stunningly good and Julia did not look good by comparison – No one and certainly no one without a very clear action role had a chance to shine. In hind sight (and it is easy to be right in hind sight) Julia should have stayed in Canberra and been seen on the phone organising funding, rather than offering tea and sympathy.
My own feeling is that the media focuses on silly sexist and personal issues when there is nothing else major to discuss. After all they discussed tony’s lycra and budgies as well as Julia’s clothes. I am not letting the media off the hook because they (Australian and even the ABC) are out to get the labor gov, but I argue that it is too easy to blame sexism, and too easy to ignore more major issues if it is all put down to sexism.
[OwenJones84 Owen Jones
by ionstp
I love reading tweets from @ToryPressHQ aka the Ministry of Truth. It’s like walking into a parallel universe
]
[It may well be the two demographics cancel each other out …]
One has the ability to scream louder than the other, has the power of the mainstream behind it, and judging from the column space we saw in the news ltd press, has a vehicle with which to pass its views over as mainstream.
Also for Kraken@112.
Britain’s planned low-carbon future was covered by Lateline but completely ignored by ABCNews services. Given the debate here on climate change measures that was an obvious failure to inform.
[If there’s a coherent narrative running through any of this, I’m very curious to know what it is.]
It’s called ‘say anything to stir the pot’, William.
“Failing Slipper, perhaps Tone would agree to Bronnie being given the gong?”
She’d make everyone stay in for playtime just because someone was naughty.
I heard Michael Pachi on 3AW News say how desperate Labor was re the CT. So desperate they’ve dragged out Bob Hawke to sell it and called on religious leaders to help out. The bloke wouldn’t know how to give a balanced report.
[Would Slipper still want the gig?]
Slipper has a long history of feathering his own nest, and it amazing he has lasted this long as he makes fullsome use of entitlements. the Speaker job would be a fitting way for him to leave on top – many are sure that he would carry the role out in the Independent Westminster tradition.
[Gary
Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 9:06 pm | Permalink
If there’s a coherent narrative running through any of this, I’m very curious to know what it is.
It’s called ‘say anything to stir the pot’, William.
]
and William wonders why we complain about his cries of this place being an “Echo Cghamber” – when we have Brummell as a fine example of “Conservative Commentry”.
NOT.
[I commented before wondering who on Labor’s side would replace Harry. I genuinely don’t know. Failing Slipper, perhaps Tone would agree to Bronnie being given the gong? ]
If only Windsor wanted the job. He’d do a good job.
Confessions
Thanks for welcoming me back. Hope to stay longer this time.
Agree with you about Harry. The Opposition just laugh at him because they know he won’t follow through and enforce a ruling. Today’s performance by Harry was embarassing, to say the least.
It’s difficult to hear Ministers giving answers, it’s obviously a clear Opposition disruptive strategy, and all Harry does is warn them and laugh and carry on. He really is not a person who should be Speaker.
Let’s face the brutal truth: He became Speaker as his father was Speaker back in the 80s, just as he succeded his father as an MP. He really doesn’t offer much to the House apart from being a “good bloke”.
He faced a pre-selection challenge last election, and he should again this election. After all, he’s been there since 1986 and he should announce his retirement at the next election, and make way for someone who can offer something new – perferably not his son (if he has one) or a party hack!!!
The fact that solar power costing half that of coal produced power sure makes compensation look good for battlers and the comunity as a whole.
Putting the pressure on the coal barrons my make it happen a little sooner but it makes the lieberals scare tactics look sick.
Thank dog that the government is always spruiking solar, they must be up with the play.
[What’s driving these changes? There are two factors. First, solar cell manufacturers are learning – much as computer chip manufacturers keep learning – how to reduce the cost to fabricate solar.
Second, the efficiency of solar cells – the fraction of the sun’s energy that strikes them that they capture – is continually improving. In the lab, researchers have achieved solar efficiencies of as high as 41 percent, an unheard of efficiency 30 years ago. Inexpensive thin-film methods have achieved laboratory efficiencies as high as 20 percent, still twice as high as most of the solar systems in deployment today.
What do these trends mean for the future? If the 7 percent decline in costs continues (and 2010 and 2011 both look likely to beat that number), then in 20 years the cost per watt of PV cells will be just over 50 cents
The cost of solar, in the average location in the U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9 years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts of America.
10 years later, in 2030, solar electricity is likely to cost half what coal electricity does today. Solar capacity is being built out at an exponential pace already. When the prices become so much more favorable than those of alternate energy sources, that pace will only accelerate………………………………………………………………………
The exponential trend in solar watts per dollar has been going on for at least 31 years now. If it continues for another 8-10, which looks extremely likely, we’ll have a power source which is as cheap as coal for electricity, with virtually no carbon emissions. If it continues for 20 years, which is also well within the realm of scientific and technical possibility, then we’ll have a green power source which is half the price of coal for electricity.]
http://www.opednews.com/populum/linkframe.php?linkid=132510
Fear not peoples I am sure Murdochs papers will scream headlines “Carbon Christians , filthy rich untaxed organisations telling poor battler families to pay tax”
“If only Windsor wanted the job. He’d do a good job.”
He would be wasted.
[many are sure that he would carry the role out in the Independent Westminster tradition.]
The admittedly few occasions I’ve seen him in the Speakers chair I’ve been impressed. I also happen to think he’d take the offer, given it’s unlikely he will retain his seat next election.
William
“Labor’s only supporters are “GW fanatics”my mistake for not making clear, my family are GW fanatics.
