Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.
I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not? This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.
Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.