Yes i would suspect you are confused, as i support a number of green policys such as no grazing in high country(and thank Labor for stoping it) and marine parks through to Liberal Stop the boats.
My narrative is im a current ex Labor voter (even handed out how to votes for Kev 07)
Who lost faith in Kev and the Labor. Now i support whatever policy i think is right not what party is offering it up. aka.
Abbotts direct action is a great waste of money and will do nothing to change the climate and should be aborted
Gillard is a liar and i would prefer to waste taxpayers $$ then have labor make me pay for for a feel good action of GW that won’t do a thing.
Labor is worse then Libs on refugees with live cattle export to Malaysia and should copy Howard’s pacific solution to the letter to shut the Libs up and stoping the boats while doubling our refugee intake.
I really dont have any reason to support gillard gov as she knifed my vote so im just floating about in abbott corner as there is only one side of right.
All this anti Harry stuff is absolute cobblers. Harry basically has to keep the Parliament going regardless of the mix of personalities and ideologies. As someone has said previously, “There is an awful lot of legislation passing despite the nonsense”.
He’s actually a cult hero among the young and disinterested because he plays the game straight.
I’m sure his confidence has been dented this week due to a completely ‘dickhead” move by Oakshott. But, with a weeks rest and a few pep talks from some friends will see him back on his game.
However, if his authority is questioned again, he will walk and then Abbott has serious problems.
[My narrative is im a current ex Labor voter (even handed out how to votes for Kev 07)
Who lost faith in Kev and the Labor. Now i support whatever policy i think is right not what party is offering it up. aka.]
THat’s straight out of the 2GB Playbook.
You don’t fool me one little bit.
[I really dont have any reason to support gillard gov as she knifed my vote so im just floating about in abbott corner as there is only one side of right.]
are you into helium as well
😉
feeney:
I had hoped that the recent vote of no confidence in the Speaker, and subsequent vote of confidence from the leaders would give Harry cause to toughen up. He had seen that Tone was terrified about him resigning, so why not exploit that and push for order and respect?
Alas, today and yesterday was more of the same disrespect – even more so when you factor in the Lib backbenchers laughing at him when he declared a warning is a precursor to naming.
Very embarrassing.
Rummel,
Dont follow..you would rather waste $ on Abbotts DA which does nothing , rather than pay for feel good of GW that wont do a thing…?
[Labor is worse then Libs on refugees with live cattle export to Malaysia]
That’s not bad though – a nice juxtaposition.
[My narrative is im a current ex Labor voter (even handed out how to votes for Kev]
Kev was all over an ETS and you don’t want one. Get off the grass.
[Labor is worse then Libs on refugees with live cattle export to Malaysia]
This says it all really.
[Gary
Posted Thursday, June 2, 2011 at 9:29 pm | Permalink
My narrative is im a current ex Labor voter (even handed out how to votes for Kev
Kev was all over an ETS and you don’t want one. Get off the grass.
]
He can’t get his story straight – he is like those “I used to Vote ALP” muppets on 2GB etc.
They cannot lie to save themselves.
Frank,
Be positive..say something like
“I”ve voted Liberal my whole life and worked in the barber shop where they trimmed JH eyebrows..I still sleep with them under my pillow…and TA lied , and upset my sensitivity ….so I will never vote for them again.
You hear them all when you really do hand out how to votes…sorry Rummel, I’m with Frank on that one..take your hand off it.
[“I”ve voted Liberal my whole life and worked in the barber shop where they trimmed JH eyebrows..I still sleep with them under my pillow…and TA lied , and upset my sensitivity ….so I will never vote for them again.]
I am so using that next time i get on #ohmike
I dips me lid arunta
🙂
Cuppa @ 68
[If you remove the media from the equation, he wouldn’t have been able to do a thing. It’s they, not him, that deserve the ‘credit’ for where the Liberals are at the moment. In saying that, there is no clear line between the Coalition and the media; the two verge together seamlessly on fronts such as talkback radio and much of the ABC’s political coverage.]
Indeed. The Murdoch Circus and their lapdogs in the hollow ABC serve a dual purpose in sustaining what should be an unsustainable campaign of fear mongering by Tony Abbott, firstly by failing to hold Abbott and his coalition of charlatans to account for the manifestly untrue assertions made daily, nay hourly by them on a raft of important policy issues like Climate Change and the Carbon Tax, asylum seekers, the MRRT, blah, blah, blah …. the list is endless.
Secondly, by continually misreporting, under-reporting or plain old not reporting the facts as laid out by the Government on all of these issues, the mainstream media do our nation a disservice by depriving citizens, many of whom are too lazy or indifferent to keep themselves informed by alternative media, of a balanced and objective analysis of the merits of the conflicting views on these matters of public importance.
This is the essence of the media’s job, indeed it is what the word ‘media’ means – an intermediary, or agency by which transfer is accomplished, in this case, of information. The partisan and subjective reporting of the facts by the Murdoch Circus, and the incompetent and ill-informed regurgitation of this pigswill of misinformation by the feckless ABC damages our democracy and starves the nation of a well informed and engaged electorate.
The concentration of so much power to influence public discourse in the hands of a few reactionary media barons, their lickspittle employees and the vested and moneyed interests that support them is a danger to our nation’s political health and wellbeing, and it is high time for re-regulation of media interests in this country. One can only hope that The Greens will force on the Government a Senate Enquiry into the role of the MSM after 1st July to uncover this pit of ordure suppurating on on our nation’s doorstep.
Thanks Gus.,Im honoured.
Arunta,
I shall keep my hand off it, and you can call me right wing!
Hear Hear Big Ship